Equifax
EFX
$192.62
+0.11%
Equifax, Incorporated is a leading global data, analytics, and technology company that provides credit reporting, credit scoring, and workforce solutions to businesses and consumers. As one of the three major credit bureaus in the United States, alongside Experian and TransUnion, Equifax holds a dominant position in the credit information industry, with a significant portion of revenue derived from its Workforce Solutions segment. The current investor narrative centers on the company's recovery from a cyclical downturn in mortgage and auto lending, with recent quarterly results showing accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion. Additionally, Equifax is investing in AI-driven analytics and new product innovations to differentiate itself in a competitive market, while navigating regulatory scrutiny and macroeconomic headwinds that have pressured its stock price over the past year.…
EFX
Equifax
$192.62
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy EFX Today?
Based on the analysis, I rate Equifax as a Hold. The consensus analyst rating is 'Buy' with an average price target of $210.52, implying a 9.3% upside, but the stock's high trailing valuation and cyclical risks temper enthusiasm. The thesis is that Equifax is a quality business with a strong market position, but its near-term growth is tied to the lending cycle, and the current price already reflects much of the recovery.
Sign up to view all
EFX 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Equifax's revenue acceleration and margin expansion are positive, but the high trailing valuation and cyclical risks temper enthusiasm. The stock is likely to trade in line with the market, with upside dependent on sustained growth and rate cuts. I would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth exceeds 15% and the forward PE remains below 20x, or downgrade to bearish if growth falls below 10% or the stock breaks below $170.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Equifax's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $211.52 and implied upside of +9.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$211.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+9.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$179 - $245
Analyst target range
Equifax is covered by 21 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.83 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $210.52, implying an upside of approximately 9.3% from the current price of $192.62. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the consensus leans bullish, with recent actions from firms like UBS, Needham, and Mizuho all maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings.
Bulls vs Bears: EFX Investment Factors
Equifax presents a mixed picture: strong revenue acceleration and margin expansion are offset by a high trailing valuation and significant cyclical and regulatory risks. The bull case is supported by accelerating growth, analyst optimism, and robust free cash flow, while the bear case highlights the stock's underperformance, high leverage, and sensitivity to lending cycles. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls, as the forward PE of 18.98x is reasonable if growth persists, but the key tension is whether the cyclical recovery is sustainable or if macro headwinds will derail it. The most critical factor is the trajectory of mortgage and auto lending volumes, which will determine if the revenue growth rate can be maintained.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.35% YoY to $1.6489B, up from 7.5% growth in Q1 2025, indicating a strong cyclical recovery in mortgage and auto lending. This acceleration is broad-based, with Workforce Solutions up to $683.1M and US Consumer Information Solutions at $605.6M.
- Margin Expansion Driving EPS Growth: Operating margin improved to 17.4% in Q1 2026 from 16.4% in Q1 2025, while net income rose to $171.5M from $133.1M. The forward PE of 18.98x implies the market expects significant EPS growth, supported by a 14.35% revenue increase and operating leverage.
- Analyst Consensus is Buy: With 21 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Buy' (mean score 1.83) and the average price target is $210.52, implying ~9.3% upside from the current price of $192.62. Recent actions from UBS, Needham, and Mizuho maintain Buy or Outperform ratings, reflecting confidence in the recovery.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: TTM free cash flow is $1.139B, providing ample capacity for debt reduction, dividends, and share buybacks. The dividend yield of 0.87% is modest but sustainable, with a payout ratio of 35.3%.
Bearish
- Stock Underperforming Market: EFX is down 21.52% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 20.48%, a relative underperformance of 42 percentage points. This reflects persistent investor concerns about cyclical exposure and regulatory risks, despite the recent bounce.
- High Valuation on Trailing Earnings: The trailing PE is 40.48x, well above the market average, indicating that the stock is priced for perfection. The PEG ratio of 4.12x suggests that the growth is not cheap, and any earnings miss could trigger a de-rating.
- Cyclical Sensitivity to Lending: A significant portion of revenue is tied to mortgage and auto lending, which are highly sensitive to interest rates. If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, mortgage volumes could remain depressed, limiting revenue growth. The beta of 1.296 indicates higher volatility than the market.
- Regulatory and Data Privacy Risks: As a credit bureau, Equifax faces intense regulatory scrutiny, especially after the 2017 data breach. New regulations on data usage and consumer privacy could increase compliance costs and limit business practices, impacting margins.
EFX Technical Analysis
Equifax's stock has been in a pronounced downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -21.52%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +20.48% gain. The current price of $192.62 sits at approximately 71% of its 52-week range, closer to the low of $150.75 than the high of $271.84, indicating that the stock remains in a bearish phase despite a recent bounce. This positioning suggests that investors are still cautious, but the stock may be finding a base after a prolonged decline.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$151-$272
Price range past year
Annual Return
-21.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EFX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.0% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +17.4% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -2.5% | +11.4% |
| 1y | -21.5% | +18.7% |
| ytd | -10.0% | +12.3% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
EFX Fundamental Analysis
Equifax's revenue has shown a strong recovery, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $1.6489 billion, a 14.35% year-over-year increase, accelerating from the 7.5% growth seen in Q1 2025. The company's revenue segments show broad-based strength, with Workforce Solutions contributing $683.1 million, US Consumer Information Solutions at $605.6 million, and International at $360.2 million. This growth is driven by improving demand in mortgage and auto lending, as well as new product launches, indicating a positive trajectory for the core business.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
53.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is EFX Overvalued?
Given Equifax's positive net income, the most appropriate valuation metric is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 40.48x, while the forward PE is 18.98x, implying that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial increase in EPS, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth. This forward multiple is more reasonable relative to historical norms, but still reflects optimism about the company's recovery.
PE
40.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 28x~73x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. Equifax carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11x, and its current ratio of 0.60x indicates that current liabilities exceed current assets, potentially straining liquidity. Interest expenses of $55.7M in Q1 2026 represent a substantial fixed cost, and if rates rise, this burden could increase. The company's net margin of 10.4% in Q1 2026 is modest, and any revenue shortfall could compress margins further. Additionally, revenue is concentrated in cyclical lending markets, with mortgage and auto volumes highly sensitive to interest rates, making earnings volatile. The high trailing PE of 40.48x leaves little room for error, and a miss in earnings could trigger a sharp de-rating.
FAQ
The key risks are: (1) cyclical risk - revenue is tied to mortgage and auto lending, which could remain weak if rates stay high; (2) financial risk - high debt levels (D/E of 1.11x) and a low current ratio of 0.60x could strain liquidity; (3) competitive risk - fintechs like Upstart are gaining share in AI lending; (4) regulatory risk - data privacy rules could increase costs. The most severe risk is a prolonged downturn in lending, which could push the stock to $150.75, a 21.7% downside.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $200 and $220, with a target of $210.52. The bull case (30% probability) targets $220-$245, driven by rate cuts and strong growth. The bear case (20% probability) targets $150-$180, if the economy weakens. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming revenue growth stays around 10-14%.
EFX is fairly valued based on forward earnings, with a forward PE of 18.98x, which is in line with the market average. However, on trailing earnings, it is expensive at 40.48x, reflecting the market's expectation of strong EPS growth. Compared to peers, the PS ratio of 4.40x is moderate, and the EV/EBITDA of 17.32x is reasonable. The market is pricing in a recovery, but not a boom, so the stock is not a bargain but also not overvalued if growth materializes.
EFX is a good buy for investors who believe the lending cycle will recover and are willing to accept some volatility. The stock offers a 9.3% upside to the average analyst target of $210.52, and the forward PE of 18.98x is reasonable if growth continues. However, the trailing PE of 40.48x and the stock's 21.5% decline over the past year indicate significant risk. It is a better buy for long-term investors than for short-term traders, as the cyclical recovery may take time to play out.
EFX is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its cyclical nature and the time needed for a full recovery in lending markets. The stock has a beta of 1.296, making it volatile in the short term, and its dividend yield of 0.87% is modest. For short-term traders, the stock could offer opportunities around earnings, but the risk is high. Long-term investors can benefit from the company's dominant market position and potential for growth as the economy recovers.