Fluor Corporation
FLR
$49.71
-1.91%
Fluor Corporation is one of the largest global providers of engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication, operations, and maintenance services, operating across three core segments — urban solutions, mission solutions, and energy solutions — serving end markets including oil and gas, chemicals, mining, metals, and transportation, with roughly $15.5 billion in revenue in 2025 and approximately 23,000 employees. As a legacy EPC contractor with a 1957 listing history, Fluor occupies a scale-driven, project-based niche in the Industrials sector rather than a platform or asset-light model, competing for large, lumpy, fixed-price and reimbursable contracts where execution risk is the defining competitive variable. The current investor narrative is dominated by a violent turnaround story: after a catastrophic Q3 2025 loss driven by a $2.19 billion charge tied to its NuScale Power stake and legacy project problems, Fluor has pivoted to a clean, cash-rich, backlog-driven recovery, with Q2 2026 delivering a large earnings beat and a surge in new awards, while activist investor Starboard Value has taken a stake betting on a reaccelerating industrial investment cycle. The debate now centers on whether the post-NuScale, buyback-funded earnings recovery is durable and whether the stock's sharp run already discounts the improvement, with sell-side coverage split between Buy ratings and more cautious Neutral stances.…
FLR
Fluor Corporation
$49.71
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FLR Today?
Rating: Hold. Fluor's consensus analyst rating is 'buy' with an average target price of $61.69, implying 21.7% upside, but the company's trailing financials remain weak with negative EPS, negative net margin, and negative free cash flow. The core thesis is that Fluor is a credible turnaround story with a strengthened balance sheet and a reaccelerating backlog, but the stock has already rallied 16.5% over the past year and now trades at a forward P/E of 15.1x, leaving limited margin of safety until sustained profitability is proven.
Supporting evidence for a constructive stance includes the Q2 2026 revenue growth of 8.8% year-over-year to $4.329 billion, net income of $114 million, and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33. The forward P/E of 15.06x is reasonable compared to the broader market, and the price-to-sales ratio of 0.43 is well below the sector average for engineering and construction peers. Analyst estimates project EPS of $3.91 for the current year, which would represent a significant recovery from the trailing loss, and the consensus target of $61.69 suggests that the sell-side expects the earnings rebound to continue. However, the trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$330 million and the operating margin of -2.34% highlight that the recovery is still in its early stages.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are a renewed project execution failure, a slowdown in industrial capex, and a market rotation away from cyclical stocks. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if Fluor reports two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow and operating margins above 3%, or if the stock pulls back to the $45 level (near the 52-week low of $39.33) while maintaining its backlog. Conversely, a downgrade to Sell would be warranted if revenue growth decelerates below 5%, free cash flow remains negative for another year, or the company announces another large write-down. Relative to its history and peers, Fluor appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued on trailing metrics, but the forward valuation is reasonable if the recovery materializes.
Sign up to view all
FLR 12-Month Price Forecast
Fluor presents a balanced risk-reward profile: the forward valuation is attractive at 15.1x earnings, and the consensus target implies meaningful upside, but the company's trailing financials remain weak with negative margins and cash burn. The Q2 2026 beat and NuScale exit are positive steps, yet one quarter does not establish a durable trend in a historically volatile project business. The stock's high beta and recent underperformance suggest that near-term momentum is negative, and the 52-week low of $39.33 remains a realistic downside reference. I would upgrade to bullish if Fluor delivers two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow and operating margins above 3%, and I would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 5% or another large write-down occurs. For now, a neutral stance is appropriate, with a preference for accumulating on pullbacks toward the $45-48 range.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fluor Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $61.56 and implied upside of +23.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$61.56
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+23.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$50 - $71
Analyst target range
Bulls vs Bears: FLR Investment Factors
The bull case rests on Fluor's successful exit from NuScale, a clean Q2 2026 earnings beat, a low-leverage balance sheet, and a consensus target implying 21.7% upside. The bear case emphasizes the still-negative trailing profitability, extreme earnings volatility, recent relative underperformance, and a valuation that may already price in the recovery. Currently, the bear evidence carries slightly more weight because the company has only one quarter of clean results and trailing free cash flow remains negative at -$330 million. The single most important tension is whether Fluor's backlog and new awards can translate into sustainable positive earnings and cash flow, or whether the Q2 beat was an isolated event in a historically lumpy project cycle. If the next two quarters confirm durable margin expansion and cash generation, the bull case would strengthen materially; if execution stumbles again, the stock could quickly retest its 52-week low.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus sees 21.7% upside: The average analyst target price is $61.69 versus the current price of $50.68, implying 21.7% upside. With 8 analysts covering the stock and a consensus recommendation of 'buy' (mean rating 2.11), sell-side sentiment remains constructive despite the recent pullback.
- Q2 2026 earnings beat with 8.8% revenue growth: Fluor reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.82 on revenue of $4.329 billion, representing 8.8% year-over-year growth. Net income of $114 million marked a sharp reversal from the prior-year loss, and the quarter included a surge in new awards that signals a reaccelerating project pipeline.
- Fortress balance sheet with low leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio is just 0.33 and the current ratio is 1.91, indicating ample liquidity and minimal financial leverage. Fluor also completed the profitable sale of its NuScale Power stake, strengthening its cash position and removing a major source of earnings volatility.
- Attractive forward valuation at 15.1x earnings: The forward P/E of 15.06x is well below the broader market multiple and reasonable for a company with a clean backlog and improving execution. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.43 and EV-to-sales of 0.32 suggest the market is not paying a premium for Fluor's revenue base.
Bearish
- Negative trailing profitability and cash burn: Trailing EPS is -$0.0076, net margin is -0.33%, and operating margin is -2.34%, reflecting the lingering impact of the Q3 2025 $2.19 billion NuScale charge. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is -$330 million, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery.
- Extreme earnings volatility and execution risk: Fluor's quarterly EPS has swung from +$14.93 in Q2 2025 to -$9.52 in Q4 2025 to +$0.82 in Q2 2026, illustrating the lumpy, project-based nature of its business. Fixed-price contracts and legacy project problems remain a recurring risk that can wipe out multiple quarters of progress.
- Recent underperformance versus the market: Over the past month, FLR declined 7.57% while the S&P 500 gained 2.12%, resulting in a relative strength of -9.69%. Over six months, the stock underperformed by 11.60%, suggesting momentum has faded and investors may be taking profits after the sharp run.
- High short interest and beta above 1: The short ratio of 4.5 indicates meaningful bearish positioning, and the beta of 1.28 means the stock is 28% more volatile than the market. In a risk-off environment, this combination can amplify downside moves and lead to sharp drawdowns.
FLR Technical Analysis
Beta
1.28
1.28x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-21.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$58
Price range past year
Annual Return
+13.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FLR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.3% | +1.8% |
| 3m | -2.8% | +3.5% |
| 6m | +2.4% | +11.2% |
| 1y | +13.0% | +19.1% |
| ytd | +19.2% | +14.1% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
FLR Fundamental Analysis
Quarterly Revenue
$4.3B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
4.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-330000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is FLR Overvalued?
PE
-127.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~37x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-23.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Fluor's financial risk profile is dominated by its negative trailing profitability and cash burn. Trailing EPS is -$0.0076, net margin is -0.33%, and operating margin is -2.34%, all reflecting the aftermath of the $2.19 billion NuScale charge in Q3 2025. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is -$330 million, meaning the company is currently consuming cash despite its low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33. While the current ratio of 1.91 provides near-term liquidity, the company's reliance on large, lumpy project awards means a single execution miss or contract dispute could rapidly erode its cash position and force a reassessment of its capital return plans.
Market and competitive risks are elevated by Fluor's premium valuation relative to its own history and its high beta of 1.28. The stock trades at 2.07x book value and 15.1x forward earnings, which may not fully account for the cyclicality of the engineering and construction industry. The recent underperformance—down 7.57% in the past month versus the S&P 500's 2.12% gain—suggests that momentum has turned negative, and a sector rotation away from industrials could accelerate the decline. Additionally, the competitive landscape for large EPC contracts is intense, with peers like Jacobs and AECOM vying for the same projects, and any pricing pressure or cost overruns could compress margins further. The NuScale overhang, while largely resolved through the stake sale, still lingers as a reminder of the risks associated with non-core investments.
In a worst-case scenario, Fluor could face a combination of project execution failures, a slowdown in industrial capex, and a broader market correction. If the company reports another quarterly loss or a significant cash outflow, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $39.33, representing a 22.4% decline from the current price of $50.68. The analyst low target of $50.00 offers little downside protection, and if sentiment turns decisively bearish, the stock could fall below that level toward the 2025 lows. Given the beta of 1.28, a 10% market decline could translate into a 12.8% drop for FLR, and a more severe recession could push the shares down 30-40% from current levels. Investors should be prepared for the possibility of a -22% to -35% drawdown in an adverse scenario.
FAQ
The most severe risk is project execution: a repeat of the Q3 2025 $2.19 billion charge would devastate earnings and cash flow, potentially pushing the stock below $40. Financial risk is also elevated, with trailing free cash flow of -$330 million and negative operating margins, meaning the company is not yet self-funding. Competitive and market risks include a high beta of 1.28, which amplifies market downturns, and the potential for industrial capex to slow if interest rates remain elevated. Finally, company-specific risk includes the loss of key contracts or the departure of Starboard Value's activist support, which could remove a catalyst for operational improvements. These risks are ranked from most to least severe, with execution risk being the primary concern.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: a bull case with 25% probability targeting $65-71, a base case with 55% probability targeting $58-65, and a bear case with 20% probability targeting $39-50. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue growth of 5-8% and operating margins stabilizing around 2.5-3.5%, which would support a price near the analyst average of $61.69. The bull case requires accelerating awards and margin expansion above 4%, while the bear case is triggered by another execution failure or a capex slowdown. The key assumption behind the base case is that Fluor avoids major write-downs and turns free cash flow positive by year-end.
FLR appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued on forward metrics, with a forward P/E of 15.06x and a price-to-sales ratio of 0.43. The EV-to-sales of 0.32 is low compared to many industrial peers, but the trailing P/E is negative due to the NuScale charge, making historical comparisons difficult. The PEG ratio of 1.25 suggests the market is pricing in moderate growth, and the 2.07x book value is not excessive for a company with a strengthened balance sheet. If Fluor hits the estimated EPS of $3.91, the stock would trade at roughly 13x forward earnings, which would be attractive. The market is currently pricing in a successful turnaround but not a dramatic acceleration.
FLR is a reasonable buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a medium-term horizon, given the 21.7% upside to the analyst average target of $61.69 and the forward P/E of 15.1x. However, the trailing financials show negative EPS, a net margin of -0.33%, and free cash flow of -$330 million, so the recovery is not yet proven. The biggest downside risk is a retest of the 52-week low at $39.33, which would represent a 22% loss from the current price. For conservative investors, waiting for two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow would provide a better entry point. Overall, it is a speculative buy on pullbacks, not a slam-dunk at current levels.
FLR is better suited for a medium-to-long-term investment horizon of at least 12-18 months, as the turnaround story needs time to fully materialize and the stock's high beta (1.28) makes it volatile for short-term trading. The company pays no dividend, so returns depend entirely on capital appreciation, and earnings visibility is limited by the lumpy nature of project awards. Short-term traders might exploit volatility around earnings, but the risk of a sharp drawdown is significant. A minimum holding period of one year is recommended to allow for the realization of backlog conversion and margin improvement. Long-term investors should monitor quarterly execution and adjust positions accordingly.