FLY Leasing
FLY
$21.11
+7.32%
Firefly Aerospace Inc is a space and defense technology company that provides comprehensive mission solutions, including launch vehicles and spacecraft systems, to national security, government, and commercial customers. As a vertically integrated player in the Aerospace & Defense industry, it competes with established primes and new-space entrants by offering end-to-end launch and in-orbit services. The current investor narrative centers on the company's rapid revenue growth trajectory, driven by its Spacecraft Solutions segment, but is tempered by persistent net losses, negative free cash flow, and the dilutive impact of a recent public stock offering. Recent news highlights the broader space sector's volatility, with SpaceX's IPO causing capital rotation and sentiment-driven selloffs across public space stocks.…
FLY
FLY Leasing
$21.11
Related headlines
FLY 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FLY Leasing's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $48.11 and implied upside of +127.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$48.11
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+127.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$34 - $65
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 1.56 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy) and an average target price of $48.11, implying a substantial 149.7% upside from the current price of $19.27. The distribution leans bullish, with recent upgrades from Keybanc (Overweight) and maintained Buy ratings from Roth Capital and Jefferies, though Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs remain neutral. The target range spans from a low of $34.00 to a high of $65.00, representing a wide spread of 91% from low to high, indicating significant uncertainty about the company's future. The high target of $65.00 assumes successful execution of the growth strategy, margin expansion, and potential catalysts like NASA lunar contracts, while the low target of $34.00 prices in slower growth, continued losses, and competitive pressures from SpaceX and others. The wide dispersion suggests low conviction among analysts, and the recent public offering and sector headwinds may lead to further target revisions. Given the stock's recent decline, the consensus upside is unusually large, but investors should weigh the high risk of further dilution and operational challenges against the potential reward.
Bulls vs Bears: FLY Investment Factors
Firefly Aerospace presents a high-risk, high-reward profile. The bull case rests on explosive revenue growth (44.8% YoY) and a forward PS ratio (1.62x) that appears deeply undervalued relative to the industry, with analysts seeing 150% upside. However, the bear case is equally compelling: the company is deeply unprofitable (net margin -119.5%), burning cash (TTM FCF -$257.4M), and trades at a trailing PS of 21.26x that is 750% above industry norms. The single most important tension is whether the company can achieve the massive revenue ramp to $2.1B (implied by forward PS) while simultaneously improving margins to reach profitability. If it does, the stock could re-rate significantly; if it stumbles, the current valuation could collapse further. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger due to the deteriorating technical trend and sector headwinds, but the potential reward is substantial for risk-tolerant investors.
Bullish
- Massive Revenue Growth Trajectory: Revenue surged 44.8% YoY to $80.9M in Q1 2026, driven by Spacecraft Solutions. Analysts project $2.1B in FY2026 revenue, implying a forward PS ratio of just 1.62x, a steep discount to the trailing 21.26x and industry average of ~2.5x.
- Strong Analyst Consensus with 150% Upside: 9 analysts rate FLY a Buy (mean 1.56 on 1-5 scale) with an average target of $48.11, representing 149.7% upside from $19.27. Even the low target of $34.00 implies 76.5% upside, suggesting significant mispricing.
- Improving Gross Margins Signal Operating Leverage: Gross margin improved from 3.97% in Q1 2025 to 12.7% in Q1 2026, and further to 15.6% on a trailing basis. This indicates the company is gaining scale and moving toward profitability as revenue grows.
- Healthy Balance Sheet with Low Leverage: Current ratio of 4.51 and debt-to-equity of 0.26 indicate ample liquidity and low financial risk. The company has $992.6M in recent equity issuance to fund growth without straining debt capacity.
Bearish
- Deep and Persistent Net Losses: Net loss of -$96.7M in Q1 2026, with net margin of -119.5%, though improved from -433.5% in Q3 2025. TTM free cash flow is -$257.4M, and ROE is -25.1%, indicating the company is destroying shareholder value.
- Extreme Valuation Premium on Trailing Basis: Trailing PS ratio of 21.26x is 750% above the Aerospace & Defense industry average of ~2.5x. This leaves the stock extremely vulnerable to any revenue miss or growth deceleration.
- Massive Share Dilution from Recent Offering: A $992.6M common stock issuance in Q3 2025 diluted existing shareholders significantly. Shares outstanding grew from 143.6M to 159.6M in one year, a 11% increase, pressuring EPS.
- Sector Headwinds from SpaceX IPO Rotation: SpaceX's IPO has triggered capital rotation out of public space stocks, with FLY down 38.1% in the last month alone. Sentiment-driven selling could persist as investors favor the pure-play leader.
FLY Technical Analysis
FLY is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price declining 18.9% year-to-date and currently trading at $19.27, which is just 26.1% of its 52-week range (low $16.00, high $73.80). The 1-year price change is not directly provided, but the 6-month change of -42.3% and the 52-week high of $73.80 indicate a significant peak-to-trough decline of approximately 74%, placing the stock near its 52-week low and suggesting a deeply bearish sentiment. Short-term momentum is decisively negative, with 1-month and 3-month price changes of -38.1% and -55.9%, respectively, both far underperforming the S&P 500's 1-month return of +0.31% and 3-month return of +4.67%. This accelerating decline relative to the broader market (relative strength 1-month: -38.4%) signals strong selling pressure and a potential capitulation phase, though the divergence from the longer-term downtrend could also indicate a mean-reversion opportunity if the stock stabilizes. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $16.00, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $73.80; a breakdown below $16.00 would signal further downside, while a recovery above $30 could indicate a trend reversal. The stock's beta is not provided, but the high volatility is evident from the 72.2% maximum drawdown, implying significant risk for position sizing.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-72.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$16-$74
Price range past year
Annual Return
—
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FLY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -31.8% | +0.2% |
| 3m | -49.1% | +5.2% |
| 6m | -31.7% | +8.6% |
| 1y | — | +19.0% |
| ytd | -11.2% | +9.7% |
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FLY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has grown rapidly, with Q1 2026 revenue of $80.9 million representing a 44.8% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's $55.9 million, though it decelerated from the 84% growth seen in Q4 2025 ($57.7 million vs. $31.4 million in Q4 2024). The revenue mix is dominated by Spacecraft Solutions ($127.6 million) versus Launch Revenue ($71.1 million), indicating that spacecraft services are the primary growth driver. Despite top-line expansion, the company remains deeply unprofitable, with a net loss of -$96.7 million in Q1 2026 and a net margin of -119.5%, though this is an improvement from -433.5% in Q3 2025. Gross margin improved to 12.7% in Q1 2026 from 3.97% a year earlier, but remains well below industry averages for profitable aerospace firms, reflecting high cost of goods sold and significant R&D spending ($67.5 million in Q1 2026). The company's balance sheet shows a current ratio of 4.51 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, indicating ample liquidity and low leverage, but free cash flow is deeply negative at -$257.4 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, and operating cash flow was -$62.5 million in Q1 2026. ROE is -25.1%, highlighting that the company is destroying shareholder value, and the reliance on external financing (evidenced by a $992.6 million common stock issuance in Q3 2025) raises concerns about sustainability without a clear path to profitability.
Quarterly Revenue
$80879000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+44.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
12.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-257449000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FLY Overvalued?
Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric; the trailing PS ratio is 21.26x, while forward PS (based on estimated revenue of $2.1 billion) is approximately 1.62x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. The gap between trailing and forward PS suggests investors are pricing in a dramatic revenue ramp, which is consistent with the company's growth trajectory but carries high execution risk. Compared to the Aerospace & Defense industry average PS ratio of roughly 2.5x (estimated), FLY's trailing PS of 21.26x represents a 750% premium, though the forward PS of 1.62x would be a discount if revenue estimates are met. This extreme premium reflects the market's pricing of future growth, but also leaves the stock vulnerable to any revenue disappointments. Historically, FLY's PS ratio has ranged from 56.2x (Q1 2026) to 1,042x (Q1 2024), so the current 21.26x is near the low end of its historical band, suggesting that the stock has de-rated significantly from its earlier euphoric levels. This could indicate a value opportunity if the company's growth materializes, or it could reflect deteriorating fundamentals if the revenue ramp fails to achieve profitability.
PE
-10.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-10.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The company's primary financial risk is its inability to generate profits or positive free cash flow. With a net loss of -$96.7M in Q1 2026 and TTM free cash flow of -$257.4M, the company relies on external financing to sustain operations. The recent $992.6M stock offering dilutes existing shareholders and signals that internal cash generation is insufficient. Additionally, gross margin at 12.7% remains well below profitable aerospace peers, indicating high cost of goods sold and significant R&D spending ($67.5M in Q1 2026) that may not yield immediate returns. The negative ROE of -25.1% confirms shareholder value destruction.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock is highly sensitive to sector sentiment, as evidenced by its 38.1% monthly decline amid SpaceX IPO rotation. With a trailing PS of 21.26x versus the industry average of 2.5x, any growth disappointment could trigger severe multiple compression. Competitive threats include SpaceX's dominance and Rocket Lab's Iridium acquisition, which could divert government contracts. Regulatory risks are tied to NASA's lunar program, which is subject to political budget cycles. The stock's beta is not provided, but the 72.2% maximum drawdown indicates extreme volatility.
Worst-Case Scenario: A perfect storm of continued net losses, revenue deceleration below 20% YoY, and further dilution from additional equity offerings could drive the stock to its 52-week low of $16.00. This represents a 17% downside from the current price of $19.27. If the company fails to secure key NASA contracts or faces a launch failure, the stock could fall to $10.00 (analyst low target is $34.00, but a severe scenario could breach that). In such a case, an investor could lose 48% from current levels, approaching the historical max drawdown of 72.2% from the 52-week high of $73.80.