FLY Leasing
FLY
$0.00
+15.49%
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that develops and provides launch vehicles and spacecraft systems, supporting launch, transit, and in-orbit operations for government, commercial, and national security customers. The company operates as a niche player in the Aerospace & Defense industry, focusing on comprehensive mission solutions with the majority of its revenue derived from its Spacecraft Solutions segment. The current investor narrative is heavily influenced by the broader space sector's dynamics, including a reported 'launch squeeze' creating pricing power for providers, and the anticipated transformative impact of SpaceX's planned IPO, which is expected to both validate the sector and intensify competition for capital and contracts.…
FLY
FLY Leasing
$0.00
Related headlines
FLY 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FLY Leasing's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
3 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for FLY is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a recently public, mid-cap growth stock and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus leans bullish, with institutional ratings from firms like Deutsche Bank (Buy) and JP Morgan (Overweight) offset by Goldman Sachs (Neutral) and Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight). The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $2.19 billion, with a range from $2.05 billion (low) to $2.29 billion (high), while the average EPS estimate is $2.54, ranging from $2.32 to $2.69. The wide range in both revenue and EPS targets signals high uncertainty and a lack of strong consensus on the company's near-term financial trajectory, reflecting the inherent unpredictability in the capital-intensive and contract-driven space sector. The high target scenario likely assumes successful execution on major contracts, significant market share gains, and a path to profitability, while the low target may price in execution delays, increased competition, or funding challenges.
FLY Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of 194.99% and a year-to-date gain of 108.33%. With a current price of $49.50, it is trading at approximately 67% of its 52-week range ($16.00 to $73.80), indicating strong momentum but not yet at peak overextension, leaving room for further upside if the trend continues. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong and accelerating, with a 1-month gain of 19.42% and a 3-month surge of 147.75%, far outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of 4.84% and 8.15%. This acceleration from the longer-term trend suggests the stock is experiencing a parabolic move, likely driven by intense sector-specific catalysts and speculative interest, though it also raises the risk of a sharp correction. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $16.00, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $73.80; a breakout above $73.80 would signal a continuation of the powerful bull trend, while a breakdown below the recent consolidation range near $30-$35 could indicate a significant trend reversal. The stock's extreme volatility is highlighted by a maximum drawdown of -72.2% and its massive outperformance versus the market, necessitating careful risk management for investors.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-72.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$16-$74
Price range past year
Annual Return
—
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FLY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +19.4% | +4.4% |
| 3m | +147.7% | +8.5% |
| 6m | +195.0% | +9.7% |
| 1y | — | +28.8% |
| ytd | +108.3% | +9.3% |
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FLY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is volatile but showed a significant year-over-year increase of 173.7% in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025), reaching $57.67 million, up from $21.07 million in the year-ago period. Segment data reveals that Spacecraft Solutions Revenue of $41.27 million is the primary growth driver, significantly outpacing Launch Revenue of $2.20 million for the period, indicating the company's strategic focus and success in its spacecraft business line. This explosive growth trajectory is central to the investment thesis, though it comes from a small base and sustainability is a key question. The company remains deeply unprofitable, with a Q4 2025 net income of -$41.06 million and a gross margin of 17.62%, though this represents a marked improvement from the negative gross margin of -23.1% in Q1 2024. The net margin stands at -71.2% for the quarter, and the trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$237.75 million, underscoring that the business is in a heavy investment phase, burning cash to fund growth and R&D, which totaled $57.57 million in Q4 alone. The balance sheet shows a strong current ratio of 4.51 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, indicating solid liquidity and a low reliance on debt financing. However, the negative Return on Equity of -25.07% and negative Return on Assets of -16.82% reflect the current inefficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity and assets, which is typical for a pre-profitability, high-growth space company.
Quarterly Revenue
$57673000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.73%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.17%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-237750000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FLY Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income of -$41.06 million for Q4 2025, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 21.26x, while the forward PS ratio, based on estimated revenue of $2.19 billion, would be significantly lower, implying the market is pricing in massive revenue growth expectations for the coming year. The Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) ratio of 34.45x provides an alternative, capital-structure-neutral view that also signals a premium valuation for anticipated growth. Compared to industry averages, specific data is not available in the provided dataset, but a PS ratio of 21.26x and an EV/Sales of 34.45x are extremely high by most standards, indicating the stock trades at a substantial growth premium that must be justified by exceptional future execution and market expansion. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from 60.37x at the end of Q4 2025 down to the current 21.26x, suggesting the recent massive price appreciation has been partially offset by even faster growth in the revenue base. Trading well below its recent historical PS peak could be interpreted as the valuation catching up to the growth story, but it remains at a level that demands near-perfect execution to sustain.
PE
-11.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -41x~-8x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-13.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple

