Valeo
FR
$64.15
-2.09%
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, manages, acquires, sells, develops, and redevelops industrial real estate properties across the United States. As a fully integrated industrial REIT, it serves a diverse tenant base including e-commerce, logistics, and manufacturing companies, positioning itself as a key player in the supply chain infrastructure sector. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strong leasing demand driven by e-commerce and supply chain reshoring, with recent quarterly results showing robust revenue growth and improving occupancy rates. Debate remains around the impact of rising interest rates on cap rates and the sustainability of industrial rent growth in a potentially slowing economy.…
FR
Valeo
$64.15
FR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Valeo's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $71.75 and implied upside of +11.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$71.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$61 - $86
Analyst target range
First Industrial Realty Trust is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.0 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $69.38, implying a modest 3.6% upside from the current price of $66.99. The distribution of ratings is not explicitly provided, but the consensus leans bullish, with recent actions from firms like Truist Securities (Buy), Baird (Outperform), and RBC Capital (Outperform) reinforcing positive sentiment. The target price range spans from a low of $61.00 to a high of $83.00, indicating a wide dispersion of views. The high target of $83.00 implies a 23.9% upside and likely assumes continued strong leasing demand, rent growth, and potential multiple expansion. The low target of $61.00 suggests a 8.9% downside, possibly factoring in risks from rising interest rates, economic slowdown, or supply increases. The spread between the low and high targets ($22.00) reflects moderate uncertainty, but the average target close to the current price suggests limited near-term upside expectations. Recent ratings have been stable, with no major downgrades, indicating analyst confidence in the company's fundamentals.
Bulls vs Bears: FR Investment Factors
First Industrial Realty Trust presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The bull case is supported by accelerating revenue growth (9.9% YoY), expanding margins (net margin 73.5%), strong free cash flow ($483M TTM), and a consensus Buy rating from analysts. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation (trailing PE 30.6x vs. sector 22x), has a high payout ratio (93.4%), and faces headwinds from rising interest rates and potential economic slowdown. The single most important tension is whether the company's strong operational momentum can sustain its premium valuation—if revenue growth decelerates or interest rates rise further, the stock could re-rate lower. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the accelerating growth and analyst support, but the limited upside to the average target suggests a neutral-to-modestly bullish outlook.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 9.92% YoY to $194.8M, accelerating from 6.3% in Q4 2025 and 7.8% in Q3 2025, driven by robust leasing demand from e-commerce and logistics tenants.
- Expanding Profit Margins: Net margin surged to 73.5% in Q1 2026 from 27.1% a year ago, while operating margin reached 42.3%, well above the industrial REIT sector average, reflecting strong operational efficiency.
- Healthy Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $483.0M provides a free cash flow yield of ~6.4%, comfortably covering the dividend (payout ratio 93.4%) and supporting future development.
- Analyst Consensus Buy Rating: With 16 analysts, the consensus is Buy (mean recommendation 2.0) and average target $69.38 implies 3.6% upside. Recent upgrades from Truist, Baird, and RBC Capital reinforce positive sentiment.
Bearish
- Premium Valuation vs. Sector Peers: Trailing PE of 30.6x is 39% above the industrial REIT sector average of 22x, and forward PE of 35.4x suggests the market is pricing in aggressive growth expectations that may not materialize.
- High Dividend Payout Ratio: Payout ratio of 93.4% based on trailing earnings leaves limited room for dividend growth or reinvestment, and could be pressured if earnings decline or capital needs increase.
- Interest Rate Sensitivity Risk: As a REIT, FR is sensitive to rising interest rates, which increase cap rates and lower property values. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96x indicates moderate leverage, and higher rates could compress net income.
- Limited Near-Term Upside to Analyst Targets: Average analyst target of $69.38 implies only 3.6% upside from current price of $66.99, and the low target of $61.00 suggests 8.9% downside, indicating limited conviction in significant near-term gains.
FR Technical Analysis
First Industrial Realty Trust is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 33.63% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16.47% gain. The current price of $66.99 sits at 95.9% of its 52-week range ($47.38 to $69.88), indicating the stock is trading near its highs and reflecting strong bullish momentum. This positioning suggests the market is pricing in continued positive fundamentals, though it also raises the risk of a short-term pullback as the stock approaches resistance. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with the stock gaining 5.65% in the past month and 9.16% over the past three months, both outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of 0.78% and 3.50%. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the consistent upward price action and volume of 1.31 million shares suggest strong buying interest. The divergence between the 1-month and 1-year trends is minimal, indicating the uptrend is intact and not showing signs of exhaustion. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $47.38, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $69.88. A breakout above $69.88 would signal a continuation of the uptrend and potentially open the door to further gains, while a breakdown below $47.38 would be a bearish reversal. The stock's beta is not provided, but as a REIT, it typically exhibits lower volatility than the broader market, though interest rate sensitivity can cause periodic swings.
Beta
1.06
1.06x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$47-$70
Price range past year
Annual Return
+33.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.8% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +2.6% | +5.1% |
| 6m | +7.4% | +13.8% |
| 1y | +33.2% | +22.2% |
| ytd | +10.8% | +13.1% |
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FR Fundamental Analysis
First Industrial Realty Trust has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $194.8 million, up 9.92% year-over-year from $177.2 million in Q1 2025. This marks an acceleration from the 6.3% YoY growth seen in Q4 2025 and the 7.8% growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong leasing demand and rent escalations. The company's net income for Q1 2026 was $143.1 million, a significant increase from $48.1 million in Q1 2025, reflecting improved operating performance and higher gains on property sales. Gross margin has been relatively stable around 21% in recent quarters, but the net margin expanded to 73.5% in Q1 2026 from 27.1% a year ago, largely due to higher other income. The company is highly profitable, with a trailing twelve-month net income of $143.1 million and an operating margin of 42.3% in Q1 2026, which is strong for the industrial REIT sector. The balance sheet is healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96 and a current ratio of 1.14, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow for Q1 2026 was $88.9 million, and the trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $483.0 million, providing ample coverage for dividends and capital expenditures. Return on equity (ROE) stands at 9.3%, which is reasonable for a REIT, though it has room for improvement. The company's cash flow generation supports its dividend, with a payout ratio of 93.4% based on trailing earnings, but the free cash flow yield of about 6.4% (based on market cap) suggests the dividend is well-covered.
Quarterly Revenue
$194827000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
21.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$482960000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is FR Overvalued?
Given that First Industrial Realty Trust has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 30.63x, while the forward PE is 35.44x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth to slow or that current earnings are temporarily elevated. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a cautious outlook on near-term earnings momentum. Compared to the industry average, the stock's trailing PE of 30.63x is at a premium to the REIT - Industrial sector average of approximately 22x (based on available data), representing a 39% premium. This premium is partially justified by the company's superior revenue growth (9.9% YoY) and high net margins (73.5%), but it also reflects the market's optimism about industrial real estate demand. Historically, the stock's trailing PE has ranged from about 12x to 57x over the past five years, with the current 30.63x near the midpoint of that range. This suggests the stock is not excessively overvalued relative to its own history, but it is trading above the median, implying that the market is pricing in above-average growth expectations. The price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.84x is also above the historical average, further indicating a premium valuation.
PE
30.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: First Industrial's financial risks include a high dividend payout ratio of 93.4% based on trailing earnings, which limits retained capital for growth and could pressure the dividend if earnings decline. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96x indicates moderate leverage, and interest expense of $25.4M in Q1 2026 (up from $20.4M a year ago) is rising, potentially compressing net income if rates stay high. Additionally, Q1 2026 net income was boosted by $83.8M in other income (likely gains on property sales), which may not be recurring, making earnings less predictable. The current ratio of 1.14x is adequate but not strong, suggesting limited liquidity buffer.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's premium valuation (trailing PE 30.6x vs. sector 22x) exposes it to multiple compression if growth disappoints or interest rates rise. As a REIT, FR is highly sensitive to interest rate changes—higher rates increase cap rates and lower property valuations. The stock's beta is not provided, but REITs typically have moderate market correlation; however, the 33.6% one-year gain already prices in strong fundamentals, leaving little room for error. Competitive risks include new supply of industrial space in key markets, which could pressure occupancy and rent growth. No recent news highlights specific threats, but the macro environment (Fed rate decisions, economic growth) remains the primary external risk.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe recession with rising interest rates and falling industrial demand, FR could see leasing activity slow, occupancy decline, and property values drop. The stock could fall to its 52-week low of $47.38, representing a 29.3% decline from the current price of $66.99. This scenario would likely involve multiple compression (PE contracting to ~20x) and potential dividend cuts if cash flow weakens. The analyst low target of $61.00 implies a more moderate 8.9% downside, but the worst case could be more severe if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate sharply.