GE Vernova
GEV
$808.24
+1.41%
GE Vernova Inc. is a global electric power equipment and services company, spun off from General Electric in March 2024, operating three segments — Power (gas, nuclear, hydroelectric and steam turbines), Wind (onshore and offshore turbines and blades), and Electrification (grid solutions, power conversion, software, and solar/storage) — that together span the full electricity value chain from generation through transmission and storage. As the installed-base leader in heavy-duty gas turbines and a top-tier grid equipment supplier, GEV is best characterized as an incumbent infrastructure platform positioned at the physical chokepoint of the electricity system rather than a disruptor, with roughly 75,000 employees and a market capitalization near $178 billion. The current investor narrative is dominated by the multiyear electricity demand supercycle — driven by data-center load growth, grid hardening, and decarbonization — with recent headlines emphasizing backlog acceleration, margin expansion, a doubled share repurchase authorization, and a strategic acquisition, alongside debate over whether the still-loss-making Wind segment can be turned around and whether the stock's extraordinary run has outrun fundamentals. The stock's sharp recent drawdown despite bullish management commentary has crystallized the central tension: a best-in-class secular growth story now trading at a premium multiple that leaves little room for execution error.…
GEV
GE Vernova
$808.24
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy GEV Today?
Rating: Hold with a constructive bias. The core thesis is that GE Vernova owns the physical chokepoint of the electricity system — heavy-duty gas turbines and grid equipment — at the start of a multiyear demand supercycle, and its reported operating momentum (26.81% revenue growth, gross margin up from 19.07% in Q1 2026 to 24.58% in Q3) is real, but at $774.11 the stock has already de-rated 34.42% from its peak and still trades at 45.89x EV/EBITDA against a 3.65% TTM operating margin. The analyst consensus of strong_buy (32 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell, mean 1.47) with a $1,182.83 average target implying 52.8% upside anchors the constructive side, but most of those targets predate the November drawdown and may be stale.
Supporting evidence for holding rather than selling: revenue accelerated sequentially from $9.339 billion (Q1 2026) to $11.104 billion (Q2) to $12.642 billion (Q3), a 26.81% YoY increase; gross margin expanded 551 basis points over the same three quarters; Q3 operating income of $1.394 billion (11.03% margin) dwarfed the $366 million earned in Q3 2025; TTM free cash flow of $17.116 billion yields roughly 9.6% on the $177.8 billion market cap with debt-to-equity at zero and $16.764 billion of cash; and even the lowest published analyst target of $940 sits 21.4% above the current price. Against that, the trailing PE of 36.47x, PS of 4.67x, and 15.90x price-to-book are a substantial premium to the industrial machinery sector's typical mid-teens-to-low-20s PE and 10–15x EV/EBITDA, and the forward PE of 29.93x rests on a consensus EPS of $59.04 that is orders of magnitude above the $0.027 TTM GAAP EPS.
Risks that could invalidate the thesis: (1) a wave of analyst target cuts validating the downtrend — the -17.37 point one-month relative strength versus the S&P and 15.7% three-day slide from $918.20 to $774.11 show institutional distribution; (2) a working-capital reversal exposing the thin 3.65% TTM operating margin, since Q3 operating cash flow of $6.057 billion included a $5.27 billion working capital benefit and the quick ratio is 0.60; (3) continued Wind segment losses preventing consolidated margin migration toward the mid-teens. This Hold would upgrade to Buy on a reclaim of the $900 level with analyst targets reaffirmed at current prices, or if the forward PE compresses below 25x on intact estimates; it would downgrade to Sell on a break below $770 that opens the path toward the $530.16 52-week low, or if Q4 revenue growth decelerates below 15%. Valuation verdict: fairly valued to modestly rich relative to history — the 4.67x PS and 36.47x PE sit in the lower-middle of GEV's own 8.57x–28.36x PS and 12.15x–117.96x PE bands — but at a clear premium to peers, leaving little room for execution error.
Sign up to view all
GEV 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward view is genuinely two-sided: operating momentum is the strongest in the company's short public history, with revenue up 26.81% and gross margin up 551 basis points over three quarters, yet the stock has de-rated 34.42% because a 45.89x EV/EBITDA multiple was never going to survive a 3.65% TTM operating margin without flawless execution. The analyst consensus of 32 Buy versus 0 Sell with a $1,182.83 average target implies 52.8% upside, but the clustering of reiterations around the October 28 earnings date means those targets likely predate the November collapse and could be revised down, which is the pivotal swing factor. A 50% base-case weighting reflects that the $900–$1,000 shelf is broken and the path of least resistance is sideways-to-lower until targets are either reaffirmed or cut. I would upgrade to bullish on a reclaim of $900 with intact estimates or a forward PE below 25x, and downgrade to bearish on a decisive break below $770 that puts the $530.16 52-week low in play.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on GE Vernova's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1177.07 and implied upside of +45.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$1177.07
38 analysts
Implied Upside
+45.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
38
covering this stock
Price Range
$940 - $1400
Analyst target range
Coverage is deep and overwhelmingly bullish: 33 analysts cover GE Vernova with 32 Buy ratings, 6 Hold ratings, and zero Sells, producing a consensus recommendation of "strong_buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.47 (where 1.0 is a strong buy). The average target price of $1,182.83 implies roughly 52.8% upside from the current $774.11 — an unusually large gap that reflects either significant undervaluation after the recent selloff or stale targets that have not yet been revised downward following the November collapse. Recent institutional actions lean constructive but show cracks: HSBC upgraded to Buy from Hold on October 30, while Argus, Guggenheim, Susquehanna, JP Morgan, RBC, TD Cowen, and Bernstein all maintained Buy/Outperform/Overweight/Positive ratings in late October — but GLJ Research reiterated a Sell on October 30 and Citigroup stayed Neutral, and the clustering of reiterations around the October 28 earnings date means most targets likely predate the 15%+ November drawdown. The target range of $940 to $1,400 is wide — a 49% spread from low to high — signaling genuine disagreement about the earnings trajectory rather than uniform conviction. The $1,400 high target implies the bull case of sustained backlog conversion, Wind segment profitability, margin expansion toward mid-teens, and multiple persistence on 2027–2028 earnings; the $940 low target — still 21.4% above the current price — prices in a more modest outcome with slower margin recovery and competitive pressure in wind, and notably even the most bearish published target sits above the market price, suggesting the selloff has overshot published fundamental views. The consensus forward EPS estimate of $59.04 (range $55.21–$63.02) and revenue estimate of $80.83 billion (range $76.80–$85.02 billion) underpin those targets; the key risk is that the recent price action forces a wave of target cuts that would validate the downtrend, whereas target reaffirmations at current levels would mark the selloff as a dislocation.
Bulls vs Bears: GEV Investment Factors
The bull case rests on genuinely accelerating fundamentals — 26.81% revenue growth, sequential gross margin expansion to 24.58%, a zero-debt balance sheet, and a 9.6% FCF yield — that are difficult to dismiss as cyclical noise, and the analyst community remains near-unanimously constructive with even the lowest target above the current price. The bear case is equally concrete: a 34.42% drawdown with -17.37 points of one-month relative strength, a 45.89x EV/EBITDA multiple paid against a 3.65% TTM operating margin, persistent Wind losses, and working-capital-dependent cash flow. On balance the evidence currently favors the bear side on price action and valuation, while the bull side holds the stronger hand on reported operating momentum — the market is repricing a premium multiple faster than the fundamentals are deteriorating. The single most important tension is whether the late-October Buy reiterations and $1,182.83 average target get reaffirmed at current levels (marking the selloff as a dislocation) or cut en masse (confirming a genuine trend reversal); that resolution, more than any single quarter's revenue, will determine the next 12 months.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating at 26.8% YoY: Q3 2026 revenue of $12.642 billion rose 26.81% year-over-year versus $9.969 billion in Q3 2025, and the sequential progression from $9.339 billion (Q1) to $11.104 billion (Q2) to $12.642 billion (Q3) shows acceleration, not deceleration. The $8.041 billion-to-$12.642 billion climb over seven quarters (~57%) supports the structural-demand thesis rather than a cyclical bounce.
- Analyst consensus overwhelmingly bullish: 32 of 33 covering analysts rate GEV a Buy with zero Sells and a recommendation mean of 1.47, and the $1,182.83 average target implies 52.8% upside from $774.11. Even the lowest published target of $940 sits 21.4% above the current price, suggesting the November selloff has overshot published fundamental views.
- Fortress balance sheet and 9.6% FCF yield: TTM free cash flow of $17.116 billion against a $177.8 billion market cap yields roughly 9.6%, with Q3 operating cash flow of $6.057 billion versus only $647 million of capex. Debt-to-equity is effectively zero, cash stands at $16.764 billion, and ROE is 43.69%, giving GEV unusual financial flexibility for an industrial.
- Gross margin expanding sequentially: Gross margin climbed from 19.07% in Q1 2026 to 21.26% in Q2 to 24.58% in Q3, and Q3 operating income of $1.394 billion (11.03% operating margin) dwarfed Q3 2025's $366 million. The margin trajectory is the key proof point that backlog conversion is translating into earnings rather than just revenue.
Bearish
- Momentum collapse with -34.4% drawdown: The stock is down 22.36% in the past month versus a 4.99% S&P decline (relative strength -17.37 points) and fell roughly 15.7% in three sessions from $918.20 to $774.11 on elevated 7.2 million share volume. The 34.42% maximum drawdown and loss of the $900–$1,000 shelf signal institutional-scale distribution, not a routine pullback.
- Premium multiple on thin operating margins: EV/EBITDA of 45.89x and a 36.47x trailing PE are being paid against a TTM operating margin of just 3.65%, far below the mid-teens needed to justify the multiple. The Q1 2026 headline net income of $4.745 billion was driven by $4.924 billion of non-operating other income, so underlying operating profitability is far weaker than headline figures suggest.
- Wind segment remains a loss-making drag: The Wind segment's continued losses weigh on consolidated margins and are the central execution risk in the bull case, with recent coverage explicitly framing the question as whether gas turbines can offset a 'collapsing wind business.' Until Wind reaches profitability, consolidated operating margin expansion toward mid-teens remains structurally constrained.
- Cash flow quality depends on working capital: A meaningful portion of Q3 cash generation came from a $5.27 billion working capital benefit, which can reverse, and the current ratio of 0.98 with a quick ratio of 0.60 shows tight liquidity buffers. The company relies on its cash pile and customer prepayments rather than balance-sheet cushion, making FCF less predictable than the 9.6% yield implies.
GEV Technical Analysis
GE Vernova is in a pronounced medium-term downtrend within a longer-term uptrend that has broken down. The stock is up 40.70% over the trailing year but has fallen 25.58% over six months and 21.83% over three months, and at $774.11 it sits just 64.7% of the way up its 52-week range of $530.16 to $1,195.94 — closer to the low than the high, a positioning that signals momentum has decisively reversed rather than merely paused. The 34.42% maximum drawdown from peak confirms this is a correction of institutional magnitude, not a routine pullback, and the loss of the $900–$1,000 shelf that held through September and October is technically significant. Recent momentum is unambiguously negative and accelerating to the downside: the stock is down 22.36% in the past month versus a 4.99% decline for the S&P 500, producing a relative strength reading of -17.37 percentage points, and the last three sessions alone saw a collapse from $918.20 on November 3 to $774.11 on November 6 — a roughly 15.7% three-day slide on elevated volume of 7.2 million shares. This one-month weakness directly contradicts the +40.70% one-year gain and the still-positive +13.92% YTD return, a divergence that typically signals either a violent mean-reversion event following an overextended advance or the early stage of a genuine trend reversal; the failure to hold the $900 area after the late-October bounce argues for the latter interpretation until proven otherwise. Key technical levels are now well defined: immediate support sits at the $770.51 prior close and the $774 area, with the true floor at the 52-week low of $530.16 roughly 31.5% below current levels, while resistance has stacked up at $900 (broken support), $1,000 (the September/October shelf), and the $1,195.94 52-week high, about 54.5% above the current price. A reclaim of $900 would be the first evidence of stabilization, whereas a break below $770 opens a path toward the $700s and ultimately the 52-week low; with a beta of 1.058 the stock carries roughly market-level systematic risk, but its realized volatility — evidenced by the 34.42% drawdown and 15%+ three-day moves — is far higher than beta alone implies, warranting smaller position sizing and wider stops.
Beta
1.06
1.06x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$530-$1196
Price range past year
Annual Return
+40.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | GEV Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -18.9% | -2.4% |
| 3m | -23.0% | -2.3% |
| 6m | -23.0% | +2.8% |
| 1y | +40.3% | +11.3% |
| ytd | +18.9% | +11.4% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
GEV Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing robustly and, importantly, accelerating: Q3 2026 revenue of $12.642 billion rose 26.81% year-over-year versus $9.969 billion in Q3 2025, building on a sequential progression from $9.339 billion in Q1 2026 and $11.104 billion in Q2 2026, with the most recent quarter the largest of the trailing four. The mix is heavily weighted toward equipment — Product revenue of $8.340 billion versus Service revenue of $4.302 billion — meaning growth is being driven by new unit sales (gas turbines and grid equipment) rather than the higher-margin recurring service stream, which is a positive for backlog conversion but a mix headwind for margins. The trajectory from $8.041 billion in Q1 2025 to $12.642 billion in Q3 2026 represents roughly 57% growth over seven quarters, consistent with management's commentary on backlog acceleration and the electricity investment supercycle, and supports the view that demand is structural rather than cyclical. Profitability has improved materially but remains thin at the operating line: Q3 2026 net income was $1.291 billion on a 10.21% net margin and 24.58% gross margin, with operating income of $1.394 billion (11.03% operating margin) — a sharp step up from Q3 2025's $452 million net income and 19.04% gross margin, and gross margin has expanded sequentially from 19.07% in Q1 2026 to 21.26% in Q2 to 24.58% in Q3. However, the trailing figures are distorted by a Q1 2026 net income of $4.745 billion that was driven by $4.924 billion of non-operating other income (a 50.81% net margin on just a 1.92% operating margin), so the underlying operating business — at a 3.65% TTM operating margin — is far less profitable than headline net income suggests, and the Wind segment's losses remain a drag on consolidated margins. Balance sheet and cash generation are the strongest part of the story: TTM free cash flow of $17.116 billion against a $177.8 billion market cap implies an FCF yield of roughly 9.6%, Q3 operating cash flow was $6.057 billion with capex of only $647 million, cash stood at $16.764 billion, debt-to-equity is effectively zero, and ROE is an exceptional 43.69% — though the current ratio of 0.98 and quick ratio of 0.60 indicate working capital is tight and the company relies on its cash pile and customer prepayments rather than liquidity buffers. The company is self-funding, returning capital via $1.625 billion of Q3 buybacks and $133 million of dividends, and the zero net debt position means financial risk is low; the caveat is that a meaningful portion of cash flow is working-capital-driven (a $5.27 billion Q3 working capital benefit), which can reverse.
Quarterly Revenue
$12.6B
2026-09
Revenue YoY Growth
+26.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
24.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$17.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is GEV Overvalued?
Because GE Vernova is profitable (Q3 2026 net income of $1.291 billion, TTM EPS positive), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and the picture is one of a premium multiple compressing on forward earnings: the trailing PE is 36.47x versus a forward PE of 29.93x, a roughly 18% de-rating that implies the market expects meaningful EPS growth over the next twelve months. That expectation is aggressive relative to reported results — TTM EPS of about $0.027 (per key metrics) is distorted by one-off items, while the consensus forward EPS estimate of $59.04 implies earnings power several orders of magnitude above trailing GAAP figures, so the forward multiple should be treated with caution. On EV/EBITDA of 45.89x and price-to-sales of 4.67x, the stock is priced for sustained high-teens-plus growth and continued margin expansion. Peer comparison is constrained because the provided valuation dataset contains no explicit industry-average multiples, so a direct spread cannot be quantified; however, against the industrial machinery sector's typical mid-teens to low-20s PE and 10–15x EV/EBITDA, GEV's 36.47x trailing PE and 45.89x EV/EBITDA represent a substantial premium — plausibly 50–100%+ on earnings and 3x+ on EBITDA — that is only defensible if the electricity supercycle delivers multiyear double-digit revenue growth and operating margins migrate from the current 3.65% toward the mid-teens. The 15.90x price-to-book and 35.64x price-to-cash-flow reinforce that this is a growth-at-a-premium valuation rather than a value proposition, while the unusually low PEG of 0.17 suggests the premium is at least partially underwritten by expected earnings growth. Historically, GEV's own multiples have been extraordinarily volatile: PE ranged from 12.15x (Q4 2025) to 117.96x (Q2 2026) and PS from 8.57x (Q4 2024) to 28.36x (Q2 2026), with the current 4.67x PS and 36.47x PE sitting in the lower-middle of that band — well below the Q2 2026 peak PS of 28.36x but above the Q4 2024 trough of 8.57x on sales. The compression from peak multiples reflects both the 22% one-month share-price decline and genuine earnings growth, which is a healthier setup than pure multiple expansion, but the wide historical range itself signals that the market has not settled on a stable valuation framework for this newly listed company.
PE
36.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~118x
vs. Industry Avg
30.2x
Industry PE ~30.2x*
EV/EBITDA
45.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the gap between headline and underlying profitability. TTM operating margin is just 3.65% even as Q3 2026 net margin reached 10.21%, because Q1 2026's $4.745 billion net income was inflated by $4.924 billion of non-operating other income on a 1.92% operating margin — strip that out and the core business earns far less than the 36.47x trailing PE implies. Cash flow quality is similarly fragile: Q3 operating cash flow of $6.057 billion included a $5.27 billion working capital benefit that can reverse, and with a current ratio of 0.98 and quick ratio of 0.60 the company has little liquidity cushion beyond its $16.764 billion cash pile and customer prepayments. Finally, the loss-making Wind segment remains a structural drag on consolidated margins, and the equipment-heavy mix ($8.340 billion product versus $4.302 billion service revenue) means growth is coming from lower-margin new-unit sales rather than recurring service. Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression. At 45.89x EV/EBITDA, 36.47x trailing PE, 15.90x price-to-book, and 4.67x sales, GEV trades at a substantial premium to the industrial machinery sector's typical mid-teens-to-low-20s PE and 10–15x EV/EBITDA — plausibly 50–100%+ on earnings and 3x+ on EBITDA — a gap that only closes through multiyear double-digit growth and margin migration toward the mid-teens. With a beta of 1.058 the stock carries roughly market-level systematic risk, but realized volatility is far higher than beta implies, evidenced by the 34.42% drawdown and 15%+ three-day moves; the -17.37 point one-month relative strength versus the S&P shows the stock is being sold regardless of index direction, a classic de-rating signature. Competitive pressure in wind and the risk that stale October Buy reiterations get cut en masse add a sentiment overhang that could accelerate multiple compression independent of fundamentals. The worst-case scenario is a chain in which the November selloff forces a wave of analyst target cuts, which validates the downtrend, triggers momentum-driven further liquidation, and coincides with a Wind segment setback or a working-capital reversal that exposes the thin 3.65% operating margin. In that path the stock would first test the $700s after breaking the $770.51 support, with the true floor at the 52-week low of $530.16 — roughly 31.5% below the current $774.11. Even the most bearish published analyst target of $940 sits above the current price, so the realistic downside is technical rather than fundamental: an investor could lose approximately 31.5% from here to the 52-week low, and the 34.42% peak-to-trough drawdown already realized shows that magnitude of loss is not hypothetical for this name.
FAQ
Ranked by severity: first, valuation compression — 45.89x EV/EBITDA and 36.47x trailing PE against a 3.65% TTM operating margin means any execution stumble could force the multiple toward the industrial sector's 10–15x EBITDA range. Second, momentum and sentiment risk — the stock is down 22.36% in a month versus a 4.99% S&P decline (relative strength -17.37 points) with a 34.42% max drawdown, and most of the 32 Buy reiterations predate the November collapse, so a wave of target cuts could validate the downtrend. Third, cash flow and margin quality — Q3 operating cash flow of $6.057 billion included a $5.27 billion working capital benefit that can reverse, the quick ratio is 0.60, and Q1 2026's $4.745 billion net income was driven by $4.924 billion of non-operating other income rather than operations. Fourth, segment-specific execution — the Wind segment remains loss-making and is the central swing factor in whether consolidated margins can reach the mid-teens.
The 12-month forecast is split three ways. The base case (50% probability, $900–$1,182) assumes revenue growth decelerates to the high-teens, gross margin holds in the 22–25% band, and the stock stabilizes in the broken $900–$1,000 shelf with the average target drifting toward the $940 low end. The bull case (25% probability, $1,182–$1,400) requires revenue growth above 25%, operating margin above 12%, Wind reaching breakeven, and analyst targets being reaffirmed rather than cut, carrying the stock back toward the $1,195.94 52-week high. The bear case (25% probability, $530–$940) assumes en masse target cuts, a working-capital reversal, or a Wind impairment that breaks the $770.51 support and tests the $530.16 52-week low. The base case is most likely because the $900–$1,000 shelf is broken and the path of least resistance is sideways-to-lower until estimates are either reaffirmed or revised down.
GEV is fairly valued to modestly rich relative to its own history but clearly expensive versus peers. The trailing PE of 36.47x and PS of 4.67x sit in the lower-middle of GEV's own wide bands (PE 12.15x–117.96x, PS 8.57x–28.36x), well below the Q2 2026 peak PS of 28.36x, which argues the multiple has already compressed substantially. Against the industrial machinery sector's typical mid-teens-to-low-20s PE and 10–15x EV/EBITDA, however, the 45.89x EV/EBITDA and 15.90x price-to-book represent a premium of roughly 50–100%+ on earnings. The forward PE of 29.93x implies an ~18% de-rating and rests on a consensus EPS of $59.04 that is orders of magnitude above the $0.027 TTM GAAP EPS, so the market is paying today for earnings it expects years out. The valuation implies the market expects multiyear high-teens-plus revenue growth and operating margin migration from 3.65% toward the mid-teens — anything less leaves the stock exposed.
From a risk/reward standpoint GEV is a reasonable but not compelling buy at $774.11: the analyst consensus of 32 Buy versus 0 Sell with a $1,182.83 average target implies 52.8% upside, and even the lowest published target of $940 sits 21.4% above the current price. The fundamental case is supported by 26.81% revenue growth, gross margin up 551 basis points over three quarters to 24.58%, zero debt-to-equity, and a 9.6% free cash flow yield. The offsetting risk is that the stock has already fallen 34.42% from its peak and still trades at 45.89x EV/EBITDA against a 3.65% TTM operating margin, with a realistic downside of roughly 31.5% to the $530.16 52-week low if the November selloff forces analyst target cuts. It is a good buy for long-horizon growth investors who can tolerate that volatility and who wait for either a reclaim of $900 or a forward PE below 25x; it is a poor entry for anyone needing near-term certainty.
GEV is structurally a long-term holding, not a short-term trade. It is an early-stage public company (listed March 2024) in a multiyear electricity demand supercycle, with a beta of 1.058 that understates realized volatility — the 34.42% max drawdown and 15.7% three-day slide from $918.20 to $774.11 show the stock can move violently on sentiment alone. Earnings visibility is improving but still limited: the consensus forward EPS of $59.04 versus $0.027 TTM GAAP EPS reflects a business whose true earnings power is still being established, and the dividend yield of 0.15% offers no income support. A minimum holding period of 18–24 months is appropriate to let backlog convert and margins migrate, and position sizing should be smaller than a typical industrial allocation given the volatility. Short-term traders should wait for a confirmed reclaim of $900 before engaging, with a stop below $770.