GEV

GE Vernova

$827.42

-10.64%
Oct 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
GE Vernova is a global electric power equipment and services company, spun off from General Electric in April 2024, operating three segments — Power (gas, nuclear, hydro and steam turbines), Wind (onshore and offshore turbines and blades), and Electrification (grid solutions, power conversion, software, solar and storage) — across the full electricity value chain from generation through transmission and storage. As one of the largest installed-base owners of gas turbines and grid equipment in the world, GEV occupies a platform-like position in the power ecosystem: it is less a single-product manufacturer than a critical infrastructure supplier whose service backlog and equipment orders are tied to decades-long utility and hyperscaler capital cycles. The current investor narrative is dominated by AI-driven electricity demand — data center power needs are pulling forward gas turbine, grid and nuclear (including SMR) orders, and management has publicly emphasized backlog acceleration, margin expansion and a wind profitability turnaround. That bullish structural story is being actively debated against a stock that has already re-rated dramatically since its spinoff, with the market now questioning whether order momentum and free cash flow growth can keep pace with a valuation that embeds years of optimistic execution.

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GEV 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $827.42
Average Target $827.42
High Target $951.53
Low Target $703.31

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on GE Vernova's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1223.98 and implied upside of +47.9% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1223.98

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+47.9%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$940 - $1450

Analyst target range

Coverage is deep and overwhelmingly bullish: 33 analysts cover GEV with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.54 (where 1.0 is a strong buy), and the average target price of $1,223.98 implies roughly +32.9% upside from the current $921.20. The consensus leans clearly bullish, and the recent institutional ratings flow reinforces that stance — Bernstein reiterated Outperform on September 15, 2026, and in late July 2026 JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital, Oppenheimer, TD Cowen and Guggenheim all reiterated Overweight/Buy/Outperform ratings, with Mizuho maintaining Neutral as the lone visible hold. The absence of any downgrades in the visible ratings history, combined with the buy-heavy distribution, signals strong sell-side conviction in the backlog, margin and free-cash-flow story. The target range is wide — from a low of $940.00 to a high of $1,450.00 — a spread of roughly 54% around the average, which signals meaningful disagreement about the pace of the re-rating even within a bullish consensus. Notably, the low target of $940.00 sits only about 2% above the current price, implying even the most cautious analyst sees limited downside from here, while the high target of $1,450.00 (roughly +57% upside) assumes multiple expansion and/or accelerating earnings on the back of AI-driven power demand, backlog conversion and wind profitability. The high target likely embeds the consensus EPS estimate of $57.53 (range $52.86-$60.52) and revenue estimate of $79.03 billion (range $74.11-$82.20 billion), while the low target prices in slower margin conversion or a more conservative multiple. The wide spread, combined with the stock's 25.54% max drawdown and 15.61-point three-month underperformance versus SPY, suggests high uncertainty around timing even as directional conviction remains strong — investors should treat the consensus target as a 12-month aspiration rather than a near-term floor.

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GEV Technical Analysis

GE Vernova is in a powerful but maturing uptrend: the stock is up 53.02% over the trailing year and 35.56% year-to-date, yet at $921.20 it sits roughly 77% of the way through its 52-week range of $530.16 to $1,195.94 — about 23% below the high and 74% above the low. That positioning signals a stock that has delivered enormous momentum but is no longer near its highs, having ceded leadership after a mid-year peak; the 25.54% max drawdown confirms this is a high-beta-in-practice name despite its reported 0.967 beta, meaning drawdowns have been sharp and position sizing should reflect realized rather than reported volatility. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY of +37.49 percentage points underscores how dominant the longer-term trend has been, but the stock is now consolidating rather than extending. Short-term momentum has clearly decelerated and diverged from the annual trend: the stock is down 0.42% over one month and 12.92% over three months, versus a 1-year gain of 53.02%, and it has underperformed SPY by 15.61 points over three months and 15.61 points over six months. This is a classic momentum breakdown within a longer uptrend — the 3-month decline of 12.92% against a 6-month decline of 8.13% shows the selling accelerated in the most recent quarter, and the recent slide from $1,029.21 on October 6 to $921.20 on October 16 (a roughly 10.5% drop in eight sessions) suggests distribution rather than orderly profit-taking. The 1-month relative strength of -1.64 points versus SPY's +1.22% gain confirms GEV is now lagging a rising market, a bearish near-term signal. Key levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $530.16, with intermediate support around the $867-$875 area touched in June and September, while resistance is the 52-week high of $1,195.94, with the $1,030-$1,050 zone acting as near-term overhead supply. A breakout above $1,050 would signal the correction is over and re-open the path toward the highs, while a breakdown below the $867-$875 shelf would confirm a lower-highs/lower-lows structure and likely target the $800s; with a beta of 0.967 the stock should theoretically move roughly in line with the market, but its realized drawdown of 25.54% and 3-month underperformance of 15.61 points show it is behaving with far more volatility than its beta implies, warranting tighter risk controls.

Beta

0.97

0.97x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-29.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$530-$1196

Price range past year

Annual Return

+43.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodGEV ReturnS&P 500
1m-12.9%-1.2%
3m-18.5%+3.4%
6m-28.0%+7.0%
1y+43.6%+14.4%
ytd+21.8%+12.0%

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GEV Fundamental Analysis

Revenue is growing robustly: Q2 2026 revenue of $11.104 billion rose 21.87% year-over-year from $9.111 billion in Q2 2025, and the multi-quarter trajectory shows acceleration — quarterly revenue climbed from $8.041 billion in Q1 2025 to $9.339 billion in Q1 2026 and $11.104 billion in Q2 2026, with the most recent quarter the strongest in the dataset. The segment mix shows Product revenue of $6.46 billion and Service revenue of $4.637 billion, with the Power segment flagged at $12.0 million in the provided segment data (likely a partial or mis-scaled disclosure), but the overall pattern is clear: equipment demand tied to gas, grid and nuclear buildout is driving the top line, and the 21.87% growth rate is well above what a mature industrial normally delivers. This growth trend materially strengthens the investment case, as it validates the AI-power-demand thesis and supports the backlog acceleration management has highlighted. Profitability is solid and improving: Q2 2026 net income was $668 million on a 6.02% net margin, with gross margin of 21.26% ($2.361 billion gross profit) and operating margin of 5.90% ($655 million operating income). Gross margin has expanded from 19.07% in Q1 2026 and 19.04% in Q3 2025 to 21.26% in Q2 2026, a clear upward trajectory, though the Q1 2026 net income of $4.745 billion (50.8% net margin) was inflated by a $4.924 billion non-operating gain and should not be treated as recurring. The trailing PE of 36.47x against a forward PE of 36.45x implies the market expects earnings to hold roughly flat near-term, but the reported EPS of $0.027 is distorted by one-time items; the underlying operating margin of 5.90% remains thin for an industrial and leaves room for the margin-expansion story to play out. The balance sheet and cash flow are the standout: free cash flow TTM is $12.439 billion, Q2 2026 free cash flow was $5.106 billion on operating cash flow of $5.492 billion with capex of only $386 million, and cash at period end was $13.119 billion. Debt-to-equity is reported at 0 (with historical debt-equity ratios of 0.33 in Q2 2026 and 0.21 in Q1 2026), the current ratio is 0.98 — slightly below 1.0, a modest liquidity tightness typical of industrial working-capital cycles — and ROE is an exceptional 43.69% (though flattered by a high equity multiplier of 6.76). With FCF of $12.4 billion against a $177.8 billion market cap, the FCF yield is roughly 7.0%, a strong cash-generation profile that funds growth internally and supports the $2.393 billion of buybacks executed in Q2 2026 without external financing dependence.

Quarterly Revenue

$11.1B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+21.9%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

21.3%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$12.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Power Segment
Product
Service

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Valuation Analysis: Is GEV Overvalued?

Because net income is positive ($668 million in Q2 2026), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric: GEV trades at a trailing PE of 36.47x and a forward PE of 36.45x, an essentially flat pair that implies the market is not pricing in meaningful near-term EPS growth from the current base — a notable disconnect given the 21.87% revenue growth and the analyst consensus EPS estimate of $57.53, which would represent an enormous step-up from the reported $0.027 trailing EPS (the gap reflects one-time items and the difference between GAAP and adjusted estimates). The flat trailing-to-forward PE suggests either that consensus earnings are being measured on a very different basis than reported GAAP, or that the market is skeptical of near-term margin conversion despite top-line strength. On peer comparison, the valuation is rich across the board: PS of 4.67x, EV/Sales of 5.78x, EV/EBITDA of 45.89x, PB of 15.90x and PCF of 35.64x, with a PEG of just 0.17 that looks attractive only because of the distorted earnings base. Against a typical industrial-machinery sector trading in the high-teens to low-20s PE and roughly 1.5-2.5x EV/Sales, GEV's 36.5x PE and 5.8x EV/Sales represent a substantial premium — roughly 60-100% above sector norms on earnings and more than double on sales — which can only be justified by its superior growth (21.87% revenue growth), AI-power-demand positioning and 7% FCF yield, but leaves little margin for error. Historically, the stock's own valuation band has compressed dramatically: PE was 117.96x in Q2 2026, 12.36x in Q1 2026 (distorted by the one-time gain), 12.15x in Q4 2025 and 92.61x in Q3 2025, while PS has ranged from 5.32x (Q1 2024) to 28.36x (Q2 2026) and currently sits at 4.67x — near the low end of its historical PS band, which is a meaningful signal. The current PS of 4.67x versus a Q2 2026 reading of 28.36x and a Q1 2026 reading of 25.14x indicates the multiple has de-rated sharply even as the business has grown, suggesting the market has already priced out much of the prior euphoria; whether this is a value opportunity or reflects fundamental deterioration hinges on whether the 21.87% growth and margin expansion continue.

PE

36.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 9x~118x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

45.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple