Generac Holdings Inc.
GNRC
$295.54
+5.87%
Generac Holdings Inc. designs and manufactures power generation equipment, serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets with a portfolio that includes standby generators, portable generators, and a suite of clean energy products. The company is a dominant market leader in residential backup power in the United States, with a competitive identity built on brand recognition, a robust dealer network, and a vertically integrated manufacturing model. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's strategic pivot to supply backup power solutions for the booming AI data center market, which has driven a significant stock re-rating based on upgraded sales forecasts and explosive demand expectations, though this growth story carries a premium valuation that demands flawless execution.…
GNRC
Generac Holdings Inc.
$295.54
Related headlines
GNRC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Generac Holdings Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $384.20 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$384.20
4 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
4
covering this stock
Price Range
$236 - $384
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for GNRC appears limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, and no explicit consensus price target, buy/hold/sell distribution, or target range provided in the data set. This suggests insufficient analyst coverage is available for a definitive consensus view. Limited coverage typically indicates the stock may be a mid-cap name with less institutional research focus, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available data shows analysts estimate an average EPS of $17.84 and revenue of $7.41 billion, implying strong growth expectations. The institutional ratings snippets show recent actions including a downgrade from Citigroup to 'Neutral' in March 2026 and a downgrade from Guggenheim to 'Neutral' in February 2026, alongside maintained 'Buy' ratings from firms like Needham and B of A Securities. This mixed activity, with some downgrades amid a powerful rally, signals growing caution and a debate over whether the current price fully reflects the AI data center growth narrative.
GNRC Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 122.39% price increase over the past year. As of the latest close of $279.15, the stock is trading at approximately 95% of its 52-week high of $294.18, indicating it is near peak momentum levels and may be susceptible to profit-taking or overextension. This positioning suggests the market has priced in significant optimism, leaving little room for disappointment. Recent momentum remains robust but shows signs of volatility; the stock gained 14.42% over the past month and 40.06% over the past three months, though these gains have been punctuated by sharp pullbacks, such as the recent drop from above $280 to below $240 in mid-June. The 1-month relative strength of 13.68 versus the SPY indicates the stock is significantly outperforming the broader market, confirming strong short-term momentum despite the inherent volatility. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $125.80, while immediate resistance sits at the 52-week high of $294.18. A decisive breakout above $294 would signal a continuation of the powerful bull trend, while a breakdown below the recent consolidation range near $240 could trigger a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 1.91 indicates it is approximately 91% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk management as it implies amplified moves in both directions.
Beta
1.91
1.91x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$127-$296
Price range past year
Annual Return
+132.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | GNRC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.4% | -0.2% |
| 3m | +41.3% | +14.0% |
| 6m | +109.9% | +7.8% |
| 1y | +132.1% | +25.3% |
| ytd | +109.5% | +9.2% |
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GNRC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $1.09 billion representing an 11.6% year-over-year decline, a sharp contrast to the profitability seen in prior quarters. Segment data from the latest period shows Residential Power Products contributed $626.7 million, Commercial & Industrial contributed $358.3 million, and Other Products contributed $129.4 million, indicating the residential segment remains the core driver. The multi-quarter trend reveals volatility, with revenue peaking at $1.23 billion in Q4 2024 before the recent dip, suggesting the business is cyclical and sensitive to demand fluctuations. Profitability has swung dramatically, with the latest quarter reporting a net loss of -$24.5 million and a gross margin of 36.29%, compared to a net income of $128.9 million and a gross margin of 40.61% in the year-ago quarter. This margin compression from 40.61% to 36.29% year-over-year indicates significant pressure on profitability, likely from input costs or promotional activity. The operating margin also turned negative at -0.85% in Q4 2025, down from a positive 16.04% a year prior, highlighting operational challenges amidst the revenue decline. The balance sheet remains reasonably healthy with a current ratio of 2.03 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51, indicating manageable leverage and good short-term liquidity. The company generated $356.8 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing internal funding capacity for growth initiatives. However, the return on equity of 6.06% is modest, suggesting the company is not generating exceptional returns on shareholder capital at this juncture, which aligns with the recent period of earnings pressure.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.11%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.36%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$356780999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is GNRC Overvalued?
Given the most recent quarterly net income was negative (-$24.5 million), we lead with the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for valuation. The trailing PS ratio is 1.90, while the forward PS, based on estimated revenue of $7.41 billion, implies a significantly lower multiple, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial revenue growth recovery. The gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects expectations for a sharp rebound in sales, likely tied to the AI data center opportunity. Compared to the broader Industrials sector, a PS ratio of 1.90 appears reasonable, though a direct industry average is not provided in the data. The valuation premium is more clearly seen in the forward P/E of 25.1x, which prices in a return to robust profitability. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from a low near 1.90 (current) to highs above 28 during the peak pandemic demand in 2021. The current PS of 1.90 sits near the bottom of its multi-year historical range, which could indicate a value opportunity if the company's fundamentals are poised for a cyclical recovery, or it may reflect a justified discount due to recent earnings deterioration and margin compression.
PE
50.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -81x~134x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple

