The Hartford
HIG
$142.90
+0.70%
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is a diversified insurance and financial services company providing property and casualty insurance, group benefits, and mutual funds, primarily operating in the United States. It is a well-established player in the insurance industry, recognized for service excellence and sustainability, with a strong presence in commercial and personal lines. The company is currently focused on disciplined underwriting, margin expansion, and capital return to shareholders, while navigating a competitive property and casualty market. Recent attention has centered on its consistent earnings performance and the impact of pricing and reserve actions on future growth.…
HIG
The Hartford
$142.90
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HIG Today?
Based on the analysis, HIG is rated a Buy. The stock offers a compelling combination of low valuation (PE 10.20x), solid profitability (ROE 20.21%), and a defensive profile (beta 0.468). The consensus analyst rating is Buy with an average target of $149.85, implying a 5.6% upside, which is modest but positive.
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HIG 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on HIG, driven by its low valuation, solid growth, and defensive characteristics. The stock's PEG ratio of 0.36 suggests it is undervalued relative to its growth prospects, and its low beta makes it a suitable holding in a volatile market. However, the modest upside to analyst targets and the sequential revenue decline warrant caution. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company delivers a strong Q2 earnings report with accelerating revenue growth, and downgraded to neutral if revenue growth falls below 4% or if the combined ratio deteriorates significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Hartford's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $149.85 and implied upside of +4.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$149.85
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+4.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$135 - $164
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is robust, with 20 analysts providing ratings. The consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 2.30 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $149.85, implying an upside of 5.6% from the current price of $141.91. The distribution is bullish, with 15 Buy ratings, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell, indicating strong confidence in the company's prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: HIG Investment Factors
The bull case for HIG rests on its low valuation, strong profitability, and defensive characteristics, with a PEG of 0.36 and a beta of 0.468. However, the bear case highlights limited upside to analyst targets, underperformance vs. the S&P 500, and sequential revenue decline. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence due to the attractive valuation and solid fundamentals, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth and margin expansion to justify a re-rating. If revenue growth accelerates, the stock could re-rate higher; if it stagnates, the low PE may persist, limiting returns.
Bullish
- Attractive Valuation with PEG of 0.36: The stock trades at a trailing PE of 10.20x and a forward PE of 10.34x, which is low for the market. The PEG ratio of 0.36 indicates the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth, suggesting potential upside.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Target Upside: With 20 analysts, the consensus is a Buy (mean rating 2.30) and the average target price is $149.85, implying a 5.6% upside from the current price of $141.91. The high target of $164 suggests even more upside potential.
- Consistent Revenue Growth and Profitability: Q1 2026 revenue grew 6.11% YoY to $7.226 billion, with net income of $856 million and a net margin of 13.57%. The company has maintained positive earnings across quarters, with ROE at 20.21%, indicating strong profitability.
- Solid Balance Sheet and Low Debt: The debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.23, and the current ratio is 17.65, indicating a strong liquidity position. This financial stability supports the company's ability to weather downturns and return capital to shareholders.
Bearish
- Limited Upside to Analyst Targets: The average analyst target of $149.85 is only 5.6% above the current price, and the low target of $135 is below the current price. This suggests limited near-term upside and potential downside if the stock fails to meet expectations.
- Underperformance Relative to S&P 500: Over the past year, HIG gained 14.08% while the S&P 500 gained 18.19%, underperforming by 4.11 percentage points. This relative weakness may persist if the market continues to favor growth stocks.
- Revenue Growth Slowing Sequentially: Q1 2026 revenue of $7.226 billion was down from Q4 2025's $7.312 billion, a sequential decline. This could indicate softening demand or increased competition, potentially impacting future earnings.
- High Valuation on EV/EBITDA: The EV/EBITDA of 8.06x is not particularly cheap for an insurer, and the forward PE of 10.34x is only slightly below the trailing PE, suggesting the market expects flat earnings growth. This limits the potential for multiple expansion.
HIG Technical Analysis
The stock is in a clear uptrend over the past year, with a 14.08% price increase, though it has lagged the S&P 500's 18.19% gain. Currently trading at $141.91, it sits near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 97.2% of the high of $146.07 and 17.9% above the low of $120.33. This positioning suggests strong momentum but also potential overextension, as the stock has recovered from a mid-June dip to near its highs.
Beta
0.46
0.46x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$120-$146
Price range past year
Annual Return
+16.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HIG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.7% | +1.7% |
| 3m | +6.5% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +1.4% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +16.2% | +21.9% |
| ytd | +4.2% | +11.1% |
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HIG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been steady, with Q1 2026 revenue of $7.226 billion, up 6.11% year-over-year from $6.81 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent growth, with revenue rising from $6.47 billion in Q2 2024 to $7.31 billion in Q4 2025, though Q1 2026 saw a slight sequential decline from Q4. The growth is driven by strong premium retention and new business in commercial lines, partially offset by softer personal lines. This steady growth supports the company's ability to generate underwriting profits.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$5.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HIG Overvalued?
Given positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 10.20x, while the forward PE is 10.34x, indicating stable earnings expectations. The gap is minimal, suggesting the market expects flat earnings growth, which is consistent with the PEG ratio of 0.36, implying undervaluation relative to growth. The EV/EBITDA of 8.06x is also attractive for an insurer.
PE
10.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~15x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks include the company's reliance on underwriting discipline to maintain profitability. The net margin of 13.57% is decent but could be pressured by rising claims costs or catastrophe losses. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23 is low, but the company's cash flow generation is critical; free cash flow TTM is $5.82 billion, which is strong, but any deterioration in underwriting results could impact capital return. Additionally, the payout ratio of 15.98% suggests room for dividend growth, but if earnings decline, the dividend could be at risk.