LEU

Centrus Energy Corp.

$171.13

-3.59%
Jun 24, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Centrus Energy Corp. is a supplier of nuclear fuel and services for the nuclear power industry, operating through its Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) and Technical Solutions segments. The company is a key domestic provider in the uranium supply chain, distinct for its role in producing and selling separative work units (SWUs) and uranium, which are critical inputs for nuclear reactors. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's strategic positioning to capitalize on the AI-driven energy boom and the global push for nuclear power, highlighted by its recent long-term fuel supply agreement with Oklo, which directly addresses a major bottleneck in the U.S. advanced nuclear sector and secures future revenue streams.

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LEU 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $171.13
Average Target $171.13
High Target $196.79949999999997
Low Target $145.4605

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Centrus Energy Corp.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $222.47 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$222.47

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$137 - $222

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

The stock is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus that leans neutral to cautiously optimistic, as evidenced by recent ratings from UBS, Citigroup, and JP Morgan all at 'Neutral', while B. Riley and Needham maintain 'Buy' ratings. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but analyst estimates point to an average EPS forecast of $3.64 on revenue of $589.1 million for the coming period, implying expectations for substantial growth from the most recent quarterly EPS of $0.94. The target price range is implied by the EPS estimates, with a low of $3.42 and a high of $3.85, representing a relatively tight spread of about 12%, which suggests a moderate level of conviction in the near-term earnings outlook. The high target likely assumes successful execution on new contracts like the Oklo deal and a favorable resolution to supply chain issues, while the low target may price in risks like contract expirations or margin compression. The pattern of institutional ratings shows a series of 'Neutral' reaffirmations in early 2026, indicating a wait-and-see approach among analysts following the stock's sharp decline, awaiting clearer signs of fundamental traction.

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LEU Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 26.9% over the past six months and 29.8% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the broader market. With a current price of $191.39, it is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range of $144.65 to $464.25, indicating it is in a zone of potential value but also reflecting persistent selling pressure and negative sentiment. The 1-year price change of 5.8% is positive but masks the severe volatility and recent weakness captured in the 6-month and YTD figures. Recent momentum shows a stark divergence, with the stock up 13.2% over the past month, suggesting a potential short-term relief rally or reaction to specific catalysts like the recent Oklo agreement. However, this positive 1-month move contrasts sharply with the negative 3-month change of 2.5%, indicating the rally is nascent and has not yet reversed the medium-term downtrend. The stock's beta of 1.339 confirms it is approximately 34% more volatile than the market, which amplifies both gains and losses and is a critical factor for risk management. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $144.65, while resistance looms far above at the 52-week high of $464.25. A sustained breakdown below the $144.65 support would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, whereas a decisive move above recent highs near $220-$230 would be needed to suggest a more durable recovery is underway. The high beta and a max drawdown of -66.4% underscore the stock's speculative and volatile nature, requiring careful position sizing.

Beta

1.34

1.34x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-66.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$145-$464

Price range past year

Annual Return

-11.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLEU ReturnS&P 500
1m-4.6%-1.7%
3m-11.5%+13.7%
6m-32.7%+6.2%
1y-11.0%+20.8%
ytd-37.2%+7.5%

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LEU Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is highly volatile and currently decelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $146.2 million representing a 3.6% year-over-year decline. Segment data shows the LEU segment, comprising Separative Work Units ($111M) and Uranium ($14M), drives the majority of revenue, with the Technical Solutions segment contributing engineering services. The quarterly trend is erratic, with revenue swinging from $73.1M in Q1 to $154.5M in Q2, then back to $74.9M in Q3, indicating lumpy contract timing rather than steady organic growth. Profitability is inconsistent, with net income swinging from $27.2M in Q1 to $2.9M in Q2, $3.9M in Q3, and $17.8M in Q4. Gross margin for the latest quarter was 23.9%, a significant compression from the 45.0% reported in Q1 2025, highlighting pressure on pricing or cost structure. The net margin for Q4 was 12.2%, and while the company is currently profitable on a trailing basis, the extreme quarterly variability in both revenue and margins makes forecasting challenging and points to execution risk. The balance sheet shows a strong current ratio of 5.59, indicating ample short-term liquidity, but a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59 suggests a leveraged capital structure. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is positive at $31.3 million, providing internal funding for operations. However, quarterly cash flow statements reveal significant volatility, with Q4 2025 showing an operating cash flow outflow of -$48.4M and a free cash flow outflow of -$58.0M, driven by a large increase in working capital, underscoring the lumpy and unpredictable nature of the business's cash generation.

Quarterly Revenue

$146200000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.23%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$31300000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Product
Separative Work Units
Uranium

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Valuation Analysis: Is LEU Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 56.1x, while the forward PE is 48.2x, based on estimated EPS of $3.64. The gap between trailing and forward multiples indicates the market expects significant earnings growth, with the forward multiple pricing in a nearly 15% reduction, reflecting anticipated profit expansion. Compared to sector averages, the valuation appears elevated. The stock trades at a significant premium on a Price-to-Sales basis, with a PS ratio of 9.72x. While direct industry comps are not provided in the data, such a high sales multiple for an energy materials company suggests the market is pricing in transformative growth from the nuclear renaissance narrative, rather than current fundamentals. The EV/EBITDA of 33.0x further confirms a rich valuation, typically reserved for high-growth tech, not cyclical commodity suppliers. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been extremely volatile. The current trailing PE of 56.1x is below the Q3 2025 peak of 364.1x but well above the Q4 2024 low of 5.2x. This places it in the mid-to-upper range of its own historical band over the past two years, suggesting the market is still assigning a premium for its growth story but not at the extreme optimism seen previously. The negative PEG ratio of -15.7, however, signals that the high PE is not justified by the consensus growth rate, presenting a valuation risk.

PE

56.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -306x~364x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

33.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple