Modine Manufacturing Co
MOD
$230.41
-2.03%
Modine Manufacturing Co provides thermal management solutions, including engineered heat transfer systems and components for on- and off-highway vehicular applications, operating through Climate Solutions and Performance Technologies segments. As a diversified industrial player with a strong niche in thermal management, the company is distinct for its expanding presence in data center cooling solutions, a high-growth market driven by AI infrastructure demand. The current investor narrative centers on Modine's transformation into a pure-play data center cooling leader, highlighted by a landmark $4 billion contract that validates its AI-related growth thesis and has driven significant stock appreciation. Debate persists around the sustainability of this growth trajectory and the company's ability to execute on large-scale contracts while managing margin expansion.…
MOD
Modine Manufacturing Co
$230.41
MOD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Modine Manufacturing Co's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $299.53 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$299.53
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$184 - $300
Analyst target range
Only 2 analysts cover Modine, with both rating it a Buy (DA Davidson and Oppenheimer). The consensus recommendation is Buy, and the average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $16.12, with a range of $13.99 to $17.55. The average revenue estimate is $6.57 billion, with a range of $5.90 billion to $7.02 billion. Based on the current price of $230.97 and the average EPS estimate of $16.12, the forward P/E is 14.3x, which is below the forward P/E of 20.3x from valuation data, suggesting potential upside if estimates are met. The high EPS estimate of $17.55 implies a forward P/E of 13.2x, while the low estimate of $13.99 implies 16.5x. The limited analyst coverage (2 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap stock that has recently gained attention; this can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The absence of price targets in the data prevents calculation of implied upside/downside, but the bullish ratings and strong earnings growth expectations suggest a positive outlook. The narrow EPS range ($13.99-$17.55) indicates relatively high conviction among the covering analysts, though the small sample size limits statistical significance.
MOD Technical Analysis
Modine's stock has exhibited a powerful long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +125.95%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +19.1% gain. The current price of $230.97 sits at 71.5% of its 52-week range ($86.48 low to $323.25 high), indicating the stock is in the upper half of its range but has pulled back from the highs. This positioning suggests the stock retains strong momentum but is not overextended, offering potential for further upside if it can reclaim recent peaks. Over the past 3 months, the stock has gained 5.31%, while the 1-month change is -24.74%, a sharp divergence from the longer-term trend. This short-term pullback from the June 2026 high of $306.89 could signal a temporary correction or profit-taking, but the 3-month positive return suggests the underlying trend remains intact. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 month is -23.49%, indicating recent underperformance, but the 1-year relative strength of +106.85% underscores sustained leadership. The 52-week high of $323.25 represents key resistance, while the 52-week low of $86.48 provides a distant support level. A breakout above $323.25 would signal a resumption of the uptrend and potential for new highs, while a breakdown below the recent low of $230.97 could test the $200 level. With a beta of 1.672, Modine is 67% more volatile than the market, amplifying both gains and losses, which requires careful risk management.
Beta
1.67
1.67x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$86-$323
Price range past year
Annual Return
+130.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MOD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.7% | +1.4% |
| 3m | -1.9% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +92.0% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +130.6% | +20.5% |
| ytd | +63.6% | +9.7% |
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MOD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing robustly, with the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ending Dec 2025) reporting $805 million, a 30.51% YoY increase from $616.8 million in the prior-year quarter. However, this growth is decelerating from the 33.5% YoY growth seen in Q2 FY2026 and the 37.5% in Q1 FY2026, suggesting a gradual normalization. The data center segment contributed $296.9 million in the most recent quarter, highlighting its role as a key growth driver. The revenue trajectory remains strong but is showing signs of moderation, which could temper growth expectations. The company reported a net loss of -$47.4 million in Q3 FY2026, compared to net income of $44.4 million in Q2 FY2026 and $51.2 million in Q1 FY2026, driven by a $135.3 million other expense item. Gross margin improved to 23.12% from 22.32% in Q2, but operating margin fell to 12.02% from 9.95% in Q2, indicating cost pressures. The net loss is a concern, but the underlying business excluding one-time items remains profitable, with operating income of $96.8 million. The company's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49, indicating moderate leverage, and a current ratio of 1.94, suggesting adequate liquidity. Free cash flow was -$17.1 million in Q3, but trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $7.4 million, barely positive. Return on equity (ROE) is 10.2%, reasonable for the sector, but the negative free cash flow in the quarter raises questions about cash generation sustainability.
Quarterly Revenue
$805000000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.30%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.23%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$7400000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MOD Overvalued?
Since net income is positive on a trailing twelve-month basis (TTM net income of $97.8 million), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 96.3x, while the forward P/E is 20.3x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The wide gap between trailing and forward P/E reflects the anticipated earnings recovery from the recent loss quarter and the impact of the data center contract. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (auto parts sector), Modine's trailing P/E of 96.3x represents a 338% premium, but the forward P/E of 20.3x is in line with the sector, suggesting the market is pricing in a sharp earnings rebound. Historically, Modine's trailing P/E has ranged from 3.3x (Q4 2023) to 96.3x (current), placing it at the high end of its historical band. The current P/E is near the top of its 5-year range, indicating that the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations. If the company fails to deliver the anticipated earnings growth, the stock could face multiple compression.
PE
96.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -37x~368x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
41.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple

