MasTec
MTZ
$214.38
+3.19%
MasTec, Inc. is a leading North American infrastructure construction company that engineers, builds, installs, maintains, and upgrades communications, oil and gas, utility, renewable energy, and other infrastructure, reporting results across five segments: communications, clean energy and infrastructure, pipeline infrastructure, power delivery, and other. With roughly 37,000 employees and a market capitalization near $17-19 billion, MasTec occupies a scaled, diversified position in the Engineering & Construction industry, functioning as a critical execution partner for telecom carriers, utilities, and energy developers rather than a single-end-market contractor. The current investor narrative centers on whether AI-driven data center and communications buildout demand can sustain the record backlog and raised guidance management has highlighted, even as the stock has suffered a severe multi-month drawdown. Debate now hinges on whether the recent selloff reflects a temporary sentiment and margin dislocation or a genuine deterioration in the demand outlook for large-scale infrastructure programs.…
MTZ
MasTec
$214.38
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTZ Today?
The synthesized recommendation is a Hold with a speculative bias. The core thesis is that MasTec's revenue growth and analyst optimism are compelling, but the severe technical breakdown, margin compression, and cash flow deterioration warrant caution until there is evidence of a turnaround. The analyst consensus is a strong buy with an average target price of $416.95, implying 94.5% upside, but the market's skepticism, reflected in the 43.5% three-month decline, suggests that the bullish case is not yet confirmed by fundamentals.
Supporting evidence includes revenue growth of 34.45% YoY in Q1 2026, a forward PE of 17.08x that is reasonable if earnings recover, and a PS ratio of 1.18x near historical lows. However, trailing PE of 42.46x is elevated, gross margin compressed to 9.30%, and free cash flow yield is only 1.5%. The company's debt-to-equity of 0.859 and current ratio of 1.323 are manageable but not strong. The implied upside to the analyst average target is substantial, but the wide target range ($321 to $518) and the fact that the low target is still 50% above current price suggest that analysts may be slow to adjust to deteriorating conditions.
Risks that could invalidate the thesis include a continued decline in gross margin below 9%, a failure to convert backlog into cash flow, and a broader market rotation away from high-beta industrials. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the company demonstrates margin stabilization and positive free cash flow in the next quarter, or if the stock breaks above the $260-$290 resistance zone with strong volume. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or if free cash flow remains negative for multiple quarters. Relative to its history and peers, the stock appears undervalued on a forward basis but overvalued on trailing metrics, making it a show-me story.
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MTZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking view is cautiously neutral. The company's revenue growth and analyst optimism are offset by margin compression, cash flow deterioration, and a severe technical breakdown. The key factor is whether the forward EPS estimate of $25.08 is achievable; if it is, the stock is undervalued, but if not, further downside is likely. I would upgrade to bullish if the next quarter shows margin stabilization and positive free cash flow, and downgrade to bearish if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or if the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $182.34.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MasTec's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $416.95 and implied upside of +94.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$416.95
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+94.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$321 - $518
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust with 20 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is a strong buy with a recommendation mean of 1.2381, reflecting near-unanimous bullish sentiment. The average target price of $416.95 implies roughly 94.5% upside from the current price of $214.38, an unusually wide gap that signals either a significant mispricing opportunity or a market that has priced in risks the analyst community has not yet fully incorporated. The Buy/Hold/Sell distribution is overwhelmingly positive, with recent institutional ratings showing only Buy, Outperform, and Overweight actions from firms including TD Cowen, Baird, Cantor Fitzgerald, Mizuho, Truist, JP Morgan, KeyBanc, and Guggenheim, the latter upgrading from Neutral to Buy in May 2026. The consensus is unambiguously bullish, but the magnitude of the disconnect between the $416.95 average target and the $214.38 market price is a caution flag that the selloff may reflect information or concerns not yet reflected in published ratings. The target range spans from a low of $321.00 to a high of $518.00, a spread of $197 or roughly 61% of the low target, which signals high uncertainty about the company's trajectory. The high target of $518.00 implies roughly 142% upside and would require both multiple expansion and successful execution of the record backlog with margin recovery, effectively assuming the AI-driven infrastructure demand narrative plays out fully. The low target of $321.00 still implies about 50% upside from current levels, suggesting that even the most conservative analyst sees meaningful value, though the low target may price in margin compression and slower backlog conversion rather than a demand collapse. The wide spread, combined with the fact that all recent rating actions are reiterations or upgrades rather than downgrades, suggests analysts are holding their ground on fundamentals while the market reprices risk, creating a standoff that will likely resolve around the next earnings report or guidance update.
Bulls vs Bears: MTZ Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to the severe technical breakdown, margin compression, and free cash flow collapse, which are concrete and recent. The bull case rests on revenue growth, analyst optimism, and a forward PE that assumes a dramatic earnings recovery. The single most important tension is whether the forward EPS estimate of $25.08 is credible; if it is, the stock is deeply undervalued, but if margin pressure persists, the earnings recovery may be delayed, justifying further downside. The market is pricing in skepticism, as evidenced by the 43.5% three-month decline, while analysts remain bullish, creating a standoff that will likely resolve around the next earnings report or guidance update.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating at 34.5% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $3.829 billion grew 34.45% versus Q1 2025's $2.848 billion, with sequential expansion from $3.544 billion in Q2 2025 to $3.967 billion in Q3 2025. This top-line momentum is broad-based, led by Clean Energy and Infrastructure at $1.329 billion and Communications at $802 million, supporting the AI-driven infrastructure demand narrative.
- Analyst consensus strong buy with 94.5% upside: 20 analysts rate MTZ a strong buy (recommendation mean 1.2381) with an average target price of $416.95, implying 94.5% upside from the current $214.38. The low target of $321.00 still implies 49.7% upside, and recent actions from TD Cowen, Baird, Cantor Fitzgerald, Mizuho, Truist, JP Morgan, KeyBanc, and Guggenheim are all Buy/Outperform/Overweight, including a Guggenheim upgrade from Neutral to Buy in May 2026.
- Forward PE of 17.08x implies earnings recovery: The trailing PE of 42.46x compresses to a forward PE of 17.08x, a roughly 60% reduction that reflects consensus EPS estimates averaging $25.08. If the company delivers on this estimate, the stock is trading at a reasonable multiple for a business growing revenue at 34% YoY, and the PEG ratio of 0.293 appears attractive on a forward basis.
- PS ratio near historical lows at 1.18x: The price-to-sales ratio of 1.18x is near the low end of its historical range, versus 4.30x in Q4 2025 and 6.55x in Q1 2026 on the historical ratios data. This suggests the market has aggressively de-rated the revenue multiple even as revenue grows, and a return toward the 3-4x historical norm would imply substantial upside if profitability stabilizes.
Bearish
- Severe technical breakdown with 52.5% drawdown: MTZ is in a pronounced downtrend, with the current price of $214.38 sitting at just 12.3% of its 52-week range (low of $182.34, high of $441.43). The 52.5% max drawdown and 43.5% three-month decline show accelerating selling pressure, and relative strength versus SPY is deeply negative across every window (-45.5% over 3 months, -46.1% over 6 months), indicating a company-specific de-rating.
- Margin compression and earnings volatility: Gross margin compressed to 9.30% in Q1 2026 from 10.08% in Q4 2025 and 13.56% in Q3 2025, while net margin fell to 1.82% from 3.62% and 4.05% respectively. Quarterly EPS declined from $2.07 in Q3 2025 to $0.78 in Q1 2026, illustrating how quickly earnings can swing in this low-margin, pass-through-heavy construction model.
- Free cash flow collapse and cash burn: Q1 2026 free cash flow collapsed to just $2.1 million from $292.5 million in Q4 2025, with TTM FCF of only $256.7 million against a $16.9 billion market cap, implying a FCF yield of roughly 1.5%. The company consumed cash for $96.8 million of capex, $266.9 million of acquisitions, and a $145.1 million working capital drag, with cash falling to $273.7 million from $396.0 million.
- High leverage and thin profitability: Debt-to-equity of 0.859 and a current ratio of 1.323 indicate a leveraged balance sheet, while trailing operating margin of 4.56% and net margin of 2.79% are characteristic of low-margin construction contracting. The price-to-free-cash-flow ratio above 12,000x on the latest quarterly data highlights the company's dependence on converting backlog into cash flow.
MTZ Technical Analysis
MTZ is in a pronounced downtrend despite a marginally positive 1-year price change of +7.49%, with the current price of $214.38 sitting at just 12.3% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $182.34, high of $441.43). That positioning near the bottom of the annual range signals a stock that has surrendered nearly all of its prior gains and is trading in capitulation territory rather than momentum leadership. The 52.5% max drawdown confirms the severity of the decline, and with the price only about 17.6% above the 52-week low, the risk of a retest of that floor remains a live concern for trend followers. Recent momentum is decisively negative and decelerating: the 1-month change of -21.20% and 3-month change of -43.53% show an accelerating selloff, while the 6-month change of -28.68% and YTD change of -5.83% frame a rolling breakdown that began after the spring peak above $430. Relative strength versus SPY is deeply negative across every window (-20.24% over 1 month, -45.53% over 3 months, -46.12% over 6 months), indicating this is a company-specific de-rating rather than broad market weakness, and the most recent session's +3.19% bounce off the $207.75 prior close is a single-day reprieve within a still-intact downtrend. Key technical levels are well defined: the $182.34 52-week low is the critical support zone, and a breakdown below it would likely trigger further momentum-driven selling, while the $441.43 52-week high stands as distant resistance with intermediate supply clustered around $260-$290 where the stock repeatedly failed in August. With a beta of 1.818, MTZ is roughly 82% more volatile than the market, meaning position sizing should be materially smaller than a market-weight allocation and stop-loss discipline is essential given the elevated short ratio of 3.21 and the potential for sharp, news-driven gap moves in either direction.
Beta
1.82
1.82x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-52.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$182-$441
Price range past year
Annual Return
+7.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -21.2% | -0.5% |
| 3m | -43.5% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -28.7% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +7.5% | +14.8% |
| ytd | -5.8% | +11.7% |
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MTZ Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing robustly, with Q1 2026 revenue of $3.829 billion representing 34.45% year-over-year growth versus Q1 2025's $2.848 billion, and the multi-quarter trend shows sequential expansion from $3.544 billion in Q2 2025 to $3.967 billion in Q3 2025 and $3.940 billion in Q4 2025. Segment data shows Clean Energy and Infrastructure as the largest contributor at $1.329 billion, followed by Communications at $802 million and Pipeline Infrastructure at $683 million, indicating the growth is broad-based but led by renewable and power-related construction. The key tension is that this top-line acceleration has not translated into commensurate earnings power, and the investment case now depends on whether revenue growth can convert into margin expansion as the backlog is executed. Profitability is thin and volatile: Q1 2026 net income was $69.7 million on a 1.82% net margin, down sharply from Q4 2025's $142.7 million (3.62% net margin) and Q3 2025's $160.7 million (4.05% net margin), while gross margin compressed to 9.30% in Q1 2026 from 10.08% in Q4 2025 and 13.56% in Q3 2025. The trailing gross margin of 9.55% and operating margin of 4.56% are characteristic of low-margin, pass-through-heavy construction contracting, but the sequential compression is a red flag that mix, project pricing, or cost inflation is pressuring profitability. The company remains profitable on a trailing basis with EPS of $0.024 and ROE of 12.24%, but the quarterly EPS decline from $2.07 in Q3 2025 to $0.78 in Q1 2026 illustrates how quickly earnings can swing in this business model. The balance sheet is leveraged but manageable, with debt-to-equity of 0.859, a current ratio of 1.323, and ROA of 5.28%, while free cash flow tells a more cautionary story: TTM FCF is just $256.7 million against a $16.9 billion market cap, implying a FCF yield of roughly 1.5%, and Q1 2026 free cash flow collapsed to just $2.1 million from $292.5 million in Q4 2025. The Q1 2026 cash flow statement shows $96.8 million of capital expenditure, $266.9 million of acquisitions, and a $145.1 million working capital drag, with cash falling to $273.7 million from $396.0 million, suggesting the company is consuming cash to fund growth and acquisitions rather than generating surplus liquidity. With a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio above 12,000x on the latest quarterly data, the company is heavily dependent on converting its backlog into cash flow, and any execution misstep would strain a balance sheet that already carries meaningful leverage.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.8B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+34.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
9.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$256714000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTZ Overvalued?
Because MasTec is profitable on a trailing basis (net income positive), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and the trailing PE of 42.46x stands in stark contrast to the forward PE of 17.08x, a roughly 60% compression that implies the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery over the next twelve months. That gap is the single most important valuation signal in the dataset: investors are being asked to look through currently depressed earnings toward consensus EPS estimates averaging $25.08, which would represent an extraordinary rebound from the trailing EPS of $0.024. The credibility of that forward estimate is the crux of the bull-bear debate, and the stock's 43.5% three-month decline suggests the market is increasingly skeptical of the timeline. Relative to the Engineering & Construction sector, MTZ's 42.46x trailing PE and 1.18x PS ratio present a mixed picture: the PS ratio of 1.18x is modest for a company growing revenue at 34% year-over-year, but the trailing PE premium reflects the earnings trough rather than a structural valuation premium. The PEG ratio of 0.293 appears exceptionally attractive on paper, but it is distorted by the depressed trailing earnings base and should not be relied upon without confirming the forward EPS trajectory. The EV/EBITDA of 17.33x and EV/Sales of 1.21x are more stable measures and suggest the enterprise is not being priced at distressed levels despite the equity drawdown, implying the market still assigns value to the backlog and asset base. Historically, MTZ's PE ratio has ranged from the low 20s to over 100x during earnings troughs, and the current 42.46x sits in the middle of that band but well above the 25.7x recorded in Q3 2025 and the 29.7x in Q4 2025 when earnings were stronger. The PS ratio of 1.18x, by contrast, is near the low end of its historical range (versus 4.30x in Q4 2025 and 6.55x in Q1 2026 on the historical ratios data), which suggests the market has aggressively de-rated the revenue multiple even as revenue grows. This divergence between a mid-range PE and a historically low PS indicates the market is pricing in margin deterioration rather than revenue collapse, and a return of the PS multiple toward its 3-4x historical norm would imply substantial upside if profitability stabilizes.
PE
42.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 14x~147x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. The company carries debt-to-equity of 0.859 and a current ratio of 1.323, leaving limited cushion if cash flow remains weak. Q1 2026 free cash flow was just $2.1 million, a sharp decline from $292.5 million in Q4 2025, and TTM FCF of $256.7 million yields only 1.5% against a $16.9 billion market cap. Gross margin compressed to 9.30% in Q1 2026 from 13.56% in Q3 2025, and net margin fell to 1.82%, highlighting earnings volatility and thin profitability. The business is also concentrated in large-scale infrastructure projects, where a slowdown in telecom or clean energy spending could quickly impact revenue and margins.
Market and competitive risks are elevated. MTZ trades at a trailing PE of 42.46x, a premium to the broader market, and any failure to meet the forward EPS estimate of $25.08 could trigger multiple compression. The stock's beta of 1.818 means it is roughly 82% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside during sector rotations or macro headwinds. The Engineering & Construction sector is competitive, and MasTec's low-margin model leaves little room for pricing pressure or cost inflation. Recent news highlights AI-driven demand, but if data center buildout slows or telecom carriers reduce capex, the record backlog may not convert as expected. Additionally, the wide analyst target spread ($321 to $518) signals uncertainty, and the market's aggressive de-rating suggests concerns not yet reflected in ratings.
In a worst-case scenario, a continued margin deterioration, cash flow strain, and failure to meet forward earnings estimates could drive the stock toward its 52-week low of $182.34, representing a 15% decline from the current price of $214.38. If the company misses guidance and analysts downgrade, the stock could retest the low and potentially break below it, especially given the high short ratio of 3.21 and elevated beta. A more severe scenario, such as a recession reducing infrastructure spending, could push the stock toward the analyst low target of $321? No, that's above current. Actually, the analyst low target is $321, which is above current, so the downside is more about the 52-week low. From the current price, a drop to $182.34 would be a loss of about 15%. However, if the stock breaks below the 52-week low, the next support is unclear, and a 20-30% decline from current levels is possible in a severe downturn. The max drawdown of 52.5% from the 52-week high already shows the potential for significant losses.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: high debt-to-equity of 0.859 and free cash flow yield of only 1.5%, with Q1 2026 FCF of just $2.1 million. 2) Operational risk: gross margin compressed to 9.30% from 13.56% in Q3 2025, and net margin fell to 1.82%, showing earnings volatility. 3) Market risk: beta of 1.818 means the stock is 82% more volatile than the market, and relative strength versus SPY is deeply negative. 4) Company-specific risk: the wide analyst target spread and the disconnect between the $416.95 average target and the $214.38 market price suggest potential negative information not yet reflected. The most severe risk is a failure to meet the forward EPS estimate of $25.08, which could trigger a sharp selloff.
The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: bull case (25% probability) with a target range of $416-$518, assuming AI-driven demand accelerates and margins recover; base case (50% probability) with a target range of $280-$350, assuming moderate growth and gradual margin stabilization; and bear case (25% probability) with a target range of $182-$220, assuming margin pressure persists and the stock breaks below the 52-week low. The base case is most likely, with the key assumption that revenue growth decelerates to 15-20% and gross margin stabilizes around 10%. The analyst average target of $416.95 aligns with the bull case, but the market's current skepticism suggests the base case is more realistic.
On a trailing basis, MTZ appears overvalued with a PE of 42.46x, but on a forward basis, the PE of 17.08x suggests it is undervalued if earnings recover as expected. The PS ratio of 1.18x is near historical lows, indicating the market has de-rated the revenue multiple despite 34.45% growth. The EV/EBITDA of 17.33x is moderate for the sector. The valuation implies the market expects a significant earnings recovery, but the wide analyst target range ($321-$518) and the stock's 43.5% decline show skepticism. Relative to its own history, the PS ratio is attractive, but the trailing PE is mid-range. Overall, the stock is fairly valued to undervalued on forward metrics, but overvalued on trailing metrics.
MTZ is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The analyst consensus is a strong buy with an average target of $416.95, implying 94.5% upside, but the stock has fallen 43.5% in three months and is trading near its 52-week low. The biggest downside risk is a continued margin compression and cash flow deterioration, which could drive the stock below $182.34. For investors with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility, it could be a good buy if they believe in the AI infrastructure narrative and the forward EPS estimate of $25.08. However, for risk-averse investors, the current technical breakdown and fundamental uncertainties make it a hold at best.
MTZ is more suitable for long-term investment, given its growth stage and the need for a turnaround in margins and cash flow. The stock does not pay a dividend (payout ratio 0), so returns depend on capital appreciation. The high beta of 1.818 and 52.5% max drawdown make it volatile, unsuitable for short-term trading unless one is skilled at timing. Earnings visibility is low due to the wide analyst target range and recent volatility. A suggested minimum holding period is 2-3 years to allow for the AI infrastructure buildout to materialize and for the company to demonstrate consistent margin expansion and free cash flow generation. Short-term traders should be aware of the high short ratio of 3.21 and potential for sharp moves.