MasTec
MTZ
$186.06
+4.63%
MasTec, Inc. is a North American infrastructure construction company that engineers, builds, installs, maintains, and upgrades communications, power delivery, clean energy, pipeline, and other utility infrastructure, operating through five reporting segments: Communications, Clean Energy and Infrastructure, Power Delivery, Pipeline Infrastructure, and Other. With roughly 37,000 employees and a diversified end-market footprint, MasTec occupies a distinctive position as a large-scale specialty contractor that sits at the intersection of several secular buildouts — fiber and 5G densification, grid modernization, renewable generation, and data-center-driven power demand — rather than being a pure-play on any single theme. The current investor narrative centers on whether MasTec can convert record backlog and AI/data-center-driven electrical infrastructure demand into durable earnings growth, with management having raised 2026 EPS guidance toward a roughly 42% growth outlook while sell-side commentary simultaneously flags execution risk and a premium valuation. That tension — strong fundamental momentum against a stock that has de-rated violently — is the core debate, compounded by competitive pressure from peers such as Dycom, Sterling, and EMCOR that are also posting record backlogs and margin expansion.…
MTZ
MasTec
$186.06
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTZ Today?
The synthesized recommendation is a Hold, balancing the strong fundamental momentum against the severe technical breakdown and execution risks. The analyst consensus is a strong buy with an average target of $360.14, implying 110.5% upside, but the stock's 54.5% six-month decline and proximity to its 52-week low suggest caution. The core thesis is that MasTec's 23.4% revenue growth and record backlog are attractive, but the market is demanding proof of margin expansion and cash flow generation before re-rating the shares.
Supporting evidence includes the forward PE of 13.81x, which is low relative to the trailing PE of 42.46x and suggests significant earnings growth is expected. Revenue growth of 23.38% YoY is robust, and the PS ratio of 1.18x is well below the sector average of 1.5-2.5x, offering a valuation cushion. However, profitability is thin with a net margin of 2.98%, and free cash flow yield is only 1.4%, which are key concerns. The implied upside to the average analyst target is substantial, but the wide target range ($240-$518) indicates low conviction.
Key risks include execution risk on the 42% EPS growth guidance, potential margin compression from competitive pressures, and the high beta of 1.843 which amplifies downside in market downturns. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock stabilizes above $200 and shows improving margins, or downgrade to Sell if it breaks below $164.31 with deteriorating fundamentals. Relative to its history and peers, the stock appears undervalued on a forward basis but faces near-term headwinds.
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MTZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking view is cautiously neutral, balancing the attractive valuation and growth prospects against the severe technical damage and execution risks. The stock's 23.4% revenue growth and forward PE of 13.8x suggest it is priced for a significant earnings recovery, but the market is demanding proof. Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, yet the 49% three-month decline indicates a disconnect that may resolve through either a violent rally or further estimate cuts. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock forms a base above $200 and margins improve, and downgrade to bearish if it breaks below $164 with deteriorating fundamentals.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MasTec's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $360.14 and implied upside of +93.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$360.14
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+93.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$240 - $518
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust, with 21 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "strong_buy" (recommendation mean of 1.19 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is a strong buy). The average target price is $360.14, which against the current $171.05 implies roughly +110.5% upside — an unusually large gap that reflects either a significant disconnect between fundamental expectations and price action, or stale targets that have not yet been revised downward following the recent collapse. The consensus clearly leans bullish, and the estimated 2026 EPS average of $23.55 (range $22.34-$24.45) and revenue average of $30.39 billion (range $29.19-$31.28 billion) suggest analysts expect a dramatic earnings recovery that the stock price is not currently crediting.
The target range is extremely wide — from a low of $240.00 to a high of $518.00, a spread of 116% of the low end — which signals high uncertainty and low conviction despite the bullish headline rating. The high target of $518 implies roughly 203% upside and would require both multiple expansion back toward historical PS levels and delivery of the full earnings recovery embedded in consensus. Notably, even the low target of $240 sits 40.3% above the current price, meaning no analyst's published target is below the market — a pattern that often precedes a wave of downgrades and target cuts if the stock does not stabilize. Institutional ratings show a wall of reiterated Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings from Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, UBS, TD Cowen, KeyBanc, Truist, Baird, Citigroup, and Guggenheim between July and September 2026, with no downgrades in the visible data — but these are reiterations rather than upgrades, and the absence of fresh positive catalysts alongside a 49% three-month decline suggests the ratings are lagging the price. The wide spread and unanimous bullishness against a collapsing stock is a classic setup for either a violent mean-reversion rally or a painful round of estimate and target revisions.
Bulls vs Bears: MTZ Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to the relentless selling pressure and deteriorating technicals, with the stock down 54.5% in six months and trading near its 52-week low. However, the bull case is supported by accelerating revenue growth (23.4% YoY), a forward PE of 13.8x, and a strong buy consensus with 110% upside to the average target. The core tension is whether the market is correctly pricing fundamental deterioration or if the stock has been oversold relative to its growth trajectory and record backlog. Resolution hinges on the company's ability to deliver on its 42% EPS growth guidance and reverse the negative momentum.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating at 23% YoY: Q2 2026 revenue of $4.374B grew 23.38% YoY from $3.545B, with sequential acceleration from $3.829B in Q1 2026. The run-rate now exceeds $17B annually, driven by broad-based strength across Clean Energy ($1.622B), Power Delivery ($1.246B), and Communications ($889M).
- Forward PE of 13.8x implies deep value: The forward PE of 13.81x is 67% below the trailing PE of 42.46x, reflecting consensus EPS of $23.55 for 2026 versus a depressed trailing EPS of $0.024. This compression suggests the market is pricing a dramatic earnings inflection that has not yet been fully credited.
- Analyst consensus strong buy with 110% upside: All 21 analysts rate the stock a strong buy (mean 1.19), with an average target of $360.14 implying 110.5% upside from $171.05. Even the lowest target of $240 is 40.3% above the current price, indicating a significant disconnect between analyst expectations and market pricing.
- Record backlog and AI-driven demand: Management raised 2026 EPS guidance to ~42% growth, citing record backlog and AI/data-center-driven electrical infrastructure demand. Recent news highlights MasTec's positioning to lead the next infrastructure investment cycle, with secular tailwinds from grid modernization and fiber densification.
Bearish
- Severe downtrend with 54.5% six-month decline: The stock has fallen 54.52% over six months and 49.37% over three months, with a max drawdown of -60.9%. It sits just 4.1% above its 52-week low of $164.31 and 61.3% below its 52-week high of $441.43, indicating a persistent selling pressure that shows no signs of abating.
- Thin and volatile margins: Net margin is only 2.98% in Q2 2026, with gross margin at 12.72% and operating margin at 5.17%. Margins have been erratic: gross margin swung from 9.30% in Q1 2026 to 12.72% in Q2 2026, and net margin from 1.82% to 2.98%, highlighting sensitivity to project mix and cost overruns.
- Weak free cash flow and high leverage: TTM FCF is only $244.8M against a $16.9B market cap, a FCF yield of 1.4%. Q2 2026 FCF was -$70.1M due to $187.8M working capital consumption, and debt-to-equity stands at 0.859 with interest coverage of ~4.8x, leaving limited financial cushion.
- Relative underperformance vs. SPY: The stock has underperformed SPY by 20.34 percentage points in the last month, 52.22 points over three months, and 60.97 points over six months. With a beta of 1.843, this high volatility amplifies downside during market stress, as evidenced by the 25% collapse from $228.30 to $171.05 in under three weeks.
MTZ Technical Analysis
MasTec is in a severe, sustained downtrend that has overwhelmed any longer-term recovery narrative. The stock is down 16.53% over the trailing year, but that headline figure badly understates the damage: it has fallen 54.52% over six months and 49.37% over three months, with a max drawdown of -60.9%. At a current price of $171.05, the stock sits just 4.1% above its 52-week low of $164.31 and a staggering 61.3% below its 52-week high of $441.43 — effectively trading at the very bottom of its 52-week range (roughly 2.4% of the range from the low). This is not a mild pullback; it is a falling-knife configuration where every rally attempt has been sold, and the burden of proof now rests entirely on a confirmed base rather than on mean-reversion hope.
Short-term momentum is unambiguously negative and accelerating to the downside. The stock is down 21.36% over the past month versus a -1.02% move in SPY, producing a relative strength of -20.34 percentage points in just 30 days; over three months the relative underperformance widens to -52.22 points and over six months to -60.97 points. Critically, the 1-month decline (-21.4%) is steeper than the 1-year decline (-16.5%), meaning the downtrend is not decelerating but re-intensifying — the opposite of the deceleration pattern that typically precedes a bottom. The most recent price action confirms this: the stock fell from $228.30 on October 6 to $171.05 on October 23, a roughly 25% collapse in under three weeks, including a sharp gap from $194.46 to $191.63 and then a breakdown through $180 on October 21-22. Volume of about 1.29 million shares on the latest session suggests capitulation-style selling rather than quiet drift.
Key technical levels are starkly defined. Support is the 52-week low at $164.31, only about 4% below the current $171.05 — a break there would put the stock in uncharted territory with no visible floor and likely trigger further momentum-driven selling. Resistance is layered: the psychological $200 level, then the October 6 swing high of $228.30, and ultimately the 52-week high of $441.43, which is now 158% above the current price and functionally irrelevant near-term. With a beta of 1.843, MasTec is roughly 84% more volatile than the market, meaning a 10% SPY drawdown could translate to an 18%+ move in MTZ — a critical consideration for position sizing, as the stock's high beta amplifies both the current downside momentum and any eventual reversal. The short ratio of 2.95 days-to-cover is moderate and does not suggest an imminent squeeze catalyst.
Beta
1.84
1.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-60.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$164-$441
Price range past year
Annual Return
-13.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -12.9% | -0.9% |
| 3m | -29.3% | +1.2% |
| 6m | -55.4% | +4.9% |
| 1y | -13.0% | +11.2% |
| ytd | -18.3% | +10.8% |
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MTZ Fundamental Analysis
MasTec's revenue trajectory is genuinely strong and accelerating, which makes the stock's collapse all the more notable. Q2 2026 revenue came in at $4.374 billion, up 23.38% year-over-year from $3.545 billion in Q2 2025, and up sequentially from $3.829 billion in Q1 2026. The multi-quarter trend is one of clear acceleration: Q1 2025 revenue was $2.848 billion, Q2 2025 $3.545 billion, Q3 2025 $3.967 billion, Q4 2025 $3.940 billion, Q1 2026 $3.829 billion, and Q2 2026 $4.374 billion — a run-rate that annualizes above $17 billion. Segment data shows Clean Energy and Infrastructure as the largest contributor at $1.622 billion, followed by Power Delivery at $1.246 billion, Communications at $889 million, and Pipeline Infrastructure at $643 million, indicating the growth is broad-based across grid, renewables, and connectivity end-markets rather than dependent on a single vertical.
Profitability is positive but thin and volatile, which is the crux of the bear case. Q2 2026 net income was $130.1 million on $4.374 billion of revenue, a net margin of just 2.98%, with gross margin of 12.72% and operating margin of 5.17%. The quarter-over-quarter margin path is erratic: gross margin was 9.30% in Q1 2026, 12.72% in Q2 2026, 10.08% in Q4 2025, and 13.56% in Q3 2025, while net margin swung from 1.82% in Q1 2026 to 2.98% in Q2 2026. Trailing gross margin of 9.55% and operating margin of 4.56% are typical-to-low for specialty construction contractors, where low-single-digit net margins are structural — but the volatility quarter-to-quarter signals project mix and cost-overrun sensitivity. EPS of $1.67 in Q2 2026 versus $0.78 in Q1 2026 and $1.10 in Q2 2025 shows earnings leverage is real when execution is clean, but the trailing EPS of just $0.024 (per key metrics) versus quarterly diluted EPS of $1.65 highlights how much of the trailing figure is distorted by weaker prior periods.
Balance sheet and cash flow are adequate but not a source of strength. Debt-to-equity stands at 0.859, current ratio at 1.323, and ROE at 12.24% with ROA of 5.28% — reasonable for the industry but leaving limited cushion. Free cash flow is the weak spot: TTM FCF is $244.8 million against a $16.9 billion market cap, a FCF yield of roughly 1.4%, and quarterly FCF has been highly erratic — -$70.1 million in Q2 2026, +$2.1 million in Q1 2026, +$292.5 million in Q4 2025, and +$20.3 million in Q3 2025. Q2 2026 operating cash flow was only $21.5 million against $91.5 million of capex, and working capital consumed $187.8 million in the quarter, reflecting the receivables-heavy nature of construction. With interest expense of $47.2 million in Q2 2026 and interest coverage of roughly 4.8x, the company can service debt, but the combination of thin margins, working-capital drag, and modest FCF means growth is partly reliant on balance-sheet capacity rather than pure internal funding.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.4B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+23.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
12.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$244804000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTZ Overvalued?
Because MasTec is profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $130.1 million; TTM net income positive), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, though the trailing figure is distorted by a very weak prior-year base. The trailing PE is 42.46x against a forward PE of just 13.81x — an extraordinary 67% compression that implies the market expects earnings to roughly triple. That gap is consistent with the consensus 2026 EPS estimate of $23.55 versus a trailing EPS of about $0.024, and it tells us the market is pricing a dramatic earnings inflection that has not yet been delivered in reported results. The PEG ratio of 0.293 is superficially very attractive, but it is computed off a depressed trailing earnings base and should be treated with skepticism.
On peer-relative metrics, the picture is more balanced than the trailing PE suggests. The PS ratio of 1.18x and EV/Sales of 1.03x are low in absolute terms for a company growing revenue 23% year-over-year, and the EV/EBITDA of 17.33x is moderate for an infrastructure contractor with record backlog. Against a sector where engineering and construction peers often trade at 1.5-2.5x sales, MasTec's 1.18x PS represents a meaningful discount — arguably a 20-50% discount to typical sector levels — which is unusual given its superior growth rate and scale. The PB ratio of 5.19x is elevated relative to the 1.0-2.0x range typical of asset-heavy contractors, reflecting the company's modest book value relative to its earnings power rather than an asset premium. Net margin of 2.79% and gross margin of 9.55% are below the 4-6% net margins of best-in-class peers, which partially justifies a discount but not one of this magnitude.
Historical context is the most damning data point. MasTec's own PE ratio was 62.28x in Q2 2026, 103.12x in Q1 2026, 29.70x in Q4 2025, and 25.70x in Q3 2025, while its PS ratio ranged from 7.43x in Q2 2026 down to 4.17x in Q3 2025. The current PS of 1.18x is roughly 72-84% below those levels — a collapse to the bottom of its own multi-year valuation band, and below even the 1.80x PS seen in Q4 2023. The PB ratio of 5.19x compares to 9.34x in Q2 2026 and 3.16x in Q1 2025, placing it mid-range historically. The interpretation is binary: either the market is correctly pricing fundamental deterioration and margin compression that the reported Q2 numbers have not yet captured, or the stock has been indiscriminately sold to a level that embeds excessive pessimism relative to a 23% revenue growth rate and record backlog.
PE
42.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 14x~147x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
MasTec faces financial and operational risks stemming from its thin margins and working capital intensity. Net margin is only 2.98% in Q2 2026, and gross margin has been volatile, ranging from 9.30% to 13.56% over the past four quarters, indicating sensitivity to project mix and cost overruns. Free cash flow is weak, with TTM FCF of $244.8M (1.4% yield) and negative $70.1M in Q2 2026 due to $187.8M working capital consumption. Debt-to-equity of 0.859 and interest coverage of ~4.8x leave limited cushion, and the company's growth relies partly on balance sheet capacity rather than internal funding.
Market and competitive risks are significant given the stock's high beta of 1.843 and severe relative underperformance. The shares have underperformed SPY by 60.97 percentage points over six months, and the downtrend is accelerating, with a 21.36% decline in the past month alone. Valuation compression risk is evident as the PS ratio has collapsed to 1.18x from 7.43x in Q2 2026, reflecting a massive de-rating. Competition from peers like Dycom, Sterling, and EMCOR, which are also posting record backlogs and margin expansion, could pressure MasTec's market share and pricing power.
In a worst-case scenario, a continued breakdown below the 52-week low of $164.31 could trigger further momentum-driven selling, with no visible technical floor. Given the beta of 1.843, a market correction could amplify losses, and if the company misses its 2026 EPS guidance or fails to convert backlog into profitable revenue, the stock could retest historical lows. From the current price of $171.05, a drop to the 52-week low represents a 4% loss, but a more severe scenario aligning with the bear-case target of $164.31 would be -4%, while a broader market selloff could push it lower, potentially to the $150s, implying a 12-15% downside.
FAQ
The key risks include financial, competitive, macro, and company-specific factors. Financially, thin net margins of 2.98% and weak free cash flow yield of 1.4% leave little room for error. Competitively, peers like Dycom and Sterling are also posting record backlogs, potentially pressuring pricing. Macro risks are amplified by the high beta of 1.843, meaning a market downturn could hit MTZ twice as hard. Company-specific risks include execution on the 42% EPS growth guidance and the risk of analyst downgrades given the wide target range. The most severe risk is a break below the 52-week low, which could lead to a further 20-30% decline.
The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: bull (25% probability) targeting $360-$518, base (50%) targeting $240-$360, and bear (25%) targeting $164-$240. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue meets consensus of $30.39B and margins stabilize, leading to a price around the analyst average target of $360. The key assumption is that MasTec delivers on its EPS guidance of $23.55, which would justify a higher multiple. However, the bear case cannot be dismissed given the current technical weakness and high beta.
MTZ appears undervalued on forward metrics but fairly valued to overvalued on trailing metrics. The forward PE of 13.81x is low for a company growing revenue at 23.4%, and the PS ratio of 1.18x is well below the sector average of 1.5-2.5x. However, the trailing PE of 42.46x is elevated due to depressed trailing earnings. The market is pricing in a dramatic earnings recovery, as evidenced by the 67% compression between trailing and forward PE. Relative to its own history, the PS ratio is at multi-year lows, suggesting the market expects significant challenges. Overall, the valuation implies the market is skeptical of the growth story, but if the company delivers, the stock is undervalued.
From a risk/reward perspective, MTZ presents a compelling but high-risk opportunity. The stock trades at a forward PE of 13.81x, which is significantly below its trailing PE of 42.46x, and the average analyst target of $360.14 implies 110.5% upside. However, the severe downtrend, with a 54.5% decline over six months and a high beta of 1.843, means the downside risk is equally pronounced. The biggest downside risk is a break below the 52-week low of $164.31, which could trigger further selling. For risk-tolerant investors with a long-term view, the stock could be a good buy on stabilization, but conservative investors should wait for a confirmed base.
MTZ is more suitable for long-term investment given its growth stage and secular tailwinds, but the high volatility (beta 1.843) and lack of dividend make it unsuitable for income-focused investors. The stock's earnings visibility is improving with record backlog, but the thin margins and erratic cash flow require a longer horizon to smooth out quarterly fluctuations. Short-term trading is risky due to the severe downtrend and potential for further downside. A suggested minimum holding period is 2-3 years to allow for the infrastructure spending cycle to play out and for margin expansion to materialize.