MasTec
MTZ
$268.28
-1.53%
MasTec, Inc. is a leading infrastructure construction company operating primarily in North America, providing engineering, building, installation, and maintenance services across communications, clean energy, pipeline, and power delivery sectors. As a major player in the Engineering & Construction industry, MasTec distinguishes itself through its diversified service portfolio and scale, with approximately 36,000 employees. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust revenue growth, driven by strong demand in clean energy and infrastructure projects, alongside concerns about margin pressures and recent stock volatility following a sharp pullback from its 52-week high.…
MTZ
MasTec
$268.28
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTZ Today?
Based on the synthesis of data, MTZ is rated a Buy. The thesis is that MasTec's robust revenue growth (34.5% YoY) and improving profitability (net income up 604% YoY) are not fully reflected in the current valuation, offering a compelling risk/reward. The analyst consensus of Strong Buy with an average target of $433.63 supports this view, implying a 67.7% upside.
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MTZ 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The company's strong revenue growth and improving profitability, combined with a favorable valuation (PEG 0.29), suggest the stock is undervalued. However, the high beta and recent volatility warrant caution. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if gross margins show a clear recovery trend in the next two quarters. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth falls below 15% or if the stock breaks below its 52-week low.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MasTec's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $427.21 and implied upside of +59.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$427.21
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+59.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$340 - $518
Analyst target range
MasTec has coverage from 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.2 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $433.63, implying a substantial upside of +67.7% from the current price of $258.63. The analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with no Sell ratings and recent actions including upgrades from Guggenheim (from Neutral to Buy) and reaffirmations of Buy/Outperform ratings from TD Cowen, Baird, Cantor Fitzgerald, Mizuho, and Truist Securities. The target price range spans from a low of $340.00 to a high of $518.00, with the low target still representing a +31.5% upside, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees significant value. The wide spread between low and high targets (52.4% difference) reflects uncertainty about the pace of margin recovery and project execution, but the overall bullish consensus and recent upgrades suggest that analysts view the recent sell-off as an overreaction to short-term headwinds, with the high target implying a return to the stock's previous highs and beyond.
Bulls vs Bears: MTZ Investment Factors
MasTec presents a classic high-growth, high-volatility investment case. The bull case is anchored by exceptional revenue growth (34.5% YoY), a strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy, 67.7% upside), and a compelling PEG ratio of 0.29. However, the bear case highlights significant margin compression (gross margin down to 9.3%), a sharp 41.4% drawdown from highs, and high beta (1.837) that could exacerbate losses in a downturn. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the accelerating growth and analyst conviction, but the key tension is whether margin recovery can materialize as revenue scales. If gross margins return to the 13.6% level seen in Q3 2025, the stock could re-rate significantly; if margins remain depressed, the forward PE premium becomes unjustified.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating at 34.5% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $3.83 billion grew 34.5% year-over-year, up from $2.85 billion in Q1 2025. This marks the third consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth, with Q4 2025 at $3.94 billion and Q3 2025 at $3.97 billion, indicating strong demand across clean energy and infrastructure projects.
- Analyst consensus Strong Buy with 67.7% upside: 19 analysts rate MTZ a Strong Buy with a mean recommendation of 1.2 (1=Strong Buy). The average target price of $433.63 implies a 67.7% upside from the current price of $258.63, with even the lowest target of $340.00 offering a 31.5% gain.
- PEG ratio of 0.29 signals undervaluation: With a forward PE of 20.5x and expected EPS growth of over 100% (trailing PE of 42.5x), the PEG ratio of 0.29 suggests the stock is trading well below its growth potential. This indicates the market is not fully pricing in the company's earnings acceleration.
- Profitability turnaround with net income up 7x: Q1 2026 net income of $69.7 million surged from $9.9 million in Q1 2025, a 604% increase. Operating margin expanded to 3.7% from 1.3% year-over-year, demonstrating operational leverage as revenue scales.
Bearish
- Stock down 41.4% from 52-week high: MTZ trades at $258.63, 41.4% below its 52-week high of $441.43. The stock has fallen 27.9% in the past month alone, underperforming the S&P 500 by 30.7% over that period, indicating significant negative momentum.
- Gross margin compression to 9.3%: Q1 2026 gross margin of 9.3% is down from 10.9% in Q1 2025 and well below the 13.6% achieved in Q3 2025. This margin pressure, driven by project mix and input costs, could persist and limit earnings growth.
- High beta of 1.837 amplifies market risk: With a beta of 1.837, MTZ is nearly twice as volatile as the market. In a rising rate environment or economic downturn, the stock could experience outsized declines, as evidenced by its 40.9% max drawdown.
- Free cash flow weakness in Q1: Q1 2026 free cash flow was only $2.1 million despite $98.9 million in operating cash flow, due to heavy working capital investment. This could constrain financial flexibility and increase reliance on debt, which stands at a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86.
MTZ Technical Analysis
MasTec's stock has exhibited a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +41.24%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +21.46% gain. However, the current price of $258.63 sits at only 58.6% of its 52-week range (between $167.66 and $441.43), indicating a substantial retracement from the highs. This positioning suggests that while the long-term trend remains bullish, the stock has corrected sharply, potentially offering a value opportunity if the underlying fundamentals remain intact, or signaling a falling knife if the decline reflects deteriorating conditions.
Beta
1.84
1.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$168-$441
Price range past year
Annual Return
+48.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -28.1% | +2.4% |
| 3m | -36.2% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +1.2% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +48.0% | +21.3% |
| ytd | +17.8% | +13.4% |
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MTZ Fundamental Analysis
MasTec's revenue trajectory is strongly positive, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $3.83 billion, a 34.45% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as evidenced by sequential quarterly revenues of $3.94 billion in Q4 2025, $3.97 billion in Q3 2025, and $3.54 billion in Q2 2025, indicating a robust demand environment. Revenue segments show Clean Energy and Infrastructure leading at $1.33 billion, followed by Communications at $802 million and Pipeline Infrastructure at $683 million, with the clean energy segment likely driving the growth. The company's profitability is improving, with Q1 2026 net income of $69.7 million, a significant turnaround from the $9.9 million in Q1 2025, and gross margin expanding to 9.3% from 10.9% in the prior year quarter, though still below the 13.6% seen in Q3 2025. Operating margin for Q1 2026 was 3.7%, up from 1.3% in Q1 2025, reflecting operational leverage. MasTec's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86, which is moderate for the capital-intensive construction industry, and a current ratio of 1.32, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $256.7 million, though Q1 2026 free cash flow was only $2.1 million due to heavy working capital investment, and the company generated $98.9 million in operating cash flow in Q1 2026. ROE stands at 12.2%, and the company has no dividend, reinvesting earnings for growth.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.8B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+34.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
9.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$256714000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTZ Overvalued?
Given MasTec's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 42.46x, while the forward PE is 20.50x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a forward earnings growth rate of over 100%, which is optimistic but supported by the company's recent revenue acceleration. Compared to the industry average, MasTec's forward PE of 20.5x is at a premium to the sector's typical multiple, but this premium is justified by its superior growth profile and strategic positioning in clean energy infrastructure. Historically, MasTec's trailing PE has ranged from as low as 14x in 2021 to over 100x in early 2026, with the current 42.46x near the middle of its historical band. The PEG ratio of 0.29 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, indicating that the market may not be fully pricing in the company's earnings potential.
PE
42.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 14x~147x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial. MasTec's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86 indicates moderate leverage, which is typical for capital-intensive construction but could strain cash flows if interest rates remain high. The company's Q1 2026 free cash flow of just $2.1 million, despite $98.9 million in operating cash flow, highlights significant working capital needs that could pressure liquidity. Gross margin compression to 9.3% from 10.9% a year ago suggests cost pressures that could erode profitability if not managed. Additionally, the company's reliance on continued revenue growth to justify its forward PE of 20.5x means any slowdown could lead to earnings disappointment and multiple contraction.
FAQ
The key risks are: (1) Margin compression, with gross margin down to 9.3% from 10.9% a year ago, which could persist and limit earnings growth; (2) High beta of 1.837, making the stock sensitive to market downturns; (3) Financial risk from debt-to-equity of 0.86 and weak Q1 free cash flow of $2.1 million; (4) Competitive and regulatory risks in the construction industry. The most severe risk is a combination of margin erosion and a market correction, which could push the stock down 35% to its 52-week low.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $433.63 (67.7% upside) and a bull case target of $518.00 (100.3% upside). The bear case target is $167.66 (35.2% downside). The base case has a 50% probability, assuming revenue growth above 20% and stable margins. The bull case (30% probability) requires margin recovery, while the bear case (20% probability) involves margin deterioration and growth slowdown. Overall, the most likely scenario is a recovery towards the analyst average target.
MTZ is undervalued relative to its growth potential. The forward PE of 20.5x is at a premium to the industry average, but the PEG ratio of 0.29 indicates that the market is not fully pricing in the expected earnings growth of over 100%. Historically, the trailing PE of 42.5x is within its historical range, but the forward PE suggests the market expects significant earnings expansion. Given the strong revenue growth and analyst targets, the stock appears undervalued.
MTZ is a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon. The stock offers a 67.7% upside to the analyst average target of $433.63, and the PEG ratio of 0.29 suggests it is undervalued relative to its growth. However, the stock has fallen 41.4% from its 52-week high and has high beta (1.837), so it is not suitable for conservative investors. If you believe in the clean energy infrastructure growth story and can withstand volatility, MTZ is a compelling buy.
MTZ is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its high beta (1.837) and volatility, which makes short-term trading risky. The company's growth drivers in clean energy and infrastructure are secular, providing multi-year tailwinds. The lack of a dividend means investors rely on capital appreciation, which is better captured over a longer period. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and benefit from earnings growth.