Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PARR
$80.18
-5.34%
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an independent downstream energy company operating three reportable segments — Refining, Retail, and Logistics — that together produce and distribute ultra-low-sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, and LSFO across Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, the Rockies, and the Southwest. The company is a regionally focused, niche refiner rather than a global integrated major, deriving the overwhelming majority of its revenue from its refining operations while leveraging its logistics and retail arms to capture integrated margin. The current investor narrative is dominated by an extraordinary refining-margin windfall: geopolitical supply disruptions (notably the Iran conflict referenced in recent energy headlines) have driven gasoline and diesel crack spreads to multi-decade highs, and Par Pacific's Q2 2026 results reflect this dramatically, with revenue up 56.8% year-over-year and net income of $462 million in a single quarter. Investors are now debating whether these windfall margins are sustainable or cyclical peak earnings, a tension reflected in the stock's 126% one-year gain alongside a recent 6.6% single-day pullback and a wide analyst target range.…
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$80.18
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy PARR Today?
The synthesized recommendation is a Hold, balancing the company's exceptional current profitability against the high uncertainty of sustaining peak refining margins. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $86.71, implying 5.9% upside, but the wide target range ($65 to $104) reflects divergent views on margin sustainability. While the stock is statistically cheap (forward P/E of 5.44), the market is clearly pricing in a normalization of earnings, and the recent 6.6% single-day drop underscores the fragility of sentiment.
Supporting evidence for a Hold includes: 1) Revenue growth of 56.8% year-over-year in Q2 2026, but this is likely unsustainable; 2) Net margin of 4.95% on a trailing basis, which is thin and volatile; 3) Free cash flow of $439 million TTM, providing some cushion; 4) The stock trades at a price-to-book of 1.18, which is not expensive but not a deep value either. The implied upside to the average target is modest, and the downside to the low target is 20.6%, creating a balanced risk/reward.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis include a collapse in crack spreads due to easing geopolitical tensions, a broader economic slowdown reducing demand for refined products, and the company's high operating leverage. The rating would upgrade to Buy if refining margins show signs of structural support (e.g., capacity constraints persist) and the stock pulls back to the mid-$70s, or downgrade to Sell if forward earnings estimates are revised sharply lower or if the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $33.21. Relative to peers, Par Pacific's P/E is lower than the industry average, but this reflects its cyclical peak earnings; on a normalized basis, the stock appears fairly valued.
Sign up to view all
PARR 12-Month Price Forecast
Par Pacific presents a classic cyclical value dilemma: exceptionally low valuation multiples are based on peak earnings that may not persist. The bull case hinges on sustained geopolitical disruptions keeping refining margins elevated, while the bear case assumes a normalization that could cut earnings by more than half. The analyst consensus is moderately bullish, but the stock's recent underperformance and high short interest suggest caution. I would upgrade to bullish if Q3 2026 earnings confirm another quarter of strong margins and the company provides positive forward guidance. Conversely, I would downgrade to bearish if crack spreads narrow significantly or if the company reports an earnings miss.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $95.14 and implied upside of +18.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$95.14
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$85 - $117
Analyst target range
Bulls vs Bears: PARR Investment Factors
The bull case rests on Par Pacific's explosive Q2 2026 earnings, deeply discounted valuation, and strong analyst support, while the bear case centers on the unsustainable nature of current refining margins and recent relative underperformance. The evidence currently favors the bulls, given the 126% one-year return, 56.8% revenue growth, and a consensus Buy rating with a $86.71 average target. However, the single most important tension is whether the geopolitical supply disruptions that drove Q2's windfall will persist; if they fade, earnings could normalize sharply, rendering the low P/E a value trap. Conversely, if disruptions continue, the stock could re-rate toward the high target of $104. Investors must weigh the cyclical peak risk against the potential for sustained elevated margins.
Bullish
- Explosive Q2 2026 Earnings Surge: Q2 2026 net income reached $462.1 million, a 677% increase from $59.5 million in Q2 2025, driven by a 56.8% year-over-year revenue jump to $2.97 billion. This earnings power is reflected in quarterly EPS of $9.53, which alone exceeds the full-year 2025 EPS of $7.99.
- Deeply Undervalued on Earnings: The trailing P/E ratio is just 4.91 and the forward P/E is 5.44, both exceptionally low for a company with such strong profitability. The PEG ratio of -0.0037 is negative due to the trailing earnings spike, but the forward multiple suggests the market is pricing in a sharp earnings decline that may be too pessimistic.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: All 7 analysts rate the stock a Buy with an average target price of $86.71, implying 5.9% upside from the current $81.89. The high target of $104 suggests 27% upside if refining margins remain elevated, and the low target of $65 still represents a 20% downside cushion from the average.
- Robust Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $439.1 million, and the current ratio of 1.60 indicates ample liquidity. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 and interest coverage easily covered by operating income, the company has the financial flexibility to withstand a downturn.
Bearish
- Peak Cycle Earnings Risk: The Q2 2026 windfall was driven by geopolitical supply disruptions (Iran conflict) that sent crack spreads to multi-decade highs. If these disruptions ease, refining margins could revert to historical norms, causing earnings to plummet. The forward P/E of 5.44 implies the market expects EPS to fall from $9.53 to around $15 annualized, but a full normalization could see EPS drop below $5.
- Extreme Volatility and Recent Pullback: The stock has a beta of 0.754, but its recent price action shows high volatility: a 6.6% single-day drop on October 9, 2026, and a max drawdown of 26.73% over the past 180 days. The 52-week range is $33.21 to $89.45, a 169% spread, indicating significant uncertainty.
- Negative Relative Strength Recently: Over the past month, PARR has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.61 percentage points, with a -1.49% decline versus the index's 2.12% gain. This divergence suggests that the market may be rotating away from refiners as the geopolitical premium fades.
- High Short Interest Signals Skepticism: The short ratio of 5.47 indicates that it would take over five days of average trading volume to cover all short positions. This elevated short interest reflects persistent doubts about the sustainability of refining margins and the company's ability to generate consistent earnings.
PARR Technical Analysis
Beta
0.75
0.75x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-26.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$34-$91
Price range past year
Annual Return
+117.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PARR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.4% | -1.2% |
| 3m | +3.6% | +3.4% |
| 6m | +24.9% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +117.4% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +123.8% | +12.0% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
PARR Fundamental Analysis
Quarterly Revenue
$3.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+56.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
28.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$439121000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is PARR Overvalued?
PE
4.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant given Par Pacific's cyclical refining business. The company's Q2 2026 net income of $462 million was an outlier, driven by exceptional crack spreads; in contrast, Q1 2026 net income was only $54.5 million and Q4 2024 saw a net loss of $55.7 million. This earnings volatility, combined with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, means that a downturn in refining margins could quickly pressure cash flows and the balance sheet. Additionally, revenue is heavily concentrated in the Refining segment, which accounted for the vast majority of Q2 2026 revenue, leaving the company vulnerable to a single market dynamic.
Market and competitive risks include the potential for valuation compression if refining margins normalize. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 4.91, but this is based on peak earnings; if earnings revert to historical averages, the effective P/E could rise significantly, making the stock appear expensive. The beta of 0.754 suggests lower volatility than the broader market, but the stock has recently underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.61 percentage points over the past month, indicating sector rotation risk. Regulatory headwinds, such as potential environmental regulations on refining operations, and competitive pressures from larger integrated majors like Shell and HF Sinclair, could further challenge Par Pacific's niche positioning.
The worst-case scenario would involve a sharp reversal in geopolitical tensions, leading to a collapse in crack spreads and a return to loss-making quarters. In such a scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $33.21, representing a 59.4% decline from the current price of $81.89. Even a moderate downside to the analyst low target of $65 would imply a 20.6% loss. Given the max drawdown of 26.73% over the past 180 days, investors should be prepared for significant volatility and potential capital impairment if the cycle turns.
FAQ
The most severe risk is the cyclicality of refining margins: Q2 2026 earnings were exceptional, but a return to normal margins could cause earnings to plummet, as seen in Q4 2024 when the company lost $55.7 million. Second, the company has no dividend and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, so it relies on cash flow to service debt, which could be strained in a downturn. Third, geopolitical risks are double-edged: while they currently boost margins, a resolution could quickly reverse the windfall. Fourth, the stock is volatile, with a max drawdown of 26.73% in the past 180 days and a beta of 0.754, meaning it can underperform in market downturns. Finally, high short interest (short ratio 5.47) indicates bearish sentiment that could accelerate a selloff.
The 12-month forecast is highly dependent on refining margins. In the base case (50% probability), the stock trades between $80 and $90, assuming margins moderate but remain above historical averages. In the bull case (25% probability), the stock reaches $104-$110 if geopolitical disruptions persist and earnings exceed $10 per share. In the bear case (25% probability), the stock falls to $50-$65 if margins collapse and earnings normalize. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption that crack spreads remain elevated but not at peak levels. The analyst average target of $86.71 aligns with the base case.
PARR appears undervalued on trailing metrics, with a P/E of 4.91 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.18. However, these metrics are distorted by peak earnings; the forward P/E of 5.44 suggests the market expects earnings to decline. Compared to the broader energy sector, PARR's P/E is lower, but this reflects its smaller scale and higher cyclicality. The EV/EBITDA of 4.05 is also low, but again, based on peak EBITDA. On a normalized basis, the stock is likely fairly valued, with the market pricing in a significant earnings decline. The wide analyst target range ($65-$104) underscores the uncertainty.
PARR is a good buy only for investors who believe refining margins will remain elevated due to persistent geopolitical disruptions. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.44 and has a consensus Buy rating with an average target of $86.71, implying 5.9% upside. However, the downside risk is significant: if margins normalize, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $65 (20.6% downside) or even the 52-week low of $33.21 (59.4% downside). The high short ratio of 5.47 indicates that many investors are betting against the sustainability of current earnings. Therefore, it is a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors, not a core holding.
PARR is more suitable for short-term to medium-term trading than long-term holding due to its cyclical nature and lack of dividend. The stock has a beta of 0.754, but its earnings are highly volatile, making it difficult to predict over multi-year periods. Long-term investors would need to endure significant drawdowns, such as the 26.73% max drawdown in the past 180 days. A suggested holding period is 6 to 18 months, allowing time to capture the current margin cycle but not so long that a downturn erodes returns. For long-term exposure to the energy sector, integrated majors with dividends may be more appropriate.