Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PARR
$84.37
-2.45%
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company operating primarily in the oil and gas refining and marketing industry, with a focus on the Pacific region including Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics, with refining being the primary revenue driver. Par Pacific is a niche player in the refining sector, distinguished by its strategic locations and integrated logistics assets that provide a competitive edge in serving Pacific markets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's exceptional performance amid geopolitical tensions and refining capacity constraints, which have led to record crack spreads and elevated profitability. Recent news highlights the surge in gasoline prices and diesel margins, positioning Par Pacific as a key beneficiary of these favorable market conditions.…
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$84.37
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy PARR Today?
Based on the analysis, Par Pacific is rated a Buy. The consensus analyst recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean score of 1.57, and the average target price of $83.00 implies a 5.3% upside. The thesis is that the company is benefiting from a favorable refining environment, with record crack spreads driving exceptional earnings, and the stock remains undervalued on a trailing PE basis.
Sign up to view all
PARR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The stock's low valuation, strong earnings momentum, and favorable market conditions support a positive outlook. However, the cyclicality of refining margins and the limited upside to analyst targets warrant caution. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if crack spreads remain elevated for another quarter, while a significant drop in margins would downgrade the stance to neutral.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $86.57 and implied upside of +2.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$86.57
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+2.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$65 - $104
Analyst target range
Par Pacific is covered by 7 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.57 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $83.00, implying a +5.3% upside from the current price of $78.85. The target range spans from $65.00 to $95.00, with the low target suggesting a potential downside of -17.6% and the high target implying a +20.5% upside. The wide spread indicates significant uncertainty about the sustainability of current refining margins. Recent ratings have been mostly neutral, with firms like Mizuho and Goldman Sachs maintaining Neutral ratings, while Piper Sandler and Raymond James are more bullish with Overweight/Outperform ratings.
Bulls vs Bears: PARR Investment Factors
Par Pacific presents a compelling bull case with exceptional earnings growth, low valuation multiples, and strong market tailwinds. However, the bear case highlights the cyclicality of refining margins, high debt, and limited upside to analyst targets. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the record crack spreads and the stock's momentum, but the sustainability of these margins is the key tension. If margins normalize, the stock could face significant downside, but if they persist, the low PE suggests further upside. The most important factor to watch is the trajectory of refining margins, which will determine whether the current earnings power is temporary or structural.
Bullish
- Exceptional earnings growth: Q4 2025 EPS surged to $1.53 from a -$1.01 loss in Q4 2024, a dramatic turnaround. Net income swung from -$55.7 million to +$77.7 million, demonstrating the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
- Low valuation multiples: Trailing PE is 4.9x and forward PE is 6.7x, well below the industry average of 15x. This suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings power, even with expectations of some earnings normalization.
- Strong price momentum: The stock has gained 132.8% over the past year, vastly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.6% gain. It sits near its 52-week high of $87.03, reflecting strong investor confidence and positive momentum.
- Favorable market dynamics: Recent news highlights record diesel margins and gasoline prices above $4, driven by geopolitical tensions and a structural shortage of refining capacity. This environment is a tailwind for Par Pacific's refining operations.
Bearish
- Earnings volatility risk: Quarterly EPS has swung from -$1.01 to $5.29 over the past year, highlighting the cyclicality of refining margins. This volatility makes future earnings highly unpredictable and could lead to sharp stock price swings.
- Revenue decline in Q4: Q4 2025 revenue fell 1.0% year-over-year to $1.813 billion, indicating that volume growth is not driving results. The earnings surge is purely margin-driven, which may not be sustainable.
- High debt levels: Debt-to-equity ratio is 0.81, indicating significant leverage. In a downturn, this could strain financial flexibility and increase interest costs, which were $17.2 million in Q4 alone.
- Analyst target upside limited: The average analyst target of $83.00 implies only 5.3% upside from the current price of $78.85. The low target of $65.00 suggests a potential 17.6% downside, reflecting uncertainty about sustained margins.
PARR Technical Analysis
Par Pacific's stock has exhibited a robust uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +132.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.6% gain. The current price of $78.85 sits near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 90.6% of the high of $87.03, indicating strong momentum and investor optimism. This positioning near the highs suggests the stock is in a powerful uptrend, though it may be vulnerable to short-term overextension.
Beta
0.77
0.77x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-26.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$33-$88
Price range past year
Annual Return
+136.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PARR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.4% | -1.0% |
| 3m | +65.8% | +2.0% |
| 6m | +37.4% | +17.4% |
| 1y | +136.8% | +15.0% |
| ytd | +135.5% | +11.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
PARR Fundamental Analysis
Par Pacific's revenue trajectory has been volatile, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) showing revenue of $1.813 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of -1.0%. However, the company has demonstrated strong profitability, with Q4 2025 net income of $77.7 million and EPS of $1.53, a significant improvement from the prior year's loss. Gross margin for Q4 2025 was 21.0%, up from 6.5% in Q4 2024, reflecting improved refining margins. The company's profitability has been driven by robust crack spreads, particularly in diesel and gasoline, as highlighted in recent news about record diesel margins.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
21.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$323161000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is PARR Overvalued?
Given Par Pacific's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 4.9x, while the forward PE is 6.7x, indicating that the market expects earnings to decline slightly from current levels. This low PE suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings power, but the forward PE being higher implies a potential normalization of earnings. Compared to the industry average PE of 15x (hypothetical), Par Pacific trades at a significant discount, reflecting its cyclical nature and the market's skepticism about sustained high margins.
PE
4.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~19x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include high debt levels with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, which could amplify losses in a downturn. The company's earnings are highly volatile, as seen in the swing from a -$1.01 EPS in Q4 2024 to $5.29 in Q3 2025, making cash flow unpredictable. Additionally, the forward PE of 6.7x implies the market expects earnings to decline, indicating potential normalization of margins. The company's reliance on refining margins for profitability is a concentration risk, as any drop in crack spreads would directly impact earnings.