Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PARR
$79.03
+9.08%
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company operating primarily in the oil and gas refining and marketing industry, with segments in refining, retail, and logistics. It is a niche player focused on the Pacific region, including Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies, with a refining capacity that serves these distinct markets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's exceptional performance amid a geopolitical-driven surge in refining margins, as recent news highlights record crack spreads and gasoline price spikes following the Iran conflict, which has created a windfall profit environment for U.S. refiners. This has driven the stock's remarkable 162% one-year gain, but also raises questions about sustainability and the cyclicality of refining economics.…
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$79.03
Investment Opinion: Should I buy PARR Today?
Based on the analysis, I rate Par Pacific as a 'Buy' with a thesis that the current valuation does not fully reflect the earnings power from elevated refining margins, and the stock offers a favorable risk-reward despite cyclical risks. The consensus rating is 'Buy' with an average target price of $83.00, implying a 5.0% upside, which is modest but positive. The trailing PE of 4.83x and forward PE of 6.69x are low, and the EV/EBITDA of 4.05x is attractive. Revenue growth is slightly negative (-1.0% YoY), but the gross margin of 18.1% and operating margin of 7.2% are solid, and free cash flow is positive at $323M TTM. The stock has strong momentum, with a 162% one-year gain, and the beta of 0.79 provides some downside protection.
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PARR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bullish due to the compelling valuation and strong earnings momentum, but with medium confidence given the cyclical risks. The key factor is the sustainability of refining margins; if they hold, the stock is likely undervalued. However, the flat revenue growth and high debt levels temper enthusiasm. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company demonstrates margin resilience through a downturn or if revenue growth turns positive. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if crack spreads show signs of sustained decline or if the stock fails to hold above its 50-day moving average.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $83.00 and implied upside of +5.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$83.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+5.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$65 - $95
Analyst target range
Seven analysts cover Par Pacific, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 1.57 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $83.00, implying a modest 5.0% upside from the current price of $79.03. The target range spans from $65.00 to $95.00, with the low target suggesting a potential 17.8% downside, while the high target implies a 20.2% upside, indicating a wide dispersion in expectations. Recent ratings have been stable, with no changes in the past few months, and the mix includes 2 Overweight, 4 Neutral, and 1 Outperform, reflecting a cautiously optimistic stance.
Bulls vs Bears: PARR Investment Factors
Par Pacific presents a classic cyclical investment dilemma: exceptional current earnings power versus the risk of mean reversion. The bull case is anchored by a trailing PE of 4.83x, a 162% one-year price surge, and a 'Buy' consensus with a $83 average target. However, the bear case is equally compelling, with a forward PE higher than trailing, revenue declining 1% YoY, and a high debt-to-equity of 0.81. The single most important tension is the sustainability of refining margins: if crack spreads remain elevated due to geopolitical supply disruptions, the stock is undervalued; if they normalize, the stock could face a significant de-rating. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the low valuation and strong momentum, but the cyclical risk is substantial.
Bullish
- Exceptional earnings surge: Q4 2025 EPS of $1.53 versus a loss of $1.01 in Q4 2024, a dramatic turnaround driven by record refining margins. Net income swung from -$55.7M to +$77.7M year-over-year, showcasing the earnings power in the current environment.
- Undemanding valuation metrics: Trailing PE of 4.83x and forward PE of 6.69x are significantly below the market average, reflecting the market's skepticism about sustainability but also providing a margin of safety if margins persist. EV/EBITDA of 4.05x and PS of 0.24x are also low.
- Strong price momentum: The stock has gained 162.3% over the past year, vastly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.5%. The 6-month change of +84.9% and 3-month change of +34.3% indicate sustained upward momentum, supported by a beta of 0.79, which is lower than the market.
- Positive analyst sentiment: Consensus rating is 'Buy' with a mean score of 1.57 (between Strong Buy and Buy). The average target price of $83.00 implies a 5.0% upside, and the high target of $95.00 suggests a 20.2% potential gain, indicating analysts see further upside.
Bearish
- Cyclical peak earnings risk: The forward PE of 6.69x is higher than the trailing PE of 4.83x, implying the market expects earnings to decline from current levels. This is typical of cyclical peaks, and the negative PEG ratio of -0.0036 confirms expected earnings contraction.
- Revenue decline in latest quarter: Q4 2025 revenue of $1.813B declined 1.0% year-over-year, and the quarterly revenue trend shows volatility (Q3: $2.013B, Q2: $1.893B). This suggests that the earnings surge is margin-driven, not volume-driven, making it less sustainable.
- High debt levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 is elevated, and interest expense of $17.2M in Q4 2025 is a significant burden. While the current ratio of 1.60 is adequate, the debt load could amplify downside if margins compress.
- Limited analyst upside: The average target price of $83.00 is only 5.0% above the current price of $79.03, and the low target of $65.00 implies a 17.8% downside. This suggests that much of the good news is already priced in, and the risk-reward is skewed to the downside.
PARR Technical Analysis
Par Pacific's stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +162.3%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.5% over the same period. The current price of $79.03 sits near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 90% of the range (calculated as (79.03-27.84)/(87.03-27.84)), indicating strong momentum and investor optimism, though it also suggests the stock may be overextended in the short term. The 6-month price change of +84.9% underscores the sustained nature of this rally, which has been driven by favorable refining fundamentals.
Beta
0.79
0.79x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-26.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$31-$87
Price range past year
Annual Return
+162.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PARR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.5% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +34.3% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +84.9% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +162.3% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +120.6% | +12.3% |
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PARR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) was $1.813 billion, a slight decline of 1.0% year-over-year, but the company's earnings power has been exceptional, with EPS of $1.53 in Q4 2025 versus a loss of $1.01 in Q4 2024. The quarterly revenue trend shows volatility, with Q3 2025 revenue of $2.013 billion and Q2 2025 revenue of $1.893 billion, reflecting the cyclical nature of refining margins. The refining segment drives the majority of revenue, as evidenced by fuel revenue of $1.739 billion in the latest quarter, and the recent surge in crack spreads has boosted profitability significantly.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
21.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$323161000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PARR Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 4.83x, while the forward PE is 6.69x, indicating that the market expects earnings to decline from current levels, which is typical for a cyclical peak. The stock trades at a significant discount to the broader market, with a PS ratio of 0.24x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.05x, reflecting the market's skepticism about the sustainability of peak refining margins. The PEG ratio is negative due to expected earnings declines, further highlighting the cyclical risk.
PE
4.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~19x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 indicates a leveraged balance sheet, and interest expense of $17.2M in Q4 2025 consumes a notable portion of operating income. While the current ratio of 1.60 provides some liquidity cushion, the company's earnings are highly volatile, as evidenced by the swing from a net loss of $55.7M in Q4 2024 to a profit of $77.7M in Q4 2025. Revenue concentration in refining (fuel revenue of $1.739B in Q4) exposes the company to margin fluctuations, and the negative PEG ratio suggests earnings are expected to decline, which could pressure cash flows and debt servicing capabilities.