Planet Fitness
PLNT
$51.21
-9.51%
Planet Fitness, Inc. is a franchisor and operator of fitness centers in the United States, operating through Franchise, Corporate-owned stores, and Equipment segments. As the largest fitness club franchise by number of locations, it distinguishes itself with a low-price, high-value model targeting casual fitness users. The current investor narrative centers on the stock's dramatic decline amid concerns over membership growth sustainability and margin pressures, though recent quarterly results showed strong revenue growth of 21.9% year-over-year, reigniting debate on whether the sell-off is overdone.…
PLNT
Planet Fitness
$51.21
PLNT 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Planet Fitness's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $68.68 and implied upside of +34.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$68.68
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+34.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$47 - $133
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 18 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of Buy (mean rating 1.89 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $66.53, implying approximately 24.4% upside from the current price of $53.48. The distribution shows 10 Buy/Overweight ratings, 4 Hold/Neutral, and 1 Sell (based on the institutional ratings data). The high target is $133.00, suggesting a potential 148.6% upside if the company achieves aggressive growth and multiple expansion, while the low target is $45.00, implying a 15.9% downside if margins compress or growth disappoints. The wide spread between high and low ($45 to $133) indicates high uncertainty about the company's future. Recent rating actions show mixed signals: B of A Securities downgraded from Buy to Neutral on May 8, 2026, while TD Cowen downgraded from Buy to Hold on the same date, reflecting caution after the stock's sharp decline. However, other firms like JP Morgan, UBS, and Guggenheim maintained positive ratings, suggesting that while near-term headwinds are acknowledged, the long-term thesis remains intact for many analysts.
Bulls vs Bears: PLNT Investment Factors
Planet Fitness presents a classic value trap debate: strong revenue growth (21.9% YoY), improving operating margins (29.4%), and a forward P/E of 14.9x suggest deep value, but the 52.4% stock decline, trailing P/E of 41.4x, and negative equity highlight significant risks. The bull case hinges on the market's expectation of a dramatic earnings recovery (EPS from $1.29 to $6.61), which if realized, makes the stock undervalued. The bear case warns that the recovery may not materialize, leaving the stock overvalued on trailing earnings. The single most important tension is whether the forward earnings estimates are achievable; if they are, the stock is a bargain; if not, further downside is likely.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue grew 21.9% YoY to $337.2M, accelerating from 10.5% in Q4 2025, driven by corporate stores and equipment segments, indicating robust demand.
- Forward P/E at Discount to Peers: Forward P/E of 14.9x is below the industry average, implying the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery; if EPS reaches $6.61, the stock is undervalued.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with 24% Upside: 18 analysts rate PLNT a Buy with an average target of $66.53, representing 24.4% upside from $53.48, supported by 10 Buy/Overweight ratings.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: TTM free cash flow of $267.4M, up from $109.4M in Q1 2025, provides ample liquidity for debt service and growth investments, reducing financial risk.
Bearish
- Massive 52% One-Year Price Decline: PLNT has lost 52.4% over the past year, trading at 46.8% of its 52-week range, reflecting deep market pessimism and potential structural concerns.
- Trailing P/E of 41.4x Signals Overvaluation: At 41.4x trailing earnings, the stock trades at a significant premium to the leisure sector, leaving little room for error if earnings disappoint.
- Negative Shareholders' Equity and High Debt: Debt-to-equity of -6.0x due to negative equity, a red flag for financial stability, though offset by strong cash flow; any downturn could strain balance sheet.
- Recent Analyst Downgrades Signal Caution: BofA and TD Cowen downgraded PLNT in May 2026, reflecting concerns about membership growth sustainability and margin pressures after the sharp decline.
PLNT Technical Analysis
The stock is in a deep downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -52.4% and currently trading at 46.8% of its 52-week range (current price $53.48 vs. 52-week low $37.03 and high $114.26). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, but also raises the possibility of a value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize. The 52-week low of $37.03 was set in early May 2026, and the stock has since recovered about 44% from that level, indicating a potential bottoming process. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month price change of -0.7%, a 3-month change of -23.2%, and a 6-month change of -43.4%, indicating that the pace of decline has slowed recently. The 1-month performance is nearly flat, contrasting sharply with the 1-year downtrend, which could signal a deceleration in selling pressure or the beginning of a consolidation phase. However, the stock remains well below its 200-day moving average, and the relative strength versus the S&P 500 is deeply negative across all timeframes (1-year relative strength -68.9%), confirming persistent underperformance. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $37.03; a break below that level would likely trigger further downside toward $30. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $114.26, but nearer-term resistance is around $55-$60, where the stock stalled in late July 2026. Beta is 1.04, indicating volatility roughly in line with the market, so the stock's moves are not amplified by leverage but are still subject to broad market swings.
Beta
1.02
1.02x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-61.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$37-$114
Price range past year
Annual Return
-51.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PLNT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.1% | +2.8% |
| 3m | +11.6% | +4.2% |
| 6m | -44.1% | +11.3% |
| 1y | -51.7% | +21.5% |
| ytd | -53.3% | +12.7% |
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PLNT Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing steadily, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $337.2 million, up 21.9% year-over-year from $276.7 million in Q1 2025. This growth rate accelerated from the prior quarter's 10.5% YoY growth (Q4 2025: $376.3 million vs. $340.5 million), driven by strong performance in the Corporate-owned stores segment and equipment sales. The Franchise segment contributed $102.2 million in revenue, while Equipment revenue was $62.1 million, indicating diversified growth streams. The company is profitable, with net income of $51.6 million in Q1 2026, up from $41.9 million in Q1 2025, representing a 23.2% increase. Gross margin was 38.9% in Q1 2026, down from 54.4% in Q1 2025 due to a shift in revenue mix toward lower-margin equipment sales, but operating margin improved to 29.4% from 28.6% in the prior year, reflecting operating leverage. Net margin was 15.3%, up from 15.1% a year ago, indicating stable profitability despite gross margin compression. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 2.11, indicating ample liquidity, but debt-to-equity is negative at -6.0 due to negative shareholders' equity, a common feature for companies with high leverage and share buybacks. Free cash flow was $122.0 million in Q1 2026, up from $109.4 million in Q1 2025, and the company generated $267.4 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, providing strong cash generation to service debt and fund growth. ROE is negative (-45.3%) due to negative equity, but ROA is a healthy 8.4%, indicating efficient asset use.
Quarterly Revenue
$337236000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+21.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
38.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$267378000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PLNT Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 41.4x, while the forward P/E is 14.9x, a massive gap that implies the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. This forward multiple is based on estimated EPS of $6.61, which would represent a dramatic increase from the trailing EPS of $1.29 (calculated from net income over the last four quarters). The forward P/E of 14.9x is more reasonable and suggests the market is pricing in a normalization of earnings. Compared to the industry average (Leisure sector), the trailing P/E of 41.4x is at a significant premium, but the forward P/E of 14.9x is actually at a discount, reflecting the anticipated earnings rebound. The PS ratio of 6.8x is also elevated relative to historical levels. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 28.6x (Q1 2026) to over 100x in 2021-2022. The current trailing P/E of 41.4x is near the middle of its historical range, but the forward P/E of 14.9x is near the low end, suggesting that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued. The PEG ratio of 1.36x indicates the stock is reasonably priced relative to its growth rate.
PE
41.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 27x~111x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The most pressing financial risk is the negative shareholders' equity of -$6.0 debt-to-equity, which, despite strong free cash flow of $267.4M TTM, leaves the company vulnerable to any earnings shock. Gross margin compression from 54.4% to 38.9% YoY due to mix shift toward lower-margin equipment sales could persist, pressuring net margins. Additionally, the company's reliance on continued membership growth to justify the forward P/E of 14.9x means any slowdown in new signings or retention could trigger a revaluation. The trailing P/E of 41.4x leaves no margin of safety if earnings fall short of the $6.61 consensus.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.04 indicates market-like volatility, but its 52.4% annual decline shows extreme idiosyncratic risk. Valuation compression risk is high: if the forward P/E of 14.9x expands to 20x, the stock could rise, but if it contracts to 10x, the stock could fall to $45. Competitive threats from boutique fitness studios and at-home workout trends could erode Planet Fitness's low-cost advantage. The recent downgrades by BofA and TD Cowen highlight growing skepticism about the company's ability to sustain membership growth in a potentially weakening consumer environment.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe recession, membership cancellations could spike, revenue growth could turn negative, and the company might struggle to service its debt. The realistic downside is to the 52-week low of $37.03, representing a 30.8% decline from the current price of $53.48. If earnings fail to recover and the stock re-rates to a trailing P/E of 20x on depressed earnings, the stock could fall below $30, implying a loss of over 40%.