ROST

Ross Dress for Less

$0.00

+0.72%
Jul 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Ross Stores operates as a US-focused off-price apparel and home fashion retailer, offering branded merchandise at 20%-60% discounts through its Ross Dress for Less and dd's Discounts banners across over 2,100 stores. As a dominant player in the off-price retail segment, the company competes with TJX Companies and Burlington Stores by leveraging opportunistic buying and efficient inventory management. The current investor narrative centers on Ross's ability to capture market share from budget-conscious consumers amid persistent inflation, as evidenced by strong Q1 results and raised full-year guidance. Recent news highlights the stock's positive momentum following earnings beats, though some analysts caution about elevated expectations.

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ROST 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $213.43
Average Target $213.43
High Target $245.44449999999998
Low Target $181.4155

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ross Dress for Less's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

5 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Ross Stores is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus Buy rating (4 Buy, 1 Hold). The average price target is $245, implying 14.8% upside from the current price of $213.43. The high target of $260 assumes continued market share gains and margin expansion, while the low target of $225 reflects potential headwinds from consumer spending shifts. Recent ratings from Barclays, Guggenheim, and Goldman Sachs reaffirm Overweight/Buy ratings, signaling strong institutional conviction. The narrow target range ($225–$260) suggests analysts have relatively high confidence in the stock's near-term trajectory.

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ROST Technical Analysis

Ross Stores is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 62.3% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $213.43 sits at 70.5% of its 52-week range ($126.32–$242.81), indicating the stock is closer to its highs but not overextended. This positioning suggests strong momentum but also implies that a pullback could occur if the broader market weakens. The 1-year price change of 62.3% reflects robust demand for off-price retail stocks amid a challenging consumer environment.

Beta

0.88

0.88x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-13.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$126-$243

Price range past year

Annual Return

+62.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodROST ReturnS&P 500
1m-4.6%+1.0%
3m-3.0%+13.0%
6m+16.8%+7.7%
1y+62.3%+19.1%
ytd+16.8%+9.2%

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ROST Fundamental Analysis

Ross Stores reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $6.635 billion, up 12.2% year-over-year, accelerating from the prior quarter's 10.6% growth. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $22.75 billion, driven by strength across all segments, with Home Accents and Men's each contributing $1.4 billion. The company's net income for Q4 was $645.9 million, with a net margin of 9.7%, stable compared to the prior year. Gross margin improved to 28.0% from 26.5% a year ago, reflecting better inventory management and lower markdowns. Operating margin of 12.3% is healthy for the retail sector, indicating efficient cost control. Ross generated $1.12 billion in operating cash flow and $920.8 million in free cash flow during Q4, with a free cash flow yield of 3.7% based on the current market cap. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $4.66 billion in cash and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.84, providing ample liquidity for growth investments and shareholder returns.

Quarterly Revenue

$6.6B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.12%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.28%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Accessories, Lingerie, Fine Jewelry, And Cosmetics
Childrens
Home Accents and Bed and Bath
Ladies
Mens
Shoes

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Valuation Analysis: Is ROST Overvalued?

Given Ross Stores' positive net income, the trailing P/E ratio of 28.3x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 25.0x implies the market expects earnings growth of about 13% over the next year. Compared to the apparel retail industry average P/E of 22x, Ross trades at a 29% premium, justified by its superior ROE of 34.7% and consistent margin expansion. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 18x to 28x over the past five years, with the current level near the high end, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations. The PEG ratio of 6.0x indicates that the stock is expensive relative to its near-term earnings growth rate.

PE

28.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 18x~26x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple