RUN

Sunrun

$13.46

+5.98%
May 5, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Sunrun Inc. is a leading residential solar energy company in the United States, engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. The company operates as a market leader in the residential solar-as-a-service model, distinct for its long-term customer agreements and vertically integrated platform that includes financing, installation, and ongoing system management. The current investor narrative is dominated by a volatile recovery story following a significant price collapse in late February 2026, with debates centering on the company's path to sustainable profitability, its ability to manage high debt levels, and its positioning within a challenging interest rate and competitive environment for the solar industry.

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RUN 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $13.46
Average Target $13.46
High Target $15.479
Low Target $11.441

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Sunrun's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $17.50 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$17.50

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$11 - $18

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a stock with less institutional scrutiny which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment is mixed and appears to be shifting, as recent institutional ratings show a pattern of downgrades from firms like Jefferies (from Buy to Hold) and Freedom Capital Markets (from Buy to Hold) following the Q4 2025 earnings report in late February. The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $4.24 billion, with a wide range from $3.31 billion to $5.28 billion, highlighting substantial uncertainty about the company's near-term growth trajectory. The lack of a published consensus price target or explicit Buy/Hold/Sell distribution in the provided data further underscores the challenging and uncertain investment case, where analysts are likely recalibrating models after the stock's precipitous fall and the company's ongoing balance sheet and cash flow challenges.

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Bulls vs Bears: RUN Investment Factors

The evidence currently tilts decisively bearish, with severe financial risks outweighing potential valuation and growth opportunities. The bull case hinges on the company's market leadership, strong Q4 revenue growth, and historically low sales multiple, suggesting a deep-value turnaround play. However, the bear case is anchored in existential threats: unsustainable cash burn, a crushing debt load, and erratic profitability that call the business model's viability into question. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether Sunrun's recurring revenue and asset base can generate sufficient cash flow to service its debt before external financing becomes prohibitively expensive or unavailable. The resolution of this cash flow vs. debt servicing challenge will ultimately determine if the stock is a value trap or a recovery story.

Bullish

  • Strong Q4 Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 123.5% year-over-year to $1.16 billion, demonstrating significant top-line momentum. This growth, driven by both product sales ($692.3M) and recurring service revenue ($466.5M), suggests a recovering demand environment and effective execution.
  • Attractive Valuation on Sales Basis: The stock trades at a trailing Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.45, near the lower end of its historical range and a steep de-rating from a PS of 3.69 in Q4 2025. This low multiple relative to its own history could offer a value entry point if the company stabilizes.
  • Positive Net Income in Latest Quarter: Q4 2025 delivered net income of $103.6 million and a net margin of 8.94%, a stark improvement from prior quarters. This indicates the potential for profitability, though it must be assessed against a backdrop of generally negative earnings.
  • Recurring Revenue Stream: Service and Customer Agreement revenue contributed $901.7 million in Q4 2025, representing a significant and sticky recurring revenue base from long-term contracts. This provides visibility and cash flow stability, which is crucial for the capital-intensive model.

Bearish

  • Severe Cash Burn & High Debt: The company has a negative trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$1.10 billion and a dangerously high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.75. With Q4 2025 interest expense of $256.4 million, the business model is reliant on external financing, creating significant solvency risk.
  • Chronic Unprofitability & Volatile Earnings: Despite a positive Q4, the trailing operating margin is -4.27% and forward EPS estimates are deeply negative at -$0.80. The extreme volatility in quarterly net income, from -$2.8B in Q4 2024 to +$103.6M in Q4 2025, underscores an unsustainable and unpredictable earnings profile.
  • Extreme Price Volatility & Downtrend: The stock has a beta of 2.37 and is down 31.26% over the last three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by over 35%. Trading at $13.06, it sits near 45% of its 52-week range ($5.38-$22.44), reflecting severe technical damage and high investor skepticism.
  • Analyst Downgrades & High Uncertainty: Recent analyst downgrades from firms like Jefferies and Freedom Capital Markets, coupled with only 5 covering analysts and a wide revenue estimate range ($3.31B to $5.28B), indicate a lack of conviction and high uncertainty about the company's near-term trajectory.

RUN Technical Analysis

The prevailing price trend is one of severe downtrend and subsequent consolidation, with the stock down 31.26% over the last three months and 37.09% over the last six months, despite a positive 81.64% gain over the past year. The current price of $13.06 sits at approximately 45% of its 52-week range ($5.38 to $22.44), indicating the stock is trading closer to its recent lows than its highs, which may suggest a value opportunity but also reflects significant fundamental pressure and high risk. Recent momentum shows continued weakness, with the stock declining 7.70% over the past month, starkly underperforming the S&P 500's 9.98% gain, as evidenced by a -17.68 relative strength reading. This short-term negative momentum diverges from the longer-term positive 1-year trend, signaling a potential breakdown or a re-test of lower support levels following the dramatic drop from above $20 to near $11 in late February and March. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $5.38, while immediate resistance lies at the recent breakdown level around $20, which was the trading range prior to the late-February plunge. A beta of 2.37 indicates the stock is approximately 137% more volatile than the broader market, which necessitates careful risk management and position sizing for investors, especially given the stock's demonstrated propensity for sharp, high-volume declines as seen on February 27th when it fell from $20.42 to $13.25.

Beta

2.25

2.25x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-55.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$5-$22

Price range past year

Annual Return

+92.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodRUN ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.3%+10.4%
3m-35.1%+5.5%
6m-34.1%+8.0%
1y+92.8%+28.4%
ytd-30.8%+6.1%

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RUN Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been volatile but showed a significant year-over-year increase of 123.5% in Q4 2025, reaching $1.16 billion, though this follows several quarters of more modest and inconsistent top-line performance. Segment data reveals the business is split between Product sales ($692.3M in the latest period) and Service/Subscription revenue ($466.5M from Service and $435.2M from Customer Agreements), indicating a dual model of system sales and recurring revenue streams. Profitability remains a critical challenge; while the company reported net income of $103.6 million and a net margin of 8.94% in Q4 2025, this positive result is an outlier against a backdrop of generally negative or minimal profitability, with an operating margin of -4.27% on a trailing basis. Gross margin of 26.80% provides some cushion, but high operating expenses, particularly interest expense of $256.4 million in Q4, consistently pressure the bottom line. The balance sheet and cash flow situation is precarious, characterized by a dangerously high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.75 and negative trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$1.10 billion. The current ratio of 1.66 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, but the core issue is cash generation, with operating cash flow of $96.9 million in Q4 2025 being insufficient to cover the massive capital expenditures and debt servicing, leaving the company reliant on external financing to fund its operations and growth.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.2B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+1.23%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.35%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-1.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Customer Agreements
Incentives
Manufactured Product, Other
Product
Service

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Valuation Analysis: Is RUN Overvalued?

Given the company's inconsistent profitability, with trailing twelve-month net income positive at $0.11 per share but forward EPS estimates deeply negative at -$0.80, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 1.45, while the forward-looking Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) is significantly higher at 6.38, suggesting the market is embedding value for future growth or asset value beyond the current revenue base. Compared to industry averages, data is not available for a direct sector comparison, but the company's valuation is primarily driven by its asset-heavy, project-finance model rather than current earnings. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio of 1.45 is near the lower end of its multi-year range, having traded above 3.69 as recently as Q4 2025 and as high as 35.81 in early 2021. This steep de-rating to near-historical lows suggests the market is pricing in significant fundamental deterioration, competitive threats, and financing risks, potentially offering a value entry point if the company can stabilize its operations, but also reflecting justified skepticism about its business model's sustainability.

PE

9.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -126x~94x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks are severe and center on liquidity and leverage. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 4.75 is dangerously high, and with negative free cash flow of -$1.10 billion (TTM), it cannot internally fund its operations or debt service. Q4 2025 interest expense of $256.4 million consumes a massive portion of operating cash flow ($96.9M in Q4), creating a dependency on capital markets. Revenue, while growing, is split between low-margin product sales and recurring service, with gross margin at 26.80% insufficient to cover high operating and financing costs, leading to a trailing operating margin of -4.27%.

Market & Competitive Risks are amplified by the stock's extreme volatility (beta of 2.37) and valuation compression. The stock has de-rated from a PS ratio above 3.69 to 1.45, reflecting market skepticism about growth sustainability in a high-interest-rate environment that increases financing costs for both the company and its customers. Competitive pressure in the residential solar market threatens pricing and customer acquisition costs. The stock's severe underperformance (-31.26% over 3 months vs. SPY +4.14%) indicates it is out of favor and vulnerable to further sector rotation away from cash-burning growth stories.

Worst-Case Scenario involves a liquidity crisis triggered by an inability to refinance debt or secure new financing, compounded by a slowdown in customer additions. This could force asset sales at distressed prices, equity dilution, or even restructuring. The realistic downside is substantial, referencing the 52-week low of $5.38, which represents a potential loss of approximately -59% from the current price of $13.06. A drawdown to this level would imply a complete loss of market confidence in the company's ability to continue as a going concern, making the risk of permanent capital impairment high.