Stifel
SF
$68.36
+2.21%
Stifel Financial Corp. is a diversified financial-services holding company operating across wealth management, investment banking, institutional brokerage, and bank lending, with roughly two-thirds of its $5.5 billion 2025 revenue derived from wealth management and the remainder from trading and investment banking. Founded in 1890 in St. Louis and transformed through CEO Ronald Kruszewski's long acquisition campaign, the firm has evolved from a regional brokerage into a nationally competitive wealth manager and middle-market investment bank, giving it a distinct hybrid identity that blends the recurring, fee-based stability of a wealth platform with the cyclicality of a capital-markets franchise. The current investor debate centers on whether Stifel's capital-markets recovery is durable: Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.2% year over year to $1.64 billion and net income jumped to $226 million from $155 million a year earlier, yet the stock has fallen sharply as investors worry about the sustainability of investment-banking activity, net interest income pressure from rate cuts, and a broader de-rating of financial-sector multiples. Recent headlines have focused on Stifel's own research actions rather than its operating results, leaving the narrative dominated by the tension between improving fundamentals and deteriorating share-price momentum.…
SF
Stifel
$68.36
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SF Today?
Rating: Hold with a value tilt. The core thesis is that Stifel's Q2 2026 earnings inflection — net income of $226.5 million versus $155.1 million a year earlier — is real but not yet proven durable, and the stock's 22.2% upside to the $81.50 average analyst target compensates for waiting. The 8-analyst consensus is 'buy' with a recommendation mean of 2.375, but the price action (-22.0% YTD) shows the market is not yet convinced.
Supporting evidence is compelling on valuation: 9.3x forward PE, 1.44x price-to-book, and 1.36x price-to-sales are all well below what a wealth manager with 86.6% gross margins and 11.4% ROE would typically command. Revenue grew 11.2% year over year in Q2 2026, net margin expanded to 13.8% from 10.5%, and free cash flow TTM is $417.7 million, funding a 2.84% dividend at a conservative 35.6% payout ratio. The $81.50 average target implies 22.2% upside, and even the $74.00 low target implies 11% upside, suggesting the sell-off has overshot.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis are a stall in investment-banking activity, further net interest income compression from rate cuts, and continued financial-sector multiple de-rating. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if Q3 2026 EPS confirms the $2.00+ quarterly run-rate and the stock holds above the $65.40 52-week low, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or net margin falls back below 10%. On balance, SF is undervalued relative to its own earnings power and analyst targets, but fairly valued relative to a skeptical market that is pricing in a cyclical peak.
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SF 12-Month Price Forecast
Stifel presents a classic value-versus-momentum conflict: fundamentals are improving (Q2 2026 revenue +11.2%, net income +46%) while the stock is down 22.0% YTD and sits 1.9% above its 52-week low. The 9.3x forward PE and 1.44x price-to-book suggest deep value, but the negative PEG ratio of -2.22 and the six-fold quarterly EPS swing from $0.39 to $2.31 warn that the earnings base is unstable. I would upgrade to bullish if Q3 2026 confirms a $2.00+ quarterly EPS run-rate and the stock reclaims its 50-day moving average, or downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 5% or the $65.40 low breaks on volume. With 30% bull, 50% base, and 20% bear probabilities, the risk/reward is modestly favorable but not compelling enough to chase.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Stifel's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $80.88 and implied upside of +18.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$80.88
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$70 - $103
Analyst target range
Bulls vs Bears: SF Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: SF is down 22.0% YTD with -33.5% relative strength versus the S&P 500, and the stock sits just 1.9% above its 52-week low of $65.40. However, the fundamental data cuts the other way — Q2 2026 net income rose 46% year over year, revenue grew 11.2%, and the stock trades at 9.3x forward earnings against an $81.50 average analyst target. The single most important tension is whether the Q2 2026 investment-banking and trading recovery is durable or a one-quarter spike; if it holds, the current 13.3x trailing PE is a deep-value entry, but if capital-markets activity rolls over, forward EPS of $8.68 will be revised sharply lower and the 9.3x forward multiple will prove illusory. Until the next two quarters confirm the earnings trajectory, the stock is a value trap risk with asymmetric upside only for patient investors.
Bullish
- Earnings inflected sharply in Q2 2026: Q2 2026 net income jumped to $226.5 million from $155.1 million a year earlier, lifting net margin to 13.8% from 10.5%. Diluted EPS rose to $2.05 from $1.34, a 53% increase that shows operating leverage as capital-markets activity recovered.
- Revenue growth accelerating sequentially: Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.2% year over year to $1.64 billion, and the trailing four-quarter revenue base now exceeds $6.6 billion versus the $5.5 billion 2025 figure cited in the company profile. Q1 2026 revenue of $1.67 billion was even higher, indicating the investment-banking recovery has legs.
- Deep value multiples versus history: At $66.68, SF trades at 13.3x trailing PE and just 9.3x forward PE, with a price-to-book of 1.44x and price-to-sales of 1.36x. For a wealth manager with 86.6% gross margins and an 11.4% ROE, these multiples imply the market is pricing in a severe earnings downturn that has not appeared in the reported numbers.
- Analyst targets imply large upside: The 8-analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $81.50, 22.2% above the current $66.68, and a high target of $103.00 (54% upside). Even the lowest target of $74.00 sits 11% above the current price, suggesting the sell-off has overshot fundamental value.
Bearish
- Severe relative underperformance: SF has fallen 22.0% year-to-date and 14.2% over the past year while the S&P 500 gained 11.5% and 13.1% respectively, producing relative strength of -33.5% YTD. The stock is down 17.5% over three months and 7.3% over one month, showing momentum is deteriorating, not stabilizing.
- Net interest income under pressure: Interest expense of $188.0 million in Q2 2026 consumed a large share of $476.1 million in interest income, and net interest income of roughly $288 million is vulnerable as rate cuts compress spreads. Total other income/expense was a -$201.0 million drag in Q2, highlighting the sensitivity of the bank-lending segment to the rate cycle.
- Cyclical investment-banking exposure: Roughly one-third of revenue comes from trading and investment banking, which are inherently cyclical and drove the Q1 2025 EPS collapse to $0.39 from $2.09 in Q4 2024. If the capital-markets recovery stalls, earnings could retrace the Q2 2026 gain as quickly as it appeared.
- Earnings quality concerns: The trailing PE of 13.3x is based on a trailing EPS of just $0.08, while the forward PE of 9.3x assumes EPS of $8.68 — a more than 100-fold jump that requires flawless execution. The negative PEG ratio of -2.22 signals the market doubts the sustainability of the earnings base used in forward estimates.
SF Technical Analysis
Beta
1.01
1.01x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$65-$90
Price range past year
Annual Return
-12.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.9% | +0.7% |
| 3m | -17.5% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -11.3% | +6.8% |
| 1y | -12.8% | +11.9% |
| ytd | -20.1% | +12.8% |
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SF Fundamental Analysis
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$417671000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SF Overvalued?
PE
13.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~12x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Stifel's financial risks are moderate but real. The company carries $188.0 million in quarterly interest expense against $476.1 million in interest income, leaving net interest income of roughly $288 million exposed to further rate cuts, and Q2 2026 total other income/expense was a -$201.0 million drag. Earnings volatility is extreme: quarterly diluted EPS ranged from $0.39 in Q1 2025 to $2.31 in Q4 2025, a six-fold swing in twelve months, which makes forward EPS estimates of $8.68 inherently fragile. Revenue concentration in wealth management (roughly two-thirds of the $5.5 billion 2025 base) provides ballast, but the one-third tied to trading and investment banking is the swing factor that determines whether margins hold near the Q2 2026 net margin of 13.8% or revert toward the 3.6% seen in Q1 2025.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression and sector rotation. SF trades at 13.3x trailing and 9.3x forward earnings with a 1.44x price-to-book, multiples that already discount a downturn but could compress further if financial-sector de-rating continues. The stock's beta of 1.01 offers no defensive buffer, and its -33.5% relative strength YTD versus the S&P 500 shows it is being sold regardless of operating results. Recent news flow has been dominated by Stifel's own research actions — such as its upgrade of Staar Surgical — rather than its operating performance, leaving the narrative vulnerable to headline-driven volatility. A short ratio of 3.14 indicates meaningful bearish positioning that could amplify downside if sentiment sours further.
In a worst-case scenario, a stall in capital-markets activity would trigger downward revisions to the $8.68 forward EPS estimate, compressing the forward multiple and driving the stock toward its 52-week low of $65.40, only 1.9% below the current $66.68. A more severe outcome — a return to Q1 2025-style earnings of $0.39 per quarter — would push the stock toward the $50s, implying a 25%+ loss from current levels and exceeding the 25.6% max drawdown already recorded. The realistic downside from $66.68 is -2% to the 52-week low in a mild scenario and -25% to -30% if earnings fully retrace, making position sizing critical.
FAQ
The most severe risk is earnings cyclicality: quarterly diluted EPS swung from $0.39 in Q1 2025 to $2.31 in Q4 2025, and a capital-markets slowdown could retrace the Q2 2026 gain of $2.05 as quickly as it appeared. Second is net interest income compression, with $188.0 million in quarterly interest expense against $476.1 million in interest income leaving roughly $288 million of net interest income exposed to rate cuts. Third is valuation de-rating, as the stock's -33.5% relative strength YTD versus the S&P 500 shows it is being sold regardless of operating results, and a beta of 1.01 offers no defensive offset. Fourth is headline risk from the short ratio of 3.14, which could amplify downside if sentiment deteriorates further.
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: a 30% bull case targeting $81.50-$103.00 if capital-markets activity stays robust and forward EPS of $8.68 is achieved, a 50% base case targeting $70.00-$81.50 if earnings land within 10% of consensus, and a 20% bear case targeting $52.00-$65.40 if investment-banking revenue retraces toward Q1 2025 levels. The base case is most likely, anchored by the $81.50 average analyst target and the assumption that net interest income stabilizes as rate cuts are absorbed. The key assumption behind the base case is that Q2 2026's 11.2% revenue growth and 13.8% net margin are sustainable rather than a one-quarter spike.
SF appears undervalued on most metrics: 13.3x trailing PE, 9.3x forward PE, 1.44x price-to-book, and 1.36x price-to-sales are all at discounts to what a wealth manager with 86.6% gross margins and 11.4% ROE would typically command. The 9.3x forward multiple implies the market expects forward EPS of $8.68 to be revised sharply lower, a skepticism reinforced by the negative PEG ratio of -2.22. Relative to its own history, the stock's 25.6% max drawdown and 22.0% YTD decline suggest the multiple has compressed well below normalized levels. The market is paying a discount, not a premium, and is implicitly pricing in a capital-markets downturn that has not appeared in Q2 2026 results.
From a risk/reward perspective, SF offers 22.2% upside to the $81.50 average analyst target and 54% upside to the $103.00 high target, against only 1.9% downside to the $65.40 52-week low in a mild bear case. The 9.3x forward PE and 1.44x price-to-book are cheap for a firm with 86.6% gross margins and 11.4% ROE, and the 2.84% dividend yield pays investors to wait. However, the stock is down 22.0% YTD with -33.5% relative strength versus the S&P 500, and the six-fold quarterly EPS swing from $0.39 to $2.31 shows earnings are highly cyclical. It is a good buy for value-oriented investors with a 12-18 month horizon who can tolerate a retest of the 52-week low, but not for momentum or short-term traders.
SF is better suited for long-term holding with a minimum 12-18 month horizon. The 2.84% dividend yield and 35.6% payout ratio provide income while the capital-markets recovery plays out, and the 9.3x forward PE offers value that requires time to be recognized. Short-term trading is risky given the beta of 1.01, the 25.6% max drawdown, and the six-fold quarterly EPS volatility that makes earnings dates binary events. A long-term investor should size positions to tolerate a retest of the $65.40 52-week low, while a short-term trader would need to time entry around Q3 2026 earnings and the $65.40 support level.