Stifel
SF
$70.63
+0.50%
Stifel Financial Corp. is a diversified financial-services holding company operating through three primary segments — wealth management, institutional brokerage/trading, and investment banking — with roughly two-thirds of its approximately $5.5 billion in 2025 revenue derived from wealth management and one-third from trading and investment banking. Founded in 1890 in St. Louis and transformed under CEO Ronald Kruszewski through a long string of acquisitions, the firm has evolved from a regional full-service brokerage into a nationally competitive wealth manager and middle-market investment bank, positioning it as a scaled but still sub-bulge-bracket competitor to the likes of Morgan Stanley, Raymond James, and Jefferies. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between Stifel's strong fundamental momentum — Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.2% year over year to $1.64 billion with net income of $226 million — and a stock that has badly lagged the market, with shares down roughly 18% year-to-date versus a 12.9% gain for the S&P 500. Debate centers on whether the sharp de-rating reflects cyclical concerns about capital-markets activity and net interest income headwinds, or whether it has created a genuine value opportunity in a profitable, dividend-paying franchise trading near 1.4x book value.…
SF
Stifel
$70.63
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SF Today?
Rating: Buy. The core thesis is that Stifel is a profitable, dividend-paying financial franchise trading at a deep discount to its earnings power and analyst targets, with an 11.2% revenue growth trajectory that the market is ignoring. The analyst consensus rating is a buy with an average target of $88.50, implying 25.9% upside from the current $70.28.\n\nSupporting evidence includes: 1) Forward PE of 9.65x, well below the market average and the stock's own trailing PE of 13.3x; 2) Revenue growth of 11.2% YoY in Q2 2026, with net income of $226 million; 3) A dividend yield of 2.84% backed by a low 35.6% payout ratio; 4) Price-to-book of 1.44x, which is near historical lows for a firm with an 11.4% ROE. The stock also has a low beta of 0.984, offering defensive characteristics.\n\nKey risks include net interest income compression, cyclical exposure to capital markets, and earnings volatility. The rating would change to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or if net interest margin deteriorates further. It would upgrade to Strong Buy if the stock drops below $65 while fundamentals remain intact. Relative to its history and peers, SF appears undervalued, trading at a discount to its growth and profitability metrics.
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SF 12-Month Price Forecast
Stifel presents a classic value opportunity with strong fundamentals and a depressed stock price, but near-term headwinds and negative momentum warrant caution. The 11.2% revenue growth and 9.65x forward PE suggest the market is overly pessimistic, yet the 12.2% one-month decline indicates unresolved risks. The analyst consensus is bullish, but the stock's relative underperformance may persist until net interest income stabilizes or capital markets activity rebounds. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock stabilizes above $75 and net interest margin shows signs of improvement; I would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 5% or if the stock breaks below $67.81.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Stifel's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $88.50 and implied upside of +25.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$88.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+25.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $103
Analyst target range
Bulls vs Bears: SF Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence, given SF's severe relative underperformance (-30.7% YTD vs. S&P 500) and negative price momentum (-12.2% in the past month). However, the bull case rests on compelling valuation and growth metrics: an 11.2% YoY revenue increase, a 9.65x forward PE, and analyst targets implying 26% upside. The central tension is whether the market is correctly pricing in cyclical headwinds to net interest income and capital markets activity, or whether it has over-punished a fundamentally sound franchise. Resolution likely hinges on whether net interest income stabilizes and capital markets activity rebounds in coming quarters.
Bullish
- Deep Value on Forward Earnings: SF trades at just 9.65x forward EPS of $7.97, a steep discount to the broader market and its own historical multiple. With a trailing PE of 13.3x and price-to-book of only 1.44x, the stock is priced for stagnation despite growing earnings.
- Strong Q2 2026 Momentum: Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.2% year over year to $1.64 billion, with net income of $226 million and diluted EPS of $2.05. This represents a significant acceleration from Q2 2025's $1.47 billion revenue and $155 million net income.
- Analyst Consensus Sees 26% Upside: All 8 covering analysts rate SF a buy with an average target price of $88.50, implying 25.9% upside from the current $70.28. The low target of $81 still offers 15.3% upside, suggesting a favorable risk/reward skew.
- Attractive Dividend and Low Payout: SF offers a 2.84% dividend yield with a conservative payout ratio of 35.6%, leaving ample room for continued dividend growth. This income stream provides a cushion while waiting for a valuation re-rating.
Bearish
- Severe Relative Underperformance: SF has badly lagged the market, down 17.8% year-to-date versus a 12.9% gain for the S&P 500, a relative strength gap of -30.7 percentage points. Over the past year, it has underperformed by 21.0 percentage points, signaling persistent negative sentiment.
- Recent Price Momentum Negative: The stock has fallen 12.2% in the past month alone, compared to a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500, a -12.8 percentage point relative move. This sharp recent decline suggests deteriorating near-term fundamentals or sector rotation out of financials.
- Net Interest Income Pressure: Interest expense remains elevated at $188 million in Q2 2026, while interest income of $476 million has been flat to declining over recent quarters. This compression in net interest margin poses a headwind to profitability.
- Earnings Volatility and Low ROA: Quarterly EPS has been volatile, ranging from $0.39 in Q1 2025 to $2.31 in Q4 2025, and the return on assets is a modest 2.25%. This inconsistency makes it difficult to model predictable earnings growth.
SF Technical Analysis
Beta
1.01
1.01x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$68-$90
Price range past year
Annual Return
-4.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -13.3% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -5.8% | +3.6% |
| 6m | -8.2% | +14.6% |
| 1y | -4.9% | +15.8% |
| ytd | -17.4% | +13.6% |
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SF Fundamental Analysis
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$417671000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SF Overvalued?
PE
13.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~12x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are moderate but notable. Stifel's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36 is manageable, but its net interest income is under pressure, with interest expense at $188 million in Q2 2026 against interest income of $476 million, a spread that has been narrowing. The company's return on assets is a modest 2.25%, and quarterly EPS has been volatile, ranging from $0.39 to $2.31 over the past six quarters, indicating earnings unpredictability. Additionally, revenue concentration in wealth management (two-thirds of revenue) exposes the firm to market-driven asset levels and client activity.\n\nMarket and competitive risks are significant. SF trades at a premium to some peers on a price-to-book basis (1.44x), but its forward PE of 9.65x suggests the market is pricing in cyclical concerns. With a beta of 0.984, the stock is slightly less volatile than the market, but it remains exposed to sector rotation and macro sensitivity. Recent news highlights Stifel's upgrade of Staar Surgical, but broader capital markets weakness could dampen investment banking revenues. Competitive pressures from larger players like Morgan Stanley and Raymond James could limit market share gains.\n\nThe worst-case scenario involves a sharp downturn in capital markets activity and further net interest margin compression, leading to earnings misses and analyst downgrades. In such a scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $67.81, representing a 3.5% decline from the current $70.28. However, if macro conditions deteriorate significantly, the stock could fall below that low, potentially to the analyst low target of $81 (which is above current price, so not a downside target). A more realistic bear case might see the stock drop to the low $60s, a decline of roughly 15% from current levels, if earnings decline and the multiple compresses further.
FAQ
The biggest risk is net interest income compression, with interest expense at $188 million against $476 million income in Q2 2026. Cyclical exposure to capital markets is another major risk, as one-third of revenue comes from trading and investment banking. Earnings volatility is high, with EPS ranging from $0.39 to $2.31 in recent quarters. Finally, competitive pressures from larger firms could limit growth. These risks are ranked from most to least severe.
Our 12-month forecast has a base case (50% probability) of $81-$88.50, a bull case (30%) of $95-$103, and a bear case (20%) of $60-$67.81. The base case assumes earnings grow in line with estimates and the stock recovers to the analyst average target. The bull case requires a capital markets rebound and net interest margin stabilization. The bear case involves a recession and earnings misses. The most likely scenario is the base case, with a key assumption of no severe economic downturn.
SF appears undervalued on multiple metrics. Its forward PE of 9.65x is well below the market average and its trailing PE of 13.3x. Price-to-book of 1.44x is near historical lows for a firm with an 11.4% ROE. The PEG ratio is negative due to recent earnings fluctuations, but the forward PE suggests the market expects earnings growth. Compared to peers like Raymond James, SF trades at a discount, implying the market is pricing in excessive pessimism.
From a risk/reward perspective, SF appears attractive for value investors. The stock trades at 9.65x forward earnings and 1.44x book, with analyst targets implying 25.9% upside to $88.50. The 2.84% dividend yield and low payout ratio provide income support. However, the stock has fallen 12.2% in the past month and 17.8% YTD, reflecting cyclical concerns. It is a good buy for those with a medium-term horizon who can tolerate volatility, but near-term momentum is negative.
SF is more suitable for long-term investment due to its value characteristics, dividend yield, and cyclical nature. Short-term trading is risky given the negative momentum and potential for further downside. The low beta of 0.984 and 2.84% dividend yield support a buy-and-hold strategy. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is suggested to allow for a full market cycle and potential valuation re-rating. Earnings visibility is moderate, with analyst estimates providing some guidance.