TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
TMDX
$82.18
-3.36%
TransMedics Group, Inc. is a commercial-stage medical technology company that has developed the Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring platform designed to replace cold storage for donor organs in transplant procedures. As a pioneer in near-physiologic organ preservation, TransMedics holds a distinct competitive position as the only FDA-approved system for warm perfusion of lungs, hearts, and livers, with ongoing expansion into kidneys and international markets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's rapid revenue growth and strategic investments in its transplant logistics network, which have driven a recent earnings miss and subsequent stock volatility, while long-term bulls point to the potential for market dominance if kidney and European expansions succeed.…
TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$82.18
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TMDX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $97.30 and implied upside of +18.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$97.30
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$65 - $125
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $65.00 to a high of $125.00, with the average at $97.30. The wide spread of $60 suggests significant uncertainty about the company's future prospects. The high target of $125 assumes successful execution of kidney and European expansions, leading to accelerated growth and multiple expansion. The low target of $65 implies potential margin compression or competitive losses that could erode the company's market position. Recent ratings actions have been largely reaffirmations, with no major upgrades or downgrades, indicating stability in analyst sentiment. The consensus leans bullish, but the wide range highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of this investment.
Bulls vs Bears: TMDX Investment Factors
TransMedics presents a classic high-growth, high-risk profile. Bullish evidence centers on robust revenue growth (32% YoY), strong gross margins (59.9%), and profitability (trailing EPS $3.08), while bearish concerns include a forward PE of 38x, high volatility (beta 1.88), and a recent earnings miss that triggered a sharp selloff. The bull case is supported by analyst consensus (Buy) and a PEG of 0.05, but the bear case is reinforced by the stock's 24% underperformance vs. the S&P 500 and a leveraged balance sheet. The key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory and expand into kidneys and Europe, which would justify the premium valuation, or whether execution missteps will compress multiples further. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the accelerating revenue and profitability, but the risk is substantial.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue of $160.8M grew 32.2% YoY, with sequential acceleration from $143.5M in Q1 to $160.8M in Q4, indicating strong demand for the OCS platform.
- High Gross Margins: Gross margin of 59.9% (TTM) demonstrates pricing power and a scalable business model, with Q4 2025 gross margin at 58.1%.
- Strong Profitability: Trailing EPS of $3.08 and a PE of 21.7x, with a PEG of 0.05, suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate.
- Positive Free Cash Flow: TTM free cash flow of $133.6M supports ongoing investments in the logistics network without dilutive financing.
Bearish
- Earnings Miss and Volatility: The stock dropped 22% on May 6, 2026, following an earnings miss, reflecting execution risks in scaling the logistics network.
- High Valuation on Forward Earnings: Forward PE of 38.4x is elevated, implying the market expects a slowdown or that estimates are conservative, creating downside risk if growth decelerates.
- High Beta and Drawdown: Beta of 1.88 and a max drawdown of -58.8% indicate significant volatility, with the stock down 24.2% over the past year vs. S&P 500 +18.6%.
- Elevated Debt-to-Equity: Debt-to-equity of 0.99 suggests a leveraged balance sheet, which could strain cash flows if revenue growth falters.
TMDX Technical Analysis
TransMedics' stock has experienced a significant downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -24.24%, while the S&P 500 gained 18.56% over the same period. The current price of $88.43 sits at 56.7% of the 52-week range (between $60.105 low and $156.0 high), indicating the stock is closer to its lows than its highs, reflecting a bearish long-term trend. This positioning suggests the market has priced in substantial negative sentiment, but also that the stock may be approaching oversold conditions, potentially offering a value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize.
Beta
1.88
1.88x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-58.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$60-$156
Price range past year
Annual Return
-29.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TMDX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.6% | -1.1% |
| 3m | +12.7% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -33.4% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -29.8% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -33.0% | +12.1% |
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TMDX Fundamental Analysis
TransMedics has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $160.764 million, representing a 32.18% year-over-year increase from $121.624 million in Q4 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, with sequential revenue increases from $143.537 million in Q1 2025 to $160.764 million in Q4 2025, indicating strong demand for its Organ Care System. The company's product revenue segment contributed $100.39 million, highlighting the core business's strength, though the growth rate may moderate as the base expands.
Quarterly Revenue
$160764000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+32.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
58.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$133589000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TMDX Overvalued?
Given that TransMedics is profitable with a trailing EPS of $3.08, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 21.72x, while the forward PE is 38.36x, implying the market expects earnings to decline or that the forward EPS estimate is conservative relative to trailing earnings. This gap suggests investors are pricing in a potential slowdown in earnings growth, which is inconsistent with the company's recent revenue acceleration, potentially indicating a mispricing.
PE
21.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 10x~160x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
27.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant: the company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.99, indicating a leveraged balance sheet that could amplify losses if revenue growth stalls. While free cash flow is positive at $133.6M TTM, the forward PE of 38.4x implies high expectations; any earnings miss could trigger a de-rating, as seen in the May 2026 drop of 22%. Additionally, net margin of 31.4% is strong, but operating margin of 17.9% suggests sensitivity to cost overruns in the logistics network, which could compress profitability if investments don't yield expected returns.