TPL

Texas Pacific Land Trust

$430.90

-1.37%
Apr 28, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a unique land and resource management company operating in the energy sector, primarily focused on the Permian Basin. It generates revenue through oil and gas royalties, water sales and royalties, and land management activities across its vast surface acreage. The company is a distinctive, asset-rich player, essentially functioning as a royalty trust with minimal operational overhead, which currently positions it as a high-margin, cash-generative entity heavily tied to Permian Basin activity. The current investor narrative centers on its potential beyond traditional energy, including data center and power generation opportunities on its land, as highlighted by recent news, while its stock performance remains sensitive to broader energy market trends and specific corporate developments like stock splits.

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TPL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $430.9
Average Target $430.9
High Target $495.5349999999999
Low Target $366.265

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Texas Pacific Land Trust's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $560.17 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$560.17

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$345 - $560

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage for TPL appears limited, with data indicating only one analyst providing estimates. The consensus recommendation cannot be determined from a single source, and an average target price is not available in the provided dataset. The wide range of institutional ratings actions over time, from 'Buy' to 'Hold', indicates differing opinions, but the most recent action from Keybanc in February 2026 was an 'Overweight' reiteration. Given the minimal quantitative analyst data (num_analysts: 1), there is insufficient consensus to calculate a meaningful upside or downside implied by targets. This limited coverage is typical for a unique, niche asset-rich company like TPL, which doesn't fit neatly into standard sector comparables. It can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock may be driven more by commodity prices, land value perceptions, and specific corporate developments than by a broad analyst narrative. The wide historical trading range and recent volatility underscore this characteristic.

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TPL Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile uptrend over the past six months but has experienced a significant recent pullback. The 1-year price change is -1.43%, yet the 6-month change is a robust +41.79%, indicating a strong rally that has partially reversed. As of the latest close at $438.91, the price sits at approximately 61% of its 52-week range ($269.23 to $547.20), suggesting it has retreated substantially from its highs but remains well above its lows, reflecting a cooling off from peak momentum. Recent momentum shows sharp divergence: the stock is down -17.24% over the past month but up +26.51% over the past three months. This 1-month decline against the longer-term gains signals a potential consolidation or profit-taking phase after a steep ascent, especially notable given the S&P 500's (+8.7%) positive performance over the same month, resulting in a severe -25.94 relative strength reading. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate resistance at the recent 52-week high of $547.20 and support at the 52-week low of $269.23. A breakout above resistance would signal a resumption of the powerful uptrend, while a breakdown below the recent low near $377.97 (from April 9) could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.773 indicates it has been less volatile than the broader market historically, which is notable given its recent large price swings, suggesting the recent volatility may be an anomaly or event-driven.

Beta

0.77

0.77x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-42.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$269-$547

Price range past year

Annual Return

-4.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTPL ReturnS&P 500
1m-15.8%+12.2%
3m+21.5%+2.3%
6m+39.2%+4.7%
1y-4.3%+29.2%
ytd+44.6%+4.4%

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TPL Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is positive but has shown some quarterly variability. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) was $211.58 million, representing a 13.88% year-over-year increase. However, examining sequential quarters reveals fluctuations: Q3 2025 revenue was $203.09 million, Q2 was $187.54 million, and Q1 was $195.98 million, indicating growth is not linear but the overall annual trajectory is upward. Segment data from a recent period shows Oil and Gas Royalties ($96.72 million) and Water Sales and Royalties ($60.73 million) as the primary drivers, highlighting the dual revenue engine tied to energy and water infrastructure in the Permian Basin. The company is exceptionally profitable with industry-leading margins. Net income for Q4 2025 was $123.35 million, translating to a net margin of 58.30%. The gross margin is reported at 100% in valuation data, reflecting the royalty-based model with minimal direct cost of sales. Operating margin for the quarter was a robust 70.54%. These margin levels are extraordinarily high for the energy sector, underpinned by the asset-light, royalty-collecting business structure. The balance sheet is fortress-like with minimal debt and strong cash generation. The debt-to-equity ratio is a negligible 0.022, indicating virtually no financial leverage risk. The company generated $486.38 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing immense internal funding capacity. Return on equity is a healthy 32.99%, and the current ratio is a very strong 4.40, showcasing ample liquidity. This financial profile allows for significant shareholder returns and strategic investments without reliance on external capital.

Quarterly Revenue

$211579000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.13%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+1.36%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$486379000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Easement and Sundry
Oil And Gas Royalties
Produced Water Royalties
Water Sales And Royalties

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Valuation Analysis: Is TPL Overvalued?

Given the company's substantial net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 41.14x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 6.00x. This massive gap implies the market expects a substantial increase in earnings, likely pricing in the full-year impact of recent energy price environments or new revenue streams. Compared to typical oil & gas exploration and production peers, TPL's trailing PE of 41.14x represents a significant premium, as many traditional E&P companies trade at much lower multiples due to higher capital intensity and volatility. This premium is arguably justified by TPL's unique, high-margin royalty model, asset ownership, and minimal operational risk, which differentiates it fundamentally from operators. Historically, the stock's own PE ratio has fluctuated significantly. The current trailing PE of 41.14x is below the peak levels seen in recent quarters (e.g., 63.21x in Q1 2025) but above the lower end of its historical range (e.g., 25.22x in Q2 2023). This positioning in the mid-to-upper range of its own history suggests the market is pricing in sustained high profitability but is not at the peak of optimism seen previously, potentially allowing room for multiple expansion if growth catalysts materialize.

PE

41.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 24x~63x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

30.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple