Tyson Foods
TSN
$58.48
+0.14%
Tyson Foods, Inc. is a global protein-focused food producer, manufacturing and marketing chicken, beef, pork, and prepared foods under iconic brands like Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, and Sara Lee. As one of the world's largest meat processors, it holds a dominant position in the U.S. market, with chicken and beef segments accounting for roughly 40% and 30% of sales, respectively. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a challenging beef market, characterized by record cattle prices and tight supply, while leveraging strength in chicken and prepared foods to drive growth. Recent quarterly results beat expectations and prompted a raise in full-year guidance, underscoring management's confidence in its diversified portfolio and operational resilience.…
TSN
Tyson Foods
$58.48
Investment Opinion: Should I buy TSN Today?
Rating: Hold. The consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a mean score of 2.62, and the average target price of $68.75 implies a 17.6% upside. The thesis is that Tyson is a defensive play with a low forward PE, but the beef headwinds and thin margins limit near-term upside.
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TSN 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The stock's low forward PE and positive free cash flow suggest value, but the persistent underperformance and beef headwinds temper enthusiasm. The key factor is whether the beef market recovers; if it does, the stock could re-rate higher, but if not, the low multiple may be justified. Upgrades to bullish would require evidence of improving beef margins and consistent earnings beats, while downgrades to bearish would occur if the dividend is cut or revenue growth turns negative.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Tyson Foods's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $68.75 and implied upside of +17.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$68.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+17.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$56 - $78
Analyst target range
Tyson Foods is covered by 12 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean recommendation score of 2.62 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $68.75, implying an upside of approximately 17.6% from the current price of $58.48. The distribution includes 2 strong buys, 4 buys, 5 holds, and 1 sell, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment. Recent ratings actions have been mixed, with Piper Sandler upgrading from Neutral to Overweight in April 2026, while JP Morgan and B of A maintain Neutral stances, indicating no clear directional consensus.
Bulls vs Bears: TSN Investment Factors
Tyson Foods presents a mixed picture: strong operational execution in chicken and prepared foods, a low forward valuation, and solid free cash flow are countered by a challenging beef market, thin margins, and a high trailing PE. The bull case rests on the market's expectation of a significant earnings recovery, as evidenced by the forward PE of 13x versus trailing 39.85x. The bear case highlights the structural headwinds in beef and the stock's persistent underperformance. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the analyst consensus and the potential for earnings normalization, but the key tension is whether the beef market will recover as expected. If beef margins improve, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the low forward PE may be a value trap.
Bullish
- Q2 FY2026 earnings beat and guidance raise: Tyson's Q2 FY2026 (ended March 28, 2026) revenue grew 4.43% YoY to $13.653 billion, beating expectations, and management raised full-year guidance. This was driven by strong chicken and prepared foods performance, which offset a slump in beef, demonstrating portfolio resilience.
- Forward PE of 13.06x suggests undervaluation: With a forward PE of 13.06x versus a trailing PE of 39.85x, the market expects significant earnings recovery. The forward multiple is below historical averages, indicating potential upside if earnings normalize.
- Analyst average target implies 17.6% upside: The average analyst target price is $68.75, representing a 17.6% upside from the current price of $58.48. With 6 out of 12 analysts rating it Buy or Strong Buy, there is a cautiously optimistic view.
- Strong free cash flow generation: TTM free cash flow stands at $1.227 billion, providing ample capacity for debt reduction, dividends, and strategic investments. This supports the company's ability to navigate cyclical downturns.
Bearish
- Beef segment faces structural headwinds: Record cattle prices and tight supply, with the US cattle herd at 1951 levels, are pressuring beef margins. This is a multi-year challenge that could continue to drag on overall profitability.
- Trailing PE of 39.85x is elevated: Despite the forward PE being low, the trailing PE is high due to depressed earnings. If the expected earnings recovery does not materialize, the stock could face de-rating.
- Underperformance relative to S&P 500: TSN has returned only +2.65% over the past year versus the S&P 500's +20.48%, and relative strength is negative across all timeframes (1M: +3.86%, 3M: -12.79%, 6M: -19.49%). This indicates persistent investor skepticism.
- Thin gross margin of 6.54%: Gross margin is razor-thin at 6.54%, leaving little room for error. Any increase in input costs or operational inefficiencies could quickly erode profitability.
TSN Technical Analysis
Tyson Foods is currently in a range-bound consolidation phase, with the stock trading at $58.48 as of August 21, 2026, near the midpoint of its 52-week range of $50.56 to $69.48. The 1-year price change is a modest +2.65%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +20.48% over the same period, indicating relative weakness. The stock is positioned at approximately 84% of its 52-week range, suggesting it is neither near highs nor lows, but the lack of upward momentum reflects investor caution amid sector headwinds.
Beta
0.38
0.38x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$51-$69
Price range past year
Annual Return
+2.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TSN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.5% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -10.1% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -8.4% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +2.7% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +0.8% | +12.3% |
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TSN Fundamental Analysis
Tyson's revenue trajectory shows modest growth, with the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026, ended March 28, 2026) reporting revenue of $13.653 billion, a 4.43% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by strong performance in chicken and prepared foods, which helped offset a slump in beef, as highlighted in recent news. However, the multi-quarter trend reveals volatility: Q1 FY2026 revenue was $14.313 billion, while Q4 FY2025 was $13.86 billion, indicating uneven demand and pricing across segments. The company's ability to grow despite beef challenges demonstrates portfolio diversification, but the reliance on chicken and prepared foods to carry growth may limit upside if those segments face margin pressure.
Quarterly Revenue
$13.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
7.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TSN Overvalued?
Given that Tyson's net income is positive (TTM net income of $260 million in the latest quarter), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 39.85x, while the forward PE is 13.06x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. This wide gap suggests that current earnings are depressed, likely due to cyclical downturns in beef and pork, and the market is pricing in a recovery. The forward PE of 13.06x is below the historical average for Tyson, indicating that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings potential.
PE
39.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 5x~97x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Tyson's financial health is strained by thin margins (gross margin 6.54%, operating margin 2.65%) and a high payout ratio of 147%, indicating dividends exceed earnings. The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49, which is manageable but adds fixed costs. Revenue concentration in beef (30% of sales) exposes it to volatile cattle prices, while the recent Q2 FY2026 net income of $260 million is a recovery from prior quarters but still low relative to revenue. Cash flow is positive, but any prolonged downturn in beef could pressure liquidity.