TSN

Tyson Foods

$57.42

+3.44%
Jun 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Tyson Foods, Inc. is a leading protein-focused food producer operating in the Agricultural Farm Products industry, selling raw chicken, beef, pork, and a portfolio of prepared foods under brands like Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, and Sara Lee. As a dominant market leader in U.S. protein production, the company's competitive identity is defined by its massive scale and vertical integration across its core chicken and beef segments, which together constitute approximately 70% of sales. The current investor narrative is centered on the company's operational resilience and strategic pivot, as recent earnings reports highlight a reliance on strong performance in its chicken and prepared foods segments to offset significant challenges and margin pressures in the volatile beef market, amidst a historic U.S. cattle shortage driving record input costs.

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TSN 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $57.42
Average Target $57.42
High Target $66.033
Low Target $48.807

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Tyson Foods's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $74.65 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$74.65

2 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

2

covering this stock

Price Range

$46 - $75

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (50%)
Sell
1 (50%)

Analyst coverage for Tyson Foods is limited, with only 2 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, indicating this large-cap stock suffers from surprisingly sparse institutional research coverage which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, is mixed but leans cautiously positive, with actions like Mizuho's 'Outperform' and Barclays' 'Overweight' balanced against several 'Neutral' or 'Market Perform' ratings from firms like JP Morgan and BMO Capital. The average target price or specific buy/hold/sell distribution is not provided in the data, so the implied upside cannot be calculated. The target range for estimated EPS is provided, with a high of $6.69 and a low of $6.48, representing a very tight spread of about 3.3%, which suggests strong analyst conviction in the near-term earnings trajectory despite the operational challenges. The pattern of recent rating actions shows some stability, with most firms reiterating existing ratings, though BMO Capital upgraded the stock to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' in January 2026, indicating a specific, recent vote of confidence in the company's turnaround strategy and margin recovery prospects.

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TSN Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of only +2.08%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +24.99% gain, as evidenced by a stark -22.91% 1-year relative strength. As of the latest close of $55.46, the price is trading at approximately 29% of its 52-week range ($50.56 to $69.48), positioning it much closer to its 52-week low, which suggests the stock is in a deep value territory but also signals persistent negative momentum and potential fundamental concerns. Recent momentum has been sharply negative, with a 1-month price decline of -16.17% and a 3-month decline of -4.68%, accelerating the longer-term downtrend and indicating no near-term relief from selling pressure. This severe short-term underperformance, against a market (SPY) that gained +0.74% over the past month, underscores significant stock-specific headwinds and a lack of positive catalysts. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $50.56 and major resistance at the 52-week high of $69.48. A breakdown below $50.56 would signal a new leg down and likely trigger further selling, while a sustained move above resistance seems improbable without a fundamental turnaround. The stock's beta of 0.382 indicates it is historically 62% less volatile than the broader market, which paradoxically highlights that its recent severe declines are driven by idiosyncratic factors rather than systemic risk, making it a low-beta stock experiencing high idiosyncratic volatility.

Beta

0.38

0.38x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$51-$69

Price range past year

Annual Return

+4.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTSN ReturnS&P 500
1m-11.7%-1.6%
3m-6.6%+11.7%
6m-1.4%+6.3%
1y+4.2%+22.2%
ytd-1.1%+7.6%

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TSN Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is stagnant with a slight recent uptick; Q1 FY2026 revenue was $14.31 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 5.06%, but this follows several quarters of essentially flat or declining sales, as seen in the prior Q4 FY2025 revenue of $13.86 billion. The segment data from a recent quarter shows Beef ($5.77B) and Chicken ($4.21B) remain the dominant drivers, but news indicates the beef segment is a significant drag due to high cattle costs, while chicken and prepared foods ($2.67B) are providing offsetting strength. Profitability is severely challenged, with net income of $85 million in Q1 FY2026 translating to a razor-thin net margin of 0.59%, and gross margin compressed to 5.73%, down sharply from the 8.04% gross margin in Q1 of the prior fiscal year. The multi-quarter trend shows extreme margin volatility and compression, moving from a net margin of 2.64% in Q1 FY2025 to just 0.06% in Q2 FY2025, indicating the company's earnings power is highly sensitive to commodity cost swings and currently under severe pressure. The balance sheet is relatively healthy with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49 and a solid current ratio of 1.55, providing liquidity. However, cash flow generation is the bright spot: trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a robust $1.11 billion, and Q1 FY2026 operating cash flow was $942 million against capital expenditures of $252 million, demonstrating the company's ability to generate substantial cash internally despite thin profits, which supports its dividend and provides financial flexibility.

Quarterly Revenue

$14.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.05%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.05%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Beef
Chicken
Pork
Prepared Foods

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Valuation Analysis: Is TSN Overvalued?

Given the company's positive but minimal net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is elevated at 39.79x, reflecting depressed earnings, while the forward PE is a much lower 12.22x, indicating the market expects a significant recovery in profitability over the next twelve months. Compared to sector averages, the stock trades at a discount on a Price-to-Sales basis, with a PS ratio of 0.35, which is typically low for a food processor, suggesting the market is assigning little value to its revenue base due to margin concerns. The EV/EBITDA of 10.26x provides a more normalized view of operating value, but the wide gap between trailing and forward PE underscores high uncertainty and baked-in expectations for an earnings rebound. Historically, the current trailing PE of 39.79x is near the top of its own range over the past several years, which has seen extreme swings from negative values during loss-making quarters to as low as 7x during peak profitability periods. Trading near the high end of its historical PE band is not a sign of optimism but rather a function of currently depressed earnings (the 'E' in P/E), implying the stock price has not fallen as much as earnings have collapsed. This positioning suggests that if the anticipated earnings recovery does not materialize, the stock remains vulnerable to multiple compression or further price declines to align with a more sustainable earnings base.

PE

39.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -54x~791x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

10.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple