TTM Technologies
TTMI
$73.89
-27.67%
TTM Technologies is a vertically integrated manufacturer of printed circuit boards, RF/microwave components and assemblies, microelectronics, and mission systems, serving aerospace and defense, data center, automotive, medical, and industrial markets across three reporting segments (A&D, Commercial, and RF&S Components). The company occupies a differentiated position as one of the few scaled North American suppliers of high-layer-count PCBs and substrates for defense and AI infrastructure, giving it strategic value in supply chains that are being reshored and security-screened. The investor narrative has been dominated by explosive AI data-center demand, which drove record Q1 2026 results and a 15%+ single-day stock surge in late April, followed by the June announcement of the acquisitions of Swiss Technology Group AG and ILFA GmbH to expand European A&D and medical exposure. That bull case has since collided with a violent de-rating: despite 37% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2026, the shares have fallen roughly 58% from their 52-week high as investors question whether AI-driven demand is durable, whether capex-heavy capacity expansion will pressure free cash flow, and whether the stock's earlier triple-digit run had simply outrun fundamentals.…
TTMI
TTM Technologies
$73.89
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy TTMI Today?
Rating: Hold with a bullish bias. The core thesis is that TTMI is a high-growth AI infrastructure play trading at a deep discount to analyst targets ($211 average, 124.8% upside) and forward earnings (11.95x P/E), but near-term risks from negative free cash flow and extreme volatility warrant caution. The unanimous 'Strong Buy' consensus (5 analysts, mean 1.2) supports the bullish case. Supporting evidence: revenue grew 37.4% YoY in Q2 2026 to $1.004B; gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 20.3%; operating margin improved to 10.9% from 8.5%; forward P/E of 11.95x is attractive versus trailing 41.2x; and PEG ratio of 0.19 suggests undervaluation. However, free cash flow is -$15.1M, and beta is 2.14. Risks: (1) AI demand could decelerate, causing revenue growth to slow below 20%; (2) capex may remain elevated, keeping FCF negative; (3) integration of European acquisitions could distract management. The rating would upgrade to Buy if FCF turns positive or if the stock stabilizes above $120, and downgrade to Sell if revenue growth falls below 15% or if the stock breaks below $80. Valuation verdict: fairly valued to undervalued relative to growth prospects, but expensive on trailing metrics.
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TTMI 12-Month Price Forecast
TTMI presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The company's explosive revenue growth and attractive forward valuation are offset by negative free cash flow and extreme stock volatility. Analyst consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, but the market has severely de-rated the stock, suggesting skepticism about the durability of AI demand. I would upgrade to bullish if free cash flow turns positive and revenue growth remains above 25%, or downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 15% or if the stock breaks below $80.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TTM Technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $211.00 and implied upside of +185.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$211.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+185.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$175 - $236
Analyst target range
Bulls vs Bears: TTMI Investment Factors
The bull case rests on explosive revenue growth (+37.4% YoY), a forward P/E of just 11.95x, and unanimous 'Strong Buy' ratings with a $211 average target (124.8% upside). However, the bear case is equally compelling: the stock has collapsed 58% from its high, free cash flow is negative, and beta of 2.14 magnifies volatility. The most critical tension is whether AI data-center demand is durable—if it proves structural, the forward valuation is deeply undervalued; if it's cyclical, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $54.43. Currently, the bear evidence (price action, cash burn) is more immediate, but the bull evidence (growth, analyst targets) is more fundamental. The resolution of this debate hinges on Q3 2026 earnings and management's capex guidance.
Bullish
- Explosive revenue growth: Q2 2026 revenue surged 37.4% YoY to $1.004B, up from $730.6M in Q2 2025, driven by AI data-center demand. This acceleration from 16.6% YoY in Q1 2026 ($846M vs $648.7M) demonstrates rapidly expanding momentum.
- Strong analyst conviction: All 5 analysts rate TTMI a 'Strong Buy' with a mean recommendation of 1.2 and an average target price of $211, implying 124.8% upside from the current $93.88. The low target of $175 still represents 86.4% upside.
- Attractive forward valuation: Forward P/E is only 11.95x based on estimated EPS of $8.71 for the next fiscal year, versus a trailing P/E of 41.2x. The PEG ratio of 0.19 suggests the stock is significantly undervalued relative to expected earnings growth.
- Margin expansion and profitability: Gross margin improved to 21.1% in Q2 2026 from 20.3% a year ago, while operating margin rose to 10.9% from 8.5%. Net income more than doubled to $83.0M from $41.5M, with net margin expanding to 8.3% from 5.7%.
Bearish
- Severe stock de-rating: Despite 37% revenue growth, TTMI has plunged 58% from its 52-week high of $223.83 to $93.88, with a max drawdown of -57.6%. The stock is down 28.9% over three months and 17.6% in the past month, massively underperforming the S&P 500's +2.7% and +1.2% respectively.
- Negative free cash flow: TTM free cash flow is -$15.1M, reflecting heavy capital expenditures for capacity expansion. This raises concerns about the company's ability to fund growth without additional debt or equity dilution, especially with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63.
- High beta and volatility: Beta of 2.14 means TTMI is more than twice as volatile as the market, amplifying downside moves. The stock's 1-month relative strength of -18.9% and 3-month relative strength of -31.6% highlight its vulnerability during market rotations.
- Thin net margin and low EPS: Trailing EPS is only $0.024, resulting in a trailing P/E of 41.2x that appears expensive despite the forward multiple. Net margin of 6.1% remains thin for a hardware manufacturer, leaving little buffer for cost inflation or pricing pressure.
TTMI Technical Analysis
Beta
2.14
2.14x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-66.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$55-$224
Price range past year
Annual Return
+32.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TTMI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -42.0% | -1.2% |
| 3m | -43.8% | +3.4% |
| 6m | -50.4% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +32.7% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +4.6% | +12.0% |
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TTMI Fundamental Analysis
Quarterly Revenue
$1.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+37.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
21.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-15139000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TTMI Overvalued?
PE
41.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 8x~64x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. TTM's free cash flow is negative at -$15.1M TTM, driven by heavy capex for capacity expansion, while debt-to-equity stands at 0.63. The company's net margin is only 6.1%, and trailing EPS of $0.024 leaves little room for error. Revenue is concentrated in the Commercial segment (majority of sales), with growing exposure to AI data-center demand—any slowdown in that vertical could sharply reduce utilization and margins. Additionally, the recent acquisitions of Swiss Technology Group and ILFA add integration risk and may pressure near-term profitability. Market and competitive risks are elevated. TTMI's beta of 2.14 means it is highly sensitive to market swings, and the stock has already shown a -57.6% max drawdown. Valuation is mixed: trailing P/E of 41.2x is high, but forward P/E of 11.95x is low, implying the market expects earnings to surge. If AI capex slows or competitors (e.g., Asian PCB makers) ramp capacity, pricing pressure could compress margins. Regulatory risks include defense budget cycles and potential export controls on advanced substrates. The worst-case scenario involves a sharp decline in AI data-center orders, causing revenue growth to decelerate and margins to contract. With a 52-week low of $54.43, the stock could fall another 42% from current levels. Analyst low target of $175 is above current price, but that may be stale; if estimates are cut, the stock could revisit $54.43. Investors could lose 42% in this adverse scenario.
FAQ
The biggest risk is a slowdown in AI data-center demand, which could cause revenue growth to decelerate sharply and margins to compress. Financial risk is high due to negative free cash flow (-$15.1M) and debt-to-equity of 0.63, which could force a capital raise if conditions worsen. Competitive risk from Asian PCB manufacturers could pressure pricing. Macro risk is amplified by beta of 2.14, making the stock sensitive to market downturns. Finally, integration risk from the European acquisitions could distract management and dilute near-term earnings.
Our 12-month forecast has three scenarios: Bull (30% probability) with a target range of $175-$236, Base (50%) at $120-$175, and Bear (20%) at $54.43-$100. The base case assumes revenue growth moderates to 20-25% and free cash flow approaches breakeven. The most likely scenario is the base case, with a target around $150, implying 60% upside. Key assumptions include sustained AI demand and successful integration of acquisitions. However, given the stock's volatility, actual results could deviate significantly.
TTMI appears undervalued on forward metrics but overvalued on trailing metrics. The trailing P/E of 41.2x is high, but the forward P/E of 11.95x based on estimated EPS of $8.71 is very attractive. The PEG ratio of 0.19 suggests the stock is cheap relative to expected growth. However, the market is pricing in significant skepticism, as evidenced by the 58% decline from highs. If earnings estimates are met, the stock is undervalued; if they are cut, it could be overvalued. The EV/EBITDA of 19.7x is also elevated, indicating that debt is a factor.
TTMI is a high-risk, high-reward buy for aggressive investors. The stock trades at $93.88, a 58% discount to its 52-week high, with a forward P/E of 11.95x and analyst average target of $211 (124.8% upside). Revenue growth is explosive at 37.4% YoY, and margins are expanding. However, negative free cash flow of -$15.1M and a beta of 2.14 mean the downside is equally significant. It is a good buy only if you can tolerate volatility and believe AI demand is durable. Consider scaling in gradually.
TTMI is more suitable for long-term investors with a high risk tolerance, given its growth trajectory and strategic positioning in AI and defense. The stock's high beta and negative free cash flow make it unsuitable for short-term trading unless you are an experienced trader. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and allow the AI infrastructure buildout to materialize. The company pays no dividend, so returns depend entirely on capital appreciation. Monitor quarterly earnings and cash flow trends to adjust your thesis.