Take-Two Interactive
TTWO
$239.62
-0.22%
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc is a leading global developer and publisher of video games, operating through renowned labels such as Rockstar Games, 2K, and Zynga, with a portfolio that includes blockbuster franchises like Grand Theft Auto, NBA 2K, Red Dead Redemption, Borderlands, and Civilization. The company holds a dominant position in the interactive entertainment industry, particularly in the premium console and PC segments, and has expanded significantly into mobile gaming following its acquisition of Zynga in 2022, which now accounts for roughly half of total sales. The current investor narrative centers on the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI, with recent preorder announcements alleviating delay fears and driving a 5% stock surge, while the broader industry faces challenges from rising memory costs and the shift toward all-digital gaming. Take-Two's strategic focus on recurring consumer spending, with over three-fourths of sales from in-game purchases, positions it to capitalize on the industry's transition to live-service models, though near-term profitability remains pressured by heavy investment in game development and marketing.…
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive
$239.62
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy TTWO Today?
Rating: Buy. Take-Two is a compelling buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, given the strong analyst consensus (strong buy) and the average price target of $286.89, which implies 19.7% upside. The thesis is centered on the GTA VI launch, which is expected to drive a massive earnings inflection, as evidenced by the forward PE of 23.26x versus negative trailing EPS. The company's recurring revenue base, with over 75% from in-game spending and mobile contributing half of sales, provides a stable foundation. The stock's technical uptrend, with a 19.98% gain over the past 6 months, supports positive momentum.
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TTWO 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, reflecting the strong potential of GTA VI to drive a major earnings inflection, but acknowledging the execution risks. The stock's valuation is premium, but the forward PE suggests the market expects a significant recovery. The recent preorder announcement has reduced downside risk, and the company's recurring revenue base provides a cushion. However, the wide analyst target range and negative trailing earnings indicate uncertainty. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if GTA VI preorders continue to exceed expectations and the company provides strong fiscal 2027 guidance. It would be downgraded to neutral if there are any signs of delays or if the broader market weakens.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Take-Two Interactive's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $286.89 and implied upside of +19.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$286.89
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+19.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$170 - $368
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $170.00 to a high of $368.00, representing a wide spread of $198, which reflects significant uncertainty about the success of GTA VI and the company's ability to monetize its pipeline. The low target likely prices in potential delays or underperformance of key titles, while the high target assumes a blockbuster launch and strong recurring revenue growth. The wide range suggests that while analysts are optimistic, there is considerable variance in their expectations, and investors should be prepared for volatility. The recent preorder announcement for GTA VI has helped narrow the downside risk, but the stock's beta of 0.98 indicates it moves in line with the market, so broader economic factors will also influence its performance.
Bulls vs Bears: TTWO Investment Factors
Take-Two presents a classic high-risk, high-reward investment centered on the upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto VI. The bull case is compelling: a strong buy consensus, a 19.7% upside to the average analyst target, and a robust recurring revenue base from mobile and in-game spending. However, the bear case is equally valid, with negative trailing earnings, a premium valuation, and a wide analyst target range indicating significant uncertainty. Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence given the confirmed preorder timeline and the potential for a massive earnings inflection, but the single most important tension is whether GTA VI delivers on its blockbuster expectations. If it succeeds, the stock could re-rate significantly; if it disappoints or is delayed, the downside to the $170 low target is substantial. Investors must weigh the potential for outsized gains against the risk of a binary outcome.
Bullish
- GTA VI Preorders Crush Delay Fears: The official start of GTA VI preorders in June 2026 alleviated investor concerns about potential delays, driving a 5% stock surge. This confirms the game's timeline and reinforces bullish sales forecasts, positioning TTWO for a major revenue inflection in fiscal 2027.
- Strong Recurring Revenue Mix: Over three-fourths of sales come from in-game spending, with mobile (Zynga) contributing roughly half of total revenue. In Q4 FY2026, mobile revenue reached $843.9 million, providing a stable, high-margin base that reduces reliance on individual title launches.
- Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy: With 29 analysts covering the stock, the consensus recommendation is 'strong buy' (mean score 1.21 on a 1-5 scale). The average price target of $286.89 implies approximately 19.7% upside from the current price of $239.62, reflecting broad optimism about the GTA VI-driven earnings recovery.
- Forward PE Suggests Earnings Inflection: Despite negative trailing EPS (-$0.008), the forward PE of 23.26x indicates the market expects a dramatic profitability recovery, likely driven by GTA VI's launch. Analysts estimate forward EPS of $9.46, a massive swing from current losses, underscoring the anticipated blockbuster impact.
Bearish
- Negative Trailing EPS and Thin Margins: TTWO's trailing twelve-month EPS is -$0.008, with a net margin of -4.48% and operating margin of -1.63%. The company has posted net losses in each of the last four quarters, including -$59.5 million in Q4 FY2026, reflecting heavy investment in development and marketing.
- Elevated Valuation with No Current Earnings: The PS ratio of 5.50x and EV/Sales of 6.88x are premium to the broader market, yet the company is unprofitable. This valuation relies entirely on future earnings materializing, leaving little room for error if GTA VI underperforms or is delayed.
- Relative Underperformance vs. S&P 500: Over the past year, TTWO gained only 5.16% versus the S&P 500's 20.48%, underperforming by 15.3 percentage points. This relative weakness suggests investors are not yet fully pricing in the GTA VI catalyst, but also indicates a lack of broad market support.
- Wide Analyst Target Range Signals Uncertainty: Analyst targets range from $170 to $368, a spread of $198. The low target implies a 29% downside from the current price, reflecting significant risk if GTA VI faces delays or fails to meet high expectations. This wide dispersion highlights the binary nature of the investment.
TTWO Technical Analysis
Take-Two's stock is in a clear uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +5.16%, though this lags the S&P 500's +20.48% gain, indicating relative underperformance. The current price of $239.62 sits at approximately 90% of its 52-week range (between $187.63 and $265.94), reflecting a strong recovery from the lows but still below the highs. This positioning suggests the stock has regained momentum after a mid-2026 pullback, trading near the upper end of its range, which can indicate bullish sentiment but also potential overextension if the broader market weakens.
Beta
0.98
0.98x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$188-$266
Price range past year
Annual Return
+5.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TTWO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.6% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +5.3% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +20.0% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +5.2% | +18.7% |
| ytd | -4.8% | +12.3% |
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TTWO Fundamental Analysis
Take-Two's revenue trajectory shows steady growth, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ended March 31, 2026) reporting revenue of $1.68 billion, a 6.15% year-over-year increase. This follows sequential growth from $1.50 billion in Q1 FY2026 to $1.77 billion in Q2 FY2026, though Q3 FY2026 saw a slight dip to $1.70 billion. The growth is driven by strong performance in mobile (Zynga) and recurring consumer spending, with mobile revenue of $843.9 million and console revenue of $674.6 million in the latest quarter. The company's diversified portfolio, including the upcoming GTA VI, is expected to accelerate growth in fiscal 2027, but the current pace is moderate, reflecting the cyclical nature of game releases.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
55.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$450100000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TTWO Overvalued?
Given that Take-Two's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.008), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as PE is not meaningful. The current PS ratio is 5.50x, which is elevated compared to the broader market, but the forward PE of 23.26x suggests the market expects a significant earnings recovery, likely driven by GTA VI's launch. The gap between the negative trailing EPS and the positive forward EPS indicates that analysts anticipate a major inflection in profitability, which is typical for a company with a blockbuster title pipeline.
PE
-121.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 34x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Take-Two's financial profile is characterized by persistent losses, with a trailing twelve-month net income of -$0.008 per share and a net margin of -4.48%. The company has reported net losses in each of the last four quarters, including -$59.5 million in Q4 FY2026, driven by heavy investment in game development (R&D expenses of $262.5 million in Q4) and marketing (SGA of $616 million). The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.84 indicates moderate leverage, and interest expenses of $28.2 million in Q4 add to the burden. The company's reliance on a single franchise, GTA, which accounts for about 30% of sales, creates concentration risk, though the diversified portfolio including NBA 2K and mobile helps mitigate this. The negative free cash flow of $450.1 million TTM (though positive in the latest quarter) suggests ongoing cash burn, though the company's strong balance sheet (current ratio of 1.24) provides some cushion.