Under Armour
UAA
$5.34
-9.03%
Under Armour, Inc. is a leading athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories company that designs, markets, and distributes performance products globally, operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Apparel - Manufacturers industry. The company distinguishes itself through its performance-focused brand identity, targeting athletes and active lifestyles, and maintains a significant market presence with approximately 440 company-owned stores and a robust wholesale and digital network. Currently, the investor narrative centers on the company's turnaround efforts under founder Kevin Plank's leadership, as it navigates a challenging retail environment, competitive pressures from giants like Nike and Adidas, and recent financial underperformance, with the stock trading near multi-year lows and analysts closely watching for signs of stabilization and strategic execution.…
UAA
Under Armour
$5.34
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy UAA Today?
Based on the analysis, UAA is rated a Hold. The consensus recommendation is 'Hold' with an average price target of $6.44, implying a modest 5.4% upside. The thesis is that while the stock is deeply undervalued on a price-to-sales basis, the lack of a clear catalyst for revenue growth and profitability keeps it a cautious hold rather than a buy.
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UAA 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The valuation is deeply discounted, but the fundamental performance is weak, with negative revenue growth and profitability. The stock is in a downtrend, and analyst sentiment is cautious. The key factor to watch is whether the company can return to revenue growth and profitability, which would likely lead to a re-rating. If revenue continues to decline, the stock could fall further. Upgrades to a bullish stance would require evidence of a successful turnaround, such as positive revenue growth and improving margins, while a bearish stance would be triggered by accelerating losses and market share losses.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Under Armour's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $6.42 and implied upside of +20.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$6.42
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+20.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$4 - $13
Analyst target range
Under Armour is covered by 18 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Hold' (mean rating of 2.92 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $6.44, implying a modest upside of +5.4% from the current price of $6.11. The distribution includes 5 Buy ratings, 8 Hold ratings, and 5 Sell ratings, reflecting a cautious sentiment. The target range spans from a low of $4.00 to a high of $12.50, with the high target suggesting a potential 104% upside if the company executes a successful turnaround, while the low target implies a 34.5% downside if the deterioration continues. Recent rating actions show a mix of holds and a downgrade from Stifel (Buy to Hold) and Citigroup (Neutral to Sell), indicating waning confidence, though UBS maintained a Buy rating in May 2026.
Bulls vs Bears: UAA Investment Factors
Under Armour presents a classic value trap versus turnaround opportunity. The bull case rests on an extremely low valuation (PS 0.50x vs. industry 1.2x) and the potential for margin recovery, while the bear case is driven by persistent revenue declines, negative profitability, and high debt. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger, as the company has not yet demonstrated a clear path to sustainable growth. The most critical tension is whether the turnaround under Kevin Plank can stabilize revenue and return to profitability, which would validate the low valuation and drive a re-rating. If revenue continues to decline and losses persist, the stock could fall further toward the 52-week low of $4.13.
Bullish
- Deep Valuation Discount: UAA trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.50x, a steep discount to the apparel industry average of 1.2x and near its historical low of 1.5x. This implies the market is pricing in severe pessimism, offering potential upside if the turnaround gains traction.
- Analyst High Target Upside: The analyst high target of $12.50 represents a 104% upside from the current price of $6.11. Even the average target of $6.44 implies a modest 5.4% gain, but the high target reflects a scenario where the turnaround succeeds.
- Strong Brand and Market Position: Under Armour maintains a recognizable performance brand with a global presence, 440 company-owned stores, and a diversified wholesale and digital network. This provides a foundation for recovery as the company refocuses on its core athletic market.
- Potential for Margin Expansion: Gross margin improved to 45.5% in the latest quarter, up from 42.0% in Q4 FY2026, indicating cost controls and product mix shifts are taking effect. If this trend continues, it could drive profitability and earnings recovery.
Bearish
- Persistent Revenue Decline: Revenue fell 0.58% year-over-year in Q4 FY2026 to $1.171 billion, and the trailing twelve-month revenue is declining. This stagnation suggests the company is losing market share to competitors like Nike and Adidas.
- Negative Profitability: UAA reported a net loss of $43.4 million in Q4 FY2026, with a negative EPS of -$0.10. The trailing twelve-month EPS is -$0.20, and the operating margin is -0.7%, indicating ongoing operational inefficiencies.
- High Debt and Cash Burn: The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.37, and free cash flow is negative at -$162 million over the trailing twelve months. This financial strain limits the company's ability to invest in growth or weather prolonged downturns.
- Weak Technical Momentum: The stock is down 19.2% over the past six months and 8.0% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500's +22.3% gain. With a beta of 1.65, the stock is highly volatile and currently in a downtrend.
UAA Technical Analysis
Under Armour's stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -7.98%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +22.3% gain. The current price of $6.11 sits at 75% of its 52-week range (low of $4.13, high of $8.15), indicating the stock is closer to the lower end of its range, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment. The 6-month change of -19.18% further underscores the prolonged decline, while the stock's beta of 1.651 suggests it is 65% more volatile than the market, amplifying both downside and upside moves.
Beta
1.65
1.65x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$4-$8
Price range past year
Annual Return
+4.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | UAA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -21.4% | +2.1% |
| 3m | +4.5% | +3.8% |
| 6m | -24.0% | +13.1% |
| 1y | +4.3% | +21.2% |
| ytd | +0.9% | +13.0% |
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UAA Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been stagnant to slightly declining, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ended March 31, 2026) showing revenue of $1.171 billion, a year-over-year decline of -0.58%. Over the past four quarters, revenue has ranged from $1.117 billion to $1.342 billion, with the latest quarter marking the lowest level, indicating a decelerating trajectory. Segment data reveals that Apparel remains the dominant driver at $1.712 billion, followed by Footwear at $547 million, Accessories at $201 million, and Licensing at $54 million, but overall growth is being dragged by weakness in core categories.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-162163000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is UAA Overvalued?
Given that Under Armour's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.20), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, currently at 0.50x, which is a significant discount to the broader apparel industry average of approximately 1.2x. The forward PE of 26.1x implies the market expects a return to profitability, but the negative PEG ratio of -0.03 suggests that growth expectations are not supporting the multiple. Compared to its own historical PS range of 1.5x to 6.3x over the past five years, the current 0.50x is near the absolute bottom, indicating the market is pricing in severe pessimism or a potential value trap.
PE
-5.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~95x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-67.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, UAA is under pressure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.37 and negative free cash flow of -$162 million over the trailing twelve months. The company's net margin is -10.0%, and it has reported losses in three of the last four quarters, including a net loss of $43.4 million in Q4 FY2026. This financial strain limits its ability to invest in growth initiatives and increases vulnerability to economic downturns. Additionally, the negative PEG ratio of -0.03 suggests that earnings growth is not supporting the forward PE of 26.1x, implying the market expects a significant turnaround that may not materialize.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: high debt-to-equity of 1.37 and negative free cash flow of -$162 million, which could lead to liquidity issues. 2) Competitive risk: intense competition from Nike and Adidas, which have larger marketing budgets and market share. 3) Macro risk: high beta of 1.65 means the stock is sensitive to economic downturns and consumer spending. 4) Company-specific risk: the turnaround may fail, leading to continued revenue declines and losses. The most severe risk is a continued deterioration in fundamentals, which could push the stock down to the 52-week low of $4.13, a 32% downside from the current price.
The 12-month forecast is uncertain. In the base case (50% probability), the stock trades around $6.44, the analyst average target, with flat revenue and marginal profitability. In the bull case (25% probability), the stock could reach $12.50 if the turnaround succeeds, driven by revenue growth and margin expansion. In the bear case (25% probability), the stock could fall to $4.00 if the turnaround fails and losses continue. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock remaining range-bound as the market waits for clearer signs of a recovery.
UAA is undervalued on a price-to-sales basis, trading at 0.50x versus the industry average of 1.2x. This is near its historical low of 1.5x, indicating the market is pricing in severe pessimism. However, the forward PE of 26.1x suggests the market expects a return to profitability, which is not yet evident. The negative PEG ratio of -0.03 indicates that growth expectations are not supporting the multiple. Overall, the stock is cheap on sales but not on earnings, reflecting the market's uncertainty about the company's future.
UAA is not a clear buy at current levels. The stock is deeply undervalued with a PS ratio of 0.50x, but the company is losing money and revenue is declining. The analyst consensus is Hold with an average target of $6.44, implying only 5.4% upside. The biggest risk is that the turnaround fails, leading to further losses and a potential decline to the 52-week low of $4.13. For risk-tolerant investors with a long-term view, it could be a speculative buy if they believe in the turnaround, but for most investors, it is safer to wait for signs of stabilization.
UAA is more suitable for long-term investors with a high risk tolerance, as the turnaround is likely to take several years to play out. The stock is highly volatile (beta 1.65) and currently in a downtrend, making it risky for short-term trading. The company does not pay a dividend, so returns depend on capital appreciation. Given the deep valuation discount and potential for recovery, a long-term horizon of at least 3-5 years is recommended to allow the turnaround to materialize. Short-term investors may find better opportunities elsewhere due to the lack of positive momentum.