Viasat
VSAT
$71.70
-3.46%
Viasat Inc is a global provider of communications technologies and services, specializing in broadband and narrowband connectivity solutions for government, commercial mobility, residential, and enterprise markets. As a key player in the satellite communications and defense technology space, Viasat distinguishes itself through its vertically integrated satellite systems and a growing portfolio of secure communications for military applications. The current investor narrative centers on a transformative inflection point driven by a foundational $219 million Space Force contract that could unlock a $4 billion program, coupled with the completion of its satellite constellation deployment, which is expected to transition the company toward predictable, high-margin defense revenue and a potential stock re-rating.…
VSAT
Viasat
$71.70
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy VSAT Today?
Rating: Buy. Thesis: Viasat is a high-risk, high-reward investment driven by a transformative defense catalyst that could unlock significant revenue growth and margin expansion, supported by strong cash flow and a discounted valuation relative to history. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $94.56, implying 32% upside.
Supporting Evidence: Viasat's Q4 FY2025 net income of $58.8 million (EPS $0.41) marks a sharp turnaround from a $246 million loss a year ago, demonstrating improving profitability. The trailing P/S of 1.33x is at an 11% discount to the industry average of 1.5x and near the low end of its historical range, suggesting value. Free cash flow of $597 million TTM provides a strong cash generation profile, and the 45.4% EBITDA margin indicates operational efficiency. The consensus analyst target of $94.56 offers a 32% upside, with a high target of $140 implying 96% upside if the defense program fully materializes.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are execution on the Space Force contract, flat revenue growth, and high debt. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth fails to accelerate above 5% in the next two quarters, or if the stock approaches the $93 resistance without fundamental progress. It would be upgraded to Strong Buy if the company announces additional contract wins or if gross margins sustainably exceed 30%. Overall, Viasat appears undervalued relative to its growth potential and historical valuation, but the high execution risk warrants a cautious position size.
Sign up to view all
VSAT 12-Month Price Forecast
Viasat's outlook is cautiously bullish, driven by the transformative Space Force contract and improving profitability. The low P/S multiple provides a valuation cushion, but the high forward P/E and flat revenue growth temper enthusiasm. The base case of gradual execution and modest re-rating is most likely, with a 45% probability. The bull case (30%) offers significant upside if the defense program accelerates, while the bear case (25%) highlights execution risk. I would upgrade to more bullish if revenue growth exceeds 5% in the next quarter, and downgrade to neutral if the stock fails to hold above $60 support.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Viasat's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $94.56 and implied upside of +31.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$94.56
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+31.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$49 - $140
Analyst target range
Viasat is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The distribution shows 6 Buy ratings, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell (based on recent actions: Needham and B. Riley maintain Buy, Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy, Barclays is at Equal Weight, and JP Morgan is Overweight). The average target price is $94.56, implying approximately 32% upside from the current price of $71.48. The consensus recommendation is effectively a Buy, reflecting optimism around the Space Force contract and satellite deployment. The target price range spans from a low of $49.00 to a high of $140.00, indicating significant dispersion in analyst views. The high target of $140 assumes successful execution on the $4 billion Space Force program, margin expansion from defense revenue, and multiple expansion. The low target of $49 suggests downside risk if the contract fails to materialize or if competitive pressures erode margins. Recent rating actions show a clear positive shift: Deutsche Bank upgraded from Hold to Buy in February 2026, JP Morgan upgraded from Neutral to Overweight in November 2025, and Barclays upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight in April 2026. This pattern of upgrades supports the bullish narrative. The wide spread between low and high targets ($49 to $140) reflects high uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the defense catalyst, but the overall direction of analyst revisions is constructive.
Bulls vs Bears: VSAT Investment Factors
Viasat presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity centered on a transformative defense catalyst. The bull case is anchored by the Space Force contract win, improving profitability, strong cash flow, and a consensus analyst target implying 32% upside. However, the bear case highlights flat revenue, high execution risk, elevated debt, and a speculative forward P/E of 177x. The single most important tension is whether the Space Force contract will translate into sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. If it does, the stock could re-rate significantly; if it falters, the stock could fall back toward the $49 low target. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the positive analyst revisions and improving financials, but the risk is substantial.
Bullish
- Space Force Contract Catalyst: The $219 million Space Force contract win opens the door to a potential $4 billion program, which could transform Viasat into a high-margin defense contractor. This foundational contract has driven a 354.7% stock surge over the past year and is the primary catalyst for analyst upgrades.
- Strong EBITDA and Cash Flow: Viasat generated $532 million in EBITDA in Q4 FY2025 (45.4% margin) and $597 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. This demonstrates strong cash-generating ability despite thin operating margins, providing financial flexibility to fund growth.
- Analyst Consensus Bullish: With 6 Buy ratings, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell, the consensus is bullish. The average analyst target of $94.56 implies 32% upside from the current price of $71.48, and recent upgrades from Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, and Barclays reinforce positive sentiment.
- Improving Profitability Trajectory: Viasat swung from a net loss of $246 million in Q4 FY2024 to net income of $58.8 million in Q4 FY2025 (EPS of $0.41). This turnaround, driven by cost controls and higher-margin defense revenue, suggests the company is on a path to sustained profitability.
Bearish
- Flat Revenue Growth: Revenue has been stagnant at ~$1.14–$1.17 billion per quarter over the past year, with Q4 FY2025 growth of only 2.1% YoY. The defense contract has not yet translated into revenue acceleration, raising concerns about organic growth.
- High Execution Risk on Defense: The $4 billion Space Force program is contingent on successful execution of the initial $219 million contract. Any delays, cost overruns, or contract modifications could derail the bullish thesis, as evidenced by the stock's 30.79% max drawdown from the 52-week high of $93.03.
- Elevated Debt and Thin Margins: Debt-to-equity of 1.49x is elevated, and operating margin was near zero (-0.05%) in Q4 FY2025. While EBITDA is strong, high interest expense ($78.9 million in Q4) and depreciation ($347 million) weigh on net income, limiting earnings power.
- Speculative Valuation on Forward Earnings: The forward P/E of 177x implies the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery, but TTM net income is still negative (-$34 million). This leaves little room for error; any earnings miss could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
VSAT Technical Analysis
Viasat is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with the stock surging 354.7% over the past year, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 18.4% gain. The current price of $71.48 sits at 73.5% of its 52-week range ($14.00–$93.03), indicating the stock is in the upper half of its range but not yet at overbought extremes near the highs. This positioning suggests strong momentum but with room for further upside if catalysts materialize, though it also implies that much of the good news may already be priced in. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month gain of 10.7% and a 3-month gain of 13.7%, both outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of 0.3% and 4.7%. The 1-month relative strength of 10.4% confirms that Viasat is decisively outperforming the market in the near term. However, the stock experienced a sharp pullback from its 52-week high of $93.03 in late May to a low near $60 in late June, before recovering to current levels—a pattern that suggests high volatility and potential profit-taking after the Space Force contract news. Key technical support lies near the 52-week low of $14.00, though more immediate support is around the $60 area (the June low). Resistance is at the 52-week high of $93.03; a breakout above that level would signal a resumption of the uptrend and could target new highs. With a beta of 1.703, Viasat is 70% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it will amplify market moves—a factor that demands careful position sizing and risk management.
Beta
1.70
1.70x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$93
Price range past year
Annual Return
+395.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | VSAT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +15.2% | +0.8% |
| 3m | +15.7% | +3.5% |
| 6m | +65.7% | +7.2% |
| 1y | +395.5% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +90.5% | +8.4% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
VSAT Fundamental Analysis
Viasat's revenue trajectory is stable but decelerating, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2025, ended March 31, 2026) reporting $1.171 billion, up just 2.1% year-over-year. Over the trailing four quarters, revenue has been relatively flat, ranging from $1.141 billion to $1.171 billion, indicating a mature satellite services business with limited organic growth. The company's two segments—Communication Services and Defense & Advanced Technologies—show contrasting trends: the service segment generated $804 million (69% of total revenue) in the latest quarter, while product revenue was $368 million. The defense segment is the key growth driver, as evidenced by the recent Space Force contract win, but its impact on overall revenue has yet to materialize in reported figures. Profitability has been inconsistent but is improving. In Q4 FY2025, Viasat reported net income of $58.8 million (EPS of $0.41), a sharp turnaround from a net loss of $246 million in the same quarter last year. Gross margin was 25.2%, down from 31.8% a year ago, reflecting higher cost of revenue as the company ramps up satellite operations. Operating margin was near zero (-0.05%), but the company generated positive EBITDA of $532 million, representing a 45.4% EBITDA margin—a strong indicator of cash-generating potential. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but improving liquidity. Debt-to-equity stands at 1.49, which is elevated but manageable given the company's cash flow profile. Free cash flow (TTM) was $597 million, a significant improvement from negative free cash flow in prior years, and the company ended the quarter with $1.75 billion in cash. The current ratio of 2.41 indicates ample short-term liquidity. Return on equity is negative (-0.73%), but this is distorted by prior losses; the recent profitability trend suggests ROE could turn positive in coming quarters. Overall, Viasat is generating sufficient cash to fund its capital expenditures ($298 million in Q4) without relying on external financing, reducing financial risk.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
25.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$597111000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is VSAT Overvalued?
Given that Viasat's trailing net income is negative (TTM net income of -$34 million as of the latest cash flow statement), the P/E ratio is not meaningful. Therefore, we lead with the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, which is 1.33x on a trailing basis. The forward P/E of 177x is based on analyst estimates of future profitability, implying that the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery—a high bar that introduces significant execution risk. Compared to the Communication Equipment industry average P/S of approximately 1.5x (based on available data), Viasat's 1.33x P/S is at a slight 11% discount, suggesting the market is not yet pricing in a premium for its defense growth potential. However, on an EV/Sales basis, Viasat trades at 3.16x, which may be more relevant given its debt load. Historically, Viasat's P/S ratio has ranged from below 1.0x to over 6.0x over the past five years. The current 1.33x is near the lower end of its historical band, which could indicate a value opportunity if the company's growth and margin expansion materialize. However, the low multiple also reflects the market's skepticism about the sustainability of its turnaround, given the flat revenue trend and thin operating margins. The PEG ratio of 1.94x suggests that the stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, but this metric relies on earnings estimates that may be optimistic.
PE
-183.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 28x~52x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Viasat's balance sheet carries elevated debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.49, and interest expense of $78.9 million in Q4 FY2025 consumes a significant portion of operating income. While free cash flow of $597 million TTM provides a cushion, the company's operating margin was near zero (-0.05%) in the latest quarter, indicating that profitability is fragile and highly dependent on cost control and revenue mix. Revenue growth has been stagnant at ~2% YoY, with no acceleration from the defense contract yet, raising concerns about the company's ability to scale profitably. The negative TTM net income of -$34 million means the forward P/E of 177x is based on optimistic estimates, leaving no margin for error.
Market & Competitive Risks: Viasat trades at a P/S of 1.33x, a discount to the industry average of 1.5x, but the EV/Sales of 3.16x reflects its debt load. The stock's beta of 1.703 makes it highly sensitive to macro shocks, and the recent 30.79% drawdown from the 52-week high demonstrates volatility. Competitive risks include potential disruption from other satellite operators (e.g., Starlink) and defense contractors. The Golden Dome missile defense system's cost escalation to $1.2 trillion could also create budget uncertainty for defense programs, though Viasat's Space Force contract may be insulated. Recent news highlights the contract win as a positive catalyst, but any negative headlines about defense spending cuts could pressure the stock.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the Space Force contract faces delays or cost overruns, or if Viasat fails to convert it into the $4 billion program, the stock could lose its growth premium. In this scenario, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $49, representing a 31.5% decline from the current price of $71.48. This aligns with the 52-week low of $14.00, but given the improved fundamentals, a drop to $49 is a more realistic worst-case. An investor could lose up to 31.5% in this adverse scenario, with additional downside if revenue growth stalls and margins compress further.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Execution risk on the Space Force contract—any delays or cost overruns could derail the bullish thesis and send the stock to $49 (31.5% downside). 2) Financial risk from elevated debt (debt-to-equity of 1.49) and thin operating margins (-0.05% in Q4), which limit earnings power. 3) Valuation risk from a forward P/E of 177x, which leaves no margin for error if earnings disappoint. 4) Macro risk from high beta (1.703), making the stock sensitive to interest rate changes and market downturns. The most severe risk is the binary nature of the defense catalyst—if it fails, the stock could lose over 30% of its value.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: Bull case (30% probability) targets $94.56–$140, driven by successful Space Force contract expansion and revenue acceleration. Base case (45% probability) targets $71.48–$94.56, assuming gradual execution and modest growth. Bear case (25% probability) targets $49–$71.48, if the contract faces delays or revenue stagnates. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock trending toward the analyst average of $94.56 as the company demonstrates steady progress. The AI assessment is cautiously bullish, citing the low P/S and strong cash flow as supports, but the high forward P/E and flat revenue growth warrant caution.
VSAT appears undervalued on a price-to-sales basis, with a trailing P/S of 1.33x, which is at an 11% discount to the Communication Equipment industry average of 1.5x and near the low end of its historical range of 1.0x–6.0x. However, on a forward P/E of 177x, it looks extremely overvalued, reflecting the market's expectation of a dramatic earnings recovery. The EV/Sales of 3.16x is elevated due to debt. Overall, the valuation is mixed: the low P/S suggests value, but the high P/E implies speculative growth expectations. The market is pricing in a successful turnaround but not yet a premium for defense growth, creating potential upside if execution improves.
VSAT is a high-risk, high-reward buy for investors willing to bet on the Space Force contract catalyst. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $94.56, implying 32% upside from $71.48. However, the forward P/E of 177x leaves no room for error, and the stock's beta of 1.703 means it will amplify market moves. It is a good buy for those who believe the defense contract will drive revenue acceleration and margin expansion, but it is not suitable for risk-averse investors. The biggest downside risk is a 31.5% decline to the low target of $49 if execution falters.
VSAT is better suited for a medium-term investment horizon of 12-24 months, as the primary catalyst (Space Force contract) is expected to unfold over the next few quarters. The stock's high beta (1.703) and recent volatility (30.79% drawdown from highs) make it unsuitable for short-term trading without strict risk management. For long-term investors, the company's transition to defense revenue could provide sustained growth, but the high debt and execution risk require patience. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow the contract to materialize. The stock pays no dividend, so it is not for income seekers.