Viasat
VSAT
$74.72
+0.93%
Viasat Inc is a global communications technology company that provides satellite and wireless networking solutions, serving government, commercial mobility, and residential broadband customers through its Communication Services and Defense and Advanced Technologies segments. As a leading player in the satellite communications industry, Viasat is distinguished by its vertically integrated satellite fleet, advanced cybersecurity offerings, and a strong foothold in defense contracts, positioning it as a key partner for military and government agencies. The current investor narrative centers on Viasat's transformative growth trajectory, driven by recent high-profile Space Force contract wins, the completion of its satellite deployment, and a strategic pivot toward predictable, high-margin defense revenue, which has fueled a dramatic stock re-rating and optimism about future profitability.…
VSAT
Viasat
$74.72
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy VSAT Today?
Rating: Buy. Viasat is a high-risk, high-reward growth stock with a clear catalyst in defense contracts and improving profitability. The analyst consensus is 'Buy' with an average target of $101.44, implying 35.8% upside, which supports a positive outlook.
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VSAT 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, driven by the strong contract wins and improving profitability, but tempered by the high valuation and execution risks. The stock's low PS ratio and positive earnings inflection suggest upside potential, but the extreme forward PE requires flawless execution. If the company delivers on defense revenue and maintains profitability, the stock could re-rate significantly. However, any miss would likely trigger a sharp correction. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if revenue growth exceeds 10% and margins expand, or downgraded to neutral if contract delays emerge.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Viasat's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $101.44 and implied upside of +35.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$101.44
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+35.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$49 - $140
Analyst target range
Viasat is covered by 10 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.64 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $101.44, implying a 35.8% upside from the current price of $74.72, indicating a bullish outlook. The target price range spans from a low of $49.00 to a high of $140.00, with the high target suggesting potential for significant multiple expansion and growth acceleration, while the low target reflects risks such as margin compression or competitive pressures. Recent ratings actions have been predominantly positive, with upgrades from Deutsche Bank (Hold to Buy) and JP Morgan (Neutral to Overweight), and a notable upgrade from Barclays (Underweight to Equal Weight), signaling improving sentiment among institutional investors.
Bulls vs Bears: VSAT Investment Factors
Viasat presents a compelling bull case driven by a transformative Space Force contract, improving profitability, and a historically low PS ratio, with analysts seeing 35.8% upside. However, the bear case highlights extreme valuation (forward PE 448x), high debt, and modest revenue growth, which could lead to sharp downside if expectations are not met. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence due to the tangible contract wins and positive earnings inflection, but the single most important tension is whether the defense revenue ramp can justify the premium valuation. If contract execution accelerates, the stock could re-rate significantly; if it disappoints, the high multiple leaves room for a severe correction.
Bullish
- Massive Space Force Contract Win: Viasat secured a foundational $219 million Space Force contract that could expand to a $4 billion program, driving an 18% stock surge on June 11, 2026. This positions the company as a key defense partner, providing a multi-year revenue pipeline and high-margin growth potential.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: With 10 analysts, the consensus is 'Buy' (mean score 1.64), and the average target price is $101.44, implying 35.8% upside from the current $74.72. Recent upgrades from Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, and Barclays signal improving institutional sentiment.
- Revenue Growth and Profitability Turnaround: Q4 FY2026 revenue grew 2.11% YoY to $1.171B, and the company posted positive EPS of $0.41, a sharp improvement from the -$1.89 loss a year earlier. This marks a critical inflection point toward sustained profitability.
- Undervalued on Price-to-Sales: The current PS ratio of 1.33x is significantly below the historical average of 4-5x, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in the defense-driven growth and satellite capacity utilization. This implies substantial re-rating potential.
Bearish
- Extremely High Forward PE: The forward PE of 448.31x indicates the market is pricing in massive future earnings growth, leaving little room for error. Any disappointment in execution or contract timing could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- High Debt and Interest Burden: Debt-to-equity is 1.49, and quarterly interest expense is around $78-100M, consuming a significant portion of EBITDA. This leverage amplifies financial risk, especially if cash flows underperform.
- Revenue Growth is Modest: Revenue growth of only 2.11% YoY is sluggish for a growth stock, and the last four quarters have been flat. The market's high expectations rely on defense contracts materializing faster than current trends suggest.
- High Volatility and Beta: With a beta of 1.727, the stock is 72.7% more volatile than the market, and the 1-month relative strength is -1.98%, indicating recent underperformance. This makes it a risky hold for risk-averse investors.
VSAT Technical Analysis
Viasat's stock has exhibited a powerful sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +180.74%, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's +20.48% gain. The current price of $74.72 sits at approximately 80% of its 52-week range (low: $26.10, high: $93.03), indicating that the stock is trading near the upper end of its range, reflecting strong momentum and investor confidence, though it also suggests the potential for overextension. The stock's beta of 1.727 implies it is 72.7% more volatile than the broader market, which is crucial for risk management and position sizing.
Beta
1.73
1.73x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$26-$93
Price range past year
Annual Return
+180.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | VSAT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.5% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +0.2% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +60.7% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +180.7% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +98.6% | +12.3% |
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VSAT Fundamental Analysis
Viasat's revenue has shown steady growth, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ending March 31, 2026) reporting $1.171 billion, a 2.11% YoY increase. Over the past four quarters, revenue has remained relatively stable, ranging from $1.141 billion to $1.171 billion, indicating a mature, slow-growth phase. The company's revenue is primarily driven by its Communication Services segment, which generated $803.7 million in service revenue, while product revenue contributed $367.6 million, highlighting the services-led business model. The modest growth rate suggests that Viasat is in a consolidation phase, with the potential for acceleration from new defense contracts and satellite capacity.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
25.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$597111000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is VSAT Overvalued?
Given that Viasat's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.0055), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as PE ratios are not meaningful for loss-making companies. The current PS ratio is 1.33x, which is significantly lower than the company's historical average of around 4-5x, indicating that the market is pricing in a recovery in profitability. The forward PE ratio of 448.31x suggests that analysts expect earnings to turn positive in the near term, but the extremely high multiple reflects the market's anticipation of substantial future growth, likely driven by defense contracts and satellite utilization.
PE
-183.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 28x~52x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are substantial: Viasat carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.49, and quarterly interest expenses of $78-100 million consume a large portion of EBITDA, which was $532 million in Q4 FY2026. The company's net margin is negative (-0.73% TTM), and while it posted positive EPS of $0.41 in the latest quarter, this is fragile and dependent on continued cost control and revenue growth. Cash flow is positive (FCF TTM $597 million), but the high leverage amplifies the impact of any operational shortfall, and the forward PE of 448x leaves no room for earnings misses.