YETI
YETI
$46.95
-2.86%
YETI Holdings designs, markets, and distributes premium outdoor and recreation products — coolers and equipment (Tundra, Hopper, Roadie), drinkware (Rambler, Yonder), and related accessories — sold through wholesale dealer networks and a growing direct-to-consumer channel. The company is a brand-driven premium niche player rather than a mass-market manufacturer: it outsources production and invests heavily in marketing and product design to sustain pricing power in a category increasingly crowded by cheaper imitators. The current investor debate centers on whether YETI can reaccelerate growth after a soft patch, with bulls pointing to Q2 FY2026 revenue growth of 8.5% year-over-year, a 66.7% gross margin, and a Stifel upgrade to Buy in September, while bears highlight the August post-earnings selloff tied to a 7% decline in adjusted operating income masked by one-time tariff benefits and buybacks. With a forward P/E near 13x against a 33.7% one-year share gain, the narrative has shifted from growth-scarcity to a debate over margin durability, tariff exposure, and whether drinkware can carry the franchise as cooler demand normalizes.…
YETI
YETI
$46.95
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy YETI Today?
Rating: Buy (moderate conviction). The thesis is that YETI is a premium branded franchise trading at a forward P/E of 13.38x against consensus FY2026 EPS of $3.79, while 12 of 16 analysts rate Buy with zero Sells and an average target of $54.25 implying +20.9% upside from $44.85 — a risk/reward skewed favorably as long as the Q2 gross margin of 66.66% proves more than a tariff-flattered anomaly. The core reasoning is that the market has already de-rated the stock aggressively (PS from 7.67x to 1.93x, trailing PE from 69.9x in Q1 FY2026 to 21.87x), so much of the margin-compression risk is priced in, and any stabilization in operating margin toward the 15.1% level of Q4 FY2024 would support re-rating toward the consensus target.
Supporting evidence is concrete: revenue grew 8.52% year-over-year to $483.87 million in Q2 FY2026, a sequential acceleration from Q1's 8.3%, with full-year consensus revenue of roughly $2.44 billion implying 7-8% growth; trailing free cash flow of $207.41 million against a $3.6 billion market cap yields about 5.7%, and the company repurchased $130.05 million of stock in Q2 alone; ROE of 25.43% and ROA of 11.32% are strong for consumer discretionary; and the balance sheet is sound with debt-to-equity of 0.35 and a current ratio of 1.98. On valuation, the forward P/E of 13.38x is 39% below the trailing 21.87x, EV/EBITDA of 13.28x is in line with mature consumer peers rather than premium-brand comps, and PS of 1.93x sits at the bottom of the stock's own 2023-2025 band of 5.7x-9.7x — the market is paying a discount, not a premium, for a 57.41% gross margin franchise.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) margin durability — if the 66.66% Q2 gross margin was purely tariff-driven and adjusted operating income keeps declining (it fell 7% year-over-year despite the EPS beat), the $3.79 forward EPS will not materialize; (2) SG&A at $229.01 million, or 47.3% of revenue, versus the 43.9% implied in Q2 FY2025, showing promotional spend is rising to defend share; and (3) the mix shift toward drinkware ($241.38 million versus $232.40 million in coolers), the category most exposed to cheaper imitators. This Buy would upgrade to high conviction if Q3/Q4 operating margin holds at or above 15% with gross margin above 60% ex-tariff, and would downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or operating margin falls below 10%. Verdict: undervalued relative to its own history and fairly-to-cheap versus peers, but the discount is earned until margins prove durable.
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YETI 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking view is constructive but not high-conviction: at 13.38x forward earnings for a 57.41% gross margin franchise with 25.43% ROE and a 5.7% FCF yield, the stock prices in substantial margin skepticism that the analyst consensus of $3.79 FY2026 EPS does not share. The 8.52% revenue reacceleration and the Stifel and Goldman upgrades suggest sentiment is turning, while the 86% spread between the $43 low and $80 high targets confirms the debate is about margin durability rather than demand. The key swing factor is whether the 66.66% Q2 gross margin survives the lapse of one-time tariff benefits — if it does and operating margin recovers toward 15%, the stock re-rates toward $54.25 and potentially higher; if it does not, the $39-40 support shelf and then the $32.26 low come into play. I would upgrade to high confidence on a Q3 print showing gross margin above 60% ex-tariff with operating margin at or above 13%, and downgrade to neutral if revenue growth falls below 5% or operating margin drops under 10%. The 1.63 beta and 4.01 short ratio mean position sizing should account for sharp moves around the next earnings catalyst in either direction.
Wall Street consensus
Coverage is solid for a $3.6 billion mid-cap, with 16 analysts and a distribution of 12 Buy, 5 Hold, and 0 Sell — a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating 1.71 on a 1-5 scale) that leans clearly bullish. The average target price of $54.25 implies +20.9% upside from the current $44.85, and notably the consensus EPS estimate of $3.79 for FY2026 is well above the trailing $0.046 figure, confirming that analysts expect a sharp earnings rebound. Recent rating actions support the constructive tilt: Stifel upgraded to Buy from Hold on September 18, 2026, and Goldman Sachs moved to Buy from Neutral on July 20, 2026, while Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight, October 27) and B of A (Neutral, August 14) remain on the sidelines.
The target range of $43.00 to $80.00 is exceptionally wide — a 86% spread from low to high — signaling genuine disagreement about the margin trajectory rather than mere timing. The $80 high target requires multiple expansion back toward historical PS levels plus successful margin recovery and drinkware-led growth, while the $43 low sits essentially at the current price and prices in continued operating income erosion, tariff pressure, and share loss to cheaper competitors. The tight cluster of Hold-equivalent ratings from Morgan Stanley, B of A, and Canaccord suggests the bear camp is anchored on the August earnings disappointment, and with a 4.01 short ratio, the stock is vulnerable to sharp moves in either direction around the next earnings catalyst — investors should treat the consensus target as a directional signal, not a precise price objective.
Bulls vs Bears: YETI Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence: 12 of 16 analysts rate Buy with zero Sells, the average target implies +20.9% upside, revenue is reaccelerating at 8.5%, and the forward P/E of 13.4x is cheap for a 57.4% gross margin franchise with 25.4% ROE and a 5.7% FCF yield. However, the bear case is not weak — the 7% decline in adjusted operating income, the 47.3% SG&A ratio, and the collapse in PS from 7.67x to 1.93x show real margin pressure and a market that has structurally de-rated the stock. The single most important tension is margin durability: if the Q2 gross margin of 66.66% proves to be a tariff-flattered anomaly rather than a new baseline, the forward EPS of $3.79 that justifies the 13.4x multiple will not materialize, and the stock retests its $32.26 low. Conversely, if operating margins stabilize near the 15% level seen in Q4 FY2024, the current multiple leaves substantial room for re-rating toward the $54.25 consensus target.
Bullish
- Forward P/E of 13.4x is cheap: YETI trades at 13.38x forward earnings versus 21.87x trailing, a 39% compression that implies the market is pricing in the consensus FY2026 EPS of $3.79. For a branded consumer franchise with a 57.4% gross margin and 25.4% ROE, that multiple is well below the premium levels the stock historically commanded (PS of 5.7x-9.7x across 2023-2025 versus 1.93x today).
- Analyst consensus firmly bullish: Of 16 analysts, 12 rate Buy and none rate Sell, producing a mean recommendation of 1.71 (buy). The average target of $54.25 implies +20.9% upside from $44.85, and recent upgrades from Stifel (September 18) and Goldman Sachs (July 20) show sentiment improving rather than deteriorating.
- Revenue growth reaccelerating: Q2 FY2026 revenue of $483.87 million grew 8.52% year-over-year, a sequential acceleration from Q1's 8.3% growth. Full-year consensus revenue of roughly $2.44 billion implies 7-8% growth, and the mix shift toward drinkware ($241.38 million, now the largest segment) shows the brand can extend beyond its cooler heritage.
- Strong balance sheet and cash generation: Debt-to-equity of 0.35 and a current ratio of 1.98 provide ample financial flexibility, while trailing free cash flow of $207.41 million against a $3.6 billion market cap yields roughly 5.7%. The company repurchased $130.05 million of stock in Q2 alone, signaling management confidence in internal cash generation.
Bearish
- Operating income actually declined 7%: The Q2 EPS beat was flattered by one-time tariff benefits and buybacks, masking a 7% decline in adjusted operating income. SG&A of $229.01 million consumed 47.3% of revenue, and the trailing operating margin of 11.43% sits well below the 15.1% posted in Q4 FY2024, showing the company is spending more to defend share.
- Valuation de-rating may be structural: The PS ratio has collapsed from 7.67x in Q2 FY2026's reported snapshot and 5.90x at FY2025 year-end to 1.93x today, while the PE fell from 69.9x in Q1 FY2026 to 21.87x. This compression reflects both earnings growth and multiple contraction — the market has de-rated the stock even as fundamentals improved, which may signal expectations of structural growth deceleration rather than a temporary discount.
- Drinkware now leads, raising imitation risk: Drinkware at $241.38 million has overtaken coolers and equipment at $232.40 million as the largest segment. This shifts the franchise toward the more competitive, lower-ticket category where cheaper imitators pose the greatest threat, while the cooler franchise that built the brand is no longer the growth engine.
- High beta amplifies drawdowns: With a beta of 1.63, YETI is 63% more volatile than the S&P 500, and its max drawdown of -30.08% over the trailing period illustrates how a modest market pullback can become a painful loss. The stock is down 14.59% over three months against SPY's -2.01%, a -12.58 point relative strength gap.
YETI Technical Analysis
YETI is in a choppy, range-bound recovery rather than a clean uptrend: the stock is up 33.72% over the past year but sits at $44.85, roughly 48.5% of the way through its 52-week range of $32.26 to $53.99, having failed twice near the $52-53 ceiling (July and August 2026). That positioning — mid-range after a strong 12-month run — signals neither momentum overextension nor a falling knife, but rather a market that has repriced the name higher and is now waiting for fundamental confirmation. The 52-week high of $53.99 was set in early August before the Q2 print, and the subsequent gap down to $45.47 on August 13 remains the key overhead supply zone.
Short-term momentum has turned constructive even as the intermediate trend deteriorated: the stock is up 9.74% over the past month versus a -1.99% decline in SPY, a relative strength spread of +11.73 points, yet it is down 14.59% over three months against SPY's -2.01% (relative strength -12.58). This divergence — strong 1-month bounce inside a weak 3-month slide — is classic mean-reversion off the $39-40 support shelf tested repeatedly in September and October, not yet a confirmed trend reversal. The rebound from $39.01 on October 12 to $45.42 on November 2 (+16.4% in three weeks) on modest volume of roughly 1.3 million shares suggests short covering and dip-buying rather than institutional accumulation, and the 4.01 short ratio indicates a meaningful bearish cohort that could fuel further squeezes.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the $39-40 zone (October lows, ~13% below spot) with the 52-week low of $32.26 as the deeper floor, while resistance is the $52.50-54.00 band where the stock stalled in July-August. A breakout above $54 would confirm a new leg higher and likely trigger momentum buying toward the analyst high target of $80, whereas a breakdown below $39 would retest the $32.26 low and validate the bear case on margin compression. With a beta of 1.63 — 63% more volatile than the S&P 500 — position sizing must account for amplified drawdowns; the stock's max drawdown of -30.08% over the trailing period illustrates that a 1.63 beta can turn a modest market pullback into a painful loss.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-30.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
—
Price range past year
Annual Return
+40.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | YETI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +16.6% | -5.9% |
| 3m | -10.1% | -5.2% |
| 6m | +13.1% | -0.6% |
| 1y | +40.6% | +8.2% |
| ytd | +4.7% | +7.5% |
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YETI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing at a mid-single-digit pace that is respectable but decelerating from the brand's historical trajectory: Q2 FY2026 revenue of $483.87 million rose 8.52% year-over-year from $445.89 million, a sequential acceleration from Q1's $380.41 million (which grew 8.3% over Q1 FY2025's $351.13 million). The mix is now led by drinkware at $241.38 million versus coolers and equipment at $232.40 million, with other products at $10.08 million — a notable shift, since drinkware is the more competitive, lower-ticket category where imitation risk is highest, while the cooler franchise that built the brand is no longer the largest segment. Full-year consensus revenue of approximately $2.44 billion implies roughly 7-8% growth, consistent with a maturing premium brand rather than a hyper-growth story, and the investment case now hinges on DTC mix and international expansion rather than category tailwinds.
Profitability is solid but under pressure at the operating line: Q2 FY2026 net income was $71.32 million (14.7% net margin) on a 66.66% gross margin, up sharply from Q1's $9.85 million and 55.26% gross margin, reflecting seasonal mix and cost leverage. However, the year-over-year comparison is less flattering — Q2 FY2025 net income was $51.15 million on a 57.76% gross margin, and the 66.66% gross margin this quarter was flattered by one-time tariff benefits that masked a 7% decline in adjusted operating income, with SG&A of $229.01 million consuming 47.3% of revenue. Trailing operating margin of 11.43% and net margin of 8.85% are below the 15.1% operating margin YETI posted in Q4 FY2024, suggesting the company is spending more to defend share in a tougher promotional environment.
The balance sheet is a genuine strength: debt-to-equity of 0.35, a current ratio of 1.98, and trailing free cash flow of $207.41 million against a $3.6 billion market cap imply an FCF yield of roughly 5.7%, while ROE of 25.43% and ROA of 11.32% are strong for a consumer discretionary name. Cash generation is seasonal — Q1 FY2026 operating cash flow was -$32.65 million and FCF -$43.77 million due to working capital build, but Q2 swung to +$62.45 million operating cash flow and +$48.09 million FCF, and the company repurchased $130.05 million of stock in Q2 alone, signaling confidence in internal cash generation. With $59.82 million in cash at Q2 end (down from $127.79 million) after aggressive buybacks and $29.47 million of debt repayment, liquidity is adequate but no longer abundant, making the Q4 cash harvest critical to funding further repurchases.
Quarterly Revenue
$483868000.0B
2026-07
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
66.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$207407000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is YETI Overvalued?
Because YETI is profitable (Q2 net income of $71.32 million, positive trailing EPS), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric: the stock trades at 21.87x trailing earnings but only 13.38x forward earnings, a 39% compression that implies the market expects meaningful EPS growth — consistent with consensus FY2026 EPS of $3.79 versus the current trailing figure. The wide trailing-to-forward gap is the single most important valuation signal here: investors are being asked to pay a modest 13x for next year's earnings, which is cheap for a branded consumer franchise, but that discount exists precisely because the market doubts the durability of margin expansion after the Q2 operating income decline.
On peer-relative grounds, YETI screens inexpensive: its PS ratio of 1.93x and EV/Sales of 1.79x are well below the premium multiples the stock historically commanded (PS ranged from 5.7x to 9.7x across 2023-2025 quarterly snapshots), and its EV/EBITDA of 13.28x is roughly in line with mature consumer discretionary peers rather than premium-brand comps. The gross margin of 57.41% and net margin of 8.85% justify a modest premium to mass-market peers, but the 11.43% operating margin and decelerating growth argue against a luxury-brand multiple; the current 1.93x sales multiple effectively prices YETI as a solid but unexceptional consumer company, leaving room for re-rating if margins stabilize.
Historically, YETI's valuation sits near the bottom of its own multi-year band: the PS ratio has compressed from 7.67x in Q2 FY2026's reported snapshot and 5.90x at FY2025 year-end to 1.93x today, while the PE ratio of 21.87x compares favorably to the 69.9x recorded in Q1 FY2026 and the 41.4x in Q1 FY2025. This compression reflects both earnings growth and multiple contraction — the market has de-rated the stock even as fundamentals improved, which is either a value opportunity (if margins hold) or a warning that the market sees structural growth deceleration. The PEG ratio of -22.64 is not meaningful given negative near-term growth comparisons and should be disregarded; the forward PE of 13.38x against a 33.7% one-year price gain suggests the rally has been earnings-driven rather than multiple-driven, a healthier foundation than it first appears.
PE
21.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~70x
vs. Industry Avg
21.9x
Industry PE ~21.9x*
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on margin fragility and cash seasonality. The Q2 gross margin of 66.66% was flattered by one-time tariff benefits that masked a 7% decline in adjusted operating income, and SG&A of $229.01 million consumed 47.3% of revenue — up from the 43.9% implied in Q2 FY2025. Trailing operating margin of 11.43% is well below the 15.1% posted in Q4 FY2024, and with cash down to $59.82 million from $127.79 million after $130.05 million of buybacks and $29.47 million of debt repayment, liquidity is adequate but no longer abundant, making the Q4 cash harvest critical to funding further repurchases. Revenue concentration is also shifting toward drinkware ($241.38 million versus $232.40 million in coolers), the more imitation-prone category.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and brand erosion. The PS ratio has fallen from 7.67x to 1.93x and the PE from 69.9x to 21.87x, meaning the market has already de-rated the stock even as fundamentals improved — a warning that further multiple contraction is possible if growth decelerates below the current 8.5%. With a beta of 1.63, YETI is 63% more volatile than the S&P 500, so any macro risk-off episode (such as the February 2026 Iran tensions that pressured broader markets) would hit the stock disproportionately. The August 13 post-earnings gap down to $45.47 remains overhead supply, and the 4.01 short ratio means sharp moves in either direction around the next earnings catalyst are likely.
Worst-case scenario: a Q3 or Q4 print showing that the Q2 gross margin was purely tariff-driven, combined with continued operating income erosion and share loss to cheaper competitors, would trigger analyst downgrades and a retest of support. The stock already sits at $44.85, roughly 48.5% of its 52-week range, and a breakdown below the $39-40 October support shelf would open the path to the 52-week low of $32.26 — a decline of approximately -28% from the current price. The analyst low target of $43.00 offers little cushion, and the trailing max drawdown of -30.08% shows this magnitude of loss is well within historical experience for a 1.63-beta name.
FAQ
The most severe risk is margin durability: the 66.66% Q2 gross margin was boosted by one-time tariff benefits that masked a 7% decline in adjusted operating income, and trailing operating margin of 11.43% is well below the 15.1% seen in Q4 FY2024 — if the benefit lapses, the $3.79 forward EPS underpinning the 13.38x multiple is at risk. Second is cost and competitive pressure: SG&A of $229.01 million consumed 47.3% of revenue versus 43.9% a year earlier, and drinkware at $241.38 million is now the largest segment, exposing the franchise to cheaper imitators in its most commoditized category. Third is valuation and volatility risk: with a beta of 1.63, YETI is 63% more volatile than the S&P 500, its trailing max drawdown is -30.08%, and it is down 14.59% over three months against SPY's -2.01%, so macro risk-off episodes hit disproportionately. Fourth is company-specific execution and sentiment risk: the August 13 post-earnings gap down to $45.47 remains overhead supply, the analyst target range of $43.00 to $80.00 is an 86% spread signaling real disagreement, and a 4.01 short ratio means sharp moves around earnings in either direction.
The 12-month outlook splits into three scenarios. The base case (50% probability, $44.00-$54.25) assumes 7-8% revenue growth toward the $2.44 billion consensus, gross margin normalizing to the mid-to-high 50s as tariff benefits lapse, operating margin stabilizing at 12-13%, and EPS near $3.79, letting the stock grind toward the $54.25 average target without a clean breakout above $52.50-54.00. The bull case (25% probability, $54.25-$80.00) requires the 66.66% Q2 gross margin to prove a new baseline, operating margin recovering toward 15.1%, and drinkware-led growth sustaining the 8.5% trajectory, with catalysts including a Q3 print above 60% gross margin ex-tariff and further upgrades following Stifel and Goldman Sachs. The bear case (25% probability, $32.26-$43.00) is triggered if margins revert sharply, adjusted operating income keeps eroding, and drinkware loses share, forcing EPS cuts and a retest of the $39-40 support shelf and then the $32.26 low. The base case is most likely, and its key assumption is that the forward multiple of 13.38x holds while margins normalize rather than collapse.
YETI screens undervalued on both absolute and historical measures. The forward P/E of 13.38x is 39% below the trailing 21.87x, implying the market expects the consensus FY2026 EPS of $3.79 to materialize, while the PS ratio of 1.93x and EV/Sales of 1.79x sit far below the 5.7x-9.7x PS band the stock commanded across 2023-2025. EV/EBITDA of 13.28x is in line with mature consumer discretionary peers rather than premium-brand comparables, despite a 57.41% gross margin that justifies some premium. The compression from a 69.9x PE in Q1 FY2026 to 21.87x today reflects both earnings growth and genuine multiple contraction, meaning the market is pricing YETI as a solid but unexceptional consumer company with structural growth deceleration. If margins stabilize near the 15% operating level of Q4 FY2024, the current multiple leaves substantial room to re-rate toward the $54.25 consensus; if margins erode further, the discount is earned rather than a bargain.
On a risk/reward basis the setup is favorable but conditional: at $44.85 the stock offers +20.9% upside to the $54.25 average analyst target, with 12 of 16 analysts rating Buy and none rating Sell, against downside to the $43.00 low target (roughly -4%) and a deeper floor at the $32.26 52-week low (about -28%). The valuation is undemanding at 13.38x forward earnings for a 57.41% gross margin business with 25.43% ROE and a 5.7% free cash flow yield, and the 8.52% revenue growth is reaccelerating sequentially from Q1's 8.3%. The catch is that the Q2 EPS beat was flattered by one-time tariff benefits and buybacks while adjusted operating income actually fell 7% year-over-year, so the forward EPS of $3.79 that anchors the multiple is not yet proven. It is a good buy for investors with a 12-18 month horizon who can tolerate a 1.63 beta and who size the position for a possible retest of $39-40; it is a poor buy for anyone needing near-term certainty or income, given the 0% dividend yield.
YETI is better suited to a medium-to-long-term holding than to short-term trading. The company is in a maturing growth stage — revenue up 8.52% year-over-year to $483.87 million, full-year consensus near $2.44 billion implying 7-8% growth — with strong profitability (25.43% ROE, 11.32% ROA) and a sound balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.35, current ratio 1.98), which supports a patient thesis built on margin normalization and multiple re-rating rather than momentum. The 1.63 beta, -30.08% max drawdown, and 4.01 short ratio make it a poor vehicle for short-term traders who cannot absorb sharp earnings-driven swings, and the 0% dividend yield means there is no income to cushion the wait. Earnings visibility is moderate rather than high, since the durability of the Q2 gross margin is unresolved and the analyst target range spans $43.00 to $80.00. A concrete suggested minimum holding period is 12-18 months, long enough to see two to three quarterly prints confirm whether operating margin recovers toward the 15% level of Q4 FY2024, with position sizing that assumes a possible retest of the $39-40 support zone.