AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics

$169.05

-2.16%
Jun 12, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is a provider of fiber-optic networking products, serving key end-markets including internet data centers, CATV, telecom, and FTTH. The company operates as a specialized manufacturer in the semiconductor industry, designing and producing optical components, subassemblies, and modules. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly driven by its strategic positioning within the AI data center build-out, with recent institutional buying and analyst upgrades reflecting confidence in its 800G optical transceiver technology, despite the company's ongoing transition from significant losses toward potential profitability.

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AAOI 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $169.05
Average Target $169.05
High Target $194.4075
Low Target $143.6925

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Applied Optoelectronics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $219.77 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$219.77

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$135 - $220

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Insufficient analyst coverage available. The provided data indicates only one analyst providing estimates, with no consensus recommendation or target price data presented. This limited coverage is typical for a small to mid-cap stock like AAOI that has recently captured intense speculative interest, often leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery as the market grapples with its transformative narrative. The wide range in the single analyst's revenue estimate for the upcoming period—from a low of $3.37 billion to a high of $5.05 billion—further underscores the extreme uncertainty and high variance in potential outcomes, making consensus difficult to establish and increasing the stock's risk profile for investors.

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AAOI Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +1085.80%. As of the latest close at $202.89, the price is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range ($15.29 to $233.67), specifically at approximately 87% of that range, indicating strong momentum but also raising concerns about potential overextension after such a parabolic move. Recent momentum remains robust but shows signs of volatility; the 1-month gain of +12.36% and 3-month gain of +112.27% confirm the bullish trend, though the pace has moderated from the explosive 6-month surge of +663.03%, suggesting the stock may be entering a phase of consolidation or heightened volatility. Key technical levels are the 52-week high of $233.67 as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $15.29 as distant support; a breakout above resistance would signal a continuation of the speculative rally, while a breakdown below recent consolidation lows near $150 could trigger a significant correction. The stock's extreme volatility is quantified by a beta of 3.759, meaning it is approximately 276% more volatile than the broader market, which necessitates careful risk management for investors given the potential for sharp swings in both directions.

Beta

3.67

3.67x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-47.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$15-$234

Price range past year

Annual Return

+899.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAAOI ReturnS&P 500
1m-24.2%-0.1%
3m+74.6%+12.0%
6m+427.3%+8.8%
1y+899.1%+22.9%
ytd+326.9%+8.8%

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AAOI Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has accelerated dramatically, with Q4 2025 revenue of $134.27 million representing a year-over-year increase of 33.91%. Segment data reveals the Data Center segment ($74.88 million) as the primary growth driver, significantly outpacing the CATV segment ($54.00 million) and Telecom ($5.11 million), underscoring the investment thesis tied to AI infrastructure demand. The company remains unprofitable on a net income basis, with a Q4 2025 net loss of -$2.02 million, but this marks a monumental improvement from the net loss of -$119.69 million in Q4 2024; gross margin improved to 31.24% in the latest quarter from 28.65% a year ago, indicating better pricing power and cost management amidst scaling revenues. The balance sheet shows a strong current ratio of 2.63 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, suggesting adequate liquidity and low financial leverage; however, trailing twelve-month free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$174.67 million, and Return on Equity (ROE) is negative at -5.21%, highlighting that despite revenue growth, the company is still burning cash and not yet generating positive returns for shareholders, relying on external financing for its expansion.

Quarterly Revenue

$134274000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.33%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.31%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-174666000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

CATV
Data Center
Telecom

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Valuation Analysis: Is AAOI Overvalued?

Given the negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 4.60x, while the forward-looking metric, EV-to-Sales, is significantly higher at 28.82x; this substantial gap implies the market is pricing in extremely aggressive future sales growth and a rapid path to profitability, far beyond the current trailing results. Peer comparison data is not available in the provided dataset, preventing a direct sector premium/discount analysis; however, the elevated forward EV/Sales multiple of 28.8x suggests the market is valuing AAOI as a high-growth, speculative story rather than on current fundamentals. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly; the current PS of 4.60x is below the recent historical high of 18.26x recorded at the end of Q4 2025 but well above the lows seen in 2022 and 2023 (e.g., 0.87x in Q4 2022), indicating that while it has retreated from a recent peak, it remains valued at a level that embeds significant growth expectations, leaving little room for operational missteps.

PE

-54.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -303x~-1x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-132.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple