AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics

$111.88

-6.70%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. designs and manufactures fiber-optic networking products for internet data center, CATV, telecom, and FTTH end-markets. The company is a niche player in optical communications, competing with larger peers by focusing on high-speed transceivers for AI data centers. Investor attention is currently driven by the company's potential to capitalize on the AI infrastructure buildout, particularly its 800G optical transceivers, despite ongoing net losses and a volatile stock price that has surged over 300% in the past year.

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AAOI 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $111.88
Average Target $111.88
High Target $128.66
Low Target $95.10

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Applied Optoelectronics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $145.44 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$145.44

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$90 - $145

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Only 1 analyst covers AAOI, with a consensus recommendation of Buy. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but the estimated EPS average is $11.60, implying a forward PE of 10.3x based on the current price of $119.92. This suggests significant upside if profitability materializes. The limited coverage implies AAOI is a small-cap stock with less institutional interest, leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. Insufficient analyst coverage available; the single analyst's estimates show a wide range of EPS from $8.71 to $14.80, indicating high uncertainty. The lack of a formal target price and consensus distribution means investors must rely on broader market sentiment and fundamental analysis.

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AAOI Technical Analysis

The stock is in a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +324.5%. The current price of $119.92 sits at 46.5% of its 52-week range ($18.50 to $233.67), indicating it has pulled back significantly from its highs but remains well above the low. This positioning suggests the stock is in a correction phase after a massive rally, potentially offering a value entry if the uptrend resumes. Short-term momentum is sharply negative, with a 1-month price change of -31.5% and a 3-month change of -20.4%. This divergence from the 1-year trend signals a significant pullback, possibly a mean reversion or profit-taking after the stock's parabolic rise. The relative strength vs. SPY is -35.6% over 1 month, confirming underperformance. Key support is at the 52-week low of $18.50, but more immediate support may form near the recent lows around $114. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $233.67. A breakout above $233.67 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $114 could lead to further downside. The beta of 3.687 indicates the stock is 268.7% more volatile than the market, implying significant risk and potential for large swings.

Beta

3.69

3.69x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-49.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$19-$234

Price range past year

Annual Return

+293.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAAOI ReturnS&P 500
1m-33.8%+1.0%
3m-23.6%+7.9%
6m+224.6%+8.5%
1y+293.9%+20.1%
ytd+182.5%+9.9%

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AAOI Fundamental Analysis

Revenue is growing strongly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $134.3 million, up 33.9% year-over-year. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth: Q1 2025 revenue was $99.9 million, Q2 $103.0 million, Q3 $118.6 million, and Q4 $134.3 million. The Data Center segment is the primary driver, contributing $74.9 million in the latest period, while CATV added $54.0 million and Telecom $5.1 million. This growth trajectory supports the investment case centered on AI data center demand. The company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $2.0 million in Q4 2025 and a trailing net margin of -8.4%. Gross margin improved to 31.2% in Q4 2025 from 28.6% a year ago, indicating better cost management. However, operating margin was -8.6%, and the company has negative EPS of -$0.0288. The trajectory toward profitability is uncertain, but narrowing losses suggest progress. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, indicating low leverage. However, free cash flow is negative, with TTM FCF of -$174.7 million, and the company relies on external financing, as seen in $176.4 million in common stock issued in Q4 2025. The current ratio of 2.63 suggests adequate liquidity, but negative FCF raises concerns about long-term sustainability without continued capital raises.

Quarterly Revenue

$134274000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+33.91%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

31.24%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-174666000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

CATV
Data Center
Telecom

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Valuation Analysis: Is AAOI Overvalued?

Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 4.60, while the forward PS ratio is not directly provided but can be estimated using forward revenue estimates. The gap between trailing and forward multiples implies the market expects significant revenue growth. Compared to the semiconductor industry average PS ratio (not provided, but typically around 3-5x), AAOI's PS of 4.60 is in line with the sector. However, given its negative margins, this multiple appears stretched relative to profitable peers. Historically, AAOI's PS ratio has ranged from below 1x in 2022 to over 18x in late 2025. The current PS of 4.60 is near the lower end of its recent range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history, but this may reflect deteriorating fundamentals or lower growth expectations.

PE

-54.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -303x~-1x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-132.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple