AngloGold Ashanti
AU
$97.25
+1.07%
AngloGold Ashanti plc is an independent gold mining company with a diversified portfolio of operations across eight countries, including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Ghana, Guinea, the DRC, and Tanzania, and greenfield projects in the US and Colombia. As one of the world's largest gold producers, it competes with peers like Newmont and Barrick, distinguishing itself through a broad geographic footprint and a focus on high-margin assets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust growth trajectory, driven by record gold prices and operational improvements, while also weighing the impact of macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions that influence gold demand and production costs.…
AU
AngloGold Ashanti
$97.25
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy AU Today?
Rating: Buy. AngloGold Ashanti offers a compelling risk-reward with a forward PE of 8.79x and a PEG of 0.13, indicating undervaluation relative to growth. The consensus target of $113.13 implies 29.2% upside, and the company's strong revenue growth of 64.85% YoY supports this view. However, investors should be aware of the high PB ratio and gold price sensitivity.
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AU 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by exceptional revenue growth and undervaluation on forward earnings. The stock's low forward PE and high growth rate suggest significant upside potential. However, the medium confidence reflects the uncertainty around gold prices and macro conditions. If gold prices remain strong, the stock could re-rate higher; if they falter, the thesis weakens. Key developments to watch include quarterly earnings, gold price trends, and any changes in analyst targets.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AngloGold Ashanti's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $113.13 and implied upside of +16.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$113.13
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+16.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$76 - $134
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $76.00 to a high of $134.00, indicating a wide spread of 76% from low to high, which reflects significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $134 assumes continued strength in gold prices and successful execution of growth projects, while the low target of $76 factors in potential declines in gold prices or operational setbacks. Recent ratings have been consistently positive, with firms like RBC Capital, Citigroup, and JP Morgan maintaining or reiterating Buy/Outperform ratings, suggesting analysts remain confident in the company's prospects despite recent price volatility.
Bulls vs Bears: AU Investment Factors
AngloGold Ashanti presents a compelling bull case with explosive revenue growth, strong margins, and a forward PE of 8.79x, suggesting undervaluation. However, the bear case highlights the stock's high PB ratio, dependence on gold prices, and significant drawdown from highs. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence due to the company's exceptional operational performance and analyst optimism, but the key tension lies in gold price sustainability. If gold prices remain elevated, the stock could re-rate higher; conversely, a sharp decline in gold could trigger a severe correction. The most important factor to watch is the trajectory of gold prices and the company's ability to maintain production growth.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 64.85% YoY to $3.236B, with sequential acceleration from $1.963B in Q1 2025 to $3.068B in Q4 2025. This growth is driven by record gold prices and increased production, positioning the company for continued earnings expansion.
- Undervalued on Forward Earnings: With a forward PE of 8.79x versus trailing PE of 16.43x, the market expects substantial earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.13 suggests the stock is deeply undervalued relative to its growth rate, offering significant upside potential.
- Strong Profitability and Margins: Gross margin expanded to 58.19% in Q1 2026, up from 42.74% in Q1 2025, while operating margin reached 56.83%. Net margin improved to 39.59%, reflecting operational leverage and cost control.
- Positive Analyst Sentiment: Consensus rating is 'Buy' with a mean score of 1.625, and the average target price of $113.13 implies 29.2% upside from the current price of $87.59. Recent ratings from RBC, Citigroup, and JP Morgan are Buy/Outperform.
Bearish
- High Valuation on Book Value: The price-to-book ratio of 5.35x is elevated, indicating the market is paying a premium for the company's assets. This could lead to multiple compression if growth slows or gold prices decline.
- Significant Drawdown from Highs: The stock has fallen 32.2% from its 52-week high of $129.14 to $87.59, and the max drawdown over the period was -41.62%. This volatility may deter risk-averse investors.
- Dependence on Gold Prices: Revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to gold prices. A decline in gold prices, as seen in recent stagflation fears, could severely impact earnings. The stock's beta of 0.70 does not fully hedge against commodity price swings.
- High Payout Ratio and Dividend Sustainability: The payout ratio is 70.98%, which is high for a cyclical company. If earnings decline, dividend cuts could occur, negatively impacting income-focused investors.
AU Technical Analysis
AngloGold Ashanti's stock has exhibited a strong long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +50.29%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +21.46% over the same period. The current price of $87.59 sits at approximately 44% of the 52-week range (low $52.05, high $129.14), indicating the stock has pulled back substantially from its highs but remains well above its low. This positioning suggests the market is in a corrective phase within a broader bullish trend, offering potential value if the pullback stabilizes.
Beta
0.70
0.70x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-41.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$52-$129
Price range past year
Annual Return
+69.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AU Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +18.5% | +2.4% |
| 3m | -6.8% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -13.4% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +69.4% | +21.3% |
| ytd | +13.6% | +13.4% |
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AU Fundamental Analysis
AngloGold Ashanti's revenue trajectory has been exceptionally strong, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $3.236 billion, a 64.85% year-over-year increase. This growth is part of a multi-quarter acceleration, as revenue rose from $1.963 billion in Q1 2025 to $2.445 billion in Q2 2025, $2.417 billion in Q3 2025, and $3.068 billion in Q4 2025, demonstrating consistent expansion. The growth is driven by higher gold prices and increased production volumes, with the company's African operations (including Kibali, Obuasi, and Geita) being key contributors, alongside contributions from the Americas and Australia.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+64.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
58.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$4.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AU Overvalued?
Given that AngloGold Ashanti is highly profitable, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 16.43x, while the forward PE is 8.79x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. This gap suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial increase in earnings, likely driven by continued high gold prices and operational efficiencies.
PE
16.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~17x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high payout ratio of 70.98%, which could pressure dividends if earnings decline. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.30, but interest expenses of $25M in Q1 2026 could rise with higher rates. Cash flow is strong with FCF of $4.0B TTM, but revenue concentration in gold makes earnings volatile. If gold prices drop 20%, net income could fall significantly, impacting the stock's valuation.