Bill.com, LLC
BILL
$43.51
+5.45%
BILL Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based software and payments solutions that automate accounts payable, accounts receivable, and spend management for small and mid-sized businesses. As a leader in the financial automation space, the company differentiates itself through its integrated platform that connects businesses with their suppliers and customers. The current investor narrative centers on BILL's transition to profitability, with the company reporting its first GAAP net profit in Q3 FY2026, while activist investor interest and a 17% core revenue growth signal potential undervaluation despite a 24% stock decline over the past year.…
BILL
Bill.com, LLC
$43.51
Related headlines
BILL 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Bill.com, LLC's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $54.29 and implied upside of +24.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$54.29
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+24.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $77
Analyst target range
BILL is covered by 22 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean score 1.91 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $53.64, implying 20% upside from the current price of $44.71. The distribution leans bullish, with recent actions including upgrades from Truist Securities (Hold to Buy) and reaffirmations from JP Morgan (Overweight) and Goldman Sachs (Buy). The target range spans from $38.00 (low) to $77.00 (high). The high target of $77 assumes a return to growth acceleration and multiple expansion, while the low target of $38 suggests concerns about competitive pressure or margin compression. The spread of $39 (102% of current price) indicates high uncertainty, but the recent positive earnings surprise and activist interest may narrow this gap. The consensus implies confidence in BILL's turnaround story, though the wide range warrants caution.
Bulls vs Bears: BILL Investment Factors
BILL presents a compelling turnaround story with its first GAAP net profit, strong free cash flow, and a forward P/E that appears deeply discounted relative to peers. However, the trailing P/E of 201x and decelerating revenue growth introduce significant risk. The bull case hinges on the company sustaining its profitability trajectory and re-accelerating growth, while the bear case centers on the potential for earnings disappointment and multiple compression. The single most important tension is whether BILL can maintain its recent profitability momentum and deliver the earnings growth implied by the forward P/E, or if competitive pressures and slowing growth will lead to a valuation reset. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the strong cash flow and activist interest, but the high short interest and wide analyst range warrant caution.
Bullish
- First GAAP Net Profit Achieved: BILL reported GAAP net income of $12.8 million in Q3 FY2026, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $11.6 million in the year-ago quarter. This milestone validates the company's path to sustained profitability and reduces earnings risk.
- Forward P/E Discount to Peers: The forward P/E of 13.3x represents a 62% discount to the software industry average of ~35x. If earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be significantly undervalued, offering substantial upside.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow reached $383 million, up from $93.4 million in the prior year quarter. This provides ample internal funding for growth initiatives and reduces reliance on external capital.
- Activist Investor Conviction: A major investor allocated 14% of their portfolio to BILL, signaling strong conviction despite the stock's 24% decline over the past year. This suggests potential undervaluation and could catalyze operational improvements.
Bearish
- Trailing P/E of 201x: The trailing P/E of 201.1x is a 474% premium to the software industry average of 35x. This extreme multiple leaves no room for error and implies that any earnings miss could trigger a severe de-rating.
- Revenue Growth Deceleration: Revenue growth slowed to 13.5% YoY in Q3 FY2026 from 17% in the prior quarter. Continued deceleration could challenge the premium valuation and dampen investor enthusiasm.
- High Short Interest and Volatility: The short ratio of 4.5 days and beta of 1.176 indicate elevated bearish sentiment and market sensitivity. A broad market downturn could exacerbate losses, as seen in the 52-week low of $31.41.
- Wide Analyst Target Range: Analyst targets range from $38 to $77, a spread of $39 (102% of current price). This high uncertainty reflects divergent views on the company's growth trajectory and competitive positioning.
BILL Technical Analysis
BILL is in a recovery phase after a prolonged downtrend, with the 1-year price change of -5.7% masking a sharp 38.9% rally over the past month. The stock currently trades at $44.71, representing 78% of its 52-week range ($31.41–$57.21), suggesting it has rebounded from the lows but remains well below the highs. This positioning indicates improving momentum but not yet overextended, as the stock is still 22% below its 52-week high. The 1-month change of +38.9% dramatically outperforms the S&P 500's +0.3%, while the 3-month change of +15.2% also beats the market's +4.7%. This short-term acceleration diverges from the 1-year decline, signaling a potential trend reversal or mean reversion. The relative strength index (RSI) is not directly provided, but the strong 1-month relative strength of +38.6% versus the S&P 500 suggests bullish momentum. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $31.41, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $57.21. A breakout above $57.21 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $31.41 could indicate further downside. With a beta of 1.176, BILL is 17.6% more volatile than the market, meaning it amplifies market moves—a factor for risk management.
Beta
1.18
1.18x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$31-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-3.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BILL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +30.0% | +0.8% |
| 3m | +17.0% | +3.5% |
| 6m | -10.2% | +7.2% |
| 1y | -3.8% | +16.5% |
| ytd | -13.9% | +8.4% |
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BILL Fundamental Analysis
Revenue grew 13.5% year-over-year to $406.6 million in Q3 FY2026, driven by subscription and transaction fees of $371.1 million (91% of total) and interest income on customer funds of $35.4 million. The growth rate has been decelerating from 17% in the prior quarter, but the company continues to expand its top line. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue rising from $358.5 million in Q1 FY2025 to $406.6 million, indicating steady albeit slowing growth. BILL achieved GAAP net income of $12.8 million in Q3 FY2026, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $2.96 million in the prior quarter and a loss of $11.6 million in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin remains strong at 81.6%, consistent with the software industry, while operating margin improved to 1.1% from -5.2% a year ago, reflecting operating leverage. The company's balance sheet is solid with $1.1 billion in cash and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45, indicating moderate leverage. Free cash flow was $128.5 million in Q3, up from $93.4 million a year ago, and the trailing twelve-month FCF of $383 million provides ample internal funding for growth. ROE improved to 0.6% from negative levels, signaling a return to shareholder value creation.
Quarterly Revenue
$406563000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+13.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
81.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$383057999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is BILL Overvalued?
Since BILL reported positive net income of $12.8 million in Q3 FY2026, the trailing P/E ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing P/E stands at 201.1x, while the forward P/E is 13.3x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The wide gap between trailing and forward P/E reflects the recent swing to profitability and anticipated margin expansion. Compared to the software industry average P/E of approximately 35x, BILL's trailing P/E of 201x is a 474% premium, but the forward P/E of 13.3x represents a 62% discount, suggesting the market is pricing in a dramatic earnings ramp. Historically, BILL's P/E has ranged from negative (when unprofitable) to as high as 184x in Q4 FY2024. The current trailing P/E of 201x is near the top of its historical band, but the forward P/E of 13.3x is near the bottom, indicating that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued. The P/S ratio of 3.3x is well below the 5-year average of ~40x, further supporting a value case.
PE
201.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 54x~185x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
39.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: BILL's primary financial risk is its extreme valuation disparity—a trailing P/E of 201x versus a forward P/E of 13.3x. This implies the market expects a dramatic earnings ramp; any shortfall could lead to severe multiple compression. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 is manageable, but the operating margin of 1.1% (improved from -5.2% a year ago) remains thin, leaving little buffer against cost inflation or revenue shortfalls. Revenue concentration in subscription and transaction fees (91% of total) is typical for SaaS but exposes the company to churn risk if SMB customers tighten budgets.
Market & Competitive Risks: BILL's beta of 1.176 makes it 17.6% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside in bear markets. The stock's 52-week low of $31.41 represents a 30% decline from current levels, and the 52-week high of $57.21 shows the potential for sharp reversals. Competitive threats from larger players like Intuit and SAP Concur could pressure pricing and market share. The recent news of activist investor Starboard Value taking a stake in Fluor (not BILL) highlights that activist interest is not exclusive to BILL, and the company itself faces potential activist pressure to improve margins.
Worst-Case Scenario: If revenue growth decelerates below 10%, margins fail to expand, and the broader market enters a downturn, BILL could see its forward P/E compress to 10x or lower, driving the stock to the analyst low target of $38 or even the 52-week low of $31.41. From the current price of $44.71, this represents a potential loss of 15-30%. The worst-case scenario would be a combination of a growth scare and a macro shock, pushing the stock to $31.41, a 30% decline.