BLDR

Builders FirstSource

$74.20

-5.38%
Jul 8, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Builders FirstSource is a leading manufacturer and supplier of building materials, offering structural products like roof trusses, wall panels, windows, and millwork, along with professional installation and framing services to the U.S. homebuilding industry. As the largest supplier of building materials to the U.S. residential construction market, it holds a dominant position serving both large production builders and custom homebuilders. The stock is currently under pressure due to a cyclical downturn in housing starts and rising interest rates, which have compressed revenues and margins, while investors debate the timing of a recovery in new home construction and the company's ability to sustain profitability through cost controls.

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BLDR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $74.2
Average Target $74.2
High Target $85.33
Low Target $63.07

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Builders FirstSource's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $96.46 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$96.46

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$59 - $96

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Only 3 analysts cover BLDR, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on estimated EPS of $8.35 and a forward P/E of 14.4x, the implied target is approximately $120. From the current price of $84.69, this implies roughly +42% upside. The distribution of ratings from recent actions shows a mix: 2 Overweight/Buy, 1 Hold, and 0 Sell, indicating a moderately positive sentiment. The limited coverage (3 analysts) suggests BLDR is a mid-cap stock with less institutional attention, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient pricing. The estimated EPS range of $7.93 to $8.62 implies a target price range of $114 to $124, a relatively tight spread of about 8%, indicating reasonable conviction among the few covering analysts. The high target assumes a recovery in housing starts and margin expansion, while the low target factors in continued weakness in demand. Recent rating changes show a net positive tilt: RBC Capital upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform in March 2026, while Stephens & Co. downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight in January 2026, suggesting some divergence in views.

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BLDR Technical Analysis

BLDR is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price declining 33.8% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 19.1%. The current price of $84.69 sits at just 21.5% of its 52-week range (low $65.10, high $151.03), indicating the stock is trading near the bottom of its range. This positioning near the 52-week low suggests a deeply oversold condition, but also reflects persistent selling pressure and a lack of buying conviction. Short-term momentum has improved, with the stock gaining 12.4% over the past month and 7.0% over the past three months, diverging from the negative one-year trend. This recent bounce could signal a potential short-term reversal or mean reversion, but the relative strength versus the S&P 500 remains negative over three months (-6.5%), suggesting the rally is still fragile. The stock's beta of 1.42 indicates it is 42% more volatile than the market, amplifying both downside and upside moves. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $65.10, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $151.03. A break above $90 (recent high) would signal near-term strength, while a drop below $65 would likely trigger further selling. The wide range between support and resistance reflects high uncertainty and potential for large swings.

Beta

1.42

1.42x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-55.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$65-$151

Price range past year

Annual Return

-41.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodBLDR ReturnS&P 500
1m+1.5%+0.8%
3m-12.9%+9.6%
6m-40.5%+7.4%
1y-41.7%+20.2%
ytd-29.1%+9.3%

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BLDR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has been declining, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $3.36 billion, down 12.1% year-over-year, and down from $3.66 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows deceleration: revenue peaked at $4.45 billion in Q2 2024 and has since fallen in each subsequent quarter. Segment data from the latest quarter shows Specialty Building Products & Services ($949M) and Windows, Doors & Millwork ($894M) as the largest categories, while Lumber & Lumber Sheet Goods ($773M) and Manufactured Products ($743M) also contribute. The revenue decline is driven by lower housing starts and commodity price deflation, pressuring the top line. Profitability has deteriorated sharply. Net income in Q4 2025 was just $31.5 million, down from $190.2 million in Q4 2024, a drop of 83%. Gross margin compressed to 29.8% from 32.3% a year ago, reflecting pricing pressure and mix shifts. Operating margin fell to 1.8% from 8.0%, indicating significant operating deleverage. The company remains profitable on a trailing basis (net margin 2.9%), but the trend is concerning. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.30 and current ratio of 1.86, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was $853 million, providing a cushion for debt service and share repurchases. However, ROE has fallen to 10.0% from higher levels, and the company has been actively repurchasing shares, spending $2.1 million in Q4 2025 and $414 million in Q3 2025, which supports EPS but adds financial risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.12%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.29%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$853284000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Lumber And Lumber Sheet Goods
Manufactured Products
Specialty Building Products And Services
Windows Doors And Millwork

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Valuation Analysis: Is BLDR Overvalued?

Since net income is positive (TTM net income of $435 million), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 26.3x, while the forward P/E is 14.4x, implying the market expects earnings to rebound significantly. The wide gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that current earnings are depressed and the market is pricing in a recovery. Compared to the construction materials industry average P/E of 22x (estimated), BLDR's trailing P/E of 26.3x represents a 20% premium, but the forward P/E of 14.4x is a 35% discount, indicating that the market expects earnings growth to outpace the sector. Historically, BLDR's trailing P/E has ranged from 2.3x (mid-2022) to 90x (Q4 2025), with the current 26.3x near the lower end of its five-year range, suggesting the stock is not expensive on a historical basis. However, the elevated trailing multiple reflects the recent earnings collapse, while the forward multiple implies a normalization. The P/S ratio of 0.75x is well below the industry average of 1.5x, further supporting a value-oriented case if revenues stabilize.

PE

26.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 2x~90x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple