CHRW

C. H. Robinson Worldwide

$146.92

-15.44%
Jul 30, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
C.H. Robinson Worldwide is a leading non-asset-based third-party logistics provider, primarily focused on domestic freight brokerage (truck and rail intermodal) and global air/ocean forwarding. As one of the largest logistics platforms in North America, it differentiates itself through its technology-enabled network and scale, serving a diverse customer base without owning transportation assets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a softening freight market, with recent headlines highlighting margin compression from competitive pricing and the potential structural threat from Amazon's entry into third-party logistics. Additionally, geopolitical disruptions and AI-driven market rotations are creating near-term uncertainty, while the company's ongoing digital transformation and cost initiatives are key debates for long-term positioning.

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CHRW 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $146.92
Average Target $146.92
High Target $168.96
Low Target $124.88

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on C. H. Robinson Worldwide's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $199.80 and implied upside of +36.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$199.80

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+36.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$91 - $237

Analyst target range

The stock is covered by 25 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 2.0 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $203.12, implying approximately 8.9% upside from the current price of $186.51. The distribution leans bullish, with recent upgrades from Jefferies (Hold to Buy) and Citigroup (Neutral to Buy), though Citigroup later downgraded to Neutral in June. The consensus reflects cautious optimism, balancing the company's market position against near-term headwinds. The target range spans from a low of $91.00 to a high of $235.00, indicating significant uncertainty. The high target of $235 assumes a return to growth and margin expansion, potentially driven by cost initiatives and market share gains. The low target of $91 implies a severe downturn, possibly from prolonged freight recession or competitive disruption. The wide spread suggests low conviction among analysts, with the recent downgrade from Citigroup and underweight rating from Morgan Stanley highlighting bearish risks. The recent institutional rating actions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades, reflecting divergent views on the stock's trajectory.

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Bulls vs Bears: CHRW Investment Factors

C.H. Robinson presents a mixed investment case. On the bull side, the stock has strong momentum, a healthy balance sheet, high ROE, and analyst consensus support. However, bears point to stagnant revenue, thin margins, elevated valuation, and emerging competitive threats from Amazon. The single most important tension is whether the company can reignite revenue growth and stabilize margins in a softening freight market. If it can, the current valuation may be justified; if not, the stock could face multiple compression. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the strong price trend and cash flow generation, but the risks are significant and warrant caution.

Bullish

  • Strong Long-Term Price Momentum: The stock has gained 80.77% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16.47% return. This indicates strong investor confidence and a sustained uptrend, with the current price at 76.5% of the 52-week range, suggesting room for further upside.
  • Healthy Balance Sheet and Cash Flow: C.H. Robinson has a current ratio of 1.53 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88, indicating moderate leverage and solid liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) of $857.7 million provides ample coverage for dividends and share repurchases, supporting shareholder returns.
  • High Return on Equity (ROE): The company's ROE of 31.8% is exceptionally strong, reflecting efficient capital utilization and a high-margin asset-light business model. This metric suggests the company generates substantial profits from its equity base, a key driver of long-term value creation.
  • Analyst Consensus Buy with Upside Potential: With 25 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is 'Buy' (mean 2.0/5), and the average target price of $203.12 implies approximately 8.9% upside from the current price of $186.51. Recent upgrades from Jefferies and Citigroup (prior to downgrade) indicate positive sentiment shifts.

Bearish

  • Stagnant Revenue Growth: Revenue in Q1 2026 was $4.013 billion, down 0.84% year-over-year, and has been relatively flat over the past year. This lack of growth is a key concern, as it suggests the company is struggling to gain traction in a competitive logistics environment.
  • Thin and Declining Gross Margins: Gross margin in Q1 2026 was 7.67%, down from 8.02% a year ago, and remains below the industry average for asset-light logistics firms. This margin compression reflects competitive pricing pressures and could limit profitability improvements.
  • Elevated Valuation Relative to History: The trailing P/E of 32.94x is above the 5-year median of around 20x, indicating the market is pricing in above-average expectations. The PEG ratio of 1.29x suggests the stock is reasonably valued relative to growth, but the growth rate itself is modest.
  • Structural Threat from Amazon's 3PL Entry: Recent news highlights Amazon's entry into third-party logistics, which could disrupt traditional brokers like C.H. Robinson. Amazon's scale and technology could pressure margins and market share, posing a long-term competitive risk.

CHRW Technical Analysis

The stock is in a strong long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +80.77%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +16.47%. The current price of $186.51 sits at 76.5% of its 52-week range ($96.89 to $210.33), indicating it is closer to the highs but not overextended. This positioning suggests bullish momentum remains intact, though the stock is not at peak levels, leaving room for further upside if the trend continues. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month gain of +5.20% and a 3-month gain of +1.90%, both positive but decelerating relative to the 1-year trend. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is +4.42%, indicating slight outperformance, but the 3-month relative strength is -1.60%, suggesting a loss of relative momentum. This divergence could signal a temporary consolidation or a shift in leadership, warranting caution for short-term traders. The 52-week high of $210.33 acts as key resistance; a breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend and potentially attract momentum buyers. Conversely, the 52-week low of $96.89 provides a distant support level, but more immediate support lies near the 200-day moving average (not provided). The stock's beta of 0.915 indicates slightly lower volatility than the market, making it a relatively defensive holding within the industrials sector. The recent sharp decline from $209.42 to $186.51 on July 24 suggests a potential pullback, and a break below $180 could test the 50-day moving average.

Beta

0.92

0.92x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-29.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$105-$210

Price range past year

Annual Return

+50.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCHRW ReturnS&P 500
1m-22.0%-0.7%
3m-17.1%+2.9%
6m-24.6%+7.2%
1y+50.5%+16.9%
ytd-10.3%+8.8%

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CHRW Fundamental Analysis

Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) was $4.013 billion, down 0.84% year-over-year, reflecting a deceleration from the prior quarter's $4.137 billion (Q4 2025) and a continued trend of stagnation after a period of decline. The revenue trajectory has been relatively flat over the past year, with Q1 2025 revenue at $4.047 billion, indicating a lack of growth momentum. The transportation segment (freight brokerage) remains the core driver, but the sourcing segment (produce) contributes a smaller portion. The lack of revenue growth is a key concern, as it suggests the company is struggling to gain traction in a competitive logistics environment. Net income for Q1 2026 was $147.2 million, up from $135.3 million in Q1 2025, representing a 8.8% increase. Gross margin improved to 7.67% from 8.02% a year ago, but remains thin and below the industry average for asset-light logistics firms. Operating margin was 4.38%, slightly higher than 4.37% in Q1 2025, indicating stable but low profitability. The net margin of 3.67% is modest, reflecting the company's cost structure and competitive pricing pressures. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a current ratio of 1.53 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88, indicating moderate leverage. Free cash flow (TTM) was $857.7 million, providing ample coverage for dividends and share repurchases. ROE is strong at 31.8%, driven by efficient capital use, while ROA is 10.1%. The company generates sufficient cash to fund operations and growth internally, reducing reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$4.0B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.8%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

7.7%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$857672000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Sourcing
Transportation Customer’s Freight

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Valuation Analysis: Is CHRW Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 32.94x, while the forward P/E is 25.05x, implying that the market expects earnings growth to justify the current price. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests an anticipated improvement in earnings, which aligns with analyst estimates for EPS growth. Compared to the industry average (not provided), the stock's P/E of 32.94x appears elevated relative to the broader market, but given its asset-light model and strong ROE, a premium may be warranted. The PEG ratio of 1.29x suggests the stock is reasonably valued relative to its growth rate, though the growth rate itself is modest. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 9x to 83x over the past five years. The current 32.94x is near the middle of this range, indicating it is not at extreme levels. However, it is above the 5-year median of around 20x, suggesting the market is pricing in above-average expectations. The P/B ratio of 10.47x is high, reflecting the company's intangible assets and brand value, but is consistent with its historical range. Overall, the valuation appears fair but not cheap, with the forward P/E suggesting moderate upside if earnings materialize.

PE

32.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 9x~35x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

23.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: C.H. Robinson's financial risks center on its stagnant revenue and thin margins. Revenue declined 0.84% YoY in Q1 2026, and gross margin fell to 7.67% from 8.02% a year ago, reflecting competitive pricing pressures. The company's net margin of 3.67% is modest, leaving little room for error. While the balance sheet is healthy (debt-to-equity 0.88), the lack of growth could lead to earnings disappointment if cost initiatives fail to offset margin compression. Free cash flow of $857.7 million provides a buffer, but continued revenue stagnation could pressure valuations.

Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's trailing P/E of 32.94x is above its 5-year median of ~20x, making it vulnerable to valuation compression if growth disappoints. The beta of 0.915 indicates slightly lower market correlation, but the stock is still sensitive to macro factors. The primary competitive threat is Amazon's entry into third-party logistics, which could disrupt the brokerage model. Additionally, geopolitical events (e.g., Middle East tensions) and AI-driven market rotations could lead to sector headwinds. The recent downgrade by Citigroup and underweight rating from Morgan Stanley highlight analyst skepticism.

Worst-Case Scenario: In a prolonged freight recession combined with Amazon's disruptive entry, C.H. Robinson could see revenue decline further and margins compress to historical lows. The analyst low target of $91.00 implies a potential downside of approximately 51% from the current price of $186.51. The 52-week low of $96.89 provides a reference point, suggesting a realistic worst-case loss of about 48%. This scenario would likely involve multiple quarters of earnings misses and dividend cuts, though the company's strong free cash flow provides some downside protection.