FedEx
FDX
$303.65
-0.73%
FedEx Corporation is the world's largest express package provider, operating an integrated air-ground network that spans express delivery, ground parcel, international forwarding, and document services through its Federal Express, FedEx Office, and FedEx Logistics businesses. Following the June 2026 spinoff of its less-than-truckload FedEx Freight division, the core Federal Express segment now represents more than 95% of total revenue, sharpening the company's identity as a pure-play global parcel and express operator competing directly with UPS, DHL, and a rising tide of Amazon logistics capabilities. The investor narrative has pivoted decisively around the freight spinoff as a value-unlocking event that delivered a massive cash infusion and refocused management on higher-margin express operations, while the company simultaneously pursues a FedEx-led $9 billion buyout of Polish parcel firm InPost to build a European automated locker network. Offsetting this optimism is intensifying competitive anxiety: Amazon's aggressive entry into third-party logistics has triggered sector-wide selloffs, and UPS's strategic exit from low-margin Amazon volume has reshaped the competitive landscape in ways that could pressure FedEx's pricing power and volume growth.…
FDX
FedEx
$303.65
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FDX Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold, with a bias toward accumulating on weakness for patient investors. The core thesis is that FedEx's 12.54% revenue growth, 14.96x forward PE, and consensus buy rating with 13.8% upside to the $355.10 average target provide a favorable risk/reward for long-term holders, but the near-term technical downtrend and Amazon competitive threat warrant caution until the stock stabilizes above the $305-$310 support zone. The analyst consensus recommendation mean of 1.82 and the absence of downgrades among the ten most recent institutional actions suggest the sell-side remains constructive, but the market is pricing in more bearish scenarios than analysts expect, creating potential for positive surprise if upcoming earnings demonstrate resilience.\n\nSupporting evidence for the Hold rating includes: first, the forward PE of 14.96x represents an 18% compression from the trailing PE of 18.25x, implying the market expects meaningful earnings growth toward the consensus EPS of $29.67. Second, revenue growth of 12.54% year-over-year is accelerating sequentially, with Q4 FY2026 revenue of $25.01 billion up from $22.24 billion in Q1 FY2026. Third, profitability is improving, with Q4 gross margin of 22.69% up from 21.35% in Q3 and net margin of 6.39% up from 4.40% in Q3. Fourth, free cash flow of $5.116 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis and a payout ratio of just 31.0% provide financial flexibility and income support. Fifth, the price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 9.06x is attractive on an absolute basis and suggests the market is not fully valuing the company's cash generation.\n\nThe biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: first, Amazon's 3PL expansion eroding FedEx's pricing power and volume growth more severely than expected, which could drive revenue growth below 10% and compress margins. Second, the InPost acquisition integration failing to deliver expected synergies or straining the balance sheet, with debt-to-equity already at 1.357. Third, a cyclical downturn in global trade volumes reducing express parcel demand, which would disproportionately impact a company with a beta of 1.364. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock stabilizes above $340 and revenue growth sustains above 12%, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 8% or if the stock breaks below the $290 support level. Relative to its history and peers, FDX appears undervalued on a forward PE basis but fairly valued on a PEG basis, suggesting the market is appropriately pricing the competitive risks while offering modest upside if execution remains strong.
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FDX 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking view is neutral with a medium confidence level, balancing FedEx's strong fundamental momentum against significant competitive and technical headwinds. The 12.54% revenue growth and improving margins from 4.07% to 6.39% over four quarters demonstrate operational execution, while the 14.96x forward PE and 9.06x price-to-FCF provide valuation support. However, the stock's 26.69 percentage point underperformance versus SPY over six months and the structural Amazon threat create near-term uncertainty that prevents a bullish stance. The base case (50% probability) targets $330-$380, aligned with the analyst average of $355.10, assuming revenue growth moderates to 10-12% and margins hold at 7-8%. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock stabilizes above $340 and Q1 FY2027 earnings show revenue growth above 12% with operating margin above 8.5%, or downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 8% or the stock breaks below the $290 support level.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FedEx's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $355.10 and implied upside of +16.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$355.10
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+16.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$160 - $479
Analyst target range
FedEx is covered by 26 analysts with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.82 on a scale where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 is a strong sell, indicating that the sell-side community remains firmly constructive on the stock. The average target price of $355.10 implies approximately 13.8% upside from the current price of $311.99, which is a meaningful but not spectacular return expectation that reflects both the company's strong fundamentals and the competitive uncertainties facing the logistics sector. The consensus skews bullish, with the majority of recent institutional ratings showing Buy or Overweight positions from major firms including Truist Securities, B of A Securities, UBS, Stifel, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Barclays, while only Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating and BMO Capital holds a Market Perform. The estimated EPS average of $29.67 for the coming fiscal year, with a range of $27.84 to $31.14, supports the bullish case and suggests analysts expect earnings to grow substantially from current levels. The target price range is extraordinarily wide, spanning from a low of $160.00 to a high of $479.00, a spread of $319 or roughly 200% of the low target, which signals significant disagreement among analysts about the company's trajectory. The high target of $479 implies roughly 53.5% upside and likely assumes successful integration of the InPost acquisition, sustained double-digit revenue growth, margin expansion toward historical peaks, and multiple re-rating as the market recognizes the value unlocked by the freight spinoff. The low target of $160 implies approximately 48.7% downside and likely prices in severe competitive erosion from Amazon's third-party logistics expansion, margin compression from pricing pressure, and a cyclical downturn in global trade volumes. The institutional ratings pattern shows a cluster of reaffirmations in late June 2026 following the freight spinoff, with no downgrades among the ten most recent actions, suggesting that analysts are holding steady on their ratings while awaiting clearer evidence on post-spinoff execution and the competitive response to Amazon. The wide target spread, combined with the stock trading 13.8% below the consensus average, indicates that the market is currently pricing in more bearish scenarios than the analyst community expects, creating potential for positive surprise if upcoming earnings demonstrate resilience.
Bulls vs Bears: FDX Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence, with the stock in a clear medium-term downtrend, underperforming SPY by 26.69 percentage points over six months, and facing a structural competitive threat from Amazon's 3PL expansion. However, the bull case rests on more durable fundamentals: 12.54% revenue growth, a forward PE of 14.96x, and a consensus buy rating with 13.8% upside to the average target. The single most important tension is whether the Amazon threat is a cyclical pricing headwind that FedEx can manage through its scale and network density, or a structural erosion of its competitive moat that justifies the low target of $160. If upcoming earnings demonstrate that FedEx can sustain double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion despite Amazon's entry, the stock could re-rate sharply toward the $355 average target; if volume and pricing deteriorate, the bear case could drive a retest of the 52-week low.
Bullish
- Revenue reaccelerating at 12.5% YoY: Q4 FY2026 revenue of $25.01 billion grew 12.54% year-over-year, accelerating from $22.22 billion in the year-ago quarter. The sequential climb from $22.24B to $23.47B to $24.00B to $25.01B demonstrates that the core express business is gaining volume and pricing traction despite competitive noise.
- Forward PE of 14.96x is deeply discounted: The forward PE of 14.96x sits well below the trailing PE of 18.25x and roughly 15-20% below quality logistics peers that trade in the low-to-mid 20s. With consensus EPS of $29.67 for the coming year, the market is pricing in substantial earnings expansion that isn't reflected in the current multiple.
- Analyst consensus buy with 13.8% upside: 26 analysts carry a consensus recommendation of 'buy' with a mean of 1.82 and an average target price of $355.10, implying 13.8% upside from $311.99. The high target of $479 implies 53.5% upside, and no downgrades appeared among the ten most recent institutional actions.
- Freight spinoff unlocked value and cash: The June 2026 spinoff of FedEx Freight delivered a massive cash infusion and refocused the company on higher-margin express operations, with Federal Express now representing more than 95% of revenue. This structural simplification supports margin expansion and a potential multiple re-rating as the market recognizes the pure-play parcel story.
Bearish
- Amazon 3PL entry is a structural threat: Amazon's aggressive entry into third-party logistics, with a $1.3 trillion TAM, triggered a sector-wide selloff and mirrors its AWS playbook of undercutting incumbents. This competitive overhang has driven FDX down 11.29% over six months and 26.69 percentage points of underperformance versus SPY over the same period.
- Stock in medium-term downtrend: FDX trades at $311.99, just 9.7% above its 52-week low of $180.80 and 9.7% below its 52-week high of $345.37. The 1-month change of -4.52% and 3-month change of -7.78% show accelerating downside pressure, with the stock failing to hold the $340-$345 resistance zone.
- PEG ratio of 1.95 signals premium: The PEG ratio of 1.946 indicates the stock trades at a premium to its growth rate, a cautionary signal for a company with cyclical freight exposure. This suggests that even with 12.54% revenue growth, the market is not convinced the growth is durable enough to justify a higher multiple.
- Extreme analyst target dispersion: The target price range spans from $160 to $479, a spread of $319 or roughly 200% of the low target, signaling significant disagreement about the company's trajectory. The low target implies 48.7% downside and prices in severe competitive erosion and margin compression.
FDX Technical Analysis
FedEx is in a medium-term downtrend that contrasts sharply with its strong longer-term performance, with the stock at $311.99 sitting just 9.7% above its 52-week low of $180.80 and 9.7% below its 52-week high of $345.37, placing it at roughly 90.3% of its 52-week range. Despite a positive 1-year price change of 36.35%, the stock has surrendered considerable ground from its April peak above $411, and the recent price action reflects a market that has shifted from rewarding the freight spinoff narrative to worrying about competitive threats. The current positioning near the lower quartile of the annual range suggests the stock is in a corrective phase rather than a sustained uptrend, and the failure to hold the $340-$345 resistance zone has emboldened sellers. Recent momentum is decidedly negative and deteriorating: the 1-month change of -4.52% and 3-month change of -7.78% show accelerating downside pressure, while the 6-month change of -11.29% confirms that the intermediate trend has been bearish since the spring. This creates a clear divergence from the 1-year gain of 36.35%, signaling that the stock has been in a distribution phase for most of 2026, and the relative strength figures reinforce the weakness — FDX has underperformed SPY by 3.46 percentage points over the past month and by a striking 26.69 percentage points over six months. With a beta of 1.364, the stock amplifies market moves by roughly 36%, meaning the recent SPY decline of 1.06% over one month translated into a much sharper drawdown for FDX, and position sizing should account for this elevated volatility. Key technical support rests at the 52-week low of $180.80, though the more immediate psychological floor is the $305-$310 zone that has held since late July; resistance is firmly established at the 52-week high of $345.37, and a breakout above that level would be required to signal a genuine trend reversal. A breakdown below $305 would open the door to a retest of the $290 area and potentially the 52-week low, while the maximum drawdown of -25.64% illustrates the severity of corrections this stock can experience, making disciplined stop-loss placement essential.
Beta
1.36
1.36x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-26.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$181-$345
Price range past year
Annual Return
+34.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FDX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.5% | -1.0% |
| 3m | -6.9% | +2.0% |
| 6m | -15.4% | +17.4% |
| 1y | +34.1% | +15.0% |
| ytd | +3.6% | +11.7% |
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FDX Fundamental Analysis
FedEx's revenue trajectory is reaccelerating impressively, with the most recent quarter (ending May 2026) delivering $25.01 billion in revenue and 12.54% year-over-year growth, a sharp acceleration from the $22.22 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential improvement: revenue climbed from $22.24 billion in Q1 FY2026 to $23.47 billion in Q2, $24.00 billion in Q3, and $25.01 billion in Q4, demonstrating that the core express business is gaining volume and pricing traction despite competitive pressures. The Federal Express segment dominates with $6.27 billion in reported segment revenue, while the newly spun-off FedEx Freight contributes only $55 million, confirming the company's transformation into a focused parcel operator. This accelerating growth is critical to the investment case because it suggests the spinoff has not disrupted operational execution and that the remaining business has sufficient scale and demand to drive mid-teens top-line expansion. Profitability is solid and improving, with Q4 net income of $1.598 billion translating to a net margin of 6.39%, up from 4.40% in Q3 and 4.07% in Q2, while gross margin expanded to 22.69% from 21.35% in the prior quarter. The company's gross margin of 21.77% and operating margin of 6.99% are respectable for the capital-intensive logistics industry, and the Q4 operating income of $2.089 billion represents an 8.35% operating margin, the highest in the trailing four quarters. The year-over-year comparison is also favorable: Q4 FY2026 net income of $1.598 billion versus $1.648 billion in Q4 FY2025 shows slight compression, but the full-year trend of rising margins from Q1 through Q4 FY2026 indicates that cost discipline and yield management are working. The balance sheet carries moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.357 and a current ratio of 1.475, providing adequate short-term liquidity while maintaining the capital structure typical of an asset-heavy logistics operator. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis stands at $5.116 billion, and the most recent quarter generated $1.791 billion in FCF from $3.265 billion in operating cash flow against $1.474 billion in capital expenditures, demonstrating the company's ability to fund its fleet and automation investments internally. Return on equity of 14.01% and return on assets of 5.01% indicate efficient capital deployment, while the interest coverage ratio of 14.92x provides a comfortable cushion against the $140 million in quarterly interest expense. The company returned $346 million to shareholders through dividends in Q4 alone, and with a payout ratio of just 31.0%, there is ample room to sustain and grow distributions without straining the balance sheet.
Quarterly Revenue
$25.0B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
22.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$5.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FDX Overvalued?
Because FedEx is solidly profitable with trailing net income of $1.598 billion in the most recent quarter and positive EPS of $0.055 on a trailing basis, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric; the trailing PE of 18.25x compares to a forward PE of 14.96x, and this 18% compression implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth over the next twelve months. The forward PE of 14.96x is notably low in absolute terms and reflects the analyst consensus EPS estimate of $29.67 for the coming year, which would represent substantial earnings expansion from current levels. The gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests that investors are pricing in a recovery in profitability as the post-spinoff cost structure and capital allocation strategy take hold. On relative valuation, FedEx trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.854x and an EV-to-sales ratio of 1.089x, both of which are modest for a company with $104.28 billion in estimated annual revenue, while the price-to-book ratio of 2.556x and EV-to-EBITDA of 9.93x suggest the stock is not expensive relative to its asset base or cash generation. The PEG ratio of 1.946 indicates that the stock is trading at a premium to its growth rate, which is a cautionary signal, though the dividend yield of 1.70% and payout ratio of 31.0% provide income support. Compared to broad industrials sector averages where quality logistics names often command PE multiples in the low-to-mid 20s, FedEx's trailing PE of 18.25x represents a discount of roughly 15-20%, which appears unjustified given its 12.54% revenue growth and dominant market position, though the Amazon competitive threat and cyclical freight exposure explain part of the discount. Historically, FedEx's PE ratio has ranged from a low of 6.35x in May 2025 to a high of 21.13x in May 2022, and the current 18.25x sits in the upper-middle portion of that band, suggesting the market is pricing in moderately optimistic expectations rather than deep pessimism. The PS ratio of 0.854x is near the low end of its historical range — the stock traded at PS ratios above 3.2x as recently as May 2026 on a different share count basis — but the spinoff of FedEx Freight fundamentally altered the revenue base, making historical PS comparisons less reliable. The price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 9.06x is attractive on an absolute basis and suggests that the market is not fully valuing the company's $5.12 billion in trailing free cash flow, which could provide a valuation floor if earnings growth materializes.
PE
18.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~15x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
FedEx carries moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.357 and a current ratio of 1.475, providing adequate short-term liquidity but leaving limited cushion if earnings decline. The company's net margin of 4.68% and operating margin of 6.99% are thin for a capital-intensive logistics operator, and the Q4 FY2026 net income of $1.598 billion actually declined slightly from $1.648 billion in Q4 FY2025 despite 12.54% revenue growth, indicating that cost inflation and integration expenses are pressuring profitability. The $9 billion InPost acquisition adds execution risk and balance sheet strain, and with a payout ratio of 31.0% and $140 million in quarterly interest expense, the company must continue generating strong free cash flow to service debt and fund the European expansion. Revenue concentration in the Federal Express segment, which now represents more than 95% of total revenue following the freight spinoff, means that any weakness in express parcel volumes or pricing has an outsized impact on consolidated results.\n\nMarket and competitive risks are intensifying, with Amazon's entry into third-party logistics representing a structural threat that has already triggered a sector-wide selloff and driven FDX down 11.29% over six months. UPS's strategic exit from low-margin Amazon volume reshapes the competitive landscape in ways that could pressure FedEx's pricing power, as UPS redirects capacity toward higher-margin segments where FedEx also competes. The stock's beta of 1.364 means it amplifies market moves by roughly 36%, and with the broader market showing signs of volatility, FDX is vulnerable to outsized drawdowns. Valuation compression risk is real: the trailing PE of 18.25x sits in the upper-middle portion of its historical range of 6.35x to 21.13x, and the PEG ratio of 1.946 suggests the market is already pricing in optimistic growth expectations. If revenue growth decelerates or margins compress, the multiple could contract toward the historical low end, particularly given the cyclical freight exposure and global trade sensitivity.\n\nThe worst-case scenario would involve a combination of Amazon capturing significant 3PL market share, UPS successfully defending its higher-margin segments, and a cyclical downturn in global trade volumes that reduces express parcel demand. In this scenario, FedEx could see revenue growth stall, margins compress toward the 4.07% net margin seen in Q2 FY2026, and the stock could retest its 52-week low of $180.80, representing a 42% decline from the current price of $311.99. The analyst low target of $160 implies approximately 48.7% downside and likely prices in this severe competitive erosion scenario. Even a moderate adverse outcome, such as a breakdown below the $305-$310 support zone, could open the door to a retest of the $290 area and potentially the 52-week low, with the maximum drawdown of -25.64% illustrating the severity of corrections this stock can experience. Investors could lose 25-42% from current levels in a realistic adverse scenario, making disciplined stop-loss placement and position sizing essential.
FAQ
The most severe risk is competitive disruption from Amazon's 3PL expansion, which has a $1.3 trillion TAM and has already triggered a sector-wide selloff, driving FDX down 11.29% over six months. The second major risk is financial and operational, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.357, thin net margin of 4.68%, and the $9 billion InPost acquisition adding integration risk and balance sheet strain. The third risk is macro and cyclical, as the 1.364 beta amplifies market moves by 36%, and a global trade downturn could reduce express parcel demand and pricing power. The fourth risk is valuation compression, as the PEG ratio of 1.946 and the trailing PE of 18.25x in the upper-middle of its historical range leave limited room for multiple expansion if growth disappoints. Ranked by severity, the Amazon competitive threat is the most significant, followed by valuation compression, financial leverage, and macro sensitivity.
The 12-month forecast presents three scenarios: a base case with 50% probability targeting $330-$380, aligned with the analyst average of $355.10, assuming revenue growth moderates to 10-12% and operating margins hold at 7-8%. A bull case with 25% probability targets $400-$479, assuming successful InPost integration, sustained double-digit growth, and multiple re-rating toward 20x PE. A bear case with 25% probability targets $160-$250, assuming Amazon erodes volumes, global trade weakens, and margins compress toward 5-6%. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption being that FedEx can maintain revenue growth above 10% despite competitive pressures, supported by the sequential revenue climb from $22.24 billion to $25.01 billion over four quarters. The wide analyst target range of $160 to $479 reflects significant disagreement, but the consensus buy rating and 13.8% upside to the average target suggest the risk/reward is skewed positively for patient investors.
FDX appears undervalued on a forward earnings basis but fairly valued on a growth-adjusted basis. The forward PE of 14.96x represents an 18% discount to the trailing PE of 18.25x and roughly a 15-20% discount to quality logistics peers trading in the low-to-mid 20s, suggesting the market is pricing in moderate pessimism. However, the PEG ratio of 1.946 indicates the stock trades at a premium to its growth rate, and the trailing PE of 18.25x sits in the upper-middle portion of its historical range of 6.35x to 21.13x. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.854x and EV-to-EBITDA of 9.93x are modest for a company with $104.28 billion in estimated annual revenue, and the price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 9.06x suggests the market is not fully valuing the $5.12 billion in trailing free cash flow. The valuation implies the market expects earnings growth toward the consensus EPS of $29.67 but is discounting the stock for competitive and cyclical risks, creating potential for re-rating if execution remains strong.
From a risk/reward perspective, FDX offers a moderately attractive proposition for patient investors, with 13.8% upside to the analyst average target of $355.10 and a forward PE of 14.96x that is below the broader industrials sector. The biggest downside risk is the Amazon 3PL threat, which could drive the stock toward the analyst low target of $160, representing 48.7% downside, though the base case (50% probability) targets $330-$380. The stock's 1.364 beta and 26.69 percentage point underperformance versus SPY over six months suggest near-term volatility will persist, making it a better buy on weakness toward the $305-$310 support zone than at current levels. For long-term investors with a 2-3 year horizon, the 12.54% revenue growth, $5.116 billion in trailing free cash flow, and 31.0% payout ratio provide a solid foundation, but position sizing should account for the elevated volatility and competitive uncertainty.
FDX is better suited for long-term investment with a minimum holding period of 2-3 years, given its 1.364 beta, cyclical freight exposure, and the structural uncertainty surrounding Amazon's 3PL expansion. The company's 1.70% dividend yield and 31.0% payout ratio provide income support for long-term holders, while the 12.54% revenue growth and improving margins from 4.07% to 6.39% over four quarters suggest the fundamental trajectory is positive. Short-term trading is risky given the stock's 26.69 percentage point underperformance versus SPY over six months and the 25.64% maximum drawdown, which could trigger stop-losses for traders with tight risk parameters. The stock's earnings visibility is moderate, with consensus EPS of $29.67 for the coming year and a range of $27.84 to $31.14, providing some predictability but not enough to justify short-term positioning. A long-term investor with a 3-year horizon could reasonably expect the stock to recover toward the $355 average target and potentially the $479 high target if the competitive landscape stabilizes.