EXPD

Expeditors International

$160.61

-2.08%
Jun 17, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is a non-asset-based third-party logistics (3PL) provider primarily focused on international freight forwarding, offering services such as air and ocean freight consolidation, customs brokerage, warehousing, and supply chain management. The company is a well-established, asset-light player in the integrated freight and logistics industry, distinguished by its global network of over 200 offices and sophisticated IT systems. The current investor narrative is dominated by concerns over revenue declines and margin pressure, as highlighted by recent quarterly results showing a 3.3% year-over-year revenue drop and a significant 33% plunge in ocean freight revenue, raising questions about its near-term growth trajectory in a challenging freight market.

People also watch

FedEx

FedEx

FDX

Analysis
United Parcel Service

United Parcel Service

UPS

Analysis
J. B. Hunt

J. B. Hunt

JBHT

Analysis
XPO, Inc.

XPO, Inc.

XPO

Analysis
C. H. Robinson Worldwide

C. H. Robinson Worldwide

CHRW

Analysis

EXPD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $160.61
Average Target $160.61
High Target $184.7015
Low Target $136.51850000000002

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Expeditors International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $208.79 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$208.79

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$128 - $209

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for EXPD is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a less-followed name among large institutions. The consensus sentiment appears neutral to cautious, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings which include several 'Hold', 'Neutral', and 'Underweight' calls, with only one 'Buy' upgrade noted from UBS in November 2025. The average target price data is not explicitly provided in the dataset, preventing a calculation of implied upside or downside from the current price. The target price range is also not available in the provided data. The wide dispersion in recent analyst actions—from 'Underweight' (Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Barclays) to a recent 'Buy' (UBS)—signals high uncertainty and debate regarding the stock's near-term prospects. This lack of a clear bullish consensus and limited coverage can contribute to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the investment thesis is less defined by Wall Street research and more driven by company-specific execution and macro freight cycle dynamics.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

Bulls vs Bears: EXPD Investment Factors

The investment debate for EXPD centers on the tension between its high-quality, defensive characteristics and its exposure to a cyclical downturn. The bull case is anchored by an exceptional balance sheet (D/E 0.24), superior profitability (ROE 34.5%), and strong recent price momentum (+45.4% 1-year). The bear case highlights concrete operational deterioration: a 3.3% revenue decline, a 33% plunge in ocean freight revenue, and contracting gross margins. Currently, the bearish evidence on near-term fundamentals is stronger, as the premium valuation (P/E ~24.9x) appears vulnerable without a reacceleration of growth. The single most important factor is the resolution of the ocean freight cycle; a sustained recovery would validate the bull thesis of resilience, while a prolonged slump would expose the stock's valuation as stretched.

Bullish

  • Exceptional Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: EXPD maintains a fortress balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.24 and a current ratio of 1.81, providing immense financial flexibility. This is complemented by robust TTM free cash flow of $953.4 million, enabling consistent shareholder returns and strategic investments without financial stress.
  • Superior Profitability & Returns: The company generates a stellar Return on Equity of 34.5%, far exceeding typical industry benchmarks, driven by its asset-light, high-margin business model. Despite recent pressure, the Q4 2025 net margin of 7.04% demonstrates the firm's ability to remain profitable through a freight cycle downturn.
  • Strong Technical Momentum & Outperformance: EXPD has significantly outperformed the market, with a 1-year price change of +45.4% versus SPY's +22.86%, and a 3-month return of +16.89% versus SPY's +12.0%. The stock is trading at 99% of its 52-week high ($168.52), indicating strong investor conviction and positive momentum.
  • Resilient Airfreight & Customs Segments: While Ocean Freight revenue plunged 33% YoY in Q4 2025, the Airfreight Services ($1.11B) and Customs Brokerage & Other Services ($1.14B) segments showed relative resilience. This diversification mitigates the full impact of the ocean freight slump and provides a stable revenue base.

Bearish

  • Revenue Decline & Ocean Freight Slump: Q4 2025 revenue declined 3.3% year-over-year to $2.86B, with the core Ocean Freight segment collapsing by 33%. This indicates severe cyclical headwinds and raises significant concerns about the company's near-term growth trajectory in a challenging global freight market.
  • Margin Compression & Profitability Pressure: Gross margin contracted to 14.47% in Q4 2025, down from 16.05% in Q3 2025, signaling underlying operational pressure. This margin squeeze, amidst declining revenue, challenges the company's ability to maintain its historically high profitability and return metrics.
  • Premium Valuation with Slowing Growth: EXPD trades at a trailing P/E of 24.87x and a forward P/E of 24.42x, a premium valuation that is difficult to justify amid negative revenue growth. The PEG ratio of 6.5 suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth that current fundamentals do not support.
  • Limited Analyst Conviction & Coverage: With only 5 analysts covering the stock and recent ratings including 'Underweight' and 'Hold' calls, there is a lack of strong Wall Street conviction. This limited coverage and mixed sentiment can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, especially during downturns.

EXPD Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a robust 45.4% 1-year price change. As of the latest close at $166.62, the price is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 99% of the way towards its 52-week high of $168.52, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. The stock's beta of 1.047 suggests its volatility is very closely aligned with the broader market, offering neither significant dampening nor amplification of market moves. Recent momentum shows a notable acceleration, with the stock gaining 6.94% over the past month and 16.89% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the SPY's returns of -0.08% and 12.0% over the same periods, respectively. This strong short-term performance, which outpaces the already solid 1-year trend, suggests positive sentiment is building, though the proximity to the 52-week high warrants caution for a near-term consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) data is not provided, but the price action indicates strong buying pressure. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $168.52 and support at the 52-week low of $110.48. A decisive breakout above $168.52 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a failure at this level may lead to a retracement. The stock's beta near 1.0 implies its price movements are largely in sync with the overall market, making broader economic and sector trends key drivers of future volatility and direction.

Beta

1.05

1.05x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-15.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$110-$169

Price range past year

Annual Return

+41.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEXPD ReturnS&P 500
1m+2.4%+0.3%
3m+9.1%+12.3%
6m+5.1%+8.9%
1y+41.1%+24.0%
ytd+5.8%+8.7%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

EXPD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has turned negative, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2.86 billion representing a 3.3% year-over-year decline, continuing a trend of deceleration from the stronger growth seen in prior quarters. The revenue segment breakdown reveals the primary drag: Ocean Freight revenue fell sharply to $611 million, while Airfreight Services ($1.11 billion) and Customs Brokerage & Other Services ($1.14 billion) showed more resilience. This indicates the company is facing significant headwinds in the cyclical ocean freight market, which is pressuring top-line performance. Profitability remains intact but is under pressure. The company reported a net income of $201.2 million for Q4 2025, translating to a net margin of 7.04%. However, gross margin contracted to 14.47% in Q4, down from 16.05% in the prior quarter (Q3 2025), signaling compression in underlying operational profitability. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $953.4 million is robust, but the quarterly trend shows variability, with Q4 FCF at $270.3 million. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, characterized by minimal leverage and high liquidity. The debt-to-equity ratio is a conservative 0.24, and the current ratio is a healthy 1.81, indicating ample short-term financial flexibility. The company's return on equity of 34.5% is impressive, driven by its asset-light model and efficient capital structure. The substantial TTM free cash flow generation, coupled with a low debt load, provides significant capacity for shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, and to weather cyclical downturns without financial stress.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.14%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$953400000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Airfreight Services
Customs Brokerage And Other Services
Ocean Freight And Ocean Services

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is EXPD Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. EXPD trades at a trailing P/E of 24.87x and a forward P/E of 24.42x, based on estimated EPS. The minimal gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests the market anticipates relatively stable, but not accelerating, earnings growth in the near term. Compared to industry averages, EXPD's valuation appears elevated. Its trailing P/E of 24.87x and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 1.83x are not directly benchmarked against provided sector averages, but the high P/E typically commands a premium for quality and stability. The company's premium valuation must be justified by its superior returns (ROE of 34.5%), strong balance sheet (D/E of 0.24), and consistent free cash flow generation, which are hallmarks of a high-quality operator in a cyclical industry. Historically, the stock's current trailing P/E of 24.87x is at the higher end of its own range observed over recent quarters, which has fluctuated between approximately 16x and 30x. Trading near the top of its historical valuation band suggests the market is pricing in a relatively optimistic outlook, potentially reflecting its defensive qualities and capital return potential, but also leaves limited room for multiple expansion unless earnings growth re-accelerates.

PE

24.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 9x~29x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: EXPD faces clear financial risks from its declining top line and margin pressure. Q4 2025 revenue fell 3.3% YoY, with the critical Ocean Freight segment plummeting 33%, directly impacting profitability as gross margin compressed from 16.05% to 14.47% quarter-over-quarter. While the balance sheet is strong, the company's earnings are highly sensitive to freight market cycles, and continued revenue deceleration could pressure its premium valuation multiples. The reliance on a rebound in global trade volumes to drive growth introduces significant earnings volatility risk.

Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a trailing P/E of 24.9x near the top of its historical range, EXPD is priced for stability and moderate growth. If the freight downturn persists or macro conditions worsen, this premium multiple is at high risk of contracting toward sector averages. Competitive risks are heightened as customers may seek lower-cost alternatives during economic softness, and the asset-light model, while a strength in downturns, offers limited pricing power in a saturated market. The stock's beta of 1.047 means it will move closely with the broader market, offering no defensive diversification.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a prolonged global recession leading to a severe, multi-year contraction in freight volumes. This would exacerbate the current ocean freight slump, trigger further gross margin erosion below 14%, and lead to consecutive earnings misses. Analyst sentiment, already mixed, would turn uniformly negative, driving multiple compression. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically retest its 52-week low of $110.48, representing a downside of approximately -34% from the current price of $166.62. A drawdown of this magnitude is plausible given the stock's historical sensitivity to freight cycles and its current elevated valuation.