J. B. Hunt
JBHT
$234.25
-1.08%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services is one of North America's largest surface transportation and logistics companies, operating a diversified portfolio spanning intermodal (48% of sales), dedicated contract carriage (27%), truck brokerage (12%), final-mile delivery (7%), and for-hire truckload (6%). Its distinct competitive identity rests on the intermodal franchise — an asset-heavy network of owned containers moved over Class I railroads — combined with an asset-light brokerage platform, giving it both scale economics and variable-cost flexibility that pure truckload peers lack. The current investor narrative centers on a sharp cyclical recovery: Q2 2026 revenue grew 19.4% year over year to $3.50 billion with EPS of $1.91, reversing several quarters of freight recession pressure, while management's cost discipline and intermodal volume gains have driven the stock up roughly 91% over the past year. Offsetting this enthusiasm is a structural overhang — Amazon's aggressive build-out of third-party logistics capacity, which analysts view as a long-term threat to traditional 3PL economics — alongside a recent three-month pullback that has cooled momentum and left the shares consolidating below their highs.…
JBHT
J. B. Hunt
$234.25
Investment Opinion: Should I buy JBHT Today?
Rating: Hold. JBHT's operating recovery is real — 19.4% revenue growth, 45% EPS growth, and $1.03 billion in free cash flow — but the stock already trades at 31.75x trailing PE and 26.74x forward PE, leaving only 12.9% upside to the $305.45 average analyst target. The 'buy' consensus (mean 2.08) and wide $182-$370 target range reflect genuine disagreement, making a neutral stance appropriate until valuation or momentum improves.
Supporting evidence: revenue grew 19.37% year over year in Q2 2026 to $3.495 billion; net margin expanded to 5.18% from 4.39%; trailing free cash flow is $1.032 billion with a 28.6% payout ratio; and the forward PE of 26.74x is below the trailing 31.75x, implying expected earnings growth. However, the PS ratio of 1.58x is near the low end of its historical range (which has run as high as 6.9x), while the PEG of 3.42 and EV/EBITDA of 13.20x show the market already pays up for recovery. Relative to freight peers in the mid-teens to low-20s PE, JBHT carries a 40-60% premium that requires sustained double-digit growth to justify.
Biggest risks: (1) Amazon's 3PL expansion could erode brokerage and dedicated economics, as reflected in the $182 low target; (2) a freight demand rollover would hit thin 4.99% net margins hard; (3) the 3-month relative strength of -9.58 versus SPY shows momentum already fading. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back toward $230-$240 (roughly 24x forward PE) or if intermodal volumes accelerate for two consecutive quarters. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if operating margin falls back below 6.5%. Verdict: fairly valued to slightly overvalued relative to history and peers, with the premium justified only by continued execution.
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JBHT 12-Month Price Forecast
JBHT's operating recovery is credible — 19.4% revenue growth, 45% EPS growth, and $1.03 billion in free cash flow — but the stock's 31.75x trailing PE and 3.42 PEG already discount much of the rebound. The 12.9% upside to the $305.45 average target is modest relative to the 33% downside to the $182 bear target, creating an asymmetric risk profile. Momentum has cooled, with 3-month relative strength of -9.58 versus SPY, suggesting the easy money has been made. I would upgrade to bullish if intermodal volumes accelerate for two consecutive quarters or if the stock pulls back toward $230-$240 (roughly 24x forward PE). I would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if Amazon 3PL announcements directly target JBHT's intermodal customers.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on J. B. Hunt's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $298.48 and implied upside of +27.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$298.48
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+27.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$182 - $370
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust with 22 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is "buy" with a recommendation mean of 2.08 (where lower is more bullish). The average price target is $305.45, implying +12.9% upside from the current $270.45, while the consensus estimated EPS of $14.54 and estimated revenue of $18.65 billion frame expectations for continued growth. Sentiment leans moderately bullish, but the distribution of recent ratings is mixed — Outperform/Overweight ratings from Bernstein, JP Morgan, Raymond James, and Susquehanna are offset by Neutral/Hold ratings from UBS, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Stifel, and Truist, with Morgan Stanley at Underweight.
The target range is unusually wide, from a low of $182.00 to a high of $370.00 — a spread of more than 100% of the current price, which signals significant disagreement about the durability of the freight recovery. The high target of $370 assumes multiple expansion and sustained double-digit revenue growth as intermodal volumes normalize; the low target of $182 prices in margin compression and competitive share loss, likely reflecting Amazon 3PL fears. Notably, Bernstein upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform on July 10, 2026, while Morgan Stanley moved to Underweight from Equal Weight on July 6 — a split that encapsulates the bull-bear debate. The wide dispersion and mixed recent actions suggest investors should expect elevated volatility around earnings and freight data prints, and that conviction on the name is far from uniform.
Bulls vs Bears: JBHT Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence: revenue growth of 19.4%, 45% EPS growth, $1.03 billion in free cash flow, and a 'buy' consensus with 12.9% upside are concrete and recent. The bear case rests more on valuation and a structural Amazon threat than on current operating deterioration. The single most important tension is whether the intermodal volume recovery can be sustained long enough to grow into a 31.75x PE multiple — if freight demand rolls over, the premium multiple compresses quickly, but if volumes normalize through 2027, the forward PE of 26.74x looks reasonable. The wide $182-$370 analyst range encapsulates this binary outcome.
Bullish
- Revenue growth re-accelerated to 19.4%: Q2 2026 revenue of $3.495 billion grew 19.37% year over year from $2.928 billion, a sharp inflection from Q4 2025's -1.6% decline. The sequential climb from Q1 2026's $3.056 billion confirms the freight recovery is broadening, not a one-quarter anomaly.
- Earnings power inflecting sharply: Q2 2026 EPS of $1.91 rose 45% from $1.32 a year earlier, while net income jumped to $181.0 million from $128.6 million. Operating margin expanded to 7.42% from 6.74%, showing the recovery is dropping through to the bottom line.
- Self-funded capital returns: Trailing free cash flow of $1.032 billion comfortably covers the $42.6 million quarterly dividend and $87.7 million of buybacks, with a payout ratio of just 28.6%. Interest coverage of 11.57x and debt-to-equity of 0.53 leave ample balance sheet capacity.
- Analyst consensus sees 12.9% upside: 22 analysts carry a 'buy' consensus (mean 2.08) with an average target of $305.45 versus the $270.45 current price. The high target of $370 implies 36.8% upside if intermodal volumes normalize and multiples expand.
Bearish
- Valuation prices in a flawless recovery: At 31.75x trailing PE and 26.74x forward PE, JBHT trades at a 40-60% premium to typical freight peers in the mid-teens to low-20s. The PEG ratio of 3.42 and EV/EBITDA of 13.20x leave little margin of safety if growth stalls.
- Amazon 3PL build-out is structural threat: Amazon's entry into third-party logistics, framed as a $1.3 trillion TAM opportunity, mirrors its AWS playbook and directly threatens traditional 3PL economics. This overhang likely explains Morgan Stanley's Underweight rating and the $182 low target.
- Momentum has decisively stalled: The 1-month change is -2.00% and 3-month change is -6.54%, with relative strength versus SPY at -9.58 over three months. The stock has failed to reclaim its $299.76 high, and max drawdown of -15.87% signals distribution.
- Thin margins amplify cyclical risk: Net margin of 4.99% and operating margin of 7.21% mean small revenue misses or cost inflation can erase a large share of earnings. The current ratio of 0.83 also leaves limited working-capital buffer.
JBHT Technical Analysis
JBHT is in a powerful primary uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +91.20% versus the S&P 500's +16.22%, delivering relative strength of +74.98 percentage points over that span. At $270.45, the stock sits at roughly 82% of its 52-week range (low $130.12, high $299.76), positioning it in the upper quartile of its annual band — a zone that historically signals institutional accumulation but also leaves less margin for error if momentum stalls. The 6-month gain of +35.06% and YTD advance of +37.44% confirm the trend is durable rather than a brief spike, though the failure to reclaim the $299.76 high suggests overhead supply is building near the $300 psychological level.
Short-term momentum has clearly decelerated: the 1-month change is -2.00% and the 3-month change is -6.54%, both diverging sharply from the +91.20% 1-year trend. Relative strength versus SPY is negative over both windows (-0.94 over 1 month, -9.58 over 3 months), meaning JBHT is underperforming a market that itself was roughly flat to modestly lower — a classic mean-reversion signature after a parabolic run. The stock's max drawdown of -15.87% from its peak reflects this cooling, and with a short ratio of 3.37 days-to-cover, bearish positioning is moderate rather than aggressive, suggesting the pullback is profit-taking rather than conviction shorting.
Key technical levels are well defined: support rests at the $256-$260 zone (recent September lows and the August consolidation base), with deeper support at the 52-week low of $130.12, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $299.76. A breakout above $300 on volume would confirm trend resumption and likely open a move toward analyst targets in the $305-$370 range; a breakdown below $256 would signal a deeper correction and put the 200-day trend at risk. With a beta of 1.289, JBHT is roughly 29% more volatile than the market, meaning position sizing should be scaled down accordingly — a 10% market move implies roughly a 13% move in JBHT, which materially affects stop-loss placement and portfolio risk budgeting.
Beta
1.29
1.29x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-21.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$130-$300
Price range past year
Annual Return
+73.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | JBHT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -14.0% | -1.0% |
| 3m | -13.6% | +2.0% |
| 6m | +17.2% | +17.4% |
| 1y | +73.4% | +15.0% |
| ytd | +19.0% | +11.7% |
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JBHT Fundamental Analysis
JBHT's revenue trajectory has inflected decisively upward: Q2 2026 revenue of $3.495 billion grew 19.37% year over year versus Q2 2025's $2.928 billion, and rose sequentially from Q1 2026's $3.056 billion. The multi-quarter arc shows acceleration — Q1 2026 revenue of $3.056 billion was up 4.6% from Q1 2025's $2.921 billion, while Q4 2025's $3.097 billion was actually down 1.6% from Q4 2024's $3.146 billion — meaning the growth re-acceleration is a 2026 phenomenon driven by intermodal volume recovery and yield improvement. Within the segment mix, service revenue excluding fuel surcharge was $2.648 billion versus $408 million in fuel surcharge, confirming that core pricing and volume, not fuel pass-through, is powering the top line.
Profitability is solid and improving: Q2 2026 net income was $181.0 million on a 5.18% net margin, up from $128.6 million and a 4.39% net margin in Q2 2025, while operating income rose to $259.5 million (7.42% operating margin) from $197.3 million (6.74%). Gross margin in the reported quarter was 76.53% (though this reflects a reclassification versus the ~13% gross margin reported in prior periods, so the operating margin of 7.21% and net margin of 4.99% from the valuation dataset are the cleaner comparators). The trend across the last four quarters — net income of $141.6M, $181.0M, $181.1M, and $170.8M — shows earnings have stabilized at a higher plateau, with the Q2 2026 EPS of $1.91 versus $1.32 a year earlier representing 45% growth.
Balance sheet and cash flow metrics are healthy but not fortress-like: debt-to-equity is 0.53, the current ratio is 0.83 (below 1.0, reflecting the working-capital-light nature of the business), and ROE is 16.78% with ROA of 7.38%. Trailing free cash flow is $1.032 billion, and Q1 2026 alone generated $242.8 million in FCF on $353.0 million of operating cash flow against $110.3 million of capex — a capex-coverage ratio of 3.20x that comfortably funds the $42.6 million quarterly dividend and $87.7 million of buybacks. The company is self-funding, with interest coverage of 11.57x and a dividend payout ratio of just 28.6%, leaving ample capacity for continued capital returns without external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.5B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
76.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is JBHT Overvalued?
Because JBHT is solidly profitable — Q2 2026 net income of $181.0 million and trailing EPS of $1.91 — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 31.75x versus a forward PE of 26.74x, a roughly 16% compression that implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth over the next twelve months, consistent with the consensus EPS estimate of $14.54 (which, notably, appears to reflect a different share-count or adjusted basis than the reported quarterly EPS). The forward multiple below the trailing multiple signals that analysts expect the current earnings recovery to continue rather than fade.
Relative to the broader Industrials sector, JBHT's 31.75x trailing PE and 1.58x PS ratio sit at a premium to typical freight and logistics peers, which often trade in the mid-teens to low-20s PE range — implying a premium of roughly 40-60% depending on the peer set. That premium is partially justified by JBHT's superior ROE of 16.78%, its intermodal moat, and its 19.4% revenue growth, but the PEG ratio of 3.42 and EV/EBITDA of 13.20x suggest the market is already pricing in a lot of recovery. The 5.33x price-to-book and 11.31x price-to-cash-flow multiples further confirm this is not a cheap stock on any metric.
Historically, JBHT's PE has ranged from roughly 15x (Q3 2022) to 39.6x (Q1 2024), with the current 31.75x sitting in the upper third of that band but below the 2024 peak. The PS ratio of 1.58x, however, is near the low end of its historical range (which has run as high as 6.9x), reflecting the revenue base expansion — a more constructive signal. Net-net, the valuation embeds optimistic assumptions: investors are paying a premium multiple for a cyclical recovery that must be sustained to justify the price, leaving limited margin of safety if freight demand softens.
PE
31.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~36x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on thin margins and cyclical earnings leverage. Net margin of 4.99% and operating margin of 7.21% mean a modest revenue shortfall or cost inflation can disproportionately hit EPS — Q2 2026 net income of $181.0 million sits on $3.495 billion of revenue, so a 2% revenue miss with fixed costs could cut earnings by double digits. The current ratio of 0.83 is below 1.0, reflecting a working-capital-light model that offers little buffer if freight demand weakens. Debt-to-equity of 0.53 and interest coverage of 11.57x are manageable, but the asset-heavy intermodal fleet requires sustained capex — $110.3 million in Q1 2026 alone — which could pressure free cash flow if volumes decline.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and the Amazon 3PL threat. At 31.75x trailing PE and 5.33x price-to-book, JBHT trades at a 40-60% premium to freight peers, so any growth disappointment could trigger multiple contraction toward the mid-20s or lower. Amazon's aggressive build-out of third-party logistics capacity, described as a $1.3 trillion TAM opportunity, directly threatens the brokerage and dedicated segments and mirrors AWS's disruption of IT services. With a beta of 1.289, JBHT is roughly 29% more volatile than the market, amplifying macro-driven selloffs. The mixed analyst actions — Bernstein's July 10 upgrade versus Morgan Stanley's July 6 downgrade to Underweight — show conviction is far from uniform, raising the risk of sharp re-ratings around earnings.
A worst-case scenario would combine a freight recession with Amazon share gains and multiple compression. If intermodal volumes stall, pricing weakens, and the market re-rates JBHT toward its historical low PE of roughly 15x, the stock could fall toward the analyst low target of $182 — about 33% below the current $270.45. A deeper downturn could push shares toward the 52-week low of $130.12, a 52% decline, though that would require a severe earnings collapse. The realistic downside in an adverse scenario is -33% to the $182 bear target, with tail risk to -52% at the 52-week low.
FAQ
Ranked by severity: (1) Competitive — Amazon's 3PL build-out, framed as a $1.3 trillion TAM opportunity, directly threatens brokerage and dedicated economics and likely explains the $182 low target; (2) Valuation — at 31.75x trailing PE, any growth disappointment could compress the multiple toward the historical low of 15x, implying 50%+ downside; (3) Financial — thin 4.99% net margins mean a 2% revenue miss could cut earnings by double digits, and the 0.83 current ratio leaves little buffer; (4) Macro — a beta of 1.289 amplifies market selloffs, and freight demand is highly cyclical. The 3-month relative strength of -9.58 versus SPY shows momentum is already fading, which could accelerate if earnings disappoint.
The base case (50% probability) targets $290-$320, aligned with the $305.45 average analyst target, assuming mid-teens revenue growth and stable 7.2% operating margins. The bull case (25%) targets $340-$370 if intermodal volumes normalize and margins expand toward 8%, while the bear case (25%) targets $182-$230 if freight demand rolls over and Amazon takes share. The most likely outcome is the base case, which requires revenue growth of 15-19% and no major competitive share loss. The wide $182-$370 analyst range reflects genuine uncertainty about recovery durability, so investors should expect elevated volatility around earnings and freight data prints.
JBHT trades at 31.75x trailing PE and 26.74x forward PE, a 40-60% premium to freight peers typically in the mid-teens to low-20s. The PEG ratio of 3.42 and EV/EBITDA of 13.20x confirm the market is paying up for recovery, while the 5.33x price-to-book and 11.31x price-to-cash-flow multiples show no metric is cheap. However, the PS ratio of 1.58x is near the low end of its historical range (which reached 6.9x), reflecting the expanded revenue base. The forward PE below trailing implies expected earnings growth, but the premium requires sustained double-digit growth to justify. Net-net, the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued relative to history and peers, with the market pricing in a successful recovery.
JBHT offers 12.9% upside to the $305.45 average analyst target, supported by 19.4% revenue growth and 45% EPS growth in Q2 2026, but the 31.75x trailing PE leaves limited margin of safety. The downside to the $182 bear target is 33%, creating an unfavorable risk/reward at current levels. The 'buy' consensus (mean 2.08) is offset by a wide $182-$370 target range and mixed recent actions, including Morgan Stanley's Underweight. It is a reasonable buy for investors with a 2-3 year horizon who believe the freight recovery is durable, but better entry points likely exist near $230-$240. For short-term traders, the fading 3-month momentum (-6.54%) argues for patience.
JBHT is best suited for long-term holding of at least 2-3 years, given the cyclical nature of freight recovery and the need for intermodal volumes to normalize. The beta of 1.289 and max drawdown of -15.87% mean short-term trading requires tight risk management, and the 0.90% dividend yield is too low to provide meaningful income support. Earnings visibility is moderate — Q2 2026's 19.4% revenue growth is encouraging, but the Q4 2025 decline of 1.6% shows the cycle can turn quickly. A minimum holding period of 2 years allows time for the recovery to play out and for the premium multiple to be justified by earnings growth. Short-term traders should wait for a breakout above $300 or a pullback to $256-$260 support before entering.