Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
COKE
$189.10
+0.80%
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. is the largest Coca-Cola bottler in the United States, responsible for the distribution, marketing, and manufacturing of nonalcoholic beverages, including sparkling and still products such as Coca-Cola, bottled water, teas, coffees, and sports drinks. As a key player in the beverage industry, it operates primarily in the southeastern U.S. and holds a dominant position in its territory, benefiting from a strong brand portfolio and an extensive distribution network. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust revenue growth and margin expansion, driven by effective pricing strategies and operational efficiencies, while also navigating challenges such as input cost inflation and changing consumer preferences. Recent financial results have highlighted strong performance, with revenue growth of 16.9% year-over-year in the latest quarter, fueling optimism about the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.…
COKE
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
$189.10
Investment Opinion: Should I buy COKE Today?
Based on the analysis, COKE is rated a Hold. The company has strong fundamentals, with revenue growth of 16.9% YoY and operating margin expansion, but the valuation is not compelling enough to warrant a Buy. The lack of analyst coverage and the negative equity position add uncertainty. The average analyst target is not available, but the stock's current price is near the midpoint of its 52-week range, suggesting fair value.
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COKE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting a balance between strong operational performance and financial concerns. The company's revenue growth and margin expansion are positive, but the negative equity and high PEG ratio limit upside. The forward PE of 4.9x is unusually low, suggesting either the market expects a significant earnings jump or there is a data anomaly. If the company can sustain its growth and improve its balance sheet, the stock could be re-rated higher. However, any negative surprise in earnings or a deterioration in financial health would likely lead to a downgrade. The stance would be upgraded to bullish if the company reports another quarter of 15%+ revenue growth and shows progress in reducing debt, or downgraded to bearish if growth falls below 5% or the equity position worsens.
Wall Street consensus
Insufficient analyst coverage available, as only 1 analyst covers the stock, and the recommendation is 'none'. This limited coverage is typical for a small-cap stock like COKE, which may lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The average revenue estimate is $7.23 billion for the next fiscal year, but no EPS estimates are available. The lack of analyst coverage means investors must rely on their own analysis, and the stock may be underfollowed, presenting potential opportunities for those who do their own research. The single analyst's lack of a recommendation suggests uncertainty, and the wide bid-ask spread may be a concern for traders.
Bulls vs Bears: COKE Investment Factors
The bull case is supported by strong revenue growth, improving margins, and robust cash flow, while the bear case highlights financial leverage, valuation concerns, and limited analyst coverage. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the company's operational performance and cash generation, but the negative equity and high PEG ratio are significant concerns. The most important tension is whether the company can sustain its growth and margin expansion to justify its valuation, or if the negative equity and competitive pressures will lead to a de-rating. The stock's low beta and defensive nature provide a cushion, but the recent volatility suggests that sentiment can shift quickly.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 16.9% YoY to $1.85B, driven by pricing and volume. This is a significant acceleration from the prior year's growth rate, indicating strong demand for the company's beverage portfolio.
- Improving Operating Efficiency: Operating margin expanded to 12.9% in Q1 2026 from 12.0% in Q1 2025, reflecting cost controls and operational leverage. This improvement is despite ongoing input cost inflation, showcasing management's ability to protect profitability.
- Robust Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow reached $142.2M in Q1 2026 and $662.1M on a TTM basis, providing ample capacity for debt reduction, share buybacks, and dividend growth. This cash generation supports the company's capital allocation strategy.
- Undervalued on Sales Basis: The PS ratio is 1.56x, which is low for a beverage company, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in the company's revenue scale. This could indicate upside potential if the market re-rates the stock.
Bearish
- Negative Equity Raises Red Flags: The debt-to-equity ratio is -4.06, indicating negative shareholders' equity, likely due to aggressive buybacks and dividends. This financial structure could limit financial flexibility and increase risk if earnings decline.
- High PEG Ratio Suggests Overvaluation: The PEG ratio of 1.87 indicates the stock is trading at a premium to its growth rate, which may deter value investors. This suggests that the market has high expectations that may not be met.
- Limited Analyst Coverage: Only one analyst covers the stock, with no recommendation, leading to less efficient price discovery and potentially higher volatility. This lack of coverage may also indicate lower institutional interest.
- Recent Price Volatility: The stock experienced a sharp decline from $215.40 on May 5 to $164.98 on May 13, a 23% drop, before recovering. This volatility, though partly due to market conditions, highlights the stock's sensitivity to sentiment.
COKE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +64.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.4% over the same period. Currently trading at $189.11, the stock is near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 86% of the high of $219.65, indicating robust momentum and investor confidence. This positioning suggests the stock is in a bullish phase, though it may be susceptible to profit-taking after such a substantial run. The 52-week low of $110.60 provides a clear support level, and the stock's beta of 0.55 indicates lower volatility than the market, making it a relatively stable investment.
Beta
0.55
0.55x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$111-$220
Price range past year
Annual Return
+60.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | COKE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.6% | +2.5% |
| 3m | +7.7% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +3.8% | +11.1% |
| 1y | +60.0% | +20.5% |
| ytd | +26.2% | +12.3% |
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COKE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing steadily, with the latest quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $1.85 billion, a 16.9% increase year-over-year, up from $1.58 billion in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by both volume and pricing, with the Nonalcoholic Beverage segment contributing $1.83 billion in revenue. The company has consistently grown revenue over the past several quarters, from $1.76 billion in Q3 2024 to $1.85 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory. Net income for Q1 2026 was $111.6 million, with a net margin of 6.0%, up from 6.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting improved profitability. Gross margin has remained stable around 39-40%, while operating margin improved to 12.9% in Q1 2026 from 12.0% in Q1 2025, indicating operational efficiency gains. The company is profitable and generating strong cash flows, with free cash flow of $142.2 million in Q1 2026 and $662.1 million on a trailing twelve-month basis. However, the balance sheet shows a negative equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -4.06, which is unusual and may be due to share buybacks and dividends, but the current ratio of 1.26 indicates adequate liquidity. The company's ROE is negative at -77.1%, but this is a result of the negative equity, not necessarily poor performance, as the company is generating solid returns on assets (ROA of 12.5%).
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+16.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
39.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$662108000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is COKE Overvalued?
Given that the company is profitable, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 19.8x, while the forward PE is 4.9x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the near term. The forward PE is based on estimated EPS of $38.94, which seems optimistic given current EPS of $1.97 per quarter, but it may reflect anticipated growth from new initiatives. The PS ratio is 1.56x, which is relatively low for a beverage company, suggesting the stock may be undervalued on a sales basis. Compared to the industry average, the stock trades at a discount on a PE basis, as the sector average PE is around 22x, making COKE's 19.8x a 10% discount. This discount is justified by the company's lower growth prospects compared to some peers, but its strong cash flow generation and stable margins support the valuation. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from 8x to 28x over the past few years, with the current 19.8x sitting near the middle of that range, suggesting it is fairly valued relative to its own history. The PEG ratio of 1.87 indicates that the stock is trading at a premium to its growth rate, which may be a concern for value investors.
PE
19.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 8x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a negative equity position (debt-to-equity of -4.06), which could limit the company's ability to weather downturns or pursue growth opportunities. The high payout ratio (15.2%) and share buybacks have contributed to this, and while the current ratio of 1.26 indicates adequate liquidity, the negative equity is a structural concern. Additionally, the company's net margin of 6.0% in Q1 2026 is relatively thin, leaving limited room for cost increases or pricing pressure to erode profitability. The reliance on continued revenue growth to support the valuation is a key risk, as any deceleration could lead to multiple compression.