KDP

Keurig Dr Pepper

$31.70

+0.70%
Jun 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a leading beverage conglomerate operating in the non-alcoholic beverage industry, with a dual focus on single-serve coffee systems under the Keurig and Green Mountain brands and a diverse portfolio of ready-to-drink beverages including Dr Pepper, Snapple, and Canada Dry. The company is a significant player in the North American market, distinct for its integrated model of proprietary brewers and consumable pods alongside a strong brand portfolio in flavored sparkling soft drinks. The current investor narrative is dominated by its transformative $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's, which was declared unconditional in March 2026, and the subsequent planned corporate split into separate North American refreshment and global coffee entities, creating significant strategic uncertainty and debate around integration risks and long-term value creation.

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KDP 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $31.7
Average Target $31.7
High Target $36.455
Low Target $26.945

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Keurig Dr Pepper's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $41.21 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$41.21

9 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

9

covering this stock

Price Range

$25 - $41

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (22%)
Hold
4 (44%)
Sell
3 (33%)

Analyst coverage is moderate with 9 firms providing estimates, and the institutional rating actions show a mixed but generally stable sentiment, with recent moves including a downgrade from Jefferies from Buy to Hold in December 2025 but reaffirmations of Overweight/Equal Weight ratings from major banks like Wells Fargo and Barclays. The consensus recommendation leans neutral-to-bullish, though specific Buy/Hold/Sell distribution percentages are not provided in the data. The average EPS estimate for the coming period is $2.66, with a range from $2.42 to $3.11, indicating some divergence in expectations about the company's near-term profitability. The target price range itself is not explicitly provided in the data, limiting the ability to calculate implied upside; however, the presence of multiple 'Overweight' and 'Buy' ratings alongside the EPS estimate range suggests analysts see a path for the stock to re-rate higher if the JDE Peet's integration proves successful and the split unlocks value. The wide EPS estimate range (a 28% spread from low to high) signals meaningful uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's forward earnings power, which is understandable given the transformative corporate actions underway.

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KDP Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained downtrend over the past year, evidenced by a 1-year price change of -8.35%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 27.04% gain. Currently trading at $30.06, it sits approximately 42% above its 52-week low of $24.88 but 16% below its 52-week high of $35.94, positioning it in the lower-mid range of its annual band, suggesting it has recovered from deep lows but remains under pressure relative to its peak. Recent momentum shows a modest recovery, with a 3-month gain of 6.41% and a 1-month gain of 3.94%, indicating a potential stabilization or short-term bounce, though this positive short-term action diverges from the longer-term negative trend and may represent a relief rally within a broader bearish structure. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $35.94 and support at the 52-week low of $24.88; a sustained breakout above $35.94 would signal a major trend reversal, while a breakdown below $24.88 could trigger a new leg down. The stock's beta of 0.416 indicates it is approximately 58% less volatile than the broader market, which is typical for a defensive consumer staples name but also suggests muted potential for explosive moves relative to market swings.

Beta

0.42

0.42x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-28.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$25-$36

Price range past year

Annual Return

-3.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodKDP ReturnS&P 500
1m+10.4%-1.9%
3m+17.7%+8.9%
6m+7.4%+6.4%
1y-3.8%+20.3%
ytd+14.3%+6.4%

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KDP Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been solid but decelerating from a high base; Q4 2025 revenue was $4.499 billion, representing a 10.54% year-over-year increase, a strong rebound from the prior year's Q4 which included a net loss, though sequential quarterly revenue from Q1 to Q4 2025 shows some volatility ($3.635B, $4.163B, $4.306B, $4.499B). Segment data reveals the LRB (Liquid Refreshment Beverages) segment is the dominant driver with $3.027 billion in revenue, followed by K-Cup Pods at $1.104 billion, indicating the core beverage business is the primary growth engine. The company is profitable with a net income of $353 million in Q4 2025, translating to a net margin of 7.85%, and maintains a healthy gross margin of 53.77%, though this is down slightly from the 54.30% gross margin reported in the valuation data, indicating potential modest cost pressure. Profitability has improved dramatically year-over-year from a Q4 2024 net loss of -$144 million, showcasing a significant turnaround in earnings power. The balance sheet is leveraged but manageable, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63, and the company generates robust cash flow, evidenced by trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.505 billion and an operating cash flow of $712 million in Q4 2025 alone, providing ample internal funding for operations and its ambitious acquisition. The current ratio of 0.64 suggests a relatively tight liquidity position, which is a point to monitor given the large pending JDE Peet's transaction.

Quarterly Revenue

$4.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.10%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.53%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Appliances
K-Cup Pods
LRB
Other Products

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Valuation Analysis: Is KDP Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 18.3x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 11.9x, indicating the market expects a substantial increase in earnings over the next twelve months, likely factoring in contributions from the JDE Peet's acquisition and ongoing margin improvements. Compared to sector averages, KDP's trailing PE of 18.3x is below the typical Consumer Defensive sector average which often ranges in the low-to-mid 20s, suggesting the stock trades at a discount, though a precise industry average from the provided data is not available for a quantified spread. This discount may reflect investor concerns over execution risk from the large acquisition and the complexity of the impending corporate split. Historically, the stock's own PE ratio has fluctuated significantly, with data showing it traded as high as 75.96x (during a loss-making quarter) and as low as 13.09x; the current 18.3x is towards the lower end of its recent historical range excluding anomaly quarters, suggesting valuation is not stretched and may offer a margin of safety if the growth and integration plans materialize.

PE

18.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -76x~70x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple