CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc.

$83.37

+7.10%
Jun 15, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Circle Internet Group, Inc. is a financial technology firm operating at the intersection of digital currencies and public blockchains, providing a full-stack platform for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company is a leading player in the digital asset infrastructure space, best known as the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, positioning it as a critical enabler within the crypto ecosystem. The current investor narrative is dominated by extreme volatility driven by regulatory developments, competitive threats, and its dependence on the success of USDC, with recent news highlighting both significant institutional backing for its new Arc blockchain and sharp sell-offs due to fears of new competition and potential stablecoin yield restrictions.

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CRCL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $83.37
Average Target $83.37
High Target $95.8755
Low Target $70.8645

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Circle Internet Group, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $108.38 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$108.38

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$67 - $108

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Analyst coverage is limited with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a newer or more niche stock with less institutional research scrutiny, which can contribute to higher volatility. The consensus focuses on forward estimates, with an average EPS forecast of $3.84 on average revenue of $7.79 billion for the coming period, though no explicit price targets or Buy/Hold/Sell distribution is provided in the data. The institutional ratings data shows a mix of recent actions, including upgrades from Hold to Buy by Clear Street and maintained Buy/Outperform ratings from firms like Canaccord Genuity, Baird, and JP Morgan, alongside Neutral ratings from Mizuho; this pattern suggests a generally bullish but cautious analyst sentiment, with the wide dispersion in views (from Neutral to Outperform) signaling high uncertainty around the company's regulatory and competitive outlook.

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CRCL Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 26.94% over the past year and currently trading at just 26.0% of its 52-week range ($77.84 vs. a 52-week high of $298.99 and low of $49.9), indicating it is deeply oversold and far from recent highs, which suggests a value opportunity but also significant fundamental distress. Recent momentum is severely negative, with the stock down 38.50% over the past month and 32.54% over the past three months, a sharp acceleration of the longer-term downtrend that signals intense selling pressure and a lack of near-term catalysts for recovery. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $49.9, while resistance is at the recent breakdown level near the 52-week high; a break below support would signal a continuation of the bear trend, while the stock's extreme volatility is evidenced by its massive 80.93% max drawdown, indicating it carries substantially higher risk than the broader market.

Beta

Max Drawdown

-80.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$50-$299

Price range past year

Annual Return

-37.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCRCL ReturnS&P 500
1m-26.9%+2.1%
3m-37.0%+12.5%
6m+5.3%+12.4%
1y-37.6%+26.4%
ytd-0.1%+10.7%

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CRCL Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is highly volatile but showed a strong year-over-year increase of 76.92% in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) to $770.23 million, though this follows a period of inconsistent performance including a significant revenue decline in Q2 2025; the multi-quarter trend is erratic, with Q4 revenue up from $435.37 million a year prior but down sequentially from Q3's $739.76 million, indicating growth is not linear and subject to sharp swings. Profitability is equally inconsistent, with the company posting net income of $133.42 million and a gross margin of 19.04% in Q4 2025, a recovery from a massive net loss of -$482.1 million and a negative gross margin of -38.33% in Q2 2025; the trailing twelve-month metrics show a net margin of -2.53% and gross margin of 8.67%, highlighting that on an annual basis, the business remains unprofitable with compressed margins. The balance sheet appears healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011 and a current ratio of 1.03, while the company generated substantial trailing free cash flow of $542.13 million, providing internal funding for operations; however, the negative Return on Equity of -2.09% indicates inefficient use of shareholder capital despite the strong cash generation.

Quarterly Revenue

$770232000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.76%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.19%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$542129000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is CRCL Overvalued?

Given the company's negative trailing net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 6.99, while the forward PS ratio, based on estimated revenue of $7.79 billion, would be approximately 2.47, implying the market expects significant revenue growth to justify the current price. Compared to industry averages, data is not available for a direct sector comparison, but the stock's EV/Sales multiple of 6.65 provides another sales-based valuation point; without a peer benchmark, it's challenging to assess whether this multiple represents a premium or discount. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from 3.11 in Q1 2025 to 41.97 in Q3 2025; the current PS of 6.99 sits below the peak but above the lowest recent readings, suggesting the valuation has compressed from optimistic levels but may not yet be at a historical trough, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

PE

-276.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -10x~136x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

2322.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple