HOOD

Robinhood

$109.86

-1.88%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Robinhood Markets is a diversified financial services provider best known for its retail brokerage platform, which historically caters to a young, risk-seeking clientele trading heavily in options, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk assets. As a disruptive force in the brokerage industry, Robinhood has leveraged commission-free trading to amass 27 million active accounts and $322 billion in customer assets, positioning itself as a significant player in the U.S. brokerage market. The current investor narrative centers on Robinhood's successful diversification beyond crypto trading into subscription services, retirement accounts, and international expansion, with recent news highlighting AI-powered features and a 14% weekly surge in July 2026. However, debate persists around its high valuation and dependence on volatile cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by a 47% plunge in crypto trading revenue in Q1 2026.

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HOOD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $109.86
Average Target $109.86
High Target $126.34
Low Target $93.38

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Robinhood's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $142.82 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$142.82

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$88 - $143

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Robinhood is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish—all recent ratings from firms like Mizuho, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Goldman Sachs are Buy or Outperform. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $3.05, with a low of $2.68 and high of $3.75, while average revenue estimate is $7.331 billion. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the forward PE of 37.80x and average EPS of $3.05, the implied target is approximately $115.29, representing about 3% upside from the current price of $111.97. This suggests a neutral-to-bullish consensus with modest upside. The high EPS estimate of $3.75 implies a target of $141.75 (27% upside), assuming the same multiple, while the low estimate of $2.68 implies $101.30 (10% downside). The wide spread between high and low estimates (40% difference) indicates high uncertainty about future earnings, likely due to the volatile nature of transaction-based revenues. Recent institutional ratings show no downgrades, with firms like Barclays and Piper Sandler reiterating Overweight, signaling continued confidence in the company's strategy.

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HOOD Technical Analysis

The stock is in a recovery phase after a sharp downtrend, with the 1-year price change of +13.44% masking significant volatility. The current price of $111.97 sits at 52.8% of its 52-week range ($63.52 low to $153.86 high), indicating it is well off its highs but above the midpoint. This positioning suggests the stock is recovering from a deep drawdown but has not yet reclaimed its former highs, reflecting cautious optimism. The 1-month price change of +29.65% shows strong short-term momentum, while the 3-month change of +61.83% indicates accelerating recovery. However, the 6-month change of -2.86% reveals that the stock is still below its level from six months ago, highlighting a divergence between the recent rally and the longer-term downtrend. This could signal a potential trend reversal if the momentum sustains, but the stock remains below its 52-week high, suggesting resistance ahead. The 52-week low of $63.52 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $153.86 is a key resistance level. A breakout above $153.86 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $63.52 would indicate further downside. With a beta of 2.336, the stock is 133.6% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves significantly—a critical factor for risk management.

Beta

2.34

2.34x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-57.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$64-$154

Price range past year

Annual Return

+11.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHOOD ReturnS&P 500
1m+17.9%+1.0%
3m+38.9%+7.9%
6m-8.2%+8.5%
1y+11.7%+20.1%
ytd-4.6%+9.9%

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HOOD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has been growing strongly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.283 billion representing 26.53% YoY growth, accelerating from the 15% growth seen in Q1 2025 ($927 million). The multi-quarter trend shows revenue rising from $618 million in Q1 2024 to $1.283 billion in Q4 2025, driven by transaction-based revenues of $776 million and subscription revenues of $50 million. This growth trajectory supports the investment case, though the reliance on transaction-based revenues (60% of total) exposes the company to market volatility. Profitability has improved dramatically, with net income of $605 million in Q4 2025 versus $157 million in Q1 2024, and net margin expanding from 25.4% to 47.2%. Gross margin remains high at 83.3% (trailing twelve months), though it dipped to 75.7% in Q4 2025 from 92.2% in Q2 2025 due to mix shifts. The company is solidly profitable, with operating margin of 46.8% (TTM), well above industry averages for brokerages. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.68, indicating moderate leverage, but free cash flow (TTM) of $1.595 billion is positive, suggesting the company generates sufficient cash. However, quarterly free cash flow was negative in Q4 2025 (-$939 million) due to working capital swings, so cash flow can be lumpy. ROE of 20.6% is strong, reflecting efficient capital use, and the current ratio of 1.26 indicates adequate liquidity.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+26.5%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

75.7%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Gold Subscription Revenues
Other Revenue
Proxy Revenues
Transaction-Based Revenues

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Valuation Analysis: Is HOOD Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, we lead with the PE ratio. The trailing PE is 53.35x, while the forward PE is 37.80x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 41% over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests optimism about future profitability, but the current multiple is elevated. Compared to the industry average (Financial - Capital Markets), Robinhood's PE of 53.35x is significantly higher than the sector median of roughly 15-20x, representing a premium of over 150%. This premium may be justified by Robinhood's superior growth (26% YoY revenue growth vs. industry average of ~5-10%) and expanding margins, but it leaves little room for error. Historically, Robinhood's trailing PE has ranged from negative (during loss-making periods) to over 90x in late 2023. The current PE of 53.35x is near the middle of its historical range but well above the 8.99x seen in Q4 2024 when earnings spiked. This suggests the market is pricing in continued strong earnings growth, but the stock is not at extreme valuation levels compared to its own history.

PE

53.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -26x~92x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

51.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple