Cirrus Logic
CRUS
$137.36
-6.25%
Cirrus Logic Inc is a fabless semiconductor supplier specializing in low-power, high-precision audio and mixed-signal components for smartphones, PCs, AR/VR headsets, wearables, and automotive systems. As a key supplier to Apple and other top-tier OEMs, it holds a dominant position in the audio codec and amplifier market, with a growing portfolio in haptics, camera controllers, and battery management. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to capitalize on the AI-driven smartphone upgrade cycle and content expansion in mixed-signal products, while concerns linger over its heavy reliance on Apple and the pace of diversification into new end markets.…
CRUS
Cirrus Logic
$137.36
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy CRUS Today?
Rating: Hold. The thesis is that Cirrus Logic is a well-managed, profitable semiconductor company with a strong balance sheet and attractive valuation, but its heavy reliance on Apple and decelerating growth limit near-term upside. The consensus analyst rating is 2 Buy and 1 Equal Weight, with an average target of ~$150.60, implying essentially no upside from the current price of $150.36.
Supporting Evidence: The trailing P/E of 17.7x is a 20% discount to the industry average of 22x. Revenue grew 4.5% YoY in the latest quarter, with net margins expanding to 24.2%. Free cash flow of $614.5 million provides a robust 8.4% FCF yield. The PEG ratio of 0.59 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate. However, the forward P/E of 15.9x is only slightly below the 3-year median of ~15x, indicating fair valuation.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are Apple concentration and revenue deceleration. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to $130 (forward P/E ~13.7x) or if revenue growth reaccelerates above 10%. It would downgrade to Sell if Apple announces a supplier change or if gross margins fall below 50%. Overall, CRUS appears fairly valued relative to its history and peers, with a slight undervaluation based on PEG ratio.
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CRUS 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Cirrus Logic's attractive valuation and strong cash flows provide a floor, but decelerating growth and Apple concentration cap upside. The stock is fairly priced for a steady, profitable company with limited catalysts. An upgrade to bullish would require evidence of reaccelerating revenue growth or a significant pullback to a more compelling entry point. A downgrade to bearish would follow any signs of Apple disengagement or margin erosion.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Cirrus Logic's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $178.57 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$178.57
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$110 - $179
Analyst target range
Only 3 analysts cover Cirrus Logic, indicating limited institutional attention typical for a mid-cap semiconductor firm. The consensus recommendation leans bullish, with 2 Buy ratings (Benchmark, Stifel) and 1 Equal Weight (Barclays), and no Sell ratings. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but based on the estimated EPS of $9.48 and a forward P/E of 15.9x, the implied target price is approximately $150.60, essentially in line with the current price of $150.36. This suggests limited upside from current levels based on consensus estimates. The high EPS estimate of $9.59 implies a target of ~$152.50, while the low estimate of $9.38 implies ~$149.10, giving a narrow range of about $3.40, reflecting high conviction among the few analysts. The narrow spread indicates that analysts have a relatively consistent view of the company's near-term earnings power. However, the lack of broader coverage means the stock may be less efficiently priced, and significant news or a catalyst could lead to sharp revaluations. Recent ratings actions show stability: Barclays has maintained Equal Weight since March 2026, while Benchmark and Stifel have reiterated Buy ratings, and Keybanc has an Overweight. The absence of downgrades suggests analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
Bulls vs Bears: CRUS Investment Factors
Cirrus Logic presents a mixed picture: strong profitability, robust cash flow, and a discounted valuation relative to peers are countered by heavy Apple dependence, decelerating growth, and weak near-term price momentum. The bull case rests on the company's ability to expand margins and diversify into HPMS, while the bear case centers on customer concentration and slowing top-line growth. The single most important tension is whether the AI-driven smartphone upgrade cycle will reaccelerate revenue growth or if the current deceleration signals a structural slowdown. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the attractive valuation and strong balance sheet, but the narrow analyst targets and recent momentum warrant caution.
Bullish
- Strong Profitability and Margins: Net margin of 24.2% in Q3 FY2026 is up from 20.9% a year ago, and operating margin expanded to 26.3%, demonstrating operating leverage. ROE of 19.5% and ROA of 11.9% confirm efficient capital use.
- Attractive Valuation vs. Peers: Trailing P/E of 17.7x is a 20% discount to the semiconductor industry average of 22x. Forward P/E of 15.9x and PEG ratio of 0.59 suggest undervaluation relative to growth prospects.
- Robust Free Cash Flow Generation: TTM free cash flow of $614.5 million yields an FCF yield of ~8.4%, providing ample liquidity for buybacks and investment. The company repurchased $67.7 million in stock in Q3 alone.
- Diversification into High-Growth HPMS: High-Performance Mixed Signal (HPMS) revenue reached $236.2 million in Q3, growing faster than Audio Products. This segment includes camera controllers and haptics, reducing reliance on audio.
Bearish
- Heavy Reliance on Apple: Roughly half of revenue comes from China, largely tied to Apple's iPhone. Any loss of share or order cuts could significantly impact revenue, as seen in past volatility.
- Decelerating Revenue Growth: YoY revenue growth slowed to 4.5% in Q3 FY2026 from 7.5% in Q2, and the trajectory from 7.5% to 4.5% raises concerns about peak cycle demand.
- Limited Analyst Coverage: Only 3 analysts cover CRUS, with an average target implying just 0.2% upside from $150.36. Low coverage can lead to inefficient pricing and sharp moves on news.
- Recent Price Momentum Weakness: The stock is down 4.8% in the past month and 6.0% in three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 8.8% and 17.1% respectively. This negative relative strength may persist.
CRUS Technical Analysis
Cirrus Logic is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 41.4% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20.6% gain. The current price of $150.36 sits at 67.5% of its 52-week range ($92.02–$180.42), indicating the stock is in the upper half of its range but not overextended, suggesting room for further upside if momentum continues. The 52-week high of $180.42 represents a key resistance level, while the low of $92.02 provides a long-term support floor. Short-term momentum has turned negative, with the stock declining 4.8% in the past month and 6.0% over the past three months, diverging sharply from the strong one-year trend. This pullback from the April peak of $174.17 to the current $150.36 represents a 13.7% correction, which could be a healthy consolidation within the broader uptrend or a warning of trend reversal. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 has been negative over both the 1-month (-8.8%) and 3-month (-17.1%) periods, confirming recent underperformance. The stock's beta of 1.163 indicates slightly higher volatility than the market, meaning it tends to amplify market moves by about 16%. The 52-week high of $180.42 is the immediate resistance; a breakout above that level would signal a resumption of the uptrend and could target new highs. Conversely, the 52-week low of $92.02 is the ultimate support, but nearer-term support lies around the $146 area (recent June lows). A breakdown below $146 could open the door to a test of the $130–$135 zone. The current pullback from the highs, combined with negative short-term momentum, suggests the stock is in a corrective phase, and traders should watch for a bounce off support or a decisive break above resistance for directional cues.
Beta
1.16
1.16x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$92-$180
Price range past year
Annual Return
+31.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CRUS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.3% | +1.4% |
| 3m | -12.9% | +7.4% |
| 6m | +11.4% | +8.6% |
| 1y | +31.9% | +20.3% |
| ytd | +14.8% | +10.3% |
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CRUS Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been on a solid growth trajectory, with the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended Dec 27, 2025) reporting $580.6 million, up 4.5% year-over-year from $555.7 million in the prior-year quarter. This marks a deceleration from the 7.5% YoY growth seen in Q2 FY2026, but the multi-quarter trend shows consistent expansion from $374.0 million in Q1 FY2025 to the current level. The Audio Products segment contributed $344.5 million and High-Performance Mixed Signal (HPMS) added $236.2 million, with HPMS growing faster as the company diversifies beyond audio into camera controllers and haptics. The growth trajectory supports the investment case for content expansion in smartphones and new product cycles, though reliance on a single large customer remains a risk. Profitability is robust, with net income of $140.3 million in Q3 FY2026, translating to a net margin of 24.2%, up from 20.9% in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin improved to 53.1% from 53.6% (slight compression), but operating margin expanded to 26.3% from 26.2%, reflecting operating leverage. The company has been consistently profitable over the past eight quarters, with net income ranging from $42.1 million to $140.3 million, and margins are healthy for a fabless semiconductor company, typically above industry averages. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.063, indicating minimal leverage. Free cash flow (TTM) stands at $614.5 million, providing ample liquidity for internal growth and share repurchases. The current ratio of 7.37 and cash at end of period of $778.1 million underscore a fortress balance sheet. Return on equity (ROE) of 19.5% and return on assets (ROA) of 11.9% demonstrate efficient capital allocation. The company generates substantial free cash flow, with a FCF yield of approximately 8.4% (based on market cap of $7.29B), which is attractive and supports ongoing buybacks (evidenced by $67.7 million in repurchases in Q3).
Quarterly Revenue
$580624000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
53.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$614544000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CRUS Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive ($140.3 million in the latest quarter), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 17.7x, while the forward P/E is 15.9x, based on estimated EPS of $9.48. The discount of the forward P/E to the trailing P/E implies the market expects earnings growth, which is consistent with the positive PEG ratio of 0.59. Compared to the semiconductor industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on industry data), Cirrus Logic trades at a 20% discount (17.7x vs. 22x). This discount is somewhat justified by the company's heavy customer concentration and slower top-line growth relative to some high-growth peers, but the strong margins, cash flow, and balance sheet argue that the discount may be excessive. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from about 8x to 69x over the past five years, with the current 17.7x near the lower end of that range. The median P/E over the last three years is roughly 15x, so the current multiple is slightly above the median but well below the peaks seen in 2021. This suggests the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history, and the market is pricing in a reasonable growth outlook without excessive optimism. The EV/EBITDA of 12.0x also appears reasonable for a semiconductor company with strong free cash flow generation.
PE
17.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -28x~69x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Cirrus Logic's heavy reliance on Apple (estimated >80% of revenue) is the primary financial risk; losing Apple as a customer or a significant order reduction could halve revenue. The company's debt-to-equity of 0.063 is negligible, but its cash position of $778.1 million provides a buffer. Revenue growth decelerated from 7.5% to 4.5% YoY in the latest quarter, indicating potential peak-cycle demand. Gross margin compression from 53.6% to 53.1% YoY, though slight, bears watching if input costs rise or product mix shifts unfavorably.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.163 implies 16% higher volatility than the market, making it sensitive to macro shocks. Trading at a 20% discount to the semiconductor industry average P/E of 22x, the valuation could compress further if growth disappoints. Competitive threats from larger players like Qualcomm and Broadcom in audio/mixed-signal could erode market share. Recent news highlights executive stock sales, which, while routine, may signal insider caution. The narrow analyst coverage (3 analysts) increases information asymmetry risk.
Worst-Case Scenario: A severe downturn could see Apple diversifying away from Cirrus Logic, coupled with a broad tech sell-off. In such a scenario, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $92.02, representing a 38.8% decline from the current price of $150.36. The historical max drawdown of -18.26% suggests even a moderate correction could push the stock to ~$122.80. An investor could lose up to 39% in the most adverse case.
FAQ
The primary risk is customer concentration: Apple accounts for an estimated >80% of revenue, and losing that business could devastate sales. Second, revenue growth is decelerating (4.5% YoY in Q3 FY2026, down from 7.5% in Q2), suggesting the smartphone cycle may be peaking. Third, the stock's beta of 1.163 makes it more volatile than the market, amplifying downturns. Fourth, limited analyst coverage (only 3 analysts) means the stock may react sharply to unexpected news. The most severe risk is a 38.8% decline to the 52-week low of $92.02 if Apple diversifies away from Cirrus.
The 12-month forecast is balanced: the base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading in a $145-$165 range, roughly in line with the current price of $150.36, assuming steady but slow growth. The bull case (25% probability) targets $170-$190, driven by an AI smartphone upgrade cycle and HPMS expansion. The bear case (25% probability) targets $100-$130, if Apple reduces orders or growth disappoints. The most likely scenario is the base case, with limited upside from current levels. The consensus analyst target of ~$150.60 supports this view.
CRUS appears undervalued relative to its semiconductor peers, with a trailing P/E of 17.7x versus the industry average of 22x, representing a 20% discount. The forward P/E of 15.9x and EV/EBITDA of 12.0x also suggest reasonable valuation. The PEG ratio of 0.59 implies the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth rate. Compared to its own history, the current P/E is near the lower end of its 5-year range (8x-69x) and slightly above the 3-year median of ~15x. Overall, the market is pricing in modest growth expectations, and the stock appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued.
CRUS is a reasonable buy for value-conscious investors given its trailing P/E of 17.7x, a 20% discount to the semiconductor industry average of 22x, and a PEG ratio of 0.59 indicating undervaluation relative to growth. The company generates strong free cash flow ($614.5 million TTM) and has a pristine balance sheet with minimal debt. However, the stock has limited near-term upside based on analyst targets (~$150.60, essentially flat from current levels) and faces risks from Apple concentration and decelerating revenue growth. It is a good buy for those willing to accept moderate growth and hold through volatility, but not for those seeking rapid capital appreciation.
CRUS is better suited for long-term investment given its strong fundamentals, consistent profitability, and attractive valuation. The stock's beta of 1.163 indicates moderate volatility, but its 41.4% one-year return shows potential for capital appreciation. The company does not pay a dividend, so total return comes from price appreciation. Short-term trading is risky due to recent negative momentum (down 4.8% in the past month) and narrow analyst targets. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out Apple-related cycles and allow HPMS diversification to materialize.