DPZ

Domino's Pizza

$329.67

+6.05%
Jul 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Domino's Pizza Inc. is the world's largest pizza chain, operating over 22,100 stores across more than 90 markets through a 99% franchised model, with revenue primarily generated from its vertically integrated supply chain (60% of revenue) and domestic stores (33%). As a dominant player in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry, Domino's distinct competitive advantage lies in its scale, supply chain efficiency, and digital ordering platform. The current investor narrative centers on a sharp stock decline driven by a surprise CEO transition, disappointing Q1 2026 sales and earnings, and broader consumer spending headwinds, despite Berkshire Hathaway's recent stake increase signaling long-term value.

People also watch

McDonald's

McDonald's

MCD

Analysis
Starbucks

Starbucks

SBUX

Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG

Analysis
Yum! Brands

Yum! Brands

YUM

Analysis
Restaurant Brands International

Restaurant Brands International

QSR

Analysis

DPZ 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $329.67
Average Target $329.67
High Target $379.12
Low Target $280.22

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Domino's Pizza's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $391.57 and implied upside of +18.8% versus the current price.

Average Target

$391.57

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+18.8%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$274 - $544

Analyst target range

Domino's is covered by 28 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 2.0 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $391.57, implying approximately 26% upside from the current price of $310.87. The distribution leans bullish, with 10 Buy ratings, 10 Outperform, and 8 Hold/Neutral, and no Sell ratings. The consensus reflects cautious optimism, acknowledging near-term headwinds but expecting a recovery. The target price range spans from a low of $274 to a high of $544, representing a wide spread of $270 (69% of the average target), indicating high uncertainty among analysts. The low target of $274 implies a 12% downside from current levels and suggests that some analysts see further deterioration in consumer spending or competitive pressures. The high target of $544 implies a 75% upside, likely assuming a successful CEO transition, margin expansion, and a rebound in sales growth. Recent ratings actions show stability, with firms like Evercore ISI, Deutsche Bank, and UBS maintaining Buy/Outperform ratings, while TD Cowen and Citigroup hold at Neutral. The wide target spread underscores the high uncertainty around the stock's near-term trajectory, but the consensus 'Buy' rating and average upside suggest that analysts view the current price as an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

Bulls vs Bears: DPZ Investment Factors

Domino's presents a classic value-versus-momentum tension. On the bull side, the forward P/E of 14.9x is deeply discounted versus both peers and history, free cash flow is robust, and analyst consensus sees 26% upside. On the bear side, revenue growth is decelerating, a surprise CEO change adds uncertainty, and the stock's technical trend is firmly negative. The single most important factor is whether the company can stabilize and reaccelerate same-store sales growth in the coming quarters. If it does, the valuation discount could close rapidly; if not, further downside toward the $274 low target is plausible. Currently, the bear case has more near-term evidence, but the valuation argument for long-term investors is compelling.

Bullish

  • Compelling forward valuation discount: Domino's forward P/E of 14.9x represents a 32% discount to the restaurant industry average of 22x, and is well below its 5-year historical range of 19x-39x. This suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism that may already be reflected in the stock.
  • Strong free cash flow generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $654.1 million, providing ample liquidity to service debt and fund operations. This cash generation supports the dividend (yield 1.65%) and buybacks, even amid a challenging operating environment.
  • Analyst consensus Buy with 26% upside: The average analyst target price is $391.57, implying 26% upside from the current $310.87. With 28 analysts covering and a mean recommendation of 2.0 (Buy), the Street sees value despite near-term headwinds.
  • Stable margins and efficient operations: Gross margin held steady at 40.4% in Q1 2026 versus 39.9% a year ago, while operating margin improved to 20.0% from 18.9%. Return on assets of 32.5% reflects highly efficient use of capital.

Bearish

  • Sharp revenue growth deceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew only 3.5% YoY, down from 4.4% in Q4 2025 and 6.2% in Q3 2024. This deceleration reflects weaker consumer spending and intense competition, with no clear catalyst for reacceleration.
  • Surprise CEO transition creates uncertainty: The unexpected CEO change in April 2026 triggered a sharp stock decline and a 52-week low of $282. Leadership transitions introduce execution risk and can disrupt strategic momentum, especially during a fragile demand period.
  • High leverage from negative equity: Debt-to-equity of -1.34 (negative equity due to aggressive buybacks) indicates high financial leverage. While cash flows cover debt service, any sustained earnings downturn could pressure the balance sheet.
  • Wide analyst target spread signals risk: Analyst targets range from $274 (12% downside) to $544 (75% upside), a spread of $270 or 69% of the average target. This extreme dispersion reflects deep uncertainty about the company's near-term trajectory.

DPZ Technical Analysis

Domino's is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price declining 33.2% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 20.9%. The current price of $310.87 sits at approximately 63% of its 52-week range (low $282, high $496), indicating it is trading near the lower end of its yearly range. This positioning near the 52-week low suggests the market is pricing in significant negative sentiment, but also raises the possibility of a value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize. Short-term momentum remains bearish, with the stock down 1.8% over the past month and 15.8% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 2.4% and 22.0% respectively on a relative strength basis. The 1-month decline of 1.8% is less severe than the 3-month drop of 15.8%, suggesting a potential deceleration in selling pressure, but the overall trend remains firmly negative. The stock's beta of 0.975 indicates volatility roughly in line with the market, meaning the decline is driven by company-specific factors rather than broad market moves. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $282, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $496. A breakdown below $282 would signal further downside risk, while a recovery above $496 would require a complete reversal of the current negative sentiment. The stock's 41.7% maximum drawdown over the period underscores the severity of the selloff.

Beta

0.97

0.97x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-41.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$282-$496

Price range past year

Annual Return

-29.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodDPZ ReturnS&P 500
1m+2.9%+0.1%
3m-11.4%+5.7%
6m-17.6%+8.5%
1y-29.1%+20.3%
ytd-22.5%+10.1%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

DPZ Fundamental Analysis

Domino's revenue has shown modest growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.151 billion, up 3.5% year-over-year from $1.112 billion in Q1 2025. However, the growth trajectory has decelerated from the 4.4% YoY growth seen in Q4 2025 and the 6.2% growth in Q3 2024, indicating a softening top-line trend. The supply chain segment ($699 million) and domestic stores ($371 million) are the primary revenue drivers, while international franchise revenue ($81 million) remains a smaller contributor. The deceleration reflects weaker consumer spending and intense competition, as highlighted in recent earnings reports. Profitability remains solid, with Q1 2026 net income of $139.8 million and a gross margin of 40.4%, which is stable compared to 39.9% in Q1 2025. Operating margin improved to 20.0% from 18.9% a year ago, driven by cost controls, while net margin held at 12.2%. The company is profitable with a trailing P/E of 23.8x, and margins are generally stable, though the operating margin is slightly below the 19.3% reported in Q4 2025. Domino's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -1.34 (negative equity due to share buybacks), which is typical for the company but indicates high leverage. Free cash flow for Q1 2026 was $146.9 million, and the trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $654.1 million, providing ample cash generation to service debt and fund operations. The current ratio of 1.65 suggests adequate liquidity, though the negative equity base warrants monitoring. Return on equity is negative (-15.4%) due to the negative equity, but return on assets of 32.5% is strong, reflecting efficient asset utilization.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.2B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+3.5%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

40.4%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$654085000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

International Franchise
Supply Chain
Domestic Stores

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is DPZ Overvalued?

Given Domino's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 23.8x, while the forward P/E is 14.9x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp recovery in earnings, which is a positive signal if realized. Compared to the restaurant industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), Domino's trailing P/E of 23.8x is at a slight 8% premium, while the forward P/E of 14.9x represents a 32% discount. This discount is justified by the current earnings headwinds but also reflects the market's expectation of a rebound. Historically, Domino's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 19x to 39x over the past five years. The current 23.8x is near the lower end of this range, suggesting the stock is trading at a valuation that has historically offered a favorable entry point. The P/S ratio of 2.9x is also below the 5-year average of around 12x, further indicating a compressed valuation. The PEG ratio of 4.6x suggests the stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, but the forward P/E discount to the industry implies that much of the pessimism is already priced in.

PE

23.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 19x~39x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

18.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: Domino's high financial leverage is a key concern, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -1.34 due to negative equity from share buybacks. While trailing free cash flow of $654.1 million provides coverage, any sustained decline in earnings could pressure debt service. Revenue growth has decelerated to 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026, and the company's reliance on a 99% franchised model means it is exposed to franchisee health. Operating margin improved to 20.0%, but this may be unsustainable if top-line weakness persists. The negative equity base also limits financial flexibility.

Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.975 indicates market-like volatility, but its 33.2% one-year decline versus the S&P 500's 20.9% gain shows company-specific headwinds. Valuation compression risk is real: the trailing P/E of 23.8x is near the low end of its 5-year range, but if earnings disappoint further, multiples could contract. Competition from other QSR chains and delivery aggregators is intense, and the recent Pizza Hut sale by Yum! Brands signals industry consolidation. Consumer spending weakness, exacerbated by $4 gas, poses a macro headwind even for value-oriented pizza chains.

Worst-Case Scenario: A perfect storm of continued sales deceleration, failed CEO transition, and further consumer pullback could drive the stock to the analyst low target of $274, representing a 12% decline from current levels. If the company also cuts guidance or suspends buybacks, the stock could test the 52-week low of $282 or below. In a severe recession scenario, the maximum drawdown of 41.7% from the 52-week high of $496 to the low of $282 could be revisited, implying a potential loss of 9.3% from the current price of $310.87 to $282.