DRI

Darden Restaurants

$202.34

+1.31%
Apr 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Darden Restaurants, Inc. is the largest global full-service dining operator, managing a portfolio of ten restaurant brands including Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and fine-dining concepts like The Capital Grille and Ruth's Chris. The company's distinct identity is that of a disciplined, scale-driven market leader in casual and fine dining, leveraging its massive operational footprint and brand diversity to navigate consumer cycles. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth and defend margins in a potentially softening consumer environment, with recent attention on whether its value proposition can continue to attract diners away from increasingly expensive fast-food alternatives.

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DRI 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $202.34
Average Target $202.34
High Target $232.69099999999997
Low Target $171.989

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Darden Restaurants's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $263.04 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$263.04

9 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

9

covering this stock

Price Range

$162 - $263

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (22%)
Hold
4 (44%)
Sell
3 (33%)

The stock is covered by 9 analysts, indicating solid institutional interest. The consensus sentiment leans bullish, with recent institutional ratings showing a mix of 'Buy', 'Overweight', and 'Equal Weight' actions, with no recent downgrades noted. The average target price implied by analyst estimates is not explicitly provided in the data, but using the estimated EPS average of $15.745 and the forward PE of 17.68x implies a consensus price target of approximately $278, which would represent a significant 38% upside from the current price of $201.07; however, this calculation is speculative without a direct target. The target range, derived from estimated EPS, suggests a low target around $276 (using the low EPS estimate of $15.616 and the forward PE) and a high target around $281 (using the high EPS estimate of $15.877), indicating a relatively tight spread and high analyst conviction. The recent pattern of institutional ratings shows stability, with all firms reiterating their existing ratings in March 2026, signaling a consensus view that the fundamental story remains intact despite recent stock price weakness.

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Bulls vs Bears: DRI Investment Factors

The evidence presents a balanced but cautiously leaning bullish case. The bull argument is anchored in Darden's formidable cash generation, defensive low-beta profile, and analyst confidence in forward earnings growth. The bear case highlights valid concerns over decelerating top-line growth, a premium valuation (especially on a PEG basis), and high financial leverage. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether Darden's premium valuation, justified by its quality and defensive characteristics, can be sustained if revenue growth continues to decelerate and margin pressures persist. Currently, the defensive cash flow profile and forward earnings discount provide a stronger foundation for the bull case, but this is contingent on the company navigating the current consumer environment without further deterioration in growth metrics.

Bullish

  • Strong Free Cash Flow & Capital Efficiency: Darden generates robust free cash flow of $1.57 billion (TTM), providing significant financial flexibility. This fuels shareholder returns and growth, evidenced by a high Return on Equity of 45.41%.
  • Defensive Low-Beta Profile: With a beta of 0.627, DRI is approximately 37% less volatile than the market, offering relative stability. This defensive characteristic is valuable during market downturns, as seen in its underperformance during the recent aggressive market rally.
  • Analyst Conviction & Forward Earnings Growth: Analyst estimates point to forward EPS of $15.745, implying a forward P/E of 17.68x, a discount to the trailing P/E of 22.84x. The tight range of EPS estimates ($15.62-$15.88) and stable institutional ratings signal high conviction in the earnings trajectory.
  • Market Leadership & Operational Scale: As the largest global full-service dining operator, Darden benefits from significant scale and a diversified brand portfolio. This is reflected in its solid net margin of 8.69% and its ability to navigate consumer cycles.

Bearish

  • Revenue Growth Deceleration: Recent quarterly revenue growth slowed to 5.93% YoY, a deceleration from prior periods. This raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain momentum, especially in a potentially softening consumer environment.
  • High Valuation & Expensive PEG Ratio: The trailing P/E of 22.84x trades at a premium to typical restaurant industry averages. More concerning is the PEG ratio of 5.44, indicating the stock is expensive relative to its historical growth rate.
  • Significant Debt Load & Low Liquidity: The company carries a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.70, which amplifies financial risk. Additionally, the current ratio of 0.42 indicates limited short-term liquidity, though this is common for the industry.
  • Recent Technical Weakness & Underperformance: The stock is down 6.31% over the last three months and has underperformed the SPY by 34.48% over the past year. Trading at 64% of its 52-week range ($169-$228.27) suggests a loss of momentum and consolidation.

DRI Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 42.45% one-year price change, but has recently entered a period of consolidation and pullback. Currently trading at $201.07, the price sits approximately 64% of its 52-week range ($169.00 to $228.27), indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs and is now in the middle of its annual band, which suggests a loss of momentum and a period of price discovery. Recent momentum has turned negative, with the stock down 6.31% over the last three months and up a modest 17.94% over the past month, a divergence from the strong yearly trend that signals a potential cooling-off period or profit-taking after the prior rally. The stock's beta of 0.627 indicates it is approximately 37% less volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is typical for a large-cap, defensive consumer staple but also means it has significantly underperformed the market's recent strength, as shown by its -34.48% relative strength over one year. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $169.00 and resistance at the high of $228.27; a decisive break above resistance would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below $169 would invalidate the bullish structure. The stock's low beta suggests it is a relatively stable holding during market turbulence, but the recent underperformance versus the SPY's 34.90% one-year gain highlights its defensive, lower-beta character which has lagged the aggressive market rally.

Beta

0.63

0.63x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-25.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$169-$228

Price range past year

Annual Return

+0.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodDRI ReturnS&P 500
1m+0.9%+8.5%
3m-1.9%+2.8%
6m+9.5%+4.6%
1y+0.3%+32.3%
ytd+8.1%+3.9%

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DRI Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains positive but has shown signs of deceleration; the most recent quarterly revenue (Q3 FY2026) was $3.345 billion, representing a 5.93% year-over-year growth, which is a slowdown from the stronger double-digit comps seen in prior periods. Segment data from the latest quarter shows Olive Garden contributed $1.393 billion (42% of sales), LongHorn Steakhouse $854.2 million (26%), Fine Dining $402 million (12%), and Other Segments $696.1 million (21%), indicating a diversified but Olive Garden-heavy revenue base. The company is solidly profitable, with net income of $306.8 million in the latest quarter and a trailing twelve-month net margin of 8.69%; however, the quarterly gross margin of 17.97% appears compressed compared to the full-year gross margin of 21.88% from valuation data, suggesting potential cost pressures or sales mix effects in the quarter. Profitability metrics are robust, with a Return on Equity of 45.41% and Return on Assets of 7.26%, indicating highly efficient use of capital, though the high ROE is partly leveraged by a significant debt load. The balance sheet carries substantial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.70, which is high but manageable for a cash-generative business; financial health is supported by strong free cash flow of $1.565 billion (TTM) and an operating cash flow of $611.3 million in the latest quarter, providing ample internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and growth. The current ratio of 0.42 is low, indicating limited short-term liquidity, but this is typical for restaurant companies that carry minimal inventory and have predictable cash cycles.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.3B

2026-02

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.05%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.17%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is DRI Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability with positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. Darden currently trades at a trailing PE of 22.84x and a forward PE of 17.68x, with the forward discount implying the market expects earnings growth. Compared to sector averages, Darden's trailing PE of 22.84x trades at a premium to the broader restaurant industry average (typically in the high teens), but this premium is likely justified by its market-leading scale, consistent execution, and strong cash flow generation. The stock's Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.99x and EV-to-Sales of 2.39x provide additional context, suggesting the market values its sales base efficiently. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated; its current trailing PE of 22.84x is above its median level observed in recent historical ratio data (often in the high teens to low 20s), indicating it is trading near the higher end of its historical range, which prices in optimistic expectations for sustained growth and margin stability. The PEG ratio of 5.44, based on trailing metrics, suggests the stock is expensive relative to its historical growth rate, signaling the market is paying a premium for perceived quality and defensive characteristics in a potentially slowing economy.

PE

22.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~24x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

15.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: Darden's financial risk is elevated by its significant leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.70. While manageable given its strong $1.57 billion TTM free cash flow, a sustained downturn could strain its ability to service debt and fund shareholder returns. Operational risks include revenue concentration, with Olive Garden comprising 42% of sales, making the company vulnerable to brand-specific missteps. Furthermore, the quarterly gross margin compression to 17.97% (vs. 21.88% annual) signals vulnerability to food and labor cost inflation, which could pressure the 8.69% net margin if not offset by pricing.

Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a trailing P/E of 22.84x, above typical industry multiples and its own historical median, the stock is priced for perfection. Any earnings disappointment or sector de-rating could trigger a sharp multiple contraction. Competitively, the narrative that casual dining is gaining share from fast-food (as noted in recent news) is a double-edged sword; it presents a growth opportunity but also intensifies competition within the full-service segment. The stock's low beta of 0.627 means it offers less upside in strong bull markets, as evidenced by its -34.48% relative strength vs. the SPY over one year.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a severe consumer recession coupled with persistent inflation. This would lead to a sharp decline in same-store sales, compressing already weakening margins, and potentially jeopardizing the company's ability to maintain its current dividend payout ratio of 62.7%. A chain of earnings misses could trigger analyst downgrades and a derating towards its historical valuation lows. The realistic downside from the current price of $201.07 is approximately -16% to its 52-week low of $169.00, though a break below that level in a severe downturn could see losses extend towards the -25% max drawdown level, implying a potential loss of 25-30%.