TXRH

Texas Roadhouse

$179.77

+1.14%
Jun 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. operates a leading chain of full-service casual dining restaurants, primarily under its flagship Texas Roadhouse brand, with a menu centered on steaks, ribs, and American fare. The company is a well-established market leader in the value-oriented casual dining segment, distinguished by its consistent execution, strong brand loyalty, and a company-operated store model that ensures quality control. The current investor narrative revolves around the company's resilience and ability to gain market share in a competitive environment, as evidenced by recent industry commentary highlighting a consumer rotation towards value-priced sit-down dining, though the stock's performance has been pressured by broader market rotations away from defensive consumer names.

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TXRH 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $179.77
Average Target $179.77
High Target $206.7355
Low Target $152.80450000000002

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Texas Roadhouse's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $233.70 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$233.70

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$144 - $234

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Analyst coverage for TXRH appears limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, indicating this may be a less-followed name among institutional research firms. The consensus sentiment, based on recent institutional ratings, is mixed but leans cautiously positive, with firms like Morgan Stanley (Overweight), BTIG (Buy), Mizuho (Outperform), and Wells Fargo (Overweight) maintaining bullish stances, while Citigroup, Stephens & Co., and Truist Securities hold Neutral or Hold ratings. The average EPS estimate for the period is $10.94, with a low of $10.76 and a high of $11.11, representing a tight range of just 3.3%, which suggests a high degree of consensus on near-term earnings potential despite the limited coverage. The lack of a published average price target in the data, coupled with the low analyst count, implies that while covered analysts have conviction, the stock may suffer from lower visibility and higher volatility due to less frequent institutional commentary and price discovery.

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TXRH Technical Analysis

The stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -7.87%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +24.99% gain, as indicated by a relative strength of -32.86. As of the latest close of $177.75, the price is trading approximately 24% above its 52-week low of $153.83 but remains about 10% below its 52-week high of $197.0, positioning it in the lower-middle of its annual range and suggesting a lack of bullish momentum. Recent momentum shows signs of a potential short-term rebound, with a 1-month price change of +2.26% and a 3-month change of +4.01%, though these gains are modest and have occurred amidst high volatility, with the stock experiencing a maximum drawdown of -21.98% over the observed period. The stock's beta of 0.808 indicates it is about 20% less volatile than the broader market, which has provided some downside cushion but also limited its participation in the recent market rally. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $153.83, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $197.0; a sustained break above the recent highs near $195 could signal a trend reversal, while a failure to hold the $160 level would likely confirm the continuation of the longer-term downtrend.

Beta

0.81

0.81x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$154-$197

Price range past year

Annual Return

-6.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTXRH ReturnS&P 500
1m+1.2%-0.2%
3m+7.1%+14.0%
6m+5.3%+7.8%
1y-6.9%+25.3%
ytd+4.9%+9.2%

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TXRH Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains positive but has decelerated, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.48 billion representing a 3.1% year-over-year increase, a slowdown from the stronger growth rates seen in prior quarters of 2025. The vast majority of revenue, $1.47 billion in the latest period, comes from Food and Beverage sales at company-operated restaurants, with minimal contribution from franchise fees and royalties, highlighting a company-owned operational model. The company is consistently profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $84.6 million and a net margin of 5.7%, though this represents a compression from the 8.1% net margin in Q2 2025, indicating some pressure on bottom-line growth despite top-line expansion. Gross margin for Q4 2025 was 10.7%, a significant sequential decline from 17.6% in Q2 2025, which, alongside a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $730.1 million, suggests potential investments or cost pressures are impacting near-term profitability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29, but strong cash generation is evident from a robust return on equity of 27.8% and a trailing free cash flow of $730 million, providing ample liquidity for dividends, share repurchases, and unit growth without excessive reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.10%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$730067000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Food and Beverage
Franchise fees
Franchise royalties

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Valuation Analysis: Is TXRH Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 27.38x, while the forward PE is 23.24x, indicating the market expects earnings growth, with the forward multiple implying a 15% discount to the trailing figure based on anticipated bottom-line expansion. Compared to sector averages, Texas Roadhouse's trailing PE of 27.38x trades at a premium; for context, the provided data shows a historical PS ratio of 1.89x and a forward PE of 23.24x, but without a direct industry average, the premium is inferred from the stock's historical context and typical casual dining valuations. Historically, the stock's own trailing PE has ranged, with recent quarters showing figures from the low 20s to mid-30s; the current 27.38x is near the higher end of its recent historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in a relatively optimistic outlook for earnings recovery and growth, leaving limited room for multiple expansion.

PE

27.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 17x~35x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

18.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple