Texas Roadhouse
TXRH
$177.38
+12.32%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a prominent operator in the casual dining restaurant industry, known for its Texas Roadhouse concept which offers a menu centered on steaks, ribs, and American fare in a lively, value-oriented atmosphere. The company is widely regarded as a market leader in the casual dining segment, distinguished by its consistent operational execution, strong unit economics, and a cult-like following for its brand experience. The current investor narrative revolves around the stock's recent underperformance relative to the broader market, with debates centering on whether this represents a compelling value opportunity in a high-quality operator or reflects concerns over a potential slowdown in consumer spending within the cyclical restaurant sector, as suggested by recent price weakness and sector rotation news.…
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
$177.38
Related headlines
TXRH 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Texas Roadhouse's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $230.59 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$230.59
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$142 - $231
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for TXRH is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a mid-cap restaurant stock and can lead to higher volatility due to less efficient price discovery. The available institutional ratings from early 2026 show a mix of 'Overweight/Buy' and 'Neutral/Hold' actions, with firms like Morgan Stanley, BTIG, Mizuho, and Wells Fargo maintaining positive ratings, while Citigroup, Stephens, and Truist have neutral or hold stances; notably, Truist downgraded from Buy to Hold in February 2026. Insufficient data is provided to calculate a precise consensus target price or implied upside/downside, as the average target and range are not available in the provided dataset; the wide dispersion in analyst actions (from Outperform to Hold) and the lack of a quantified consensus target signal moderate uncertainty and a lack of strong directional conviction among the covering firms.
Bulls vs Bears: TXRH Investment Factors
The investment debate for Texas Roadhouse centers on a clash between deteriorating fundamentals and a potentially oversold valuation. The bear case currently holds stronger near-term evidence, anchored by severe margin compression (gross margin down 690 bps YoY) and decelerating revenue growth to 3.1%. However, the bull case is supported by the company's exceptional cash generation ($730M TTM FCF) and high-quality metrics like a 27.76% ROE. The single most important tension is whether the dramatic margin pressure is a temporary, industry-wide cost issue or a structural problem that will prevent the company from capitalizing on its historical premium valuation. The resolution of this margin question will determine if the stock's decline to near its 52-week low represents a compelling entry point or a value trap.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generates substantial free cash flow, with $730.1 million over the trailing twelve months. This robust cash generation provides significant internal funding for growth, dividends, and share repurchases without reliance on external financing.
- High Return on Equity: Texas Roadhouse boasts a Return on Equity of 27.76%, indicating highly efficient use of shareholder capital. This metric significantly outpaces typical industry averages and supports a premium valuation for a high-quality operator.
- Valuation Near Historical Lows: The stock's trailing P/E of 27.38x is near the lower end of its own historical range, which has seen multiples in the mid-30s. This suggests the market's growth expectations have moderated, potentially creating a value opportunity if earnings re-accelerate.
- Analyst Forward EPS Growth Implied: The forward P/E of 20.76x is 24% lower than the trailing P/E, implying the market expects earnings growth. This aligns with analyst EPS estimates averaging $10.96 for the coming period, suggesting a forward earnings growth trajectory.
Bearish
- Severe Margin Compression: Profitability has deteriorated sharply, with Q4 2025 gross margin collapsing to 10.7% from 17.5% a year prior, and net margin falling to 5.7% from 8.1%. This indicates significant and potentially persistent cost pressures that threaten the earnings base.
- Revenue Growth Deceleration: Top-line growth has slowed markedly, with Q4 2025 revenue growth of 3.1% YoY representing a significant deceleration from stronger double-digit growth in prior 2025 quarters. This raises concerns about the company's growth trajectory amid consumer spending shifts.
- Persistent Technical Downtrend: The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, down 11.99% over 3 months and 5.07% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500. Trading just 5.2% above its 52-week low of $156 signals weak momentum and bearish sentiment.
- Elevated Valuation vs. Peers: Despite recent declines, the trailing P/E of 27.38x remains above typical restaurant industry averages (often in the low 20s). This premium valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to further multiple compression if growth disappoints.
TXRH Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 11.99% over the past three months and 5.07% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 29.04% and 4.14% over the same respective periods. Trading at a current price of $158.29, the stock sits just 5.2% above its 52-week low of $156.00, positioning it in the lower 5% of its 52-week range ($156.00 - $199.99), which typically signals oversold conditions but also raises the risk of further breakdown if the fundamental outlook deteriorates. Recent momentum remains weak, with the stock down 2.33% over the past month, continuing the negative trajectory seen over the longer periods; this persistent selling pressure, evidenced by a 1-month relative strength of -12.31% versus the SPY, suggests a lack of near-term catalysts to reverse the bearish sentiment. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $156.00, while resistance looms much higher near the 52-week high of $199.99; a decisive break below $156 could trigger accelerated selling, whereas a sustained move above this year's downtrend line would be needed to signal a potential reversal. The stock's beta of 0.896 indicates it has been slightly less volatile than the market during this decline, but its significant underperformance highlights it is facing strong idiosyncratic headwinds.
Beta
0.78
0.78x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$154-$200
Price range past year
Annual Return
+2.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TXRH Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.4% | +9.1% |
| 3m | -7.1% | +6.8% |
| 6m | +7.5% | +9.9% |
| 1y | +2.8% | +30.5% |
| ytd | +3.5% | +8.2% |
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TXRH Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been positive but is showing signs of deceleration; the most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) was $1.48 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 3.1%, which is a slowdown from the stronger double-digit growth rates seen in prior quarters of 2025 (e.g., Q2 revenue of $1.51 billion). The vast majority of revenue, $1.47 billion in the latest period, comes from the core Food and Beverage segment, with minimal contribution from franchise fees and royalties, indicating growth is almost entirely driven by company-operated restaurant performance. Profitability remains robust with the company generating a net income of $84.6 million in Q4 2025 and a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $730.1 million; however, margins have compressed, as the Q4 2025 gross margin of 10.7% and net margin of 5.7% are notably lower than the Q4 2024 gross margin of 17.5% and net margin of 8.1%, pointing to significant cost pressures. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29, indicating a leveraged capital structure, but this is offset by strong cash generation, evidenced by a Return on Equity of 27.76% and a current ratio of 0.50; the latter suggests relatively low liquidity, but the substantial $730 million in TTM free cash flow provides ample internal funding for growth initiatives, dividends, and share repurchases.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.5B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.03%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.10%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$730067000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TXRH Overvalued?
Given the company's consistent profitability (Net Income > 0), the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 27.38x and a forward PE of 20.76x based on estimated EPS; the forward PE being 24% lower than the trailing multiple implies the market expects earnings growth, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $10.96 for the coming period. Compared to sector averages, the valuation presents a mixed picture: the trailing PE of 27.38x is above typical restaurant industry averages (often in the low 20s), suggesting a premium, while the Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.89x and EV/EBITDA of 18.70x are more in line with or slightly above peers for a high-quality operator. Historically, the current trailing PE of 27.38x sits below the stock's own recent historical range, which has seen multiples as high as the mid-30s in 2024 and as low as the high-teens in early 2022; this positioning near the lower end of its own historical band suggests the market's growth expectations have moderated, potentially creating a value opportunity if the company can re-accelerate earnings growth.
PE
27.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 17x~35x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are pronounced, primarily stemming from severe margin compression. The Q4 2025 gross margin of 10.7% represents a 690 basis point collapse year-over-year, directly pressuring net income, which fell despite revenue growth. This compression, if persistent, threatens the company's ability to fund its leveraged capital structure (Debt/Equity of 1.29) and maintain its growth investments. Furthermore, revenue concentration is extreme, with $1.47 billion of the latest $1.48 billion in revenue coming from the core Food and Beverage segment, leaving the company highly exposed to cyclical swings in casual dining demand.
Market & Competitive Risks are elevated due to valuation and sector dynamics. The stock's trailing P/E of 27.38x trades at a premium to typical restaurant peers, creating vulnerability to multiple compression if growth continues to slow. The stock's beta of 0.896 indicates it is less volatile than the market, but its severe underperformance (-34% relative strength vs. SPY over 1 year) highlights strong idiosyncratic selling pressure. Recent news suggests a sector rotation favoring value-oriented casual dining, but this also increases competitive intensity as players like Chili's (noted for 8.6% same-store sales growth) aggressively compete for the same consumer wallet.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a continuation of the current negative trends leading to a full valuation derating. A specific chain of events would be: 1) Q4 margin compression proves not to be an anomaly, with further deterioration in subsequent quarters; 2) revenue growth stalls or turns negative as consumer spending weakens; 3) the market reappraises the stock from a premium growth operator to an average peer, compressing the P/E multiple towards the industry average in the low 20s. The realistic downside is significant, with the stock already testing its 52-week low of $156. A break below this key support could trigger a decline towards the $140-$150 range, representing a potential loss of 10-20% from the current price of $158.29.

