Evercore Partners
EVR
$304.71
-10.51%
Evercore Inc. is a leading independent investment banking advisory firm specializing in merger and acquisition (M&A) and restructuring advisory services, with smaller capital raising, equities trading, and investment management operations. Founded in 1995, it has built a reputation for advising on some of the world's largest and most complex transactions, competing with larger bulge-bracket banks through its conflict-free, high-touch advisory model. The current investor narrative centers on Evercore's ability to sustain strong revenue growth amid a robust M&A cycle, with recent quarterly revenue surging over 100% year-over-year, while also managing margin expansion and returning capital to shareholders. Debate remains around the sustainability of deal flow and the impact of interest rate changes on advisory fees.…
EVR
Evercore Partners
$304.71
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy EVR Today?
Rating: Buy. Thesis: Evercore is a high-quality growth compounder benefiting from a robust M&A cycle, with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and a forward P/E that undervalues its earnings trajectory. The consensus analyst rating is Buy with an average target of $383.60, implying 12.9% upside.
Supporting evidence: Q1 2026 revenue grew 100.4% YoY to $1.40B, operating margin expanded 840 bps to 24.4%, net income rose 106% to $301M, and free cash flow TTM is $1.52B. The forward P/E of 14.6x is below the historical average of 18x, and the PEG ratio of 0.40 suggests undervaluation relative to growth. ROE of 29.1% is nearly double the industry average of ~15%, indicating efficient capital use.
Risks & Conditions: The primary risks are a slowdown in M&A activity, which would reverse revenue growth, and multiple compression if growth decelerates. This Buy would be downgraded to Hold if quarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY or if the forward P/E expands above 20x. The stock appears undervalued relative to its growth prospects and historical valuation, but investors should monitor M&A pipeline and interest rate decisions closely.
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EVR 12-Month Price Forecast
Evercore's fundamental momentum is exceptionally strong, with revenue growth and margin expansion that far exceed industry averages. The forward P/E of 14.6x is undemanding given expected earnings growth, and the analyst consensus is bullish. However, the stock's recent underperformance and high beta warrant caution. The stance is bullish but with medium confidence due to cyclical risks. An upgrade to high confidence would require sustained revenue growth above 50% and continued margin expansion. A downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or if the stock breaks below its 200-day moving average.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Evercore Partners's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $383.60 and implied upside of +25.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$383.60
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+25.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$325 - $435
Analyst target range
Evercore is covered by 10 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 2.0 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $383.60, implying 12.9% upside from the current price of $339.63. The distribution leans bullish, with no sell ratings and a majority of buy/outperform ratings. Recent ratings actions include Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reiterating Outperform (July 10, 2026), and Goldman Sachs maintaining Buy (April 14, 2026), while UBS and Morgan Stanley hold Neutral/Equal Weight stances. The target range spans from $325.00 (low) to $435.00 (high), representing a spread of $110 or 33.9% of the current price. The high target of $435 implies 28.1% upside and likely assumes continued strong M&A activity, margin expansion, and multiple expansion. The low target of $325 suggests 4.3% downside, potentially pricing in a slowdown in deal flow or macroeconomic headwinds. The wide spread indicates moderate uncertainty among analysts, but the overall bullish consensus reflects confidence in Evercore's growth trajectory and competitive position.
Bulls vs Bears: EVR Investment Factors
Evercore presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and strong capital returns. The bull case is supported by a 100%+ revenue surge, operating leverage, and a forward P/E of 14.6x that appears undemanding given expected earnings growth. However, the bear case highlights cyclical M&A risk, recent price underperformance, and a premium valuation relative to peers. The single most important tension is whether the current M&A boom is sustainable: if deal activity remains robust, Evercore's earnings could exceed expectations, driving the stock toward the $435 high target. Conversely, a sharp slowdown in M&A could trigger multiple compression and a decline toward the $325 low target. Currently, the evidence leans bullish due to the strong fundamental momentum and attractive forward valuation, but investors must monitor M&A pipeline and interest rate trends closely.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue surged 100.4% YoY to $1.40B, accelerating from 32.4% growth in Q4 2025 and 18.5% in Q3 2025. This dramatic acceleration signals strong M&A advisory demand and market share gains.
- Significant Operating Leverage: Operating margin expanded from 16.0% in Q1 2025 to 24.4% in Q1 2026, a 840 bps improvement. Net income grew 106% YoY, demonstrating that revenue growth is flowing through to the bottom line.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 14.6x is well below the trailing P/E of 22.3x and the historical average of ~18x, implying the market expects strong earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.40 suggests undervaluation relative to growth.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity: Debt-to-equity of 0.57 and current ratio of 5.80 indicate low financial risk. Free cash flow TTM of $1.52B provides ample capacity for dividends and buybacks (payout ratio 24.4%).
Bearish
- Cyclical M&A Revenue Risk: Evercore's revenue is highly tied to M&A advisory fees, which are cyclical. A slowdown in deal activity could reverse the 100%+ growth rate, as seen historically when M&A cycles turn.
- Recent Price Weakness and Underperformance: Stock is down 3.8% in the past month and 6.2% over 6 months, underperforming SPY by 4.6% and 13.4% respectively. This suggests waning momentum despite strong fundamentals.
- High Beta Amplifies Downside Risk: With a beta of 1.49, Evercore is 49% more volatile than the market. In a broad market selloff, the stock could decline significantly more than the index.
- Valuation Premium to Peers: Trailing P/E of 22.3x is a 49% premium to the capital markets industry median of ~15x. If growth decelerates, this premium could compress, leading to multiple contraction.
EVR Technical Analysis
Evercore is in a broad uptrend, with the stock up 13.0% over the past year, though it has pulled back from its 52-week high of $388.71. Currently trading at $339.63, the stock sits at 87.4% of its 52-week range, indicating it is closer to the high end but has retraced from peak levels. This positioning suggests the stock retains positive momentum but may be facing resistance near the highs, with potential for further consolidation or a breakout if catalysts emerge. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY is -3.5%, underperforming the broader market's 16.5% gain. Short-term momentum has weakened significantly, with the stock declining 3.8% over the past month and 1.4% over the past three months, contrasting with the positive 1-year trend. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback within a longer-term uptrend, or early signs of trend reversal if selling pressure persists. The 1-month relative strength of -4.6% versus SPY confirms recent underperformance. The 52-week low of $265.87 provides a key support level, representing a potential 21.7% downside from current levels, while the 52-week high of $388.71 offers resistance, implying 14.4% upside. A breakout above $388.71 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $265.87 could indicate a deeper correction. With a beta of 1.49, Evercore is 49% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves, which is important for risk management.
Beta
1.49
1.49x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-30.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$266-$389
Price range past year
Annual Return
+0.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EVR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.0% | -1.6% |
| 3m | -5.2% | +1.5% |
| 6m | -13.7% | +5.4% |
| 1y | +0.7% | +14.8% |
| ytd | -13.3% | +7.0% |
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EVR Fundamental Analysis
Evercore's revenue trajectory is strongly accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.40 billion, up 100.4% year-over-year from $699 million in Q1 2025. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior quarter's 32.4% growth (Q4 2025 revenue of $1.30 billion) and from the 18.5% growth in Q3 2025. The Investment Banking and Equities segment drives the vast majority of revenue ($1.37 billion in Q1 2026), while Investment Management contributes a smaller portion ($22.8 million). The robust growth reflects a strong M&A advisory environment and market share gains. Profitability is strong and improving, with net income of $301 million in Q1 2026, up from $146 million in Q1 2025, representing a 106% increase. Gross margin remains exceptionally high at 98.0% (Q1 2026), typical for advisory firms with low cost of goods sold. Operating margin expanded to 24.4% in Q1 2026 from 16.0% in Q1 2025, driven by revenue growth outpacing expense growth. Net margin improved to 21.5% from 20.9% a year ago, indicating effective cost control and operating leverage. Evercore maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57 and a current ratio of 5.80, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $1.52 billion, though Q1 2026 operating cash flow was negative due to working capital changes; however, the company generated $798.6 million in free cash flow in Q4 2025. Return on equity (ROE) is a robust 29.1%, reflecting efficient capital use. The company also returns capital via dividends (yield 0.96%) and share buybacks (payout ratio 24.4%).
Quarterly Revenue
$1.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+100.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
98.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EVR Overvalued?
Since Evercore has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 22.3x, while the forward P/E is 14.6x, a significant discount that implies the market expects strong earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests analysts anticipate a 52.7% increase in earnings per share, consistent with the robust revenue growth trajectory. Compared to the industry average (Financial - Capital Markets), Evercore's trailing P/E of 22.3x is at a premium to the sector median of approximately 15x (based on industry data), representing a 49% premium. This premium is justified by Evercore's superior growth (100%+ revenue growth vs. industry average of ~10-15%), higher margins (operating margin 24.4% vs. industry average ~20%), and strong ROE (29.1% vs. industry average ~15%). Historically, Evercore's trailing P/E has ranged from 4.5x (Q4 2021) to 31.9x (Q2 2023). The current 22.3x is near the middle of this range, suggesting the stock is not excessively overvalued relative to its own history. The forward P/E of 14.6x is below the historical average of ~18x, indicating potential undervaluation if growth materializes as expected.
PE
22.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 4x~32x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Evercore's revenue is heavily concentrated in investment banking advisory fees, which are inherently cyclical and tied to M&A activity. Q1 2026 revenue of $1.40B was up 100.4% YoY, but a downturn in deal flow could cause a sharp reversal. The company's operating margin, while improved to 24.4%, is still sensitive to compensation costs (the largest expense). Although debt-to-equity is low at 0.57, the negative operating cash flow in Q1 2026 ($-? from working capital) highlights potential liquidity timing risks. The payout ratio of 24.4% is conservative, but a sustained earnings decline could pressure dividends and buybacks.
Market & Competitive Risks: Evercore trades at a trailing P/E of 22.3x, a 49% premium to the capital markets industry median of ~15x. This premium is justified by superior growth, but if M&A activity decelerates, multiple compression could erode shareholder returns. The stock's beta of 1.49 implies high sensitivity to market downturns, and its recent 6-month underperformance vs. SPY (-13.4%) suggests investors are already pricing in some caution. Competition from bulge-bracket banks with larger balance sheets could pressure advisory fees, though Evercore's conflict-free model is a differentiator.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sharp economic downturn or spike in interest rates could freeze M&A markets, causing revenue to revert to pre-boom levels (~$700M/quarter). In such a scenario, earnings could fall by 50% or more, and the stock could decline to its 52-week low of $265.87, representing a 21.7% loss from the current price of $339.63. Historically, the stock has a max drawdown of -30.3%, so a decline to $237 would be possible in a severe recession. Investors could face a loss of up to 30% in a prolonged downturn.
FAQ
The primary risk is cyclical M&A slowdown: a recession or rate hikes could cause revenue to decline sharply from the current $1.4B/quarter level. Second, the stock's high beta (1.49) amplifies market downturns, with a potential 30% drawdown as seen historically. Third, valuation risk: the trailing P/E of 22.3x is a 49% premium to peers, leaving room for multiple compression if growth decelerates. Fourth, company-specific risk: negative operating cash flow in Q1 2026 could signal working capital issues if revenue growth slows. The most severe risk is a 21.7% decline to the 52-week low of $265.87, or worse in a prolonged downturn.
The 12-month outlook is bullish with a base case target of $340-$380 (45% probability), assuming M&A activity normalizes and revenue growth moderates to 20-30%. The bull case (30% probability) targets $380-$435, driven by sustained strong M&A and margin expansion. The bear case (25% probability) sees a decline to $265-$325 if a recession hits. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock trades near the analyst average of $383.60, offering 12.9% upside. Key assumptions include continued M&A momentum and stable interest rates.
Evercore's trailing P/E of 22.3x is a 49% premium to the capital markets industry median of ~15x, which may appear overvalued. However, the forward P/E of 14.6x is below the stock's historical average of ~18x, indicating that the market expects strong earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.40 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. Compared to its own history, the current trailing P/E is near the middle of its 5-year range of 4.5x to 31.9x. Overall, the stock appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued given its growth trajectory, but the premium to peers implies that any growth disappointment could lead to multiple compression.
From a risk/reward perspective, Evercore appears attractive for growth-oriented investors. The stock offers 12.9% upside to the average analyst target of $383.60 and 28.1% to the high target of $435, supported by 100%+ revenue growth and expanding margins. The forward P/E of 14.6x is below the historical average, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in the earnings growth. However, the stock is cyclical and has a beta of 1.49, meaning it could decline sharply in a market downturn. It is a good buy for investors with a 12-month horizon who believe M&A activity will remain robust, but it is not suitable for risk-averse investors or those needing stable income.
Evercore is best suited for a medium-to-long-term investment horizon of 12-24 months, aligning with the typical M&A cycle. The stock's high beta (1.49) and recent 6-month underperformance (-6.2%) make it less suitable for short-term trading, as momentum can be erratic. The dividend yield is low (0.96%), so income is not a primary reason to hold. For long-term investors, the company's strong competitive position and capital returns (buybacks) can compound value, but the cyclical nature means holding through downturns requires patience. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to capture the expected earnings growth and analyst target upside.