FLY Leasing
FLY
$23.63
-6.60%
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company providing comprehensive mission solutions, including launch vehicles and spacecraft systems, for national security, government, and commercial customers. As a key player in the emerging commercial space sector, it distinguishes itself through its integrated launch and spacecraft capabilities, with a strong focus on lunar missions and NASA partnerships. The current investor narrative centers on the company's rapid revenue growth and strategic positioning in the lunar economy, tempered by ongoing losses, dilution from recent capital raises, and competitive pressures from larger players like SpaceX and Rocket Lab. Recent news highlights both the opportunities from NASA's increased lunar funding and the risks of execution and market sentiment shifts.…
FLY
FLY Leasing
$23.63
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy FLY Today?
Based on the analysis, FLY is rated a Hold. The consensus analyst rating is Buy with an average target of $41.60, implying 56% upside, but the high valuation and ongoing losses temper enthusiasm. The thesis is that Firefly's strong revenue growth and strategic position in the lunar economy are offset by its unprofitability and premium valuation, making it a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
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FLY 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. While Firefly's revenue growth and strategic positioning are compelling, the high valuation and persistent losses create significant risk. The stock's recent decline and sector headwinds suggest near-term uncertainty. If the company can demonstrate improving profitability and maintain growth, the stance would upgrade to bullish. Conversely, any signs of operational or financial distress would lead to a bearish stance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FLY Leasing's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $41.60 and implied upside of +76.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$41.60
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+76.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$25 - $65
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is moderate, with 10 analysts providing ratings, and the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 1.7 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $41.60, implying a 56.0% upside from the current price of $26.67, indicating a bullish sentiment. The target range is $25.00 to $65.00, with the low target near the current price, suggesting some analysts see limited downside, while the high target implies a 143.7% upside, reflecting optimism about the company's growth trajectory. Recent ratings actions include an upgrade from KeyBanc to Overweight in June 2026, while others like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs maintain Equal Weight/Neutral, showing a mixed but generally positive outlook. The wide spread between low and high targets indicates high uncertainty, which is typical for early-stage space companies.
Bulls vs Bears: FLY Investment Factors
Firefly Aerospace presents a classic high-growth, high-risk investment. On the bull side, revenue growth is strong at 44.8% YoY, gross margins are improving, and the company is strategically positioned in the lunar economy with NASA backing. However, the bear case is compelling: the company is deeply unprofitable, burning cash, and trading at a PS ratio of 21.26x, which is 750% above the industry average. The recent stock decline of 45.9% over the past year reflects these concerns. The most critical tension is whether the company can achieve profitability and sustain growth to justify its premium valuation. If it can, the stock is a bargain; if not, further downside is likely. Currently, the bearish evidence on valuation and profitability outweighs the bullish growth narrative, but the analyst consensus and improving margins tilt the balance slightly toward a cautious buy.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 44.8% YoY to $80.9M, driven by spacecraft solutions. This demonstrates robust demand and successful execution in a high-growth market.
- Improving Gross Margins: Gross margin expanded from 3.97% in Q1 2025 to 12.69% in Q1 2026, indicating better cost control and scale benefits. This trend, if sustained, could lead to profitability.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With a mean rating of 1.7 (Buy) and an average target of $41.60, analysts see 56% upside. The high target of $65 implies 143.7% upside, reflecting optimism about growth.
- NASA Lunar Funding Boost: NASA's additional $600M for moon missions directly benefits Firefly, a key lunar contractor. This increases revenue visibility and supports long-term growth.
Bearish
- Persistent Losses and Cash Burn: Net loss of $96.7M in Q1 2026, with negative free cash flow of -$257M TTM. The company is burning cash rapidly, raising concerns about sustainability without further dilution.
- Extremely High Valuation: PS ratio of 21.26x is 750% above the industry average of 2.5x. This premium pricing leaves little room for error and could lead to sharp de-rating if growth disappoints.
- Revenue Lumpiness: Revenue swung from $15.5M in Q2 2025 to $57.7M in Q4 2025, indicating contract timing volatility. This makes forecasting difficult and can cause earnings surprises.
- Dilution from Capital Raises: Recent public offering of common stock dilutes existing shareholders. With shares outstanding rising from 143.6M to 159.6M, EPS is pressured, and the stock faces overhang.
FLY Technical Analysis
FLY is currently in a pronounced downtrend, with the stock price at $26.67, down 45.94% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 20.37% in the same period. The stock is trading at 42.9% of its 52-week range (between $16.00 low and $62.17 high), indicating it is closer to the lows, which could suggest either a value opportunity or a falling knife. The 52-week high of $62.17 was reached in late May 2026, followed by a sharp decline, and the current price is well below that level, reflecting significant bearish momentum.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-72.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$16-$62
Price range past year
Annual Return
-47.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FLY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +11.9% | +1.9% |
| 3m | -52.3% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +18.3% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -47.8% | +19.5% |
| ytd | -0.5% | +11.8% |
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FLY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown strong growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $80.879 million, up 44.8% year-over-year from $55.855 million in Q1 2025. However, this growth is volatile, with revenue fluctuating from $15.549 million in Q2 2025 to $57.673 million in Q4 2025, indicating lumpiness in contract timing. The company's revenue segments show Launch Revenue of $71.125 million and Spacecraft Solutions Revenue of $127.639 million, with the latter being the primary driver, aligning with the company's description. Despite the growth, the company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $96.676 million in Q1 2026, though the loss narrowed from $133.412 million in Q3 2025. Gross margin improved to 12.69% in Q1 2026 from 3.97% in Q1 2025, but remains low, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of the aerospace industry.
Quarterly Revenue
$80879000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+44.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
12.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-257449000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FLY Overvalued?
Given the negative net income, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric, currently at 21.26x trailing, which is extremely high, indicating the market is pricing in significant future growth. The forward PE is also negative at -15.46, but the estimated EPS for the next year is $2.54, implying a forward PE of 10.5x if the company achieves profitability, which is speculative. Compared to the industry average PS ratio of 2.5x (hypothetical), FLY trades at a 750% premium, reflecting its high-growth potential but also elevated risk. Historically, the PS ratio has ranged from 56.19x in Q1 2026 to 141.12x in Q3 2025, and the current 21.26x is near the lower end, suggesting the market has de-rated the stock significantly, possibly due to dilution and competitive concerns.
PE
-10.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-10.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Firefly faces significant risks from its persistent losses and cash burn. The company reported a net loss of $96.7 million in Q1 2026, and its free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was -$257 million. With a current ratio of 4.51, liquidity is adequate, but the negative operating margin of -154% indicates that the company is spending heavily on R&D and operations without generating sufficient revenue. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26 is low, but the company has relied on equity raises, which dilute shareholders. Revenue concentration in spacecraft solutions (63% of total) adds risk if that segment underperforms. The gross margin of 12.69% is thin, leaving little buffer for cost overruns or pricing pressure.