FRVO

Fervo Energy Company Class A common stock

$25.86

-4.68%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Fervo Energy Company is a geothermal energy developer that builds, owns, and operates geothermal power facilities, leveraging innovations such as horizontal drilling and distributed fiber optic sensing. As a pure-play geothermal company in the regulated electric utility sector, it distinguishes itself through advanced technology that enhances geothermal resource accessibility and efficiency. The stock has recently garnered attention following its IPO in May 2026, with investor focus on its ability to scale operations and execute long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) to drive revenue growth. Market debate centers on the company's path to profitability and the viability of its technology in a competitive renewable energy landscape.

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FRVO 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $25.86
Average Target $25.86
High Target $29.74
Low Target $21.98

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fervo Energy Company Class A common stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $33.62 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$33.62

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$21 - $34

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Four analysts cover Fervo Energy, with consensus estimates for EPS of $0.73 and revenue of $807 million for the next fiscal year. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but the estimated EPS and revenue imply a forward PE of 37x ($27.13 / $0.73), which is high but more reasonable than trailing multiples. The consensus leans bullish, as analysts project profitability within the next year, though the lack of a buy/hold/sell distribution limits sentiment assessment. The implied upside from the current price of $27.13 to the average target (if derived from EPS and a reasonable multiple) would be significant, but without explicit target prices, the upside cannot be precisely calculated. The range of analyst estimates for EPS ($0.66 to $0.75) and revenue ($753 million to $828 million) shows moderate dispersion, indicating some uncertainty about the timing and scale of revenue generation. The high estimate assumes successful project execution and PPA ramp-up, while the low estimate factors in potential delays or cost overruns. The narrow EPS range suggests relatively high conviction among analysts, but the limited coverage (4 analysts) implies the stock is still underfollowed, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery.

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FRVO Technical Analysis

Fervo Energy has been in a sustained downtrend since its IPO, with the current price of $27.13 reflecting a 22% decline from its first close of $36.54 and a 36% drop from its 52-week high of $42.65. The stock is trading at 64% of its 52-week range (from low of $23.10 to high of $42.65), positioning it closer to the low end, which may indicate a potential value opportunity but also reflects persistent selling pressure. The 1-year price change is not available due to the short trading history, but the 52-week range provides context for the stock's volatility since listing. Short-term momentum is decisively bearish, with a 1-month price change of -17.96% and a 3-month change of -25.8% (from $36.54 on May 13 to $27.13). This accelerating decline contrasts with the broader market's positive 1-month return of 4.07% (SPY), resulting in a relative strength of -22.03% over the past month. The consistent lower highs and lower lows suggest strong selling momentum with no signs of reversal, and the volume of 2.97 million shares on July 10 indicates active participation in the decline. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $23.10, a break below which could signal further downside toward $20. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $42.65, and a move above that level would require a fundamental catalyst to reverse the trend. The stock's beta is not provided, but the 44.54% maximum drawdown since listing highlights extreme volatility, far exceeding the S&P 500's typical drawdowns, implying high risk for position sizing.

Beta

Max Drawdown

-44.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$23-$43

Price range past year

Annual Return

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodFRVO ReturnS&P 500
1m-26.5%+1.0%
3m+7.9%
6m+8.5%
1y+20.1%
ytd+9.9%

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FRVO Fundamental Analysis

Fervo Energy's revenue trajectory is nascent, with the most recent quarterly revenue data not available; however, the company's PS ratio of 55,480 suggests minimal revenue relative to market cap. The company is pre-revenue or early-stage, as indicated by a negative net margin of -511% and a gross margin of -3.9%, implying cost of goods sold exceeds revenue. The lack of revenue growth data makes it difficult to assess trajectory, but the negative margins point to significant operating losses as the company scales its geothermal projects. Profitability is absent, with a trailing PE of -108 and a net income loss (EPS of -$0.0092). The operating margin of -354% underscores deep operational inefficiencies typical of a development-stage company. The trajectory toward profitability is uncertain, as the company must achieve commercial-scale operations to cover fixed costs. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 3.17, indicating strong short-term liquidity, but a debt-to-equity ratio of -1.02 suggests negative equity, likely due to accumulated losses exceeding equity. Free cash flow data is unavailable, but the negative PCF ratio of -241 implies negative operating cash flow. ROE of 28.6% is misleadingly positive due to negative equity, not operational strength. The company is likely dependent on external financing (equity or debt) to fund operations, as evidenced by the recent IPO.

Quarterly Revenue

N/A

N/A

Revenue YoY Growth

N/A

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

N/A

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

N/A

Last 12 Months

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Valuation Analysis: Is FRVO Overvalued?

Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 55,480, which is astronomically high and reflects negligible revenue relative to market cap. A forward PS is not available, but the gap between trailing and any potential forward metric would be meaningless without revenue visibility. Compared to the regulated electric industry average PS ratio (typically around 2-3x), Fervo trades at a massive premium, indicating the market is pricing in future revenue growth that has yet to materialize. This premium is not justified by current profitability but by the potential of its geothermal technology and long-term PPAs. Historical valuation data is unavailable due to the stock's recent listing, so a comparison to its own history is not possible. However, the current PS ratio is likely at the extreme high end of any reasonable band, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future revenue generation.

PE

-108.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

N/A

5-Year PE Range 17x~59x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-153.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple