Hecla Mining
HL
$14.33
-1.31%
Hecla Mining Company is a precious metals producer focused on silver, gold, zinc, and lead, operating mines in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. As the largest primary silver producer in the U.S., it holds a distinct competitive position with a diversified asset base including the Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Keno Hill, and Casa Berardi mines. The current investor narrative centers on Hecla's strategic pivot to silver amid AI-driven industrial demand, recent strong Q4 2025 earnings, and the completion of the Casa Berardi sale to Orezone Gold, which streamlines its portfolio and strengthens its balance sheet.…
HL
Hecla Mining
$14.33
Related headlines
HL 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hecla Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $24.08 and implied upside of +68.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$24.08
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+68.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $32
Analyst target range
Hecla is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 2.22 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $24.08, implying a 55.8% upside from the current price of $15.46. The distribution shows 4 Buy ratings, 3 Hold, and 2 Sell, indicating a moderately bullish consensus. Recent actions include upgrades from Canaccord Genuity (Hold to Buy) and reaffirmations from HC Wainwright (Buy) and Scotiabank (Sector Perform), suggesting analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic despite the recent price decline. The target range spans from a low of $17.00 to a high of $32.00, representing a 110% spread from low to high. The high target of $32.00 assumes a return to near the 52-week high, likely pricing in a recovery in silver prices and successful execution of Hecla's growth strategy. The low target of $17.00 still implies 10% upside, suggesting even the most bearish analyst sees limited downside. The wide spread indicates high uncertainty around metal prices and operational execution. With limited coverage (9 analysts), the stock may experience higher volatility and less efficient price discovery compared to larger-cap peers, but the consensus leans bullish with significant upside potential if the company delivers on its growth trajectory.
Bulls vs Bears: HL Investment Factors
Hecla Mining presents a compelling bull case with accelerating revenue growth, expanding margins, strong free cash flow, and a consensus Buy rating with 56% upside. However, the stock faces significant headwinds including a net loss in the latest quarter, a steep price decline from its 52-week high, a high valuation premium to the sector, and heavy reliance on silver prices. The bear case is currently stronger due to the negative technical momentum and the risk that the recent net loss signals deeper operational issues. The single most important tension is whether the company's operational improvements and silver price tailwinds can overcome the tax-driven earnings volatility and restore profitability, which would validate the premium valuation.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating 57% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $411.4M grew 57.4% year-over-year, accelerating from 22.5% in Q2 2025. This rapid top-line growth is driven by strong silver prices and higher production, positioning Hecla as a high-growth metals producer.
- Gross margin expansion to 61.6%: Gross margin surged from 28.3% in Q1 2025 to 61.6% in Q1 2026, reflecting operational leverage and higher metal prices. This dramatic improvement indicates strong cost control and pricing power.
- Strong free cash flow generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $467.3M, providing significant financial flexibility for debt reduction, dividends, or growth investments. This cash generation supports the balance sheet and reduces reliance on external financing.
- Analyst consensus Buy with 56% upside: The average analyst price target is $24.08, implying 55.8% upside from the current $15.46. With 4 Buy ratings and a mean recommendation of 2.22, the consensus is moderately bullish, suggesting significant near-term appreciation potential.
Bearish
- Net loss in Q1 2026 despite revenue growth: Hecla reported a net loss of -$19.0M in Q1 2026, swinging from a $28.9M profit a year earlier, due to a $50.9M income tax expense. This raises concerns about earnings quality and the sustainability of profitability.
- Stock in steep downtrend, down 55% from high: The stock has fallen from a 52-week high of $34.17 to $15.46, a decline of 54.8%. The 3-month change of -19.1% and 1-month change of -7.2% indicate persistent selling pressure and negative momentum.
- High valuation premium to sector: Trailing P/S of 8.79 is 252% above the basic materials sector average of ~2.5x. Even the forward P/S of 3.87 is above the sector median, leaving little room for error if growth disappoints.
- Revenue concentration in silver (72%): Silver contracts account for 72% of revenue, making Hecla highly sensitive to silver price fluctuations. A sustained decline in silver prices could severely impact revenue and margins, as seen in the recent price correction.
HL Technical Analysis
Hecla's stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its 52-week high of $34.17, currently trading at $15.46—just 45% of its 52-week range. The 1-year price change of +153% reflects a massive rally from the 52-week low of $5.62, but the stock has since retraced sharply, indicating a bearish reversal from overbought conditions. The current price near the low end of the range suggests either a value opportunity or continued downside risk, depending on whether the fundamental catalyst for the rally remains intact. Short-term momentum is decisively negative: the 1-month change is -7.2% and the 3-month change is -19.1%, both significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (which gained +0.6% and +6.3% over the same periods). This divergence from the longer-term uptrend signals a potential trend reversal or a deep correction, as the stock has given back nearly half of its 1-year gains. The relative strength metrics confirm severe weakness, with 1-month relative strength of -7.8% and 3-month relative strength of -25.4%, indicating the stock is being sold off aggressively relative to the market. The 52-week high of $34.17 acts as strong resistance, while the 52-week low of $5.62 provides distant support. A break below the recent low of $14.05 (June 10) could accelerate selling toward the $10-12 zone, while a recovery above $20 would suggest a potential bottom. With a beta of 1.291, Hecla is about 29% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves—a key consideration for risk management in a volatile precious metals environment.
Beta
1.29
1.29x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$6-$34
Price range past year
Annual Return
+140.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.8% | +0.3% |
| 3m | -26.7% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -46.0% | +7.5% |
| 1y | +140.8% | +18.4% |
| ytd | -24.1% | +9.0% |
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HL Fundamental Analysis
Hecla's revenue trajectory has been robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $411.4 million representing a 57.4% year-over-year increase, accelerating from the 22.5% growth seen in Q2 2025. The trailing twelve-month revenue run rate is approximately $1.61 billion, driven by strong silver and gold prices and higher production. Revenue is heavily weighted toward silver contracts ($295.6 million in the latest quarter), which accounted for 72% of total revenue, followed by gold ($57.0 million), zinc ($36.9 million), lead ($22.3 million), and copper ($0.4 million). The company swung to a net loss of -$19.0 million in Q1 2026 from a net income of $28.9 million in Q1 2025, despite higher revenue, due to a $50.9 million income tax expense and other charges. However, gross margin improved dramatically to 61.6% in Q1 2026 from 28.3% a year earlier, reflecting higher metal prices and operational leverage. Operating margin also expanded to 55.3% from 20.0%, indicating strong cost control. The net loss is a concern, but the underlying operating profitability (operating income of $227.7 million) suggests the loss is tax-driven and not operational. Hecla maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.106, well below the industry average, and a current ratio of 2.72, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $467.3 million, providing significant financial flexibility. Return on equity stands at 12.4%, reflecting solid profitability on equity, though the Q1 net loss temporarily distorts this metric. The company's ability to generate cash flow internally reduces reliance on external financing, supporting its growth initiatives and dividend.
Quarterly Revenue
$411433000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+57.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$467330000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HL Overvalued?
Given that Hecla reported a net loss in the most recent quarter, the trailing P/E of 39.2 is not meaningful; therefore, we lead with the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. The trailing P/S is 8.79, while the forward P/S (based on estimated revenue of $3.23 billion) is approximately 3.87, implying the market expects significant revenue growth. The gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests aggressive growth expectations baked into the current price. Compared to the basic materials sector average P/S of roughly 2.5x, Hecla trades at a 252% premium, reflecting its status as a high-growth precious metals producer with silver exposure. This premium may be justified by its 57% revenue growth and expanding margins, but it also leaves little room for error. Historically, Hecla's P/S ratio has ranged from about 1.5x to 30x over the past five years. The current trailing P/S of 8.79 is near the midpoint of this range, suggesting it is not at extreme levels. However, the forward P/S of 3.87 is closer to the lower end, indicating that if growth materializes, the stock could be undervalued. The PEG ratio of 0.05 (based on trailing earnings) is misleading due to the recent loss, but if normalized, it would suggest deep value. Overall, the valuation appears stretched on trailing metrics but more reasonable on forward expectations, contingent on sustained metal prices and production growth.
PE
39.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 17x~213x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Hecla's Q1 2026 net loss of -$19.0M, despite a 57% revenue increase, highlights earnings volatility driven by a $50.9M income tax expense. The trailing P/E of 39.2 is distorted by this loss, but the underlying operating income of $227.7M suggests the loss is tax-related. However, the company's reliance on silver for 72% of revenue creates concentration risk; a 10% drop in silver prices could reduce revenue by roughly $29M per quarter. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.106 is low, but the payout ratio of 3.2% indicates limited dividend growth potential.
Market & Competitive Risks: Hecla's beta of 1.291 makes it 29% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside during risk-off periods. The stock has already fallen 55% from its 52-week high, and the forward P/S of 3.87, while lower than trailing, still represents a premium to the sector. Recent news of geopolitical tensions strengthening the dollar has pressured precious metals prices, and the completion of the Casa Berardi sale reduces diversification. The wide analyst target spread ($17-$32) reflects high uncertainty around metal prices and execution.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sustained decline in silver prices below $20/oz, combined with a failure to grow production, could trigger a re-rating to the 52-week low of $5.62, representing a 64% loss from the current price of $15.46. This scenario would likely involve multiple quarters of net losses, analyst downgrades, and a potential dividend cut. The historical max drawdown of -55.83% suggests such a decline is within the realm of possibility.

