Hecla Mining
HL
$20.72
-0.48%
Hecla Mining Company is a precious metals producer focused on silver, gold, zinc, and lead, operating primarily in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with key assets including Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Keno Hill, and Casa Berardi. As the largest primary silver producer in the U.S., Hecla distinguishes itself through its low-cost, long-lived mines and a strategic emphasis on silver, which positions it to benefit from growing industrial demand, particularly from AI and green technologies. The current investor narrative centers on Hecla's robust operational performance, highlighted by a 57% year-over-year revenue surge in Q1 2026, and its strategic divestiture of the Casa Berardi gold mine to streamline its portfolio, while navigating volatile precious metals prices and geopolitical tensions that have caused sharp stock fluctuations.…
HL
Hecla Mining
$20.72
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HL Today?
Based on the analysis, HL is rated a Buy. The thesis is that Hecla's strong revenue growth, margin expansion, and strategic focus on silver will drive earnings growth, justifying the premium valuation. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $23.53, implying 13.6% upside. Supporting evidence includes 57% YoY revenue growth, gross margin improvement to 61.6%, forward PE of 19.5x, and a PEG ratio of 0.05, indicating undervaluation relative to growth. However, the rating is contingent on silver prices remaining firm and the company avoiding further losses. If silver prices weaken or Q2 earnings disappoint, the stock could be downgraded. Overall, HL is fairly valued to slightly undervalued given its growth prospects, but investors should be aware of the high beta and volatility.
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HL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, driven by Hecla's strong operational performance and favorable silver market dynamics. The revenue growth and margin improvement are compelling, but the Q1 net loss and high beta introduce uncertainty. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company returns to profitability in Q2 and silver prices continue to firm. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or if the stock breaks below its 50-day moving average.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hecla Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.38 and implied upside of +12.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.38
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $32
Analyst target range
Hecla is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 2.22), and the average target price is $23.53, implying a 13.6% upside from the current price of $20.72. The distribution includes 5 Buy ratings, 3 Hold/Neutral, and 1 Sell, indicating a bullish but cautious sentiment. The target price range spans from $17.00 (low) to $32.00 (high), with the high target assuming continued silver price strength and successful execution of growth projects, while the low target reflects potential downside from metal price volatility and operational risks. Recent ratings actions show a mix of upgrades and reiterations, with Canaccord Genuity upgrading from Hold to Buy in April 2026, while others maintain neutral stances, suggesting moderate conviction in the stock's upside.
Bulls vs Bears: HL Investment Factors
Hecla presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue momentum, margin expansion, and strategic positioning in silver, but it carries significant risks from valuation premium, earnings volatility, and external market factors. The bull case is supported by robust operational performance and analyst optimism, while the bear case highlights the Q1 loss and high valuation. Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence given the revenue growth and margin improvement, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain its earnings growth to justify the premium valuation. If silver prices remain strong and Hecla executes on its growth projects, the stock could re-rate higher; otherwise, the premium could compress, leading to downside.
Bullish
- Revenue Surge 57% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $411.4M grew 57.4% YoY, driven by higher silver prices and strong operational performance. This acceleration from $261.3M in Q1 2025 to $448.1M in Q4 2025 demonstrates robust demand and pricing power.
- Gross Margin Expansion to 61.6%: Gross margin improved from 28.3% in Q1 2025 to 61.6% in Q1 2026, reflecting higher metal prices and operational efficiencies. This margin expansion significantly boosts profitability potential and cash flow generation.
- Silver Leverage to AI Demand: Silver accounts for 71.9% of revenue, and growing industrial demand from AI and green technologies supports silver prices. Hecla is the largest U.S. primary silver producer, positioning it to benefit from this structural demand trend.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with 13.6% Upside: With 9 analysts, the consensus is Buy (mean rating 2.22), and the average target price of $23.53 implies 13.6% upside from the current $20.72. The high target of $32.00 suggests potential for 54% upside if silver prices strengthen.
Bearish
- Q1 2026 Net Loss of -$19M: Despite strong revenue, Q1 2026 net income was -$19.0M, a sharp contrast to the profitable quarters in 2025. This loss likely stems from higher costs and non-cash charges, raising concerns about earnings quality and volatility.
- Premium Valuation at 39.2x Trailing PE: The trailing PE of 39.2x is 78% above the industry average of 22x. Even with forward PE of 19.5x, the stock is priced for significant earnings growth, leaving little room for disappointment.
- High Beta and Price Volatility: With a beta of 1.335 and a 6-month price decline of -13.7%, the stock is highly sensitive to market and metal price swings. The 52-week range of $7.57 to $34.17 shows extreme volatility, with a max drawdown of -55.8%.
- Geopolitical and Currency Risks: Recent news highlights that geopolitical tensions strengthening the dollar pressured precious metals prices, causing Hecla's stock to fall sharply. Such external factors can rapidly erode investor returns.
HL Technical Analysis
Hecla's stock has exhibited a powerful long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +169.4%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.5% over the same period. The current price of $20.72 sits at 50.5% of its 52-week range (between $7.57 and $34.17), indicating a mid-range position after a substantial rally followed by a correction. This positioning suggests the stock is neither overextended at highs nor at distressed lows, but rather consolidating after a volatile period, with the 6-month change of -13.7% reflecting a pullback from the peak.
Beta
1.33
1.33x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$34
Price range past year
Annual Return
+169.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +32.1% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +22.0% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -13.7% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +169.4% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +9.8% | +12.3% |
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HL Fundamental Analysis
Hecla's revenue trajectory has been robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $411.4 million, representing a 57.4% year-over-year growth, driven primarily by silver (71.9% of revenue) and gold (13.8%), while copper, lead, and zinc contribute smaller amounts. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, from $261.3 million in Q1 2025 to $304.0 million in Q2 2025, $409.5 million in Q3 2025, and $448.1 million in Q4 2025, indicating strong operational momentum. However, Q1 2026 net income was -$19.0 million, a loss that contrasts with the profitable quarters in 2025, likely due to higher costs and non-cash charges, yet the gross margin improved to 61.6% from 28.3% a year ago, reflecting higher metal prices and operational efficiencies.
Quarterly Revenue
$411433000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+57.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$467330000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HL Overvalued?
Given that Hecla's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (EPS of $0.026), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric, with a trailing PE of 39.2x and a forward PE of 19.5x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE implies a doubling of earnings, which is supported by analyst estimates of $0.50 EPS for the next fiscal year. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (from valuation data), Hecla trades at a 78% premium, reflecting its strong growth prospects and silver leverage, but this premium may be justified by its superior revenue growth and improving margins.
PE
39.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 17x~213x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Hecla's Q1 2026 net loss of -$19.0M, despite a 57% revenue surge, signals potential cost pressures or non-cash charges that could persist. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.11, but its reliance on a single commodity (silver) for 71.9% of revenue creates concentration risk. Additionally, the trailing PE of 39.2x implies high earnings expectations, and any miss could lead to multiple compression. The positive free cash flow of $467M TTM provides some cushion, but the Q1 loss highlights earnings volatility.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: Q1 2026 net loss of -$19M, though offset by strong free cash flow of $467M TTM. 2) Market risk: High beta of 1.335 and sensitivity to silver prices, which can cause sharp swings. 3) Competitive risk: Other silver producers may increase supply, pressuring prices. 4) Company-specific risk: Operational issues at mines like Keno Hill could disrupt production. The most severe risk is a silver price crash, which could push the stock down to the 52-week low of $7.57, a -63% downside from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $23.53 (13.6% upside) and a bull case target of $32 (54% upside). The bear case target is $17 (18% downside). The probabilities are 30% bull, 50% base, and 20% bear. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming silver prices remain stable and Hecla continues to grow revenue. Key assumptions include sustained gross margins above 50% and a return to net profitability in Q2 2026.
HL trades at a trailing PE of 39.2x, which is 78% above the industry average of 22x, suggesting it is overvalued on historical earnings. However, the forward PE of 19.5x is below the industry average, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.05 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. Overall, HL is fairly valued to slightly undervalued if the company can deliver the projected EPS of $0.50, but the premium on trailing earnings leaves little room for error.
HL is a good buy for investors with a bullish outlook on silver and a tolerance for volatility. The stock offers a 13.6% upside to the average analyst target of $23.53, and the forward PE of 19.5x is reasonable given the expected earnings growth. However, the Q1 2026 net loss and high beta (1.335) mean significant downside risk, with the 52-week low at $7.57. For long-term investors who believe in silver's industrial demand story, HL could be a rewarding addition, but it is not suitable for risk-averse investors.
HL is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) given its growth potential and leverage to silver's industrial demand. The stock's high beta (1.335) and 6-month volatility (-13.7% change) make it risky for short-term trading. However, for traders, the stock's 1-month change of +32% shows it can offer quick gains if timed well. For long-term investors, the company's low debt, improving margins, and strategic focus on silver provide a solid foundation. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out metal price cycles.