HRL

Hormel

$20.76

+1.37%
Apr 14, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Hormel Foods Corporation is a leading branded food company operating in the Consumer Defensive sector, primarily within the Packaged Foods industry. Historically focused on meat, the company has broadened its portfolio to include a diverse range of protein offerings, encompassing both perishable and shelf-stable products under iconic brands like Hormel, Spam, Jennie-O, and Planters. The current investor narrative centers on a strategic pivot away from volatile commodity segments, as evidenced by the recent divestiture of its whole-bird turkey business, and a focus on higher-margin, value-added proteins to drive steadier growth amidst a challenging environment of record cattle prices and shifting consumer demand.

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HRL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $20.76
Average Target $20.76
High Target $23.874
Low Target $17.646

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hormel's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $26.99 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$26.99

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$17 - $27

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Analyst coverage for Hormel is limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a less-followed large-cap name which can contribute to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available data shows a consensus leaning towards a neutral to slightly bullish stance, with recent institutional ratings including 'Overweight' from JP Morgan and Barclays, 'Neutral' from B of A Securities and Piper Sandler, and a 'Buy' from Goldman Sachs, though no explicit price targets are provided in the dataset to calculate implied upside or downside. The wide range in estimated EPS for the forward period, from a low of $1.59 to a high of $1.71, reflects significant uncertainty and debate among the few covering analysts regarding the company's near-term earnings power and the successful execution of its strategic turnaround.

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HRL Technical Analysis

The stock is entrenched in a pronounced and sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -29.28%, significantly underperforming the broader market. As of the latest close at $20.87, the stock is trading just 1.2% above its 52-week low of $20.62, positioning it at the very bottom of its 52-week range; this suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, presenting a potential value opportunity but also signaling a lack of any positive momentum. The short-term momentum is decisively negative, with the stock down 9.38% over the past month and 10.16% over the past three months, confirming the acceleration of the longer-term downtrend rather than offering any sign of divergence or reversal. The stock's beta of 0.358 indicates it is far less volatile than the market, yet its severe underperformance, with a 1-year relative strength of -58.80% versus the S&P 500, highlights its unique, company-specific headwinds. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $20.62 and formidable resistance at the 52-week high of $31.86; a decisive break below the $20.62 support could trigger a new leg down, while any recovery would need to overcome significant overhead supply, starting with the recent breakdown level in the mid-$23s from early March.

Beta

0.36

0.36x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-35.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$20-$32

Price range past year

Annual Return

-32.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHRL ReturnS&P 500
1m-8.3%+4.9%
3m-15.2%+0.6%
6m-12.6%+5.1%
1y-32.0%+28.8%
ytd-11.2%+1.8%

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HRL Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is anemic and inconsistent, with the most recent Q1 FY26 revenue of $3.03 billion representing a modest 1.29% year-over-year increase, following a volatile pattern that included a 6.8% sequential decline from the prior quarter's $3.19 billion. The growth is primarily driven by the Retail Segment, which contributed $1.85 billion in the latest quarter, while the Foodservice and International segments, at $998 million and $181 million respectively, show more muted performance. Profitability metrics are under pressure, as evidenced by a net income of $181.8 million in Q1 FY26, which translates to a thin net margin of 3.95%, and a gross margin of 15.61% that has compressed from levels above 16% seen in prior quarters, indicating ongoing cost and pricing challenges. The company's balance sheet and cash flow generation remain a relative strength, with a healthy current ratio of 2.47, a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, and robust trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $577.5 million, which provides ample liquidity to fund the dividend and strategic initiatives despite the operational headwinds.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.0B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.01%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.15%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$577532000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is HRL Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio stands at 27.31x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 13.28x; this substantial gap implies the market expects a sharp recovery in earnings over the next twelve months, likely pricing in the benefits of strategic divestitures and margin improvement initiatives. Compared to sector averages, Hormel's trailing PE of 27.31x likely represents a premium to many packaged food peers, which typically trade in the low-20s range; this premium is currently unjustified by its sluggish growth and margin compression, but the forward multiple suggests the market anticipates a normalization. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 27.31x is above its own 5-year average, which has often fluctuated in the low-20s, indicating the stock is not cheap on an absolute historical basis and that the market may still be pricing in a return to prior profitability levels that have yet to materialize.

PE

27.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -58x~36x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

15.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure