MKC

McCormick & Company

$49.96

-0.46%
Jul 24, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
McCormick & Company is the world's leading manufacturer of spices, herbs, seasonings, and flavorings, operating in the packaged foods industry with iconic brands like Old Bay, Frank's RedHot, and French's. As a dominant player in the global flavor market, McCormick is pursuing a transformative $45 billion acquisition of Unilever's food division (including Knorr and Hellmann's) to create a $20 billion flavor giant, shifting from a spice-focused portfolio to a broader refrigerated and pantry staples business. The deal has sparked intense investor debate, with concerns over integration risk, debt, and dilution weighing on the stock despite the long-term strategic rationale of diversifying into faster-growing emerging markets and capturing significant cost synergies.

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MKC 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $49.96
Average Target $49.96
High Target $57.45
Low Target $42.47

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on McCormick & Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $60.62 and implied upside of +21.3% versus the current price.

Average Target

$60.62

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+21.3%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$52 - $75

Analyst target range

McCormick is covered by 13 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean score 2.13 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $60.62, implying 21.3% upside from the current price of $49.96. The distribution leans bullish, with recent ratings from Barclays (Equal Weight), Bernstein (Outperform), UBS (Neutral), TD Cowen (Buy), Deutsche Bank (Buy), and JP Morgan (Overweight) indicating a generally positive but cautious sentiment. The target range spans from $52.00 (low) to $75.00 (high), a wide spread of $23.00 reflecting high uncertainty around the Unilever deal. The high target of $75 assumes successful integration, cost synergies, and multiple expansion, while the low target of $52 prices in execution missteps, margin compression, or a prolonged downturn. The wide range suggests analysts have divergent views on the deal's outcome, and the stock's volatility is likely to remain elevated until more clarity emerges.

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MKC Technical Analysis

McCormick is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock down 30.1% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 16.5%. The current price of $49.96 sits at just 67.7% of its 52-week range (low $44.82, high $73.84), indicating it is trading near the bottom of its range. This positioning suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, potentially offering a value opportunity if the fundamental outlook improves, but also risks further downside if negative catalysts persist. The stock's beta of 0.626 indicates it is less volatile than the market, which may provide some downside protection but also limits upside participation in broad market rallies.

Beta

0.63

0.63x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-41.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$45-$74

Price range past year

Annual Return

-30.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMKC ReturnS&P 500
1m+5.0%+1.4%
3m-3.0%+3.3%
6m-17.8%+6.3%
1y-30.1%+16.0%
ytd-25.7%+8.4%

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MKC Fundamental Analysis

McCormick's revenue grew 16.7% year-over-year to $1.94 billion in the most recent quarter (Q2 2026), driven by the Consumer segment ($1.14 billion) and Flavor Solutions ($794 million). However, the multi-quarter trend shows deceleration from 18.8% growth in Q2 2025 and 20.1% in Q1 2025, suggesting the pace is slowing. The pending Unilever acquisition is expected to significantly boost revenue but also introduces integration risk and potential dilution. The company is profitable with net income of $160 million in Q2 2026, though net margin compressed to 8.3% from 10.5% a year ago, partly due to higher interest expenses ($62.7 million) and acquisition-related costs. Gross margin improved to 40.2% from 37.5% in the prior-year quarter, indicating better cost management, but operating margin fell to 14.3% from 14.8%, reflecting increased SG&A spending. McCormick's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, manageable but elevated due to the Unilever deal financing. Free cash flow was strong at $337 million in Q2 2026, and the company generated $1.16 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing ample coverage for dividends and debt service. Return on equity (ROE) stands at 13.8%, indicating efficient capital use, though the current ratio of 0.70 suggests some liquidity pressure.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.9B

2026-05

Revenue YoY Growth

+16.7%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

40.2%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Consumer
Flavor Solutions

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Valuation Analysis: Is MKC Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. McCormick trades at a trailing P/E of 22.6x and a forward P/E of 15.1x, a 33% discount that implies the market expects significant earnings growth from the Unilever acquisition. The forward P/E of 15.1x is below the industry average of 18.5x (based on packaged foods peers), representing a 18% discount, which may reflect skepticism about the deal's execution. Historically, McCormick's trailing P/E has ranged from 20x to 35x over the past five years; the current 22.6x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history. This low valuation could indicate a value opportunity if the acquisition delivers on its promises, but it also signals that the market is pricing in substantial risk.

PE

22.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 20x~41x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple