SJM

The J.M. Smucker Company

$0.00

+1.42%
May 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
The J.M. Smucker Company is a leading packaged food manufacturer operating in the Consumer Defensive sector, with a portfolio centered on iconic brands in coffee (Folgers, Dunkin'), pet food (Milk-Bone, Meow Mix), and frozen handhelds/spreads (Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables). The company is a dominant player in its core categories, leveraging strong retail relationships and brand equity, a position recently bolstered by the strategic acquisition of Hostess Brands to expand its snack and convenience store presence. The current investor narrative is dominated by the integration of the Hostess acquisition and its impact on financials, as evidenced by recent quarterly volatility in profitability, alongside broader concerns about consumer spending pressures and the company's ability to navigate input cost inflation while maintaining market share.

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SJM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $103.36
Average Target $103.36
High Target $118.86399999999999
Low Target $87.856

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The J.M. Smucker Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

1 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage appears limited based on the provided data, with only one analyst providing estimates for EPS and revenue, which is insufficient to derive a meaningful consensus recommendation or target price. The wide target range implied by the single analyst's estimates—with EPS between $10.87 and $11.43 and revenue between $9.34B and $9.72B—alongside the minimal number of covering firms, signals high uncertainty and typically reflects a stock with limited institutional interest. This lack of coverage can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, making the stock more susceptible to company-specific news and macro sentiment shifts rather than structured analyst debate.

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SJM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -9.44%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 27.43% gain. Currently trading at $101.91, the price sits approximately 22% above its 52-week low of $88.25 and 15% below its 52-week high of $119.39, positioning it in the lower-mid range of its annual band, suggesting potential value but within a clear bearish structure. Recent momentum shows a short-term bounce, with a 1-month gain of 6.44%, which contrasts sharply with the 3-month decline of -7.67%; this divergence suggests a possible technical relief rally or mean reversion within the broader downtrend, rather than a confirmed reversal. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $88.25, while resistance looms near the 52-week high of $119.39; a breakdown below support would signal an acceleration of the bear trend, while a sustained move above the recent high of $116.00 (from February 26) is needed to challenge the primary downtrend. The stock's beta of 0.245 indicates it is approximately 76% less volatile than the broader market, which, combined with a max drawdown of -23.95%, suggests it has exhibited defensive characteristics but has still experienced significant peak-to-trough declines.

Beta

0.24

0.24x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-23.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$88-$119

Price range past year

Annual Return

-7.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSJM ReturnS&P 500
1m+8.8%+4.4%
3m-6.4%+8.5%
6m-2.1%+9.7%
1y-7.7%+28.8%
ytd+7.0%+9.3%

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SJM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is modest but positive, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $2.34 billion representing a 7.02% year-over-year increase; however, segment data reveals a mixed picture, as U.S. Retail Coffee ($1.03B) is the clear growth driver, while U.S. Retail Pet Foods ($417M) and Consumer Foods ($454M) contribute smaller shares, indicating reliance on a single large category. Profitability is highly volatile and currently negative, with Q3 net income at -$724.2 million and a gross margin of 35.77%, a sharp deterioration from the prior quarter's net income of $241.3 million and gross margin of 33.56%; this swing into deep loss is primarily driven by significant 'other expenses' ($1.12B in Q3), likely related to acquisition integration or impairment, masking underlying operating income which was positive at $473.6 million. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.28, but cash flow generation remains a strength, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $971.2 million and positive operating cash flow of $558.5 million in the latest quarter, providing ample liquidity to service debt, fund dividends, and support the business despite the reported net losses.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.3B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.07%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.35%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$971200000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

U.S. Retail Pet Foods
U.S. Retail Coffee
U.S. Retail Consumer Foods
Sweet Baked Snacks

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Valuation Analysis: Is SJM Overvalued?

Given the negative trailing net income of -$724.2 million, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 1.42, while the forward PE (based on estimated EPS) is 10.29, indicating the market expects a return to profitability, but the current sales multiple suggests a modest valuation for the revenue base. Compared to sector averages, specific industry comps are not provided in the data, but the stock's EV-to-Sales of 2.04 and forward PE near 10x are generally in line with or below typical packaged food peers, suggesting it is not trading at a significant premium despite its brand portfolio. Historically, the current PS ratio of 1.42 is near the lower end of its own range observed in recent quarters, where it has traded as high as 5.77 (Q4 2025) and as low as 1.42 currently; this positioning near historical lows suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, potentially offering a value opportunity if profitability normalizes as forecasted.

PE

-10.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -123x~55x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-128.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple