Huron Consulting Group
HURN
$149.96
-1.19%
Huron Consulting Group Inc. is a professional services firm that provides expertise in technology, operations, advisory services, and analytics through three operating segments: Healthcare, Education, and Commercial. The Healthcare segment, which generates the majority of revenue, helps healthcare organizations transform and innovate their delivery models to improve patient outcomes and population health. Huron is a niche player in the consulting industry, distinguished by its deep focus on healthcare and education sectors, where it leverages domain expertise to drive operational and technological change. Currently, the stock is attracting attention due to a dramatic recovery from a sharp drawdown, with a 57.5% surge in the past month, likely driven by strong earnings or strategic announcements, though the broader narrative includes questions about sustainability and valuation after such a volatile period.…
HURN
Huron Consulting Group
$149.96
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HURN Today?
Based on the analysis, HURN is rated a Buy. The unanimous Strong Buy consensus from analysts, with an average target of $189.25, implies a 24.7% upside, and the forward PE of 14.3 is attractive if the projected earnings growth materializes. The company's strong ROE of 19.9% and operating margin of 11.7% support the growth narrative, and the recent 57.5% surge indicates positive momentum.
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HURN 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on HURN, driven by the attractive forward valuation and strong profitability metrics. The expected earnings growth, if realized, would justify the current price and offer significant upside. However, the confidence is medium due to the extreme volatility and the reliance on a massive EPS jump from $0.03 to $10.22. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company delivers a strong earnings beat and raises guidance, while a downgrade to neutral would occur if earnings miss or the debt situation worsens.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Huron Consulting Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $190.75 and implied upside of +27.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$190.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+27.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$160 - $215
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with only 4 analysts covering HURN, and the consensus recommendation is 'strong buy' with a mean score of 1.2. The average target price is $189.25, implying an upside of 24.7% from the current price of $151.77. The distribution is bullish, with no hold or sell ratings, indicating strong conviction among the few analysts. The target price range is $160 to $215, with a spread of $55, reflecting moderate uncertainty. The high target of $215 implies a 41.7% upside, suggesting expectations of continued recovery and strong earnings growth, while the low target of $160 still represents a 5.4% upside, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees value. The wide range suggests that while sentiment is positive, there is uncertainty about the pace of growth and market conditions. Given the limited coverage, investors should be aware that the stock may have higher volatility and less efficient price discovery compared to larger-cap names.
Bulls vs Bears: HURN Investment Factors
Huron presents a compelling recovery story with strong analyst conviction and a forward valuation that appears reasonable if the expected earnings growth materializes. However, the extreme volatility, high leverage, and reliance on a massive EPS jump introduce significant risk. The bull case is currently stronger, supported by a unanimous Strong Buy rating and a 24.7% upside to the average target, but the bear case hinges on the sustainability of growth and the ability to manage debt. The most critical tension is whether Huron can deliver the projected earnings growth (from $0.03 to $10.22 EPS) without facing margin compression or operational setbacks, as any shortfall could trigger a sharp correction given the stock's volatile history.
Bullish
- Strong Buy consensus with 24.7% upside: All 4 analysts rate HURN a Strong Buy (mean score 1.2), with an average target of $189.25, implying 24.7% upside from the current $151.77. Even the lowest target of $160 offers 5.4% upside, reflecting broad conviction in the recovery.
- Forward PE of 14.3 suggests undervaluation: With a trailing PE of 28.7 and forward PE of 14.3, the market expects EPS to more than double from $0.03 to $10.22. This growth is already priced in at a reasonable multiple, especially for a consulting firm with strong margins.
- Strong profitability and returns: Huron boasts a 19.9% ROE and 8.6% ROA, indicating efficient use of capital. Operating margin of 11.7% and net margin of 6.2% are healthy for the consulting industry, supporting sustainable earnings growth.
- Revenue growth expected to continue: Estimated revenue for next fiscal year is $1.92 billion, reflecting growth from the current base. The healthcare segment, which generates the majority of revenue, benefits from ongoing digital transformation and operational efficiency demands.
Bearish
- Extreme volatility and drawdown risk: HURN experienced a max drawdown of -51.4% over the past year, and the current price is still 18.7% below its 52-week high of $186.78. Such volatility indicates high risk and potential for further sharp declines.
- High debt-to-equity ratio: With a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, Huron carries significant leverage. This increases financial risk, especially if revenue growth stalls or interest rates remain elevated, potentially straining cash flows.
- Earnings quality concerns: Trailing EPS of $0.03 is extremely low, and the forward EPS of $10.22 implies a massive jump that may be overly optimistic. If earnings fail to meet these expectations, the stock could face significant de-rating.
- Limited analyst coverage: Only 4 analysts cover HURN, which can lead to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. The wide target range of $160 to $215 reflects uncertainty about the company's growth trajectory.
HURN Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for HURN over the past year is a recovery from a significant decline, with the stock currently trading at $151.77, up 14.9% from a year ago. However, the stock has experienced extreme volatility, with a 52-week range of $84.88 to $186.78, and the current price sits at approximately 81% of the 52-week range, indicating a rebound from the lows but still below the highs. The 1-year price change of +14.9% masks a turbulent path, including a max drawdown of -51.4%, suggesting that the stock has been in a high-risk, high-reward phase. The current price is well above the 52-week low of $84.88, but still 18.7% below the 52-week high of $186.78, positioning it in a recovery zone with potential resistance overhead.
Beta
0.07
0.07x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$85-$187
Price range past year
Annual Return
+22.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HURN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +54.3% | +1.7% |
| 3m | +13.4% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -9.4% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +22.9% | +21.9% |
| ytd | -12.3% | +11.1% |
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HURN Fundamental Analysis
Huron's revenue trajectory appears to be growing, as indicated by the estimated revenue for the next fiscal year of $1.92 billion, though specific quarterly revenue figures are not available in the provided data. The company's net margin is 6.18%, and gross margin is 29.94%, which are typical for consulting firms that rely on human capital. The operating margin of 11.73% suggests healthy operational efficiency, but the lack of historical quarterly data limits the ability to assess growth acceleration or deceleration. The company is profitable, with a trailing EPS of $0.0348, though this is low, and forward EPS estimates are $10.22, implying significant expected earnings growth. The ROE of 19.87% is strong, indicating effective use of equity capital, while ROA of 8.58% is solid. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, which is moderate, and a current ratio of 1.17, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow data is not provided, but the PCF ratio of 15.6 suggests reasonable cash flow generation relative to market cap. Overall, Huron appears financially healthy, with profitability and manageable leverage, though the high debt-to-equity warrants monitoring.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is HURN Overvalued?
Given that Huron is profitable, the primary valuation metric selected is the PE ratio. The trailing PE is 28.72, while the forward PE is 14.33, indicating that the market expects substantial earnings growth, as reflected in the forward estimates. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that earnings are expected to more than double, which is a positive signal but also implies high expectations. Compared to the industry average (not provided), Huron's forward PE of 14.33 appears reasonable for a consulting firm, but without industry benchmarks, it's hard to quantify the premium or discount. The PS ratio of 1.78 and EV/Sales of 1.94 are moderate, and the PEG ratio is negative due to negative earnings growth expectations, which is unusual and may indicate a data anomaly. Historically, without historical ratio data, it's challenging to assess whether the current valuation is at the high or low end of its own range, but the forward PE suggests the market is pricing in significant growth.
PE
28.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Huron's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, indicating moderate to high leverage. This debt burden could become problematic if revenue growth slows or interest rates rise, increasing interest expenses and reducing net income. The company's current ratio of 1.17 suggests adequate liquidity, but it is not overly strong, leaving limited buffer for unexpected cash needs. Additionally, the trailing EPS of $0.03 is exceptionally low, and the forward estimate of $10.22 implies a massive earnings jump that may be unrealistic; if the company fails to achieve this, the stock could face severe de-rating. The operating margin of 11.7% is healthy, but any cost overruns or project delays in consulting engagements could compress margins and hurt profitability.
FAQ
The key risks include: (1) financial risk from a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise; (2) earnings risk, as the trailing EPS of $0.03 is extremely low and the forward estimate of $10.22 may be overly optimistic; (3) market risk, as the stock has a beta of 0.12 but has shown extreme volatility, with a max drawdown of -51.4%; and (4) competitive risk from larger consulting firms. The most severe risk is a failure to meet earnings expectations, which could lead to a significant de-rating and a potential decline to the 52-week low of $84.88.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case probability of 50% targeting $189.25 (24.7% upside), a bull case probability of 30% targeting $215 (41.7% upside), and a bear case probability of 20% targeting $160 (5.4% upside). The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes the company achieves the average analyst EPS estimate of $10.22. If earnings disappoint, the stock could fall to the 52-week low of $84.88, but the consensus is positive.
Based on the forward PE of 14.3, HURN appears undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth, especially when compared to its trailing PE of 28.7. The PS ratio of 1.78 and EV/Sales of 1.94 are moderate for a consulting firm. However, the PEG ratio is negative due to negative earnings growth expectations, which is unusual and may indicate a data anomaly. The market is pricing in significant growth, and if that growth does not occur, the stock could be considered overvalued. Overall, the valuation is reasonable if the earnings estimates are met, but it is not a deep value stock.
HURN appears to be a good buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance, given the unanimous Strong Buy rating from analysts and a 24.7% upside to the average target of $189.25. The forward PE of 14.3 is attractive if the projected earnings growth materializes, and the company's strong ROE of 19.9% supports the growth narrative. However, the stock's extreme volatility and high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04 introduce significant risk. It is a good buy for those who believe in the earnings recovery and can withstand potential drawdowns, but not for risk-averse investors.
HURN is more suitable for long-term investment, given its growth potential and the expected earnings recovery. The stock's beta of 0.12 indicates low market correlation, but its high volatility (max drawdown -51.4%) makes it risky for short-term trading. The company pays no dividend, so returns depend on capital appreciation. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to allow the earnings growth to materialize and the stock to reach its target price. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the volatility, but the risk is high.