Itron
ITRI
$87.00
+0.09%
Itron Inc is a technology company providing solutions that measure, manage, and analyze energy and water use, operating within the Hardware, Equipment & Parts industry. The company is a key player in the smart infrastructure and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) space, offering a complete suite of products including smart meters, network infrastructure, and data management software. The current investor narrative is dominated by a significant stock price correction following its Q3 2025 earnings report, which has shifted focus towards the company's execution and growth trajectory amidst a challenging demand environment, as evidenced by recent analyst rating adjustments and a sharp decline in share price from its highs.…
ITRI
Itron
$87.00
Related headlines
ITRI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Itron's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $113.10 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$113.10
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$70 - $113
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage data is available to form a robust consensus view; the data indicates only one analyst providing revenue estimates, with no EPS or price target data provided. This limited coverage is typical for a mid-cap company like Itron and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery as institutional interest may be more muted. The available institutional ratings show recent activity, with a notable downgrade from Guggenheim from 'Buy' to 'Neutral' on February 17, 2026, and an upgrade from Baird from 'Neutral' to 'Outperform' on February 18, 2026, indicating mixed and evolving sentiment among the few covering firms following the company's recent financial updates and stock price movement.
Bulls vs Bears: ITRI Investment Factors
The evidence presents a classic battle between valuation/quality and growth/momentum. The bear case is currently stronger on a near-term momentum basis, driven by concrete revenue contraction, a severe technical downtrend, and high volatility. However, the bull case presents a compelling counter-argument based on deep value, strong profitability, and financial resilience. The single most important tension is whether the company's robust margins and cash flow can be sustained if the revenue decline persists or accelerates. If Itron can stabilize its top line, the current valuation offers significant upside; if revenue continues to fall, even its strong profitability may not prevent further multiple compression.
Bullish
- Strong Profitability & Margins: Q4 2025 net income surged to $101.6 million, yielding a robust net margin of 17.78%, a significant improvement from 11.28% in Q3. The trailing twelve-month operating margin of 13.48% and ROE of 17.54% demonstrate efficient capital allocation and strong underlying profitability despite revenue headwinds.
- Compelling Valuation Metrics: The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 13.96x, near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting undervaluation relative to its own past. The PEG ratio of 0.54, based on trailing earnings, indicates the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth rate, offering a potential margin of safety.
- Robust Financial Health: The company boasts a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75 and a current ratio of 1.80, indicating manageable leverage and good liquidity. Strong free cash flow generation of $381 million over the trailing twelve months provides ample flexibility for operations and strategic initiatives.
- Technical Support & Recent Recovery: The stock is trading at 69% of its 52-week range ($83.51-$142), closer to its lows, which may represent a value zone. A 7.23% gain over the past month suggests a potential bottoming process after a severe 25% six-month decline, indicating waning selling pressure.
Bearish
- Revenue Contraction & Deceleration: Q4 2025 revenue declined 6.72% year-over-year to $571.7 million, marking a clear deterioration in top-line growth. Sequentially, revenue has fallen from $607.2 million in Q1 2025, indicating a persistent softening of demand in its core markets.
- Severe Price Downtrend & High Volatility: The stock is down 25.05% over six months and has underperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 32 percentage points over the same period. With a beta of 1.499 and a maximum drawdown of 39.4%, the stock exhibits high volatility and significant downside risk, eroding investor confidence.
- Mixed & Limited Analyst Sentiment: Analyst coverage is sparse, with only one firm providing revenue estimates and no consensus price target, leading to less efficient price discovery. Recent rating actions are mixed, with a downgrade to 'Neutral' from Guggenheim and an upgrade to 'Outperform' from Baird, reflecting uncertainty post-earnings.
- Vulnerability to Further Demand Weakness: The sharp price drop from $138 to $108 on October 30, 2025, aligns with its Q3 earnings release, highlighting extreme sensitivity to growth execution. The core investment narrative has shifted to focus on the company's ability to navigate a 'challenging demand environment,' posing a fundamental risk.
ITRI Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for ITRI is a pronounced downtrend, with the stock down 25.05% over the past six months and 4.68% over the past year. The current price of $98.43 sits at approximately 69% of its 52-week range ($83.51 to $142.00), indicating it is trading closer to its lows than its highs, which may suggest a value opportunity but also reflects significant negative momentum and investor pessimism. Recent momentum shows a modest short-term recovery, with the stock up 7.23% over the past month, which contrasts sharply with the longer-term downtrend. This divergence could signal a potential bottoming process or a temporary relief rally within a broader bearish structure, especially as the 3-month change remains negative at -1.61%. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $83.51, while resistance looms at the 52-week high of $142.00. A sustained breakdown below $83.51 would signal a continuation of the downtrend, while a move above the recent recovery highs near $105 would be needed to suggest a more durable reversal. The stock's beta of 1.499 indicates it is approximately 50% more volatile than the broader market, a critical factor for risk management given its recent price swings and the 39.4% maximum drawdown.
Beta
1.50
1.50x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-39.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$79-$142
Price range past year
Annual Return
-20.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ITRI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.6% | +12.2% |
| 3m | -12.3% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -20.2% | +4.7% |
| 1y | -20.3% | +29.2% |
| ytd | -7.9% | +4.4% |
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ITRI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue trajectory shows signs of deceleration and recent contraction. For Q4 2025, revenue was $571.66 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 6.72%. Examining the quarterly trend, revenue has sequentially declined from $607.15 million in Q1 2025 to the latest $571.66 million, indicating softening demand. Segment data shows Product revenue of $474.33 million and Service revenue of $97.33 million for the latest period, though growth rates are not provided. The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $101.63 million and a net margin of 17.78%. Gross margin for the quarter was healthy at 39.73%, and the trailing twelve-month operating margin is 13.48%. Profitability has shown improvement on a quarterly basis, with net income rising from $65.41 million in Q3 2025 to over $100 million in Q4, suggesting effective cost management or favorable one-time items. The balance sheet and cash flow position appear solid. The company has a current ratio of 1.80 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75, indicating manageable leverage. It generated robust free cash flow of $381.03 million over the trailing twelve months and an ROE of 17.54%, demonstrating an ability to fund operations and growth internally while delivering solid returns to equity holders.
Quarterly Revenue
$571657000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.06%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.39%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$381026000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ITRI Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 13.96x, while the forward PE is slightly higher at 14.30x; the minimal gap suggests the market expects roughly stable earnings in the near term. Compared to its own historical range, the current trailing PE of 13.96x is near the lower end of its multi-year spectrum, which has seen ratios well above 20x and even into negative territory during loss-making periods. This positioning near historical lows could indicate the stock is undervalued relative to its own history, or that the market is pricing in a deterioration in its growth profile. A peer comparison for industry averages is not available in the provided data, preventing a direct sector premium/discount analysis. However, the PEG ratio of 0.54, based on trailing metrics, suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate, a potentially compelling signal if the growth is sustainable.
PE
14.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -458x~654x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks center on the sustainability of profitability amid declining sales. While net margins improved to 17.78% in Q4, this was against a revenue base that shrank 6.72% YoY. The risk is that cost-cutting has limits, and continued revenue pressure—evidenced by the sequential decline from $607M to $572M over 2025—will eventually erode the impressive bottom-line results. The company's dependence on utility capex cycles for its smart infrastructure products makes revenue visibility challenging.
Market & Competitive Risks are pronounced given the stock's high beta of 1.499, making it 50% more volatile than the market and susceptible to broad growth stock sell-offs. Trading at a forward P/E of 14.3x, while low historically, lacks a clear peer benchmark; should sector multiples compress further, ITRI could face valuation headwinds despite its cheapness. The stock has dramatically underperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 40 percentage points over the past year, indicating severe sector or company-specific de-rating that may not be complete.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a continuation of the demand slowdown, triggering analyst downgrades and a loss of investor confidence in the long-term growth story. This could lead to a re-test and break below the 52-week low of $83.51. Given the 39.4% maximum drawdown already experienced, a realistic adverse scenario could see the stock fall an additional 15-20% from current levels to the $78-$83 range, representing a total potential loss of approximately -20% from the current price of $98.43.