Jacobs Engineering Group
J
$143.40
-0.53%
Jacobs Solutions Inc. is a global provider of engineering, design, procurement, construction, and maintenance services, alongside cyber engineering and security solutions, serving industrial, commercial, and government clients across water, transportation, healthcare, technology, and chemicals end markets. The firm is a scaled, established player in the Engineering & Construction industry, employing roughly 43,000-60,000 people and generating approximately $12 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, with a market capitalization near $17.8 billion. The current investor narrative is dominated by a sharp divergence between reported GAAP results and adjusted expectations: the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026, ended March 2026) posted a GAAP net loss of $45.9 million and negative EBITDA of $33.3 million, yet revenue grew 26.95% year-over-year to $3.69 billion, and consensus forward EPS estimates sit near $11.43. This tension — strong top-line momentum and a healthy forward earnings outlook against a headline loss and negative quarterly free cash flow — is the central debate, compounded by the company's ongoing portfolio transformation (including the PA Consulting segment) and a dividend yield of roughly 0.86%.…
J
Jacobs Engineering Group
$143.40
J 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Jacobs Engineering Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $162.53 and implied upside of +13.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$162.53
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+13.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$144 - $181
Analyst target range
Coverage is solid with 15 analysts, and sentiment leans bullish: the consensus recommendation is "buy" with a recommendation mean of 1.94 (where 1.0 is a strong buy), and the average target price is $162.53. Against the current price of $143.40, that implies upside of approximately +13.3%, a meaningful but not spectacular expected return. The distribution of recent institutional ratings is constructive — RBC Capital reiterated Outperform, Citigroup reiterated Buy, and Keybanc maintained Overweight — though Truist, Wells Fargo, and Baird remain neutral, indicating the bullish case is not unanimous.
The target range spans $144.00 to $181.00, a spread of $37 (roughly 26% of the low target), which signals moderate-to-high uncertainty. The low target of $144.00 is essentially at the current price, implying that even the bear case sees limited downside and that the stock is fairly valued at worst; the high target of $181.00 assumes successful execution on the earnings recovery, margin expansion, and likely multiple re-rating toward the upper end of the historical PE band. Notably, the low target being above the current price is a rare configuration that suggests analysts collectively view the recent pullback as a buying opportunity, though the absence of recent upgrades (most actions are reiterations) means there is no fresh catalyst-driven conviction. The estimated EPS average of $11.43 and revenue average of $11.60 billion underpin the forward PE of 17.36x, and the wide EPS range ($10.08 to $12.26) reflects uncertainty around the timing of the margin recovery.
Bulls vs Bears: J Investment Factors
The bull case rests on strong revenue growth (26.95% YoY), a low forward PE of 17.36x, and analyst targets implying 13.3% upside, while the bear case highlights a recent quarterly loss, margin compression, and negative free cash flow. The most critical tension is whether the Q2 FY2026 loss is a one-time event or a sign of deeper operational issues; if it proves transient, the stock is undervalued, but if it recurs, the forward earnings estimates are at risk. Currently, the bear evidence appears slightly stronger due to the magnitude of the loss and cash flow deterioration, but the bull case is supported by the low forward multiple and analyst optimism. The resolution of this debate will likely hinge on the next quarterly report and management's ability to restore profitability.
Bullish
- Robust top-line growth: Q2 FY2026 revenue surged 26.95% year-over-year to $3.695 billion, accelerating from $2.910 billion in Q2 FY2025. This growth is driven by the Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities segment ($3.336 billion) and PA Consulting ($358.6 million), demonstrating broad-based demand.
- Attractive forward valuation: The forward PE of 17.36x is near the low end of the historical 19x-40x range, while the PS ratio of 1.48x is well below the 4x-5.6x seen in 2024-2025. This suggests the market is pricing in skepticism that may be overdone if earnings normalize.
- Analyst consensus upside: With 15 analysts covering, the consensus rating is 'buy' (mean 1.94) and the average target price is $162.53, implying 13.3% upside from $143.40. Notably, the lowest target of $144.00 is essentially at the current price, indicating limited perceived downside.
- Strong balance sheet and cash flow: The company holds $1.488 billion in cash, has a manageable debt-to-equity of 0.744, and generated $484.1 million in trailing free cash flow. The dividend payout ratio of 52.7% is sustainable, and the current ratio of 1.30 indicates adequate liquidity.
Bearish
- Recent quarterly loss and negative EBITDA: Q2 FY2026 posted a net loss of $45.9 million (EPS -$0.34) and negative EBITDA of $33.3 million, a stark reversal from Q1 FY2026 net income of $133.2 million and EBITDA of $300.1 million. This volatility raises questions about earnings predictability.
- Margin compression and weak profitability: Gross margin fell to 21.51% in Q2 from 23.24% in Q1 and 24.31% in Q4 FY2025. The trailing net margin is only 2.41% and operating margin 7.18%, thin for an engineering firm, indicating limited cushion for cost overruns.
- Negative free cash flow and working capital drain: Q2 FY2026 free cash flow was -$504.9 million due to a $501.1 million working-capital drain and $1.596 billion of debt repayment. While TTM FCF is positive at $484.1 million, the quarterly volatility is concerning.
- Elevated trailing valuation metrics: The trailing PE is 61.87x and price-to-book is 4.88x, both high relative to historical norms and the company's ROE of 7.97%. The PEG ratio is negative, and the PCF ratio of 25.86x reflects depressed cash flow.
J Technical Analysis
Jacobs is in a recovery uptrend that has stalled in recent weeks, with the stock at $143.40 after a 1-year decline of 4.16% but a 3-month gain of 18.54%. The current price sits at approximately 60% of the 52-week range (low of $105.68, high of $168.44), meaning it is neither near its highs nor its lows — a neutral-to-constructive positioning that suggests the stock has repaired much of its earlier damage but has not yet reclaimed momentum leadership. The 6-month change of +11.65% and YTD gain of +5.95% confirm the intermediate trend has turned higher even as the trailing 12-month picture remains negative.
Short-term momentum has decelerated sharply: the 1-month change is -2.69%, a stark reversal from the +18.54% 3-month gain, and the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 1.73 percentage points over the past month (relative strength of -1.73). This divergence — a strong 3-month trend against a negative 1-month print — signals a temporary pullback or consolidation within an uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal, especially since the 1-year relative strength of -19.17 reflects the stock's earlier underperformance rather than current weakness. Volume of roughly 2.14 million shares and a short ratio of 3.75 days suggest no acute short-squeeze dynamic, but the recent drift lower from the August high of $151.98 to $143.40 warrants caution.
Key technical levels are well defined: support rests at the 52-week low of $105.68, with intermediate support near the September low of $140.53, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $168.44 and nearer-term at the August peak of $151.98. A breakout above $152 would signal renewed momentum and likely target the $168 area, whereas a breakdown below $140 would put the 3-month uptrend at risk and expose the stock to a retest of the $120s. With a beta of 0.679, Jacobs is roughly 32% less volatile than the broader market, which argues for larger position sizing tolerance but also means the stock may lag in strong risk-on rallies — an important consideration given the max drawdown of -34.77% over the past year.
Beta
0.68
0.68x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$106-$168
Price range past year
Annual Return
-4.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | J Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.7% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +18.5% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +11.6% | +16.6% |
| 1y | -4.2% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +5.9% | +11.7% |
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J Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing robustly but unevenly: Q2 FY2026 revenue of $3.695 billion rose 26.95% year-over-year, a sharp acceleration from the $2.910 billion reported in Q2 FY2025 and above the $3.294 billion in Q1 FY2026. The Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities segment is the dominant driver at $3.336 billion, while PA Consulting contributes $358.6 million, meaning the core engineering business carries the growth burden. However, the multi-quarter trend is volatile — revenue dipped to $3.154 billion in Q4 FY2025 before rebounding — and the 26.95% YoY growth rate is flattered by comparison against a weak prior-year base, so investors should scrutinize whether this pace is sustainable or a one-quarter anomaly.
Profitability is the key concern: Q2 FY2026 produced a net loss of $45.9 million (EPS of -$0.34) and negative EBITDA of $33.3 million, a dramatic swing from Q1 FY2026 net income of $133.2 million and EBITDA of $300.1 million. Gross margin compressed to 21.51% in Q2 from 23.24% in Q1 and 24.31% in Q4 FY2025, while the trailing net margin is just 2.41% and the operating margin 7.18% — thin for an engineering services firm but not atypical given the pass-through nature of construction revenue. The Q2 loss appears driven by a $130.6 million pre-tax loss and a $49.4 million negative other-income line, suggesting non-operating or one-time charges rather than core operating deterioration, since operating income was -$81.2 million but gross profit remained positive at $794.9 million.
The balance sheet is leveraged but manageable: debt-to-equity stands at 0.744, the current ratio is 1.30, and ROE is 7.97% with ROA of 4.55%. Free cash flow is the weak spot — TTM FCF is $484.1 million, but Q2 FY2026 free cash flow was -$504.9 million due to a $501.1 million working-capital drain and $1.596 billion of debt repayment, though the company still held $1.488 billion in cash at quarter-end. The dividend payout ratio of 52.7% and yield of 0.86% are covered by full-year cash generation, but the negative quarterly FCF and reliance on working-capital swings mean the company's internal funding capacity is uneven, and the $219.8 million of stock repurchases in Q2 further pressure liquidity.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+27.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
21.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$484092000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is J Overvalued?
Because trailing net income is positive on a TTM basis (EPS of $0.0163), the PE ratio is the primary metric, but it is distorted: the trailing PE is 61.87x while the forward PE is 17.36x, an enormous gap that implies the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery. The forward PE of 17.36x is far more representative of normalized earnings power, and the gap between trailing and forward multiples signals that analysts expect EPS to inflect from near-zero to roughly $11.43, a trajectory that hinges on the Q2 loss being non-recurring.
Relative to the Industrials/Engineering & Construction sector, Jacobs trades at a premium on asset-based metrics but a discount on earnings: the price-to-book ratio is 4.88x, price-to-sales is 1.48x, and EV/EBITDA is 20.75x, while the forward PE of 17.36x is reasonable for a company with mid-single-digit margins and cyclical end markets. The PEG ratio of -0.99 is meaningless given the negative earnings base, and the PCF ratio of 25.86x reflects depressed cash flow. The premium on book value (4.88x) is difficult to justify given ROE of just 7.97%, suggesting the market is pricing in future margin expansion and growth rather than current returns.
Historically, Jacobs' PE has ranged from roughly 12.7x (Q4 FY2022) to over 500x during loss quarters, with a more typical band of 19x-40x in profitable periods; the current trailing PE of 61.87x is elevated versus that band, but the forward PE of 17.36x sits near the low end of the historical range. The PS ratio of 1.48x is well below the 4x-5.6x range seen through 2024-2025, reflecting the revenue base expansion and the stock's underperformance. This combination — low forward PE and low PS relative to history — suggests the market is pricing in either a value opportunity or skepticism about the sustainability of the earnings recovery, with the truth likely depending on whether Q2's loss proves transient.
PE
61.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 13x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. The company's Q2 FY2026 net loss of $45.9 million and negative EBITDA of $33.3 million highlight earnings volatility, while gross margin compression to 21.51% from 24.31% in Q4 FY2025 signals pricing or cost pressures. The negative free cash flow of -$504.9 million in Q2, driven by a $501.1 million working-capital drain, raises concerns about liquidity management, especially with a debt-to-equity of 0.744 and $1.596 billion of debt repayment in the quarter. Additionally, the dividend payout ratio of 52.7% may strain cash flow if earnings do not recover.
Market and competitive risks include the stock's high trailing valuation (PE 61.87x, P/B 4.88x) which could compress if earnings disappoint. The beta of 0.679 indicates lower volatility, but the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 19.17% over the past year, and sector rotation away from industrials could pressure the shares. Competitive pressures in engineering and construction, particularly in the Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities segment, could erode margins if the company cannot pass through cost increases. Regulatory changes or delays in government infrastructure spending could also impact revenue.
The worst-case scenario would involve a sustained earnings downturn, perhaps due to project delays, cost overruns, or a recession reducing demand. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $105.68, representing a 26.3% decline from the current price of $143.40. If analyst estimates are cut and the forward PE compresses to 12x on lower EPS, the downside could be even greater. The max drawdown over the past year was -34.77%, indicating that a similar decline could occur, potentially taking the stock to around $93.50, though the 52-week low provides a more immediate support level.

